List Mgmt. 2022 List Management and Trading Thread - Part 2

[Scorpus]

Updated list position



And 2024 as it stands

Spoiler

 

[Big Dub]

you would need a coaching messiah and that ain't happening

 

[Scorpus]

2001 - 5 wins
2002-2004 made Elimination Finals
2005-2006 made GF winning 1 losing another by 1 point

Thats not a 6 year rebuild

It's not a rebuild at all if you miss finals for only 1 or 2 years. Nothing to "rebuild".

Unless you manage to replace 20 players a season

 

[Scorpus]

you would need a coaching messiah and that ain't happening

Not just a coaching messiah, you'd need to have the majority of your best 22 players already on the list before starting the supposed rebuild

 

[GreyCrow]

I just don't think we are looking at a gf in 2024 given where we got ourselves to in 2020.

I think thats easier to see now than it was 2 years ago.

The club really had poor direction from 2018-2020 - it was reacting ( and I blame myself and others on here for ''the noise'' ) but good organisations listen to the noise and filter it out

It seems looking back - we tried bits of this and bits of that and nothing made sense

I am a fan of Burns, Rahilly, etc - still unsure on Nicks

I also think the club were happy for the AFLW side to take the spotlight off the woes of the Mens side - part of this push/pull within the club

I think 8-10 is our minimum goal for 2023

 

[Big Dub]

I think thats easier to see now than it was 2 years ago.

The club really had poor direction from 2018-2020 - it was reacting ( and I blame myself and others on here for ''the noise'' ) but good organisations listen to the noise and filter it out

It seems looking back - we tried bits of this and bits of that and nothing made sense

I am a fan of Burns, Rahilly, etc - still unsure on Nicks

I also think the club were happy for the AFLW side to take the spotlight off the woes of the Mens side - part of this push/pull within the club

I think 8-10 is our minimum goal for 2023

I think that we will improve, but exactly where we land isn't material. We could finish anywhere from 8th to 14th next year, but it would be more about the teams around us than us ourselves.

Our 2nd tier coaches seem as good as we have had. As for Nicks, he's the right guy for now - has rebuilt a broken culture and looks to be good at developing kids. Who knows if he can coach a team to a finals win. Hopefully we find out soon enough.

 

[BigFella!]

Come on mate, this is the reality. I'm not so much upset we aren't contending until 2026 than I am that we weren't contending in 2018 and 2019.

If we had been smarter after the 2017 gf, we wouldn't have even needed a rebuild. But we weren't. Instead, we broke the players and needed a rebuild. We then cut deep and made it a full rebuild (maybe we had already lost the players, maybe it was an additional mistake).

But once we were there, it was going to be a 6 to 8 year journey. Clubs like Melbourne and Carlton, who made similar mistakes, have had even worse timeliness. There is no club that has turned over a list like we have (from a grand final no less) that has gone from bottom to top in 5 years.

Be upset with the mistakes that got us here, but to say it's not where we are is not accepting reality.

The closest I can think of is Hawthorn who finished 15/16 in 2004 and became Premiers in 2008. In 2004 draft they recruited Roughead, Franklin and Lewis in the 1st round and Young in the Rookie Draft, in 2005 draft they recruited Ellis, Birchall, Bailey, Guerra, Gilham and McGlynn, 2006 draft was Renouf and Suckling, 2007 draft was Rioli and Dew. These players were added on top of their 2001 draft haul of Hodge, Ladson, Brown and Mitchell, 2002 Rookie Draft haul of Sewell and Osborne. Admittedly the Hawks in 2008 probably overachieved and it did take them another 2-3 years to constantly dominate other teams. Hawthorn recruited an exceptional young coach in Clarkson, had stable off-field leadership and a recruiting team able to pick enough winners

Geelong in 2003 finished 12/16 before becoming premiers in 2007, 2009 and 2011. What Geelong did was get an exceptional young coach in Mark Thompson followed by Chris Scott, have stable and exceptional off-field leadership and a recruiting team that constantly has hit it out of the park for years.

