2022 Federal Election Watch

[Gralin]

Part 2 can be found here

2022 Federal Election Watch - Part 2 the count

Welcome to Part 2 of the Federal Election Watch Part 1 can be found here https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2022-federal-election-watch.1306808/

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Gralin]

mean and median are very diffierent and I would like to know if all dwellings (including units and apartments) were included in that figure

yeah that's the thing isn't it, has to include 1 bedroom apartments if they are going to be talking $640k in Melbourne

 

[Forward Press]

That's what I believe (and hope) but there are concerns in ACT Labor that a lot of voters are going to vote for Pocock and/or Rubenstein thinking that Gallagher is safe and that their vote could be high enough that Zed drops to fourth after primaries and that preferences get both Independents up. Sounds almost implausible, but Labor bought former PM Julia Gillard in yesterday to support Gallagher so they are obviously a little worried.

Pocock has the profile, Rubenstein has the credibility. It's making for the most interesting Senate race in the ACT, ever.

Seems like an interesting race to follow - if the ALP fall short of quota (likely if the two independents are indeed siphoning off the votes) the independents could preference each other over the line with Greens help. What is the LNP's preference flow?

Would love to see two independents Bradbury their way into Parliament.

 

[Crankyhawk]

yeah that's the thing isn't it, has to include 1 bedroom apartments if they are going to be talking $640k in Melbourne

and if (taking extreme example) there are 9x $400k apartments and 1x $1.4 million dollar home the median would be $400k and the mean $500k

 

[Gralin]

and if (taking extreme example) there are 9x $400k apartments and 1x $1.4 million dollar home the median would be $400k and the mean $500k

i haven't looked but I expect there would be quite a few unwanted apartments in the CBD skewing numbers, a lot of people either moved out, or couldn't get in to study over 2020-21

 

[Cooldude]

same - they keep up with the "this is how you fill out your ballot" shit, not "this is how you fill out your ballot to support Frydo"

not ******* hard, and its obvious what the intent is. Personally I think they are underestimating chinese australians.

I have friends who live in kooyong, live in a place worth over $10m and have their own local business, and were rusted on liberals because they were the party of business. The whole family is voting non liberal for the first time ever.

My mum's voting liberal but she's kinda a racist Karen so it isn't unexpected. She's telling me to vote lib, which is pretty funny

 

[Forward Press]

The Chinese vote in this election may (anecdotal evidence obviously) swing away from the coalition more than some think - a lot have bought into the WeChat propaganda machine sponsored by the CCP and ScoMo's anti-China rhetoric has done significant damage. Labor and Albo are perceived as being amenable to good trading relations with China.

 

[NSWCROW]

reported in the Fin Review that Liberal insiders are saying that some of the hawks in the party are not happy they may be leaving govt before they had their full policy position on china implemented

apparently the faux war with china we have now is the soften downed and moderated version of what some in the coalition wanted

my question is, what the actual fu** did they want to do that they were stopped from doing???

Remember me remarking a while back that the libs ****ed up by attacking " China " and not " The CCP " ??

 

[winty]

Week has started off well for Dutton....

 

[QuietB]

I cannot deal with this anymore.

Frydenberg has announced a further $1billion improvement in the budget. This will be funded by $2.7 billion in savings from the public service.

This is the same public service that is watch the aged care sector crumble, that was almost absent during covid, a public service that could not get Australians home, that cannot process visa's on time, that is basically broken. But lets have more cuts - cause they vote Labor.

Why do we pay taxes at all?

 

[Rob R]

Are these campaigners fu**en TANKING ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

Libs in a battle to hold their Canberra senate seat and they plan something that impacts negatively on most of the voters in the area. At what stage, do the betting agents wonder if the fix is in and the LNP has bet on the ALP to fund their 2025 campaign.

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Percel]

Potentially the first Zim Australian MP too, I would have blown my dough putting good money on that coming from deep on the other side of politics too.

exactly

 

[PT Bar None]

Don't know about that... looks like the guy has really let himself go since retiring

Geez, I'd like shitshow Scomo to try on his bully-boy routine with this bloke!

