2022 Federal Election Watch

[Gralin]

Part 2 can be found here

2022 Federal Election Watch - Part 2 the count

Welcome to Part 2 of the Federal Election Watch Part 1 can be found here https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2022-federal-election-watch.1306808/

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Crankyhawk]

additional tax for "excess contributions" is a different story.

But should those on modest incomes have to take the 10% SGC as marginal income just to meet commitments?

no they shouldn't. I am aware that my issue is a very much first world problem, it just makes me feel (yes I know emotions and crap) that I am somehow a tax cheat being fined for something I have no control over.

(and this is not the voluntary excess contribution cap which I understand as a fair way to prevent massive salary sacrifice and tax dodging and support that aim)

 

[Pie eyed]

It's somewhat ironic hearing Pink Batts rolled out when Robodebt and the class action that followed, is the greatest disaster public sector history ever

Morrison is 100% responsible for the scheme too, from start to finish.
Should get a jail term for it I reckon.

• In April 2015, measures to create budgetary savings by increasing the pursuit of outstanding debts and investigation of cases of fraud in the Australian welfare system were first flagged by the Minister for Social Services Scott Morrison and the Minister for Human Services Marise Payne,[23] and formally announced by the Abbott Government in the 2015 Australian federal budget.[24]
• Initial estimates in the 2015 budget projected that the scheme would recoup A$1.5 billion for the government.[20]
• In 2015, the Department of Human Services conducted a two-stage pilot of the Robodebt scheme, targeting debts of selected welfare recipients that were accrued between 2011-2013.[25]
• Following the 2015 Liberal Party Leadership Spill and 2016 Australian federal election, the Turnbull government implemented an overhaul of the federal welfare budget in an effort to crack down on Centrelink overpayments believed to have occurred between 2010 and 2013 under the Gillard government.[4][5]
• In July 2016, the manual system began to be replaced with the Online Compliance Intervention, an automated data-matching technique with less human oversight, capable of identifying and issuing computer-generated debt notices to welfare recipients who had potentially been overpaid.[3][4] The new system was fully online by September 2016.[25]
• In December 2016, Minister for Social Services Christian Porter publicly announced the implementation of this new automated debt recovery scheme – which was given the colloquial name 'Robodebt' by the media[8][26] – was estimated to be capable of issuing debt notices at a rate of 20,000 a week.[4][27]

Scott Morrison's robodebt to society

Labor has joined the Greens' call for a royal commission into "robodebt" — an unlawful Morrison Government debt recovery scheme.

independentaustralia.net

 

[Ned_Flanders]

The Green candidate is a huge chance in Higgins.

there is only 1-2% between the ALP and the Greens, and Allen is potentially only 1-2% of a TPP majority - its insanely close!!!

 

[Pie eyed]

What is an 'unnecessary covid death' entail ?

Hundreds of deaths which can be directly attributed to the Morrison Governments flaccid response to covid, especially in the aged care sector.
more can be directly attributed to the NSW Government's useless response and that of Duttons "Border farce".

 

[Saint]

1) no teal candidate in Higgins

2) leaked internals have Allens primary falling from 48% to 44%

3) focus groups have climate change as the #1 issue in higgins, and Allen is being bashed to pieces on this (she's being smeared with the "you voted with Barnaby every time" line constantly)

4) IMO its the three way coin toss - could fall to any of the libs, greens, or alp - it will be close and will be a late night guesstimate call

I always get Higgins and Goldstein mixed up. Forgot it was the Greens who challenge in Higgins. But I don't think demographics have shifted enough since the last election as it had from the one before.

MSM have done a good job of not giving Higgins any air-time. It used to get the most in the Kelly O'Dwyer days.

 

[Pie eyed]

there is only 1-2% between the ALP and the Greens, and Allen is potentially only 1-2% of a TPP majority - its insanely close!!!

Anyone who gets rid of a Lib is a gain for the country.
It has been a long time since the Libs lost Higgins.

