2022 Federal Election Watch

[Gralin]

Part 2 can be found here

2022 Federal Election Watch - Part 2 the count

Welcome to Part 2 of the Federal Election Watch Part 1 can be found here https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2022-federal-election-watch.1306808/

www.bigfooty.com

 

[FRUMPY]

I think they design new estates to minimise ability of through traffic (to discourage people driving through the estate) which means the design becomes one road in and out. Compounding this is the main road across Kalkallo in east to west (Donnybrook Road) is being franctically duplicated to handle current traffic (meaning lots of current roadworks and the road is currently not straight (so have to swere with the road works)

Yeah we drove through their often when i lived out in whittlesea. Always thought the 'duplicated' sections were being done by the developers for their section of the road only, hence why its little bits here and there. State/council should just duplicate the whole thing before a hole is dug for any house.

 

[Cooldude]

I use the 7/11 fuel app you can lock in a fuel price for 7 days. I have 1.79 p95 locked in until tomorrow for eg and its free

Cheers mate. I found a 1.78 yesterday and filled my tank before they rise. Imagine wanting to get reelected while inflation keeps going out of control under him

 

[NSWCROW]

7,804 dead

 

[Forward Press]

This latest policy may be the final death knell for this government (famous last words).

Surely all Labor needs to do is highlight the inherit flaw in the policy in that it actually drives up house prices and was disowned by the government themselves just a couple of years ago, and then shut up and not make any major policy announcements in the final six days. The small target strategy is working, Albo's first week gaffes are long forgotten, the polling numbers are refusing to yield no matter what ScoMo is attempting.

 

[L_W_P]

The short term solution to the housing problem is also the poison chalice.... Negative gearing. Get rid of it and increase lower cost 1 and 2 bedroom dwellings. The only other real solution is to have high speed rail and satellite cities.

Yep.

Living in Cranbourne East and getting to the freeway is bad enough now. I'm terrified of what it's going to look like as they fill in the gap between Clyde and Tooradin with housing and next to no central work hub outside of schools, bulk bill clinics, Woolies and Coles.

The 'work from home' revolution might end up a blessing in disguise for transport/logistics but it's still something that isn't being accounted for re: telecom setups in all these new estates.

A town like Moe or Korumburra could be developed into a major service hub with businesses encouraged to base service/support teams there by way of cheap rent and state of the art internet/service hard ware. It would then encourage relocation away from the traditional offices in the City or on St Kilda Rd with more people moving out to the smaller country towns and commuting in a totally new way.

But nah, drain ya Super and pray there's still enough in the national kitty to fund a semi decent pension in 30-40 years...

 

[FRUMPY]

at least they are allowing people who did take money from their super during covid the opportunity to put it back into super without any penalty if you go over the non-concessional cap.

however, i presume most who took money out wont put any back in as they either dont have the funds (hence the withdrawal) or any idiot out there who took it out to buy shit they didnt really need as they saw it as free money wont have any interest in putting it back into super.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

at least they are allowing people who did take money from their super during covid the opportunity to put it back into super without any penalty if you go over the non-concessional cap.

however, i presume most who took money out wont put any back in as they either dont have the funds (hence the withdrawal) or any idiot out there who took it out to buy shit they didnt really need as they saw it as free money wont have any interest in putting it back into super.

at one point in 2020, aussies had withdrawn more from super than the feds had spent on the pandemic. it was one of the biggest scams of all time

 

[Gough]

at one point in 2020, aussies had withdrawn more from super than the feds had spent on the pandemic. it was one of the biggest scams of all time

Makes you wonder how we've got a deficit of a trillion bucks when the government's answer to everything is draw down your super.

 

[Mick F]

negative gearing is a nice perk, but you didnt buy that apartment because you would lose coin and could offset some of that loss against other incomes. ultimately you want to earn.

speaking for myself, when we have chosen to invest in property its because of one of two issues:

1) less likely to incur a loss than investing in the share market

2) we intend to use the property for redevelopment and offload in 2 years

CGT was never a consideration

As you say, makes no difference to you.

If investments aren’t positively geared, with interest rates at 3%, it would be a pretty poor option.

 

[Burro]

Yep.

Living in Cranbourne East and getting to the freeway is bad enough now. I'm terrified of what it's going to look like as they fill in the gap between Clyde and Tooradin with housing and next to no central work hub outside of schools, bulk bill clinics, Woolies and Coles.

The 'work from home' revolution might end up a blessing in disguise for transport/logistics but it's still something that isn't being accounted for re: telecom setups in all these new estates.

A town like Moe or Korumburra could be developed into a major service hub with businesses encouraged to base service/support teams there by way of cheap rent and state of the art internet/service hard ware. It would then encourage relocation away from the traditional offices in the City or on St Kilda Rd with more people moving out to the smaller country towns and commuting in a totally new way.

But nah, drain ya Super and pray there's still enough in the national kitty to fund a semi decent pension in 30-40 years...

This new Morrison housing idea is totally flawed. It is just an emotive hail mary. I don't think people looking to get into housing ownership will be fooled by this, they are doing the numbers all the time and know the market shortage. Business need to get people back into workplaces... so that is going to be interesting.