"In other news, the former Australian Prime Minister was found stuffed in a letterbox today, after he accused the Senate of leaking"

 

[Crankyhawk]

I cannot deal with this anymore.

Frydenberg has announced a further $1billion improvement in the budget. This will be funded by $2.7 billion in savings from the public service.

This is the same public service that is watch the aged care sector crumble, that was almost absent during covid, a public service that could not get Australians home, that cannot process visa's on time, that is basically broken. But lets have more cuts - cause they vote Labor.

Why do we pay taxes at all?

if the cuts are coming out of non front line "management" due to better automation and easier transparent reporting, that is a fair and reasonable thing
but if it impacts front facing capacity/ service delivery then they can GAGF.

 

[Gough]

Geez, I'd like shitshow Scomo to try on his bully-boy routine with this bloke!

"In other news, the former Australian Prime Minister was found stuffed in a letterbox today, after accuse the Senate of leaking"

Creamed him like a tardy scrum half.

 

[PT Bar None]

My mum's voting liberal but she's kinda a racist Karen so it isn't unexpected. She's telling me to vote lib, which is pretty funny

I've told my National voting mum we're going to put her in a federally run retirement home when the time comes

 

[Forward Press]

I like DaRick's excellent write ups, but as we are five days out I figured I'd use my boredom for a seat-by-seat breakdown of Emperor McGowan's turf:

Western Australia as Antony Green often observes tends to be more conservative in modern Australian politics. The last time the ALP had more than half of the 2PP vote was in 1987 - even Kevin07 only saw the ALP top out at under 47%. 1990 was the last time the ALP had a majority of seats in WA (8 out of 14) - can both of these long-running streaks be broken in 2022?

The key will be the Clive Palmer and Mark McGowan factors - WA Labor ads here have gone hard on linking Morrison with Palmer, who even die-hard Liberal Party members distance themselves from. There has been plenty of material mentioning the High Court challenge to WA's borders backed by Morrison and Palmer (which in time has proven to be the wrong call for WA) and Palmer's attempt to bankrupt the state. Morrison here is often perceived as the PM for NSW.

In contrast, Mark McGowan's face is on everything (understandable after the record-breaking landslide of 2021 that threatened the existence of the WA Liberal Party - not an exaggeration) - will that be enough to sway the traditionally conservative state? There is a mood for change here - a swing back to the ALP is certain, but will it be enough for Albanese? We're a parochial lot and we don't like being lectured to from Canberra, either Lib or Labor.

Swan is the obvious seat to watch. Held with a margin of 3.2% by the Libs, that area like most others in the Perth suburbs saw enormous amounts of votes towards the ALP in the state election and will be losing its long term member (Steve Irons). From what I hear on the ground, the ALP is going very hard at this one and although their candidate is relatively unknown, they will be backing themselves to snatch this purely on the electorate being in the mood for McGowan. The last State election saw the electorates making up Swan post some of the biggest swings towards the ALP.

Pearce is the second seat to watch. Held with a margin of 7.5% when Christian Porter easily won re-election, the scandal-plagued former Attorney General will see his seat being radically redrawn to lose the more Liberal voting affluent and rural areas to Moore, and gain the poorer Labor voting areas of north eastern Perth. The notional margin is now 5.2% and a popular local mayor is the ALP candidate. Labor will be licking their lips at this but I still think the Libs have a path to retain this even with the loss of Porter and redistribution.

Cowan is a marginal ALP seat. I mention this as although it is one of the most marginal in the country, Anne Aly is considered popular and should survive a challenge from the now abolished Stirling MP Vince Connelly. The redistribution also helps her chances, if Labor lose this they will not form government anyway.

