Preview 2022 draft prospects

[Scodog10]

He started as head of recruiting and list manager at Hawthorn in 2011. Wright was the person responsible for bringing Shaun Burgoyne, David Hale, Josh Gibson, Jack Gunston, Jonathan Simpkin and Brian Lake to the club, who were all key elements (some moreso than others obvs) to their 3peat.
While you’re right that he also oversaw the recruitment of Scully, O’Meara, Patton etc, it could also be argued that the talent ID was solid, but the wisdom of bringing in those players who had significant injury issues and assuming they could rectify them as they did with Burgoyne, was misguided.
As an aside, the only one of those players you listed that cost them significant draft capital was JOM. The other two were taken for token picks as salary dumps, which Hawthorn could afford to take on through good salary cap management, which GW was also responsible for.

EFA. Minor I know, but when talking pro scouting v jnr talent ID I think it’s worth noting. Across the 7 drafts he was in charge he had six genuine hits (Hill, Sicily, Moore, Hardwick, Burton and Lewis) and five maybes (O’Brien, Howe, Worpel, Pittonet and Koschitzke) from 44 “live” picks. I feel like I’ve been generous there as well, but it’s pretty subjective. I’d personally much prefer Hine’s record.

 

[No SPIN]

Then you need to also add all the players not listed who are quality fwds.

not really - the case being made is that successful talls are largely first Rounders.
But in the absence of looking at ALL Talls taken in the First RD, then the analysis has no relativilty.

It may well be that there's a very poor strike rate taking Talls in the first RD.

 

[sr36]

EFA. Minor I know, but when talking pro scouting v jnr talent ID I think it’s worth noting. Across the 7 drafts he was in charge he had six genuine hits (Hill, Sicily, Moore, Hardwick, Burton and Lewis) and five maybes (O’Brien, Howe, Worpel, Pittonet and Koschitzke) from 44 “live” picks. I feel like I’ve been generous there as well, but it’s pretty subjective. I’d personally much prefer Hine’s record.

You never really know which individual is responsible for what, but even in terms of List Management, Hawthorn's was mixed during his time there. Fantastic topping up to finish off those awesome teams, but then a high risk stategy to re-build through previously highly rated juniors who were going cheap for various issues, which has been a failure and has left the Hawks in pretty poor shape in my opinion

 

[Apex36]

You never really know which individual is responsible for what, but even in terms of List Management, Hawthorn's was mixed during his time there. Fantastic topping up to finish off those awesome teams, but then a high risk stategy to re-build through previously highly rated juniors and going cheap for various issues, which has been a failure and has left the Hawks in pretty poor shape in my opinion

You have to wonder how much of the latter was influenced by the coach too. A directive to find players to fill gaps in order to stay at the top rather than concentrate on the draft could have had a significant impact.
As it stands, the only list manager who’s managed to pull that kind of feat off is Wells. It will be interesting to see how Mackie fares compared to him in the next few years. My bet is not so well. He would have eroded a lot of the good this trade period, will that Wells built up over the years through fair trading with other clubs.

 

[Scodog10]

not really - the case being made is that successful talls are largely first Rounders.
But in the absence of looking at ALL Talls taken in the First RD, then the analysis has no relativilty.

It may well be that there's a very poor strike rate taking Talls in the first RD.

I can guarantee with absolute certainty that the hit rate on 1st Rd talls is way out in front of talls drafted outside the 1st Rd. I think we’re all on the same page that drafting tall early isn’t necessarily going to be met with success, but it’s much more likely than drafting tall late.

From a Collingwood perspective Gordon, Thoolen, Paine, Perham, Richmond, Casey-Leigh, Wyatt, McCarthy, McLarty, McMahon and Kelly should be all the evidence need. Cox and Mihocek are the only successes we’ve had from our remarkable persistence with speculating on talls at the draft.

 

[Apex36]

I can guarantee with absolute certainty that the hit rate on 1st Rd talls is way out in front of talls drafted outside the 1st Rd. I think we’re all on the same page that drafting tall early isn’t necessarily going to be met with success, but it’s much more likely than drafting tall late.

From a Collingwood perspective Gordon, Thoolen, Paine, Perham, Richmond, Casey-Leigh, Wyatt, McCarthy, McLarty, McMahon and Kelly should be all the evidence need. Cox and Mihocek are the only successes we’ve had from our remarkable persistence with speculating on talls at the draft.