 

[Magruder]

no they shouldn't. I am aware that my issue is a very much first world problem, it just makes me feel (yes I know emotions and crap) that I am somehow a tax cheat being fined for something I have no control over.

(and this is not the voluntary excess contribution cap which I understand as a fair way to prevent massive salary sacrifice and tax dodging and support that aim)

of course the contributions would be taxed on the way in but they wouldn't be taxed on the way out.

just spitballing... can you not salary sacrifice into a separate managed investment scheme? Something that sits outside super.

Issue may be preservation and of course it would likely have CGT implications later. (although I dare say the 25% CGT would be preferable to top whack marginal tax).

 

[nut]

How many voters vote purely on who they think will win … just so they feel good voting for the winner ?

 

[Kyptastic]

Anyone who gets rid of a Lib is a gain for the country.
It has been a long time since the Libs lost Higgins.

The reports I've seen is that Higgins is the seat in the country where Scott Morrison has the lowest approval rating. That alone might cost Allen the seat. Add on almost always voting with Barnaby and she's in big trouble.

 

[Gralin]

In case people haven't watched it yet, do yourselves a favor, pity this gem isn't on FTA for those stuck dealing with buckets and holes

 

[footscray1973]

I watched Zoe Daniel for years on the ABC, you honestly reckon she would have been gettable by the LNP? What about Steggal?

Not sure if anyone responded to this yet, but Steggall stated clearly when running against Abbott last time that she had regularly voted Liberal at State and local (but not Federal) level, and any number of interviews with her in MSM prior to the last election implied she was a right-leaning centrist. She even said herself when she saw Jane Caro and Tim Flannery proposed as candidates to run against Abbott by the local Warringah action group that left-wing candidates would struggle to knock off Abbott, the clear implication being she was not a left-wing candidate.

Abbott laughably tried to paint her as some sort of GetUp funded activist and agent for Bill Shorten, when all it would have taken was some basic online research by the Libs to realise she was more a dis-satisfied small l liberal, with a passion for some socially progressive issues such as climate change.

Also digging a little harder (seems to be beyond a lot of political staffers on both sides) would have shown that Zoe Daniel was a swinging voter, and actually voted Liberal in 2016 - was not a secret and I remember reading that she had disclosed this well before becoming a political candidate.

Both Zoe Daniel and Rob Priestly (independent running in Nicholls, but not associated with Voices of group) were on ABC Melbourne last week, and when given a few rapid-fire questions to present some sort of brief bio, both answered the question "Howard or Hawke" with "Howard".

I don't know what methods the LNP or ALP use to identify potential high profile ("celebrity") candidates, but it literally takes minutes online to get a grasp of the likely political leanings of many high profile people. Beyond that, even a general vibe would quickly suggest that "captain's picks" like Warren Mundine are a disaster waiting to happen. Maybe the major parties should stop:
(A) allowing any of their leaders to make "captain's picks" at all;
(B) replace their staffers (nominally tasked with identifying high profile candidates to try and parachute into seats) with a bunch of teenagers and a browser (or even me! ).

The quality of people "employed" as political researchers across the board must be pretty grim. Or maybe they are incapable of looking beyond their own echo chambers within their own networks or the MSM or online streams they interact with.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I always get Higgins and Goldstein mixed up. Forgot it was the Greens who challenge in Higgins. But I don't think demographics have shifted enough since the last election as it had from the one before.

MSM have done a good job of not giving Higgins any air-time. It used to get the most in the Kelly O'Dwyer days.

Its got one thing in common with Goldie and Kooyong, and thats its a grassroots fight this year

the number of corflutes up is on par with those suburbs, with a similar story. Allen has a fair number of the land rat sized big boards, but the greens and alp corflutes are all over the place

toorak is no change, nearly all allen signage. The change is Glen Iris. Its much closer to what you see going through Ashburton

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Anyone who gets rid of a Lib is a gain for the country.
It has been a long time since the Libs lost Higgins.

