List Mgmt. 2022 List Management and Trading Thread - Part 2
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FR0GGY
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That’s because we’ve ballsed up top draft picks and ignored the midfield.
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- Oct 11, 2012
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The magical 50 games mark is used by the club to buy itself time.
Some players do take that time but a lot are influencial from very early and those often go on to be elite players. We have a number of very promising younger players but we also have a lot of ballast getting regular games.
- Sep 3, 2018
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It’s also because 2012-2017 drafting is a wasteland. We only have 9/41 players drafted through that period on our list - players 24-29 yr old peak career
Of those 9 only 1 would be regarded as an A grade player - Laird. Doedee, O’Brien are established 18 and then Fog looks like a breakout
Big question marks over Milera, Himmelberg, Murphy and MacPherson
Crouch clearly out of favour and seems the game has passed him by.
Teams with “quick” and successful “rebuilds” as highlighted with Geelong and Hawks have a solid base of quality players when they bottom out and then drafted very well.
We have drafted pretty well over the last 4 years but have no strong base of old players and still have the McAsey Jones and McHenry (possibly Pedlar) high end misses
Makes for a long tough road
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That's highly optimistic for 2023. That's where we should be aiming in 2024.
GreyCrow
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- Mar 21, 2016
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Sport is not a spreadsheet
Nope... and progress is non-linear. We simply don't have the cattle, the maturity, or the experience, to win enough games to finish 8-10 next year.
I hope we do finish 8-10, because it would mean that our rebuild is 12 months ahead of schedule... but I don't think it's realistic.
We won 4 games this year against teams finishing 1-16 on the ladder. For us to finish 8-10 would require us to at least double that total. I don't see that happening.
GreyCrow
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- Mar 21, 2016
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Won 7 games in 2021 and 8 games in 2022. Do you hope for 9 wins?
Thats 2 years at the magical 40-50 game number - we should be better than 9 wins
2022 we lost 3 games under a goal - thats 11 wins and 10th spot right there. Thats coaching.
I also hate the ''our rebuild is ahead of schedule'' - again thats a spreadsheet talking. It also allows the club to wallow in the mire while not being held accountable
JFC demand 11 wins as a MINIMUM - dont accept mediocrity
WaynesWorld19
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I agree with you ......8-10 is a realistic finishing position (injuries permitting)
8 wins this year ....the addition of Pedlar and Rankine, plus natural maturation, should see another 2-3 wins ......it's gotta be the expectation IMO
- Aug 30, 2021
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8 is just scraping into the 8, it’s not like we are expecting to be one of the better teams with that result.
Finishing just outside the 8 with an expectation of definitely making it in 2024, not making it then will be a massive fail, as would finishing lower than 12 this year. If that happens Nicks has to be under massive pressure.
We are getting games into players, we’ve got a stacked forward line so scoring shouldn’t be a problem.
4 of our wins in 2022 were against Norf & the Weagles. We won 4 games, in total, against teams ranked 1-16.
While we lost 3 games by under a goal, we also won 2 games by under a goal (vs Port & Dogs). We won 40% of our games decided by a goal or less - that's about par for the course, particularly for a side as young & inexperienced as the current Crows outfit. There's no reason to expect that 40% will magically become 100% in 2023.
Assuming we only get 3 games against the bottom 2 sides next year, 11 wins would require 8 against the 1-16 sides - double what we achieved in 2022. I just don't see that happening.
History says that most "ground up" rebuilds take a minimum of 7 years, and we're now 3 years into that program. You can hate all this talk about a schedule, but that's what history says is the reality. History... not spreadsheets. Feel free to wail & whine about history, but you can't change it.
11 wins in 2023 isn't mediocrity - it would be a major ****ing miracle for the current Crows team.
- Aug 30, 2021
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Next year the Hawks and GWS will be weaker, so they are 2 sides we shouldn't lose to. That makes up for maybe not playing North and West Coast twice. Really thats 4 clubs we should not lose to at all. So you need to factor that in.
you wont get one
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We all know what will happen.
If we have a rubbish 2023, then the bar will get moved from finals being a non-negotiable in 2024 to 2025.
I am expecting 2023 to be on par with 2021 & 2022. I expect to start seeing significant improvement in 2024, making the bottom of the 8 in 2025.
If we finish bottom 4 the knives come out for Nicks.
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I suspect anything less than 10 wins next year and the knives will be out.
- Oct 2, 2022
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Okay - what supports your view, though? Is there a ground-up rebuild that happened faster than 6 years?
- Oct 2, 2022
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"Look at this club that had a lot of great players doing a rebuild".
That's such a weird thing to say. They're NOT rebuilds. That's a bad year and a re-stocking of the list.
Melbourne did a rebuild. Carlton did a rebuild. Gold Coast has built and then rebuilt.
Freo is probably the best example of someone doing it well, and even then I think it will be six years?
That's such a weird thing to say. They're NOT rebuilds. That's a bad year and a re-stocking of the list.
Melbourne did a rebuild. Carlton did a rebuild. Gold Coast has built and then rebuilt.
Freo is probably the best example of someone doing it well, and even then I think it will be six years?
10 wins would be a very good result, better than expected. Anywhere in the 7-9 range is par, depending on our draw (which was incredibly kind in 2022 - with double-up games against both Norf & Weagles).
- Oct 2, 2022
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I'm confident that we will be better than West Coast, North Melbourne and Hawthorn. I think we'll be similar to Essendon, and I think a whole bunch of teams will be at about our level - GWS, St Kilda, GCS, WB - with some actually taking a step forward, and a couple (Freo? Coll, PAPs, Rich?) taking an unexpected step back.
I just don't see us as the "unexpected step forward" team yet.
WaynesWorld19
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That's a reasonable assessment
I'm happy with what's progressed thus far .....but we're now entering year 4 & 5 where there is justly more critical assessment to occur .....both players & coach's
I'm a big Nicks fan, so I'm hoping he can take the next step from competitiveness to Finals contender & wins
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