On the flip side, the talls we’ve selected early in the last 20 years:
Reid
Brown
Moore (FS)
Dawes*

All hits.


*Pick 30 is obviously subjective as an early pick.

 

[sr36]

You have to wonder how much of the latter was influenced by the coach too. A directive to find players to fill gaps in order to stay at the top rather than concentrate on the draft could have had a significant impact.
As it stands, the only list manager who’s managed to pull that kind of feat off is Wells. It will be interesting to see how Mackie fares compared to him in the next few years. My bet is not so well. He would have eroded a lot of the good this trade period, will that Wells built up over the years through fair trading with other clubs.

Sydney too, but the academy has probably played as big a role as list management. Even with the Cats, either fantastic fitness programs or luck with longevity has played a big part. We tend to try to pin it all on one man way too much.

 

[Scodog10]

You never really know which individual is responsible for what, but even in terms of List Management, Hawthorn's was mixed during his time there. Fantastic topping up to finish off those awesome teams, but then a high risk stategy to re-build through previously highly rated juniors who were going cheap for various issues, which has been a failure and has left the Hawks in pretty poor shape in my opinion

I actually didn’t mind the list management work through that period, but yeah there are variables which I highlighted with the context around GW’s time as a recruiter yesterday. The values of the senior coach can contribute significantly. I think it’s often forgotten with Hine when they question his talent ID on talls.

 

[Apex36]

Sydney too, but the academy has played a big part.

Yeah, Sydney have been kissed on the dick with their academy. No way you can attribute their success to only the list manager with the amount of free hits they’ve had since the academy system was introduced.

 

[SchuPie]

We currently can’t trade our future 1st. I don’t personally see Carlton moving.

100% agree

 

[sr36]

I actually didn’t mind the list management work through that period, but yeah there are variables which I highlighted with the context around GW’s time as a recruiter yesterday. I think the values of the senior coach can contribute significantly. I think it’s often forgotten with Hine when they question his talent ID on talls.

I think that's likely to have been his list management as opposed to his recruiting - a rigid best available approach using criteria that weren't adjusted enough for the circumstances of the list. The reality is that unless you are specifically targetting talls, they don't generally represent as good or as dependable bets in the draft. So a best available approach that isn't adjusted, when it's talls you need, isn't going to give you talls.

 

[loki04]

Sydney too, but the academy has probably played as big a role as list management. Even with the Cats, either fantastic fitness programs or luck with longevity has played a big part. We tend to try to pin it all on one man way too much.

Sydney no way you can count them when Heeney, Mills etc were top 5 bid picks...they also got Blakey another top 10 rated pick. Plus McDonald at 4.

Heeney pick 2.
Mills pick 3.
McDonald pick 4.
Blakey pick 10.

Done well with picks in the 30s with T.McCartin 33 and Warner 39.

 

[whiskeytown]

I can guarantee with absolute certainty that the hit rate on 1st Rd talls is way out in front of talls drafted outside the 1st Rd. I think we’re all on the same page that drafting tall early isn’t necessarily going to be met with success, but it’s much more likely than drafting tall late.

From a Collingwood perspective Gordon, Thoolen, Paine, Perham, Richmond, Casey-Leigh, Wyatt, McCarthy, McLarty, McMahon and Kelly should be all the evidence need. Cox and Mihocek are the only successes we’ve had from our remarkable persistence with speculating on talls at the draft.

If you’re going back as far as Thoolen… then Maxwell, T Cloke were taken later

Yes though, top 15 picked KPP have a higher success rate

But those that picked M Lewis, Larkey, Tex Walker, Ben Brown, etc

Also prove that spending late picks on talls is not the waste of time that you make it out to be

 

[stixys121]

Can we talk about this draft ?

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Ed was a control freak. Stick his nose in everywhere. Still love him and what he did for us in his first few years. Saved the club and we now have the best facilities in footy. Overstayed his tenure.
Screwed up with Mick Malthouse succesion plan. Oh well..

I don't mind our new President because he's more low key in the media..

I think the MM sucession plan got us the 2010 flag. I think the recruitment of Buckley at the end of of 2009 fired up the troops. Made them hungry.