The Libs have never "lost" Higgins. The only time they did was a technicality - when Gorton became an indi (but he was elected as a liberal, and the seat was won by a liberal when the election was due and he ran for the senate)

 

[Not Important]

hume goes low all the time. no better than scummo. saul was a liberal advisor at 1 time 2. seems the libs r eating their own.




#FireTheLiar.

 

[Present Not Past]

Lots of people have no clue about Preferential Voting

Just on this. Has anyone done an analysis of the preference deals of the so-called Teal Independents? There's a lot of them and they seem quite organised. They also come from very different backgrounds. Individually if they can't turf out the sitting members it will be important where their votes go.

 

[Crankyhawk]

of course the contributions would be taxed on the way in but they wouldn't be taxed on the way out.

just spitballing... can you not salary sacrifice into a separate managed investment scheme? Something that sits outside super.

Issue may be preservation and of course it would likely have CGT implications later. (although I dare say the 25% CGT would be preferable to top whack marginal tax).

no because I think the super is calculated on the grossed up amount anyway; and theres a limit to how much I can do through investments (theres a roughly 10k/ year cap - which I use for credit card bills) i think anything above that attracts FBT

 

[Not Important]

Just on this. Has anyone done an analysis of the preference deals of the so-called Teal Independents? There's a lot of them and they seem quite organised. They also come from very different backgrounds. Individually if they can't turf out the sitting members it will be important where their votes go.

they haven't done preference deals. i understand why but it might cost them because the libs have. even dining with the devil like palmer and hanson.

#FireTheLiar

 

[Present Not Past]

How many voters vote purely on who they think will win … just do they feel good voting for the winner ?

There's a local legend that in Bennelong in 2007 so many local Chinese laid down so much money on Maxine McKew winning the seat (given the long odds) that they actually voted John Howard out as a sitting Prime Minister.

 

[Present Not Past]

they haven't done preference deals. i understand why but it might cost them because the libs have. even dining with the devil like palmer and hanson.

#FireTheLiar

Interesting, so the preferences will be quite random, according to how each voter numbers the remaining boxes.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Interesting, so the preferences will be quite random, according to how each voter numbers the remaining boxes.

preferences for Daniel and Ryan wont mean shit - the third candidates are no chance of making the ground to get second place

the issue is people only ticking one box because the HTV card only have "1" listed (apparently its worrying the Ryan camp)

 

[Pie eyed]

How many voters vote purely on who they think will win … just do they feel good voting for the winner ?

I know a lot of voters vote against candidates they feel are thieves or corrupt, or who simply follow the Party line irrespective of how stupid the policies are.
In Canberra for instance it looks like Zed Seselja is gone.
Has never done a thing for his local electorate, in fact fought against anything which was not Party edict tot he word.
Follows like a dog and was primarily a religious candidate.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I know a lot of voters vote against candidates they feel are thieves or corrupt, or who simply follow the Party line irrespective of how stupid the policies are.
In Canberra for instance it looks like Zed Seselja is gone.
Has never done a thing for his local electorate, in fact fought against anything which was not Party edict tot he word.
Follows like a dog and was primarily a religious candidate.

loathe this type of member/senator, regardless of party

 

[#26]

Spotted Bill Shorten handing out how to votes in Maribyrnong today. Always weird for me when I see people from the telly in real life.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Kevin Rudd doing what Labor MPs are too weak to do, attacking Murdoch propaganda and bias.
Awesome stuff.

 

[Saint]

I know a lot of voters vote against candidates they feel are thieves or corrupt, or who simply follow the Party line irrespective of how stupid the policies are.
In Canberra for instance it looks like Zed Seselja is gone.
Has never done a thing for his local electorate, in fact fought against anything which was not Party edict tot he word.
Follows like a dog and was primarily a religious candidate.

Same as Frydenberg and Wilson in Victoria. They're implementing stupid Qld policies in seats where the voters aren't stupid.

Thinking they can get away with corruption and denialism.

Especially in Canberra where everyone is hyper-aware of corruption, this whole "I've never seen anything corrupt" just isn't going to fly when they've been so blatant about it.