Hawthorn and Geelong of the early 2000's are the prototypes for building a successful AFL Team. Over the past 5 years there have been question marks over the Crows coaching, question marks over the Crows off-field leadership and question marks over the Crows recruiting and list management. Everyone is human and everyone will make mistakes on a daily basis; the Crows have a history of making more mistakes than the successful clubs and a failure to learn from those mistakes. I will probably get lambasted for saying these things on here, and I seriously hope the Crows can unlock the key to sustained premiership success in the very near future, but the Crows are 5 elite players and another 5 best 22 players short of being a premiership team. Here is hoping the Crows can leverage the 2023 trade and draft window to get the talent needed for the Crows to challenge into 2024 and beyond. Early indications is the 2023 draft is going to be one of the best since 2001.

 

[Big Dub]

The closest I can think of is Hawthorn who finished 15/16 in 2004 and became Premiers in 2008. In 2004 draft they recruited Roughead, Franklin and Lewis in the 1st round and Young in the Rookie Draft, in 2005 draft they recruited Ellis, Birchall, Bailey, Guerra, Gilham and McGlynn, 2006 draft was Renouf and Suckling, 2007 draft was Rioli and Dew. These players were added on top of their 2001 draft haul of Hodge, Ladson, Brown and Mitchell, 2002 Rookie Draft haul of Sewell and Osborne. Admittedly the Hawks in 2008 probably overachieved and it did take them another 2-3 years to constantly dominate other teams. Hawthorn recruited an exceptional young coach in Clarkson, had stable off-field leadership and a recruiting team able to pick enough winners

Geelong in 2003 finished 12/16 before becoming premiers in 2007, 2009 and 2011. What Geelong did was get an exceptional young coach in Mark Thompson followed by Chris Scott, have stable and exceptional off-field leadership and a recruiting team that constantly has hit it out of the park for years.

Hawthorn and Geelong of the early 2000's are the prototypes for building a successful AFL Team. Over the past 5 years there have been question marks over the Crows coaching, question marks over the Crows off-field leadership and question marks over the Crows recruiting and list management. Everyone is human and everyone will make mistakes on a daily basis; the Crows have a history of making more mistakes than the successful clubs and a failure to learn from those mistakes. I will probably get lambasted for saying these things on here, and I seriously hope the Crows can unlock the key to sustained premiership success in the very near future, but the Crows are 5 elite players and another 5 best 22 players short of being a premiership team. Here is hoping the Crows can leverage the 2023 trade and draft window to get the talent needed for the Crows to challenge into 2024 and beyond. Early indications is the 2023 draft is going to be one of the best since 2001.

We may already have those elite/ best 22 players on the list (or not), but won't know until we get them a few years into the system. We will have a few more top 10 draftees/ trades to come too.

 

[Scorpus]

The closest I can think of is Hawthorn who finished 15/16 in 2004 and became Premiers in 2008. In 2004 draft they recruited Roughead, Franklin and Lewis in the 1st round and Young in the Rookie Draft, in 2005 draft they recruited Ellis, Birchall, Bailey, Guerra, Gilham and McGlynn, 2006 draft was Renouf and Suckling, 2007 draft was Rioli and Dew. These players were added on top of their 2001 draft haul of Hodge, Ladson, Brown and Mitchell, 2002 Rookie Draft haul of Sewell and Osborne. Admittedly the Hawks in 2008 probably overachieved and it did take them another 2-3 years to constantly dominate other teams. Hawthorn recruited an exceptional young coach in Clarkson, had stable off-field leadership and a recruiting team able to pick enough winners

Geelong in 2003 finished 12/16 before becoming premiers in 2007, 2009 and 2011. What Geelong did was get an exceptional young coach in Mark Thompson followed by Chris Scott, have stable and exceptional off-field leadership and a recruiting team that constantly has hit it out of the park for years.

Hawthorn and Geelong of the early 2000's are the prototypes for building a successful AFL Team. Over the past 5 years there have been question marks over the Crows coaching, question marks over the Crows off-field leadership and question marks over the Crows recruiting and list management. Everyone is human and everyone will make mistakes on a daily basis; the Crows have a history of making more mistakes than the successful clubs and a failure to learn from those mistakes. I will probably get lambasted for saying these things on here, and I seriously hope the Crows can unlock the key to sustained premiership success in the very near future, but the Crows are 5 elite players and another 5 best 22 players short of being a premiership team. Here is hoping the Crows can leverage the 2023 trade and draft window to get the talent needed for the Crows to challenge into 2024 and beyond. Early indications is the 2023 draft is going to be one of the best since 2001.