 

[sr36]

If you’re going back as far as Thoolen… then Maxwell, T Cloke were taken later

Yes though, top 15 picked KPP have a higher success rate

But those that picked M Lewis, Larkey, Tex Walker, Ben Brown, etc

Also prove that spending late picks on talls is not the waste of time that you make it out to be

I think the big issue we had was our criteria was wrong for talls and the ones we generally got late were skinny tall agile ones who hadn't been contest winners at any level, but suited an athletic profile that Dekka favoured. Whereas the AFL successful late picked talls have tended to be good contested players who were seen as physically NQR - a la Mihocek.

 

[Robroy22]

Interesting topic the recruitment of talls and whilst I admit that we've struggled of recent times, I'd also contend that MOST sides have as well. If you look at all the successful sides of the last 25 years, its been the tall forwards that have made the difference.

Brisbane had the three pillars obtained by a mixture of great drafting, a father-son and the combination of two AFL lists to form the Matthews led Lions. Then Hawthorn drafted Buddy and Roughy in the one draft....
We got lucky with our own father-son and grabbed a spine load of Brown, Reid and Dawes in successive drafts. Geelong of course had their own father-son/s as bookends but supplemented them with astute drafting (Pods and Harry Taylor) whilst the Tigers drafted Riewoldt and then complimented him with Tom Lynch in a mega signing.
West coast got lucky when they grabbed a young Josh Kennedy in exchange for a "go home" Chris Judd, Kennedy became a decade long tall target and won them a premiership....Judd didn't get Carlton one.

Geelong has revamped their Premiership credentials by "selling the farm" (quite literally) on Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

31

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

and its no surprise that its had the desired effect. Gun forwards seem to lead to finals success (no matter how much the defensive coaches say they don't)

There hasn't been a "generational" tall forward since Buddy. I know the King brothers are potentially that (as is Charlie Curnow

30

Charlie Curnow

Age

27

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.3

3star

K

9.7

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

) but none of these has led their side to success yet so for mine they're still speculative.

When I hear the sage's say that Geelong and Sydney draft so much better than the other AFL Clubs it makes my skin crawl a bit. They really haven't had to draft for talls in a decade or more. "Hawk" has been there for the Cats in prominence for 11 years since he came of age in the 2011 GF and Sydney just seems to be able to acquire gun forwards whenever their list looks like declining. Lockett (AFL assisted), Barry Hall (AFL assisted), Buddy.....and now Logan McDonald just drops in their lap. Good recruiting??? Yes they swapped a good flanker for Adelaide's top 5 pick for McDonald...but my point is, they never have to go 5-10 years without a big full forward (its AFL Guaranteed!!!).

So Wells and Beatson can usually just concentrate on mids and role players because their list spots get filled so easily when it comes to talls.

The fact that Hawk is still going around makes me wonder how many years we could have got out of Travis Cloke if we'd played a different game plan other than "kick it on Clokey's head against three blokes"
I'd love to see big Trav playing in Fly's game plan, I reckon he'd kick a lot more goals running his opponents under the ball and beating them back to goals.

All supposition of course, but I think the Geelong and Swans recruiters get far more credit than they're worth given the advantages they've been given over particularly the last dozen years.

Two ways to get a gun forward. Finish bottom and time your run for that once in a lifetime player....or PAY the PRICE to get one.

 

[frizzle]

We currently can’t trade our future 1st. I don’t personally see Carlton moving.

This is a good thing. Our guys need to hang on to our first round pick next year.

 

[Scodog10]

If you’re going back as far as Thoolen… then Maxwell, T Cloke were taken later

Yes though, top 15 picked KPP have a higher success rate

But those that picked M Lewis, Larkey, Tex Walker, Ben Brown, etc

Also prove that spending late picks on talls is not the waste of time that you make it out to be

Thoolen was 07, Cloke 04 and Maxwell was a tweener KPD plus he pre-dates Hine in 02. If you meant draft pick number Cloke was a probable top 10 pick if not for the ridiculous FS rules of the time. Walker was a NSW scholarship player.

You’ve named 3 “hits” of players selected outside the 1st Rd in the general talent pool. On average there’d be 5 drafted outside the 1st Rd every year which accounts for roughly 90 KPF’s drafted outside the first 20 picks (sometimes the 1st Rd pushes out that far with FS and academy players) since Hine became our head of recruiting and I’d be shocked if you can name a further 5 that were hits.

