Preview 2022 draft prospects

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To be fair Boyd near on won a norm Smith in Bulldogs first flag in 70 odd years.

An elite kpf doesn't need to be the best in a draft he just needs to become the elite focal point for your team that opponents fear and struggle to contain.

How many mids that don't go top 5 are best in their draft very very few...
Without doubt that was the absolute best game of his career and he seemed to play better in the ruck. However, those games were rare. Obviously he struggled mentally as well, so who knows how much that was a factor.
 
I think Manic is struggling with the concept of height being completely irrelevant v wingspan and leap for a KPF.

Like you I don’t really know Cadman enough to be commenting on him as a prospect, but what I can comment on is that the fascination of 197cm being KP and 194cm not is ******* bonkers. If the 197cm guy has a 190cm wingspan and no leap he’s next door to useless against a guy like Moore. If the 194cm guy has an elite vertical and 200cm wingspan he’s more a KPF type that can impact v the modern KPD.

That’s before you even get to competitiveness, personality and workrate…
Not enough is made of this in AFL profiles. Should talk reach height, not head height
 

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Not enough is made of this in AFL profiles. Should talk reach height, not head height
Until they make it to the AFL and realise that their long arms just don't cut it. Wingspans are for Birds. Your knuckles could scrape the ground as you walk but that doesn't make you a better player. I assume we're using Cadman as the example? At 194cm and and slightly longer arms won't make any difference against defenders who are taller and probably have long arms also. All this is based on one player being Curnow, who is a freak of nature.
 
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They both have their strengths. I wouldn’t say that Wright is an amazing junior talent spotter, Hine has him covered there, but as a list manager GW has Hine covered by the length of the Flemington straight.
I’d rate him as below average. His record at Hawthorn as head recruiter was sub par and he probably wouldn’t have survived in that capacity if it weren’t for the full set of circumstances (Hawthorn’s established group, Clarkson as coach and the limited quality of picks available). As a recruiter Hine>>>>>GW.
 
Until they make it to the AFL and realise that their long arms just don't cut it. Wingspans are for Birds. Your knuckles could scrape the ground as you walk but that doesn't make you a better player. I assume we're using Cadman as the example? At 194cm and and slightly longer arms won't make any difference against defenders who are taller and probably have long arms also. All this is based on one player being Curnow, who is a freak of nature.
Well if long arms don't cut it that means short arms do, makes sense.
 
If that's the way you saw it then I can't help you.
I think you've well and truly established you're not great at evaluating talent and today we have the gem long arms don't cut it at AFL level and 'wingspans are for birds', you just keep digging that hole deeper. What you could have said at the start is Matt Jefferson is a talented player and he'll be in demand somewhere in the first round but all we get is more nonsense trying to justify your poor judgement, gotta have those short arms! 😆
 
I doubt Derek Hine is picking our next players. I think Wright and McRae have a big say. Interesting to hear others thoughts.

Hine just narrows it down to several.

In the past Ed and Bucks had a say.


I may not have a clue but this is what I think.
Hine effectively gets final say doesn’t he? After listening to coach’s requirements and GW feedback on proposed draftees.
 
I think you've well and truly established you're not great at evaluating talent and today we have the gem long arms don't cut it at AFL level and 'wingspans are for birds', you just keep digging that hole deeper. What you could have said at the start is Matt Jefferson is a talented player and he'll be in demand somewhere in the first round but all we get is more nonsense trying to justify your poor judgement, gotta have those short arms! 😆
So far, all you've done is try and ridicule other people who have a different opinion than you. Here it is , I spent nearly 7 years volunteering at an under 18 club. I worked in player development while I was there. My cousin is head talent identifier at that club. I spent many years with with the talent scouts at that club. Prior to that I played over 300 games and coached for 8 years. I played 80 games in the old VFA. You sound like a 15yo school kid when you give your draft analysis but that's just me, maybe others might give you a bit more credibility but I am struggling to see anything from you other than what you read in the media. Now, does this make me a better judge of talent than you, probably not, but it's my opinion and I'm sorry it cuts you so deep
 
I doubt Derek Hine is picking our next players. I think Wright and McRae have a big say. Interesting to hear others thoughts.

Hine just narrows it down to several.

In the past Ed and Bucks had a say.


I may not have a clue but this is what I think.

Re the bolded, Ed was rumoured to have had more influence than he should in bringing players like Beams #2 back to the club. But if he had any say in drafting - the mind is very boggled!!
 

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For those dreaming of us selecting a key forward prospect with one of our draft selections I thought I'd take a look at what the original price was for the leading tall/key forward goal scorer at each club this season.

Adelaide - Taylor Walker pick 75 (NSW scholarship program) 2007 national draft
Brisbane - Joe Daniher pick 10 (father / son selection) 2010 national draft
Carlton - Charlie Curnow pick 12 2015 national draft

Collingwood - Brody Mihocek pick 22 2018 rookie draft
Essendon - Peter Wright pick 8 2014 national draft
Fremantle - Rory Lobb pick 29 2013 national draft
Geelong - Tom Hawkins pick 41 (father / son selection) 2006 national draft
Gold Coast - Mabior Chol pick 30 2016 rookie draft
Greater Western Sydney - Jesse Hogan pick 2 2012 mini draft
Hawthorn - Mitch Lewis pick 76 2016 national draft
Melbourne - Ben Brown pick 47 2013 national draft
North Melbourne - Nick Larkey pick 73 2016 national draft
Port Adelaide - Todd Marshall pick 16 2016 national draft
Richmond - Tom Lynch pick 11 2010 national draft
St Kilda - Max King pick 4 2018 national draft
Sydney - Lance Franklin pick 5 2004 national draft
West Coast - Josh Kennedy pick 4 2005 national draft
Western Bulldogs - Aaron Naughton pick 9 2017 national draft


Quick summation.