Curtin (!) the former seat of Julie Bishop and generally ultra safe Liberal should not be in discussion but the rise of a teal in Kate Chaney has put Celia Hammond under huge pressure. Preferences will flow towards Chaney and from what I see and hear on the ground, Chaney has immense local popularity and recognition. Polling is still slightly favouring Hammond and perhaps the undecided voters on election day will err on the side of caution and stick with the Libs. If this falls to Chaney then surely this also means Albanese has started to measure the curtains in the Lodge.

Hasluck is the fourth Liberal seat to watch as potentially under threat. Held by a minister - Ken Wyatt - but if the swing is on he will be under threat as the margin is only 5.9%. Personally, I think his local popularity plus WA's natural tendency to stick with conservative Federal government will see him through. Widely predicted to be under threat in 2019 but in the end he easily won re-election, I expect this to be the same.

Canning and Moore are long time Liberal seats held on double digit margins, if they come under threat then the government has long since been decided in the eastern states. The margin should be reduced by I don't expect Andrew Hastie or Ian Goodenough to be sweating much on Saturday.

The ALP seats of Brand, Burt, Fremantle and Perth are expected to be easily retained and there is nothing on the ground indicating otherwise. The regional seats of Durack, Forrest and O'Connor are also expected to be retained, probably by double digit margins or near enough, by the Libs.

Prediction:
Liberal - 8 (-2)
Labor - 6 (+1)

 

[QuietB]

if the cuts are coming out of non front line "management" due to better automation and easier transparent reporting, that is a fair and reasonable thing
but if it impacts front facing capacity/ service delivery then they can GAGF.

I disagree. Australia needs to re-invest in its public service. That is surely one of the lessons of the pandemic.

There are no cuts proposed to contracting and out-sourcing and that is slowly killing the public service all together.

This is just more ideological bullshit by Morrison.

Mixed with a bit of Trumpism (they don't vote for me to **** em).

And if the argument is that the public service is inefficient then I will say two things;

1. Fix it then
2. And, I can take you to any major bank/insurance company/any corporate and show every second person doing nothing but makes themselves look busy and important. The private sector is equally inefficient.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Potentially the first Zim Australian MP too, I would have blown my dough putting good money on that coming from deep on the other side of politics too.

The Union set are more likely to fall towards the Teal side.

 

[kickazz]

Not sure what this means

Not wanting to take bets whilst they re-assess their price due to a particular event (super policy announcement?)

FWIW Betfair (a more reliable market indicator) has seen the LNP shorten from about 4.3 yesterday to 3.85 now. But that's after hovering between 2.8 and 3.3 for most of the campaign.

 

[kickazz]

I cannot deal with this anymore.

Frydenberg has announced a further $1billion improvement in the budget. This will be funded by $2.7 billion in savings from the public service.

This is the same public service that is watch the aged care sector crumble, that was almost absent during covid, a public service that could not get Australians home, that cannot process visa's on time, that is basically broken. But lets have more cuts - cause they vote Labor.

Why do we pay taxes at all?

For expansion of very profitable distilleries in Tasmania run by folks with links to LNP donors.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

For expansion of very profitable distilleries in Tasmania run by folks with links to LNP donors.

they are battlers mate, BATTLERS!!!

 

[QuietB]

ScottyFromMarketing at it again - Mr Announcement

Scott Morrison’s Aukus middleman has not lobbied US officials since landmark deal announced, document shows

US foreign lobbying register filings reveal Prof Donald Winter has not carried out any ‘representational activities’ since Aukus deal was announced

www.theguardian.com

 

[QuietB]

For expansion of very profitable distilleries in Tasmania run by folks with links to LNP donors.

Do we get a discount if we show our tax returns?

 

[Pessimistic]

There's a concerted effort, particularly from business lobby groups, that people should be forced to go into offices where they don't want to work so they can buy coffee at much higher prices

Cos they had a nice little earner. Convert more older cbd buildings into accommodation. Simples

 

[QuietB]

For expansion of very profitable distilleries in Tasmania run by folks with links to LNP donors.

I just looked at their website - they sell carbon offsets as well as whisky