On the flip side in the same period excluding players that would have gone 1st Rd if in the general talent pool (Hawkins, Walker, Cameron, Dixon, Hogan and Cloke) we have Kennedy, Franklin, Roughead, King, King, Naughton, Lynch, Hipwood, Curnow, McKay, Marshall, Reiwoldt, Wright and Darling. Lukosious, JUH, Darcy and McDonald are decent odds of breaking into that group as well.

Out of curiosity how’d your mate Brander wind up?

 

[TradeDraft]

 

[Pistol Night]

Interesting topic the recruitment of talls and whilst I admit that we've struggled of recent times, I'd also contend that MOST sides have as well. If you look at all the successful sides of the last 25 years, its been the tall forwards that have made the difference.

Brisbane had the three pillars obtained by a mixture of great drafting, a father-son and the combination of two AFL lists to form the Matthews led Lions. Then Hawthorn drafted Buddy and Roughy in the one draft....
We got lucky with our own father-son and grabbed a spine load of Brown, Reid and Dawes in successive drafts. Geelong of course had their own father-son/s as bookends but supplemented them with astute drafting (Pods and Harry Taylor) whilst the Tigers drafted Riewoldt and then complimented him with Tom Lynch in a mega signing.
West coast got lucky when they grabbed a young Josh Kennedy in exchange for a "go home" Chris Judd, Kennedy became a decade long tall target and won them a premiership....Judd didn't get Carlton one.

Geelong has revamped their Premiership credentials by "selling the farm" (quite literally) on Jeremy Cameron and its no surprise that its had the desired effect. Gun forwards seem to lead to finals success (no matter how much the defensive coaches say they don't)

There hasn't been a "generational" tall forward since Buddy. I know the King brothers are potentially that (as is Charlie Curnow) but none of these has led their side to success yet so for mine they're still speculative.

When I hear the sage's say that Geelong and Sydney draft so much better than the other AFL Clubs it makes my skin crawl a bit. They really haven't had to draft for talls in a decade or more. "Hawk" has been there for the Cats in prominence for 11 years since he came of age in the 2011 GF and Sydney just seems to be able to acquire gun forwards whenever their list looks like declining. Lockett (AFL assisted), Barry Hall (AFL assisted), Buddy.....and now Logan McDonald just drops in their lap. Good recruiting??? Yes they swapped a good flanker for Adelaide's top 5 pick for McDonald...but my point is, they never have to go 5-10 years without a big full forward (its AFL Guaranteed!!!).

So Wells and Beatson can usually just concentrate on mids and role players because their list spots get filled so easily when it comes to talls.

The fact that Hawk is still going around makes me wonder how many years we could have got out of Travis Cloke if we'd played a different game plan other than "kick it on Clokey's head against three blokes"
I'd love to see big Trav playing in Fly's game plan, I reckon he'd kick a lot more goals running his opponents under the ball and beating them back to goals.

All supposition of course, but I think the Geelong and Swans recruiters get far more credit than they're worth given the advantages they've been given over particularly the last dozen years.

Two ways to get a gun forward. Finish bottom and time your run for that once in a lifetime player....or PAY the PRICE to get one.

Great call regarding Cloke. Only a year older than Hawkins from memory but seems a lifetime ago he was playing for us.

 

[TradeDraft]

 

[ksardog]

I think the MM sucession plan get us the 2010 flag. I think the recruitment of Buckley at the end of of 2009 fired up the troops. Made them hungry.

what a load of garbage, we only needed a ruckman to get a flag, that’s why we we’re losing the prelims in the previous years, because we had to go in with players like Bryan, Wood and Richards.
Jolly became available, missing piece to the puzzle

 

[Apex36]

Thoolen was 07, Cloke 04 and Maxwell pre-dates Hine in 02. If you meant draft pick number Cloke was a probable top 10 pick if not for the ridiculous FS rules of the time.

And let’s face it while Maxy was technically tall enough to be a key defender, he was never anything more than a loose intercept defender. The rare occasions he had to be responsible for an actual opponent, he was pulverised as a general rule.

 

[Apex36]

what a load of garbage, we only needed a ruckman to get a flag, that’s why we we’re losing the prelims in the previous years, because we had to go in with players like Bryan, Wood and Richards.
Jolly became available, missing piece to the puzzle

Jolly + Ball. We desperately needed that clearance bull too.