11 out of the 18 players were first round or equivalent selections.
To date 4 out of those 11 players have been part of a premiership winning team.
Only 1 of the other 7 were taken in the 2nd round of a national draft.
To date only 1 player of the 7 not selected in the first round have been part of a premiership.
2016 provided a bumper crop with 4 players taken that year becoming their sides leading tall/key forward goal scorer in 2022.
What about the first RD talls who have failed eg Schache, Patton, Watts.
Unless you add this to the analysis, then IDK any meaningful conclusions can be made.
 
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Wow, I’d love to get him with our 3rd pick. So smooth!

Saw him live in the Academy game vs our VFL team. Was probably one of the most impressive of the kids that day.
Had some family issues that apparently forced him to move home to Tiwi early in season from his Adelaide school

Probably an Essendon master plan so he falls outside pick 40
 
Until they make it to the AFL and realise that their long arms just don't cut it. Wingspans are for Birds. Your knuckles could scrape the ground as you walk but that doesn't make you a better player. I assume we're using Cadman as the example? At 194cm and and slightly longer arms won't make any difference against defenders who are taller and probably have long arms also. All this is based on one player being Curnow, who is a freak of nature.

Curnow is a freak.but so too is Ben King to be that agile at his height, and times that by ten with Buddy. Hawkins combination of strength and agility is freakish. Lockett likewise. Gaz Sr - enough said. Dunstable went from stationary to flat chat in the blink of on eye. When Richo was on song it was like watching a 14 year old playing under 12s, etc. The best kpf prospects are freaks.

The distance from the ground to the top of someone's head, when standing flat footed upright and stationary, gives a general indicator of someone's suitability for a role, but it's a really rough, inaccurate indicator.
 
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Without doubt that was the absolute best game of his career and he seemed to play better in the ruck. However, those games were rare. Obviously he struggled mentally as well, so who knows how much that was a factor.

I'd say the mental side was a massive part had performance anxiety which leads to weirdly not wanting the ball so as to not be seen to stuff up.

He was in an a interview recently about his mental health and early retirement recently.

Imo the big dollar contract and subsequent big expectations were his ultimate undoing.


He was marking everything at CHF and kicking Goals that day looked every bit the player that everyone thought he'd become. Sadly you are right it was one of the few in his career.

If you never draft them then you are guaranteeing you don't get them though unless you can talk one into coming as FA which means overpaying in either cap or draft picks AND cap.

Home grown products tend to sign on for less then poaching and bidding wars.
 
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Re the bolded, Ed was rumoured to have had more influence than he should in bringing players like Beams #2 back to the club. But if he had any say in drafting - the mind is very boggled!!

Only thing I've heard re Ed and the list management is Beams and Grundy contracts.

He wouldn't have had any input into drafting.
 
They both have their strengths. I wouldn’t say that Wright is an amazing junior talent spotter, Hine has him covered there, but as a list manager GW has Hine covered by the length of the Flemington straight.

How do we know that though? with GW taking over when they went for Scully, Omeara, Patton etc and traded out of draft after draft to do it.

Not saying he is bad or good or indifferent just interested in people's confidence in him when evidence to date at Hawks suggests otherwise.
 
If that happed STK NGA Cameron Mackenzie and Tsatas will be available at pick 9/10 we should see if we can get Carltons pick 10.
If we had pick 10, what would you want for it?
I don't think our future first is going to cut it unless Carlton really want to give up selecting a good player for a later pick next year.
 
How do we know that though? with GW taking over when they went for Scully, Omeara, Patton etc and traded out of draft after draft to do it.

Not saying he is bad or good or indifferent just interested in people's confidence in him when evidence to date at Hawks suggests otherwise.
He started as list manager at Hawthorn in 2011. Wright was the person responsible for bringing Shaun Burgoyne, David Hale, Josh Gibson, Jack Gunston, Jonathan Simpkin and Brian Lake to the club, who were all key elements (some moreso than others obvs) to their 3peat.
While you’re right that he also oversaw the recruitment of Scully, O’Meara, Patton etc, it could also be argued that the talent ID was solid, but the wisdom of bringing in those players who had significant injury issues and assuming they could rectify them as they did with Burgoyne, was misguided.
As an aside, the only one of those players you listed that cost them significant draft capital was JOM. The other two were taken for token picks as salary dumps, which Hawthorn could afford to take on through good salary cap management, which GW was also responsible for.
 
Re the bolded, Ed was rumored to have had more influence than he should in bringing players like Beams #2 back to the club. But if he had any say in drafting - the mind is very boggled!!
Ed was a control freak. Stick his nose in everywhere. Still love him and what he did for us in his first few years. Saved the club and we now have the best facilities in footy. Overstayed his tenure.
Screwed up with Mick Malthouse succesion plan. Oh well..

I don't mind our new President because he's more low key in the media..
 
If we had pick 10, what would you want for it?
I don't think our future first is going to cut it unless Carlton really want to give up selecting a good player for a later pick next year.
We currently can’t trade our future 1st. I don’t personally see Carlton moving.
 

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