 

[Pessimistic]

given the issue teal voters have by just placing 1 next to one box I'd say you are right

People who are really invested and probably will be handing out how to vote cards

 

[Mick F]

they dont even make the roads before making the new housing estates. Use the same roads that have been there for 50 years, build a million houses, wait 10 years and then double the roads to handle the traffic. Does my head in.

Saw a housing estate in Kakallo (north of melb) on the news about the one road in and out of a housing estate, takes people an hr to get out of their estate of a morning to go to work or school drop offs - how this shit is allowed is beyond me. They dont plan for shit, squeeze in as many houses as they can and take the money

Agree. The challenge is commensurate infrastructure.

Morrison is concerned with votes for the here and now.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

at one point in 2020, aussies had withdrawn more from super than the feds had spent on the pandemic. it was one of the biggest scams of all time

You got those figures somewhere? I can find that around $36.4b in total against both offerings was accessed from people's super.

What I can see on government expenditure well and truly eclipses that figure. JobKeeper alone was $89b.

 

[Pessimistic]

no. investment properties can still be lived in, thats not why we have a shortage

we have a shortage due to:

• limited new land around capital cities
• australias low density housing
• immigration

want more housing cheaply? you need to flood the market in excess of demand, which means:

• ending large scale immigration
• heavily incentivized/forced relocation of millions outside the capitals
• end low density housing

all three are not politically possible, so we are where we are at

Large scale immigration? Aren’t we at a net loss since pandemic started?

 

[Hoops]

I honestly don't think I have ever spent so much time as I did this week, working out who to give preferences to this time around.

For most it doesn't matter once one of the majors is preferenced

 

[Kyptastic]

The Super/Housing Announcement is not meant to stand up to any scrutiny. All they want to get out of it is that low info voters may hear that the Liberals have a housing plan and it may get them to switch back, as well as to appeal to the wealthier classes that their property values will continue to rise under a Coalition government.

 

[Pessimistic]

1) I am an investor, and I can tell you right now negative gearing and CGT mean jack shit in any purchase decision. Its why Im happy to see neg gearing ditched

2) investors are not the thing driving demand. Most of them knock down the houses and replace them with 2-4 units, which they sell most to buyers (actually increasing stock in the market)

3) what is driving demand is immigration. In 30 years, Melbourne has gone from 3.2m to 5m people. Thats over a 50% increase. Reality is the "size" of melbourne hasnt expanded by over 50%. yes its grown out, but the rest has been accommodated via higher population density construction (ie apartments and units)


you could ban companies owning houses, and people owning more than 1 house (get ready for 5 year olds to start being home owners if that happens), but this wont fix the problem. The issue is immigration, low density housing, and the refusal to move beyond the capitals (for the most part)

Which is why the suburban rail loop, and medium density around is a good move it done correctly (a big ask I know)

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Makes you wonder how we've got a deficit of a trillion bucks when the government's answer to everything is draw down your super.

They could start a GoFundMe for housing affordability.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Large scale immigration? Aren’t we at a net loss since pandemic started?

again, population movements are things that have impacts over decades. its not a move on a dime situation.

we are still housing the catering for the masses who migrated here previously (remember many will start in temp accom while searching for more perma digs, or need to graduate and get a job to then fund their new life with their PR)


The one aspect that did spin on a dime was student accom, which is why Melbourne, Carlton, and Clayton lead the state for vacancies

 

[Pessimistic]

The Super/Housing Announcement is not meant to stand up to any scrutiny. All they want to get out of it is that low info voters may hear that the Liberals have a housing plan and it may get them to switch back, as well as to appeal to the wealthier classes that their property values will continue to rise under a Coalition government.

As someone mentioned, the people trying to get first home and potential downsizes will be across all the detail. I can’t see much wool being pulled over eyes here.

Maybe their parents and kids who are hearing the issues but don’t understand will fall for it

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Which is why the suburban rail loop, and medium density around is a good move it done correctly (a big ask I know)

agree, but the thing many wont like is future suburbs will look more like Box Hill and Glen Waverley, than the suburbs of old with a handful of apartments, some units, and lots of houses.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

You got those figures somewhere? I can find that around $36.4b in total against both offerings was accessed from people's super.

What I can see on government expenditure well and truly eclipses that figure. JobKeeper alone was $89b.

learn to read - i said at one point in 2020, the feds came late to the party remember

 

[Ned_Flanders]

As someone mentioned, the people trying to get first home and potential downsizes will be across all the detail. I can’t see much wool being pulled over eyes here.

Maybe their parents and kids who are hearing the issues but don’t understand will fall for it

outside the Australian sucking scomo's junk, its not getting a lot of positive media

 

[Pessimistic]

at least they are allowing people who did take money from their super during covid the opportunity to put it back into super without any penalty if you go over the non-concessional cap.

however, i presume most who took money out wont put any back in as they either dont have the funds (hence the withdrawal) or any idiot out there who took it out to buy shit they didnt really need as they saw it as free money wont have any interest in putting it back into super.

Could you link if possible please?

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

learn to read - i said at one point in 2020, the feds came late to the party remember

I read just fine, I read 2020, the government response in that same time frame puts it in the shade. Got those figures?