So to rebuild a side in record pace (4 years) a team must

1) Hire an all time great coach

2) Nail every single draft during the down years

3) Already have several best 22 elite top end picks on the list before the rebuild starts

4) Be gifted elite players through draft concessions by the AFL

Seems a hard bar for us

 

[rabidcrow]

Sorry what?!?!?

A 3 year rebuild, plus another 2-3 years before you can be in the top 50% of teams is not real

If it were coaches would 6 year deals from the get go

Which is why coaches don’t last rebuilds very often - unless their recruiting teams do a fabulous job (Clarkson - Hawthorn)

People understandably get to frustrated and the pressure causes change

A “rebuild” is not really complete until a core group of those drafted hit 50-80 games. Our 2018 draftees are just coming to 50 games and obviously the 2019-21 draftees are still a couple of seasons from that. Which drags the timelines out. I expect finishing 9-13 next year and 2024 to be 6-10. From there we have a young experienced squad that should be able to contend


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[Vader]

you would need a coaching messiah and that ain't happening

You need more than a coaching messiah to turn our current list into premiership contenders in just 2 years. It's not happening, and there's not a coach on the face of the planet who could make it happen.

 

[Vader]

I think 8-10 is our minimum goal for 2023

8-10 wins, or position 8-10 on the ladder? The former is possible, the latter is extremely optimistic.

 

[Vader]

The closest I can think of is Hawthorn who finished 15/16 in 2004 and became Premiers in 2008. In 2004 draft they recruited Roughead, Franklin and Lewis in the 1st round and Young in the Rookie Draft, in 2005 draft they recruited Ellis, Birchall, Bailey, Guerra, Gilham and McGlynn, 2006 draft was Renouf and Suckling, 2007 draft was Rioli and Dew. These players were added on top of their 2001 draft haul of Hodge, Ladson, Brown and Mitchell, 2002 Rookie Draft haul of Sewell and Osborne. Admittedly the Hawks in 2008 probably overachieved and it did take them another 2-3 years to constantly dominate other teams. Hawthorn recruited an exceptional young coach in Clarkson, had stable off-field leadership and a recruiting team able to pick enough winners

Geelong in 2003 finished 12/16 before becoming premiers in 2007, 2009 and 2011. What Geelong did was get an exceptional young coach in Mark Thompson followed by Chris Scott, have stable and exceptional off-field leadership and a recruiting team that constantly has hit it out of the park for years.

Hawthorn and Geelong of the early 2000's are the prototypes for building a successful AFL Team. Over the past 5 years there have been question marks over the Crows coaching, question marks over the Crows off-field leadership and question marks over the Crows recruiting and list management. Everyone is human and everyone will make mistakes on a daily basis; the Crows have a history of making more mistakes than the successful clubs and a failure to learn from those mistakes. I will probably get lambasted for saying these things on here, and I seriously hope the Crows can unlock the key to sustained premiership success in the very near future, but the Crows are 5 elite players and another 5 best 22 players short of being a premiership team. Here is hoping the Crows can leverage the 2023 trade and draft window to get the talent needed for the Crows to challenge into 2024 and beyond. Early indications is the 2023 draft is going to be one of the best since 2001.

Don't forget that the Geelong premiership teams were built around players drafted in 1999 (Corey, Chapman, Ling, Enright), and 2001 (Bartel, Johnson, Ablett, Kelly). Just because they bottomed out in 2003, doesn't mean that's when the rebuild began.

Similarly, (as noted by BigFella!), many of Hawthorn's pieces were already on their list before they "bottomed out".

Bottoming out usually happens 2-3 years AFTER the rebuild commences. Sometimes bottoming out is the trigger for the rebuild, but usually it's a result of the rebuild's progress.

 

[Sanders]

It's hardly excuse making if I'm blaming the decisions of the club for getting us here.

Yeah you are: like anyone inanely preaching patience, what you really mean is you see more clearly than everyone else.

As for West coast:

• Fell from 5th to 14th in 2000. Won the flag in 2006 (6 year rebuild)

So a rebuild is to a flag now. Just going to ignore finals in 2002, 2003, 2004 and a grand final in 2005 huh?

• Fell from 3rd to 15th in 2008. Won a flag in 2018 (10 years)

There you go again, conveniently ignoring the Grand final in 2011. Which you knew but decided not to mention

We would all love to be playing for a flag 5 years into a rebuild, but we would be the first.

But that doesn't mean that I don't feel your frustration. I absolutely do.

Well we’re not west coast or geelong are we?

 

[Sanders]

Wasn't a full rebuild either (but take your point).

I just don't think we are looking at a gf in 2024 given where we got ourselves to in 2020.

Did you really think you wouldn’t get caught out with that one?

 

[Sanders]

Which is why coaches don’t last rebuilds very often - unless their recruiting teams do a fabulous job (Clarkson - Hawthorn)

People understandably get to frustrated and the pressure causes change

A “rebuild” is not really complete until a core group of those drafted hit 50-80 games. Our 2018 draftees are just coming to 50 games and obviously the 2019-21 draftees are still a couple of seasons from that. Which drags the timelines out. I expect finishing 9-13 next year and 2024 to be 6-10. From there we have a young experienced squad that should be able to contend


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This invented mythology around 60-80 games isn’t a thing.

It’s just a platitude, an empty slogan

 

[GreyCrow]

8-10 wins, or position 8-10 on the ladder? The former is possible, the latter is extremely optimistic.

8-10 ladder. May as well shut the joint if we accept less

 

[Sanders]

The closest I can think of is Hawthorn who finished 15/16 in 2004 and became Premiers in 2008. In 2004 draft they recruited Roughead, Franklin and Lewis in the 1st round and Young in the Rookie Draft, in 2005 draft they recruited Ellis, Birchall, Bailey, Guerra, Gilham and McGlynn, 2006 draft was Renouf and Suckling, 2007 draft was Rioli and Dew. These players were added on top of their 2001 draft haul of Hodge, Ladson, Brown and Mitchell, 2002 Rookie Draft haul of Sewell and Osborne. Admittedly the Hawks in 2008 probably overachieved and it did take them another 2-3 years to constantly dominate other teams. Hawthorn recruited an exceptional young coach in Clarkson, had stable off-field leadership and a recruiting team able to pick enough winners

Hawthorn made a preliminary final in 2001.

It then had priority picks in 2004/2005 for winning 5 games or less in each season

In 2006 they won 9 games
In 2007 they made finals and won 1 against us
2008…

The idea that we should expect a rebuild, which we never planned for, to last 6-8 years is cloud cuckoo land stuff

 

[Sanders]

So to rebuild a side in record pace (4 years) a team must

1) Hire an all time great coach

2) Nail every single draft during the down years

3) Already have several best 22 elite top end picks on the list before the rebuild starts

4) Be gifted elite players through draft concessions by the AFL

Seems a hard bar for us

You think hawthorn nailed the 2002,3,5,6 drafts?

Top 10 picks:
Luke Brennan
Xavier Ellis
Beau Dowler
Mitch Thorpe

 

[Big Dub]

Yeah you are: like anyone inanely preaching patience, what you really mean is you see more clearly than everyone else.



So a rebuild is to a flag now. Just going to ignore finals in 2002, 2003, 2004 and a grand final in 2005 huh?




There you go again, conveniently ignoring the Grand final in 2011. Which you knew but decided not to mention




Well we’re not west coast or geelong are we?

Let's just agree to disagree.

I don't think that we will be contending for a flag before 2026. You do.

Hopefully I am wrong and you are right. I'll even buy you (and anyone else) beers if you are.

 

[Scorpus]

You think hawthorn nailed the 2002,3,5,6 drafts?

Top 10 picks:
Luke Brennan
Xavier Ellis
Beau Dowler
Mitch Thorpe

They drafted 8 premiership players in those years. Sure a few of them were role players but they didn't have any write off drafts except 2003 where they traded pick 10 for premiership player Trent Croad

 

[Sanders]

Let's just agree to disagree.

I don't think that we will be contending for a flag before 2026. You do.

I’ve said nothing of the sort and nor have I even vaguely hinted that.

 

[Sanders]

They drafted 8 premiership players in those years. Sure a few of them were role players but they didn't have any write off drafts except 2003 where they traded pick 10 for premiership player Trent Croad

Premiership players is a meaningless term

 

[Big Dub]

I’ve said nothing of the sort and nor have I even vaguely hinted that.

Then what is your position?

 

[crow2crow]

Then what is your position?

Dont waste your breath you wont get one

 

[Mostyn]

Then what is your position?

That we should and can, but we shan't and won't.

That it's very possible, but our innate shitness means that we won't do something many other clubs could.

Personally, I think the vast majority of examples support your point. The deeper the rebuild, the longer it takes and most seem to be closer to six years than four.