List Mgmt. 2022 List Management and Trading Thread - Part 2

[Scorpus]

Updated list position



And 2024 as it stands

Spoiler

 

[WeeBlake]

I can’t work out whether sanders

a.genuinely thinks we’ll be good this year, or
b. thinks we should be good this year given a realistic assessment of our list
c. thinks we should be good this year given the picks we’ve had over the last x years but won’t be because we botched them
d. is saying the club says we should be good this year, and therefore should be judged harshly for their failure to meet their own standards when we inevitably have a pretty bad year.

 

[George Kramer]

I am expecting 2023 to be on par with 2021 & 2022. I expect to start seeing significant improvement in 2024, making the bottom of the 8 in 2025.

Your expectations are different to the clubs

 

[Dangarman]

Interesting discussion, going last to a flag. Here are the stats from recent history:

Team/year finished last/year won flag
Brisbane '98 to '01
WC '10 to '18
Richmond '07 to '17
Collingwood '99 to '10
Sydney '94 to '05
Melbourne '09 to '21
Dogs '03 to '16

So of the last 22 grand finals -
The seven above by teams coming off a spoon
Five saw repeat flags for Bris (x2), Syd (x1) and Rich (x2)
Eight were won by Geelong or Hawthorn who last finished bottom in 1965 and 1958 respectively
The remaining 2 were won by Port in 2004 who have never finished bottom, and West Coast who hadn't finished bottom prior to the 2006 flag

Yes, over a third of those premiership cups reside in one of two trophy cabinets.

 

[Sanders]

Okay - what supports your view, though? Is there a ground-up rebuild that happened faster than 6 years?

Sorry, what is this “ground up” or “deep” rebuild you speak of?

We didn’t even sign up a rebuild of any kind, and now you want to invent new types to justify slow progress?

“It’s ok, because this is different because ‘checks notes’… just because”

Nicks was hired to oversee a little spring cleaning on the list, a bit of a refresh.

Because we’ve fallen far further than intended or expected, it’s ok?

It’s not OK.

 

[Carmo]

This invented mythology around 60-80 games isn’t a thing.

It’s just a platitude, an empty slogan

If its not a thing then why didn't Gold Coast and GWS dominate from year 1? They had access to unprecedented amounts of draft talent. Why didn't they dominate even in years 2-3 (by yrs 3 they've got three lots of high draft talent, enough to fill a team, plus 2 seasons into the earliest talent)?

 

[Sanders]

"Look at this club that had a lot of great players doing a rebuild".

That's such a weird thing to say. They're NOT rebuilds. That's a bad year and a re-stocking of the list.

Melbourne did a rebuild. Carlton did a rebuild. Gold Coast has built and then rebuilt.

Freo is probably the best example of someone doing it well, and even then I think it will be six years?

Change is coming to the Crows - but off-field reinvention won't be easy - InDaily

indaily.com.au

“Board member Mark Ricciuto, the chair of Adelaide’s list-management committee, continues to publicly endorse Reid and Crows recruiting manager Hamish Ogilvie who he describes as “one of the most respected recruiters” in the AFL.​

​

“Hamish is going to have his biggest draft hand (since joining Adelaide in November 2006),” said Ricciuto, with the Crows anticipating having five top-20 picks in the delayed national draft.​

​

“There is no guarantee (with drafting), but the one benefit from having a bad season is you do get access to the better talent, even in a compromised draft. There is clear evidence that top-four teams are built on a core group of draftees from the first half-dozen picks and from the first round of a draft.”​

Slow progress isn’t because of some misalignment of expectations, it’s because we have blown too many high draft picks.

 

[Sanders]

If its not a thing then why didn't Gold Coast and GWS dominate from year 1? They had access to unprecedented amounts of draft talent. Why didn't they dominate even in years 2-3 (by yrs 3 they've got three lots of high draft talent, enough to fill a team, plus 2 seasons into the earliest talent)?

Of course you’d believe in bumper stickers

 

[rabidcrow]

I can’t work out whether sanders

a.genuinely thinks we’ll be good this year, or
b. thinks we should be good this year given a realistic assessment of our list
c. thinks we should be good this year given the picks we’ve had over the last x years but won’t be because we botched them
d. is saying the club says we should be good this year, and therefore should be judged harshly for their failure to meet their own standards when we inevitably have a pretty bad year.

C

But possibly D




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Sanders]

I can’t work out whether sanders

a.genuinely thinks we’ll be good this year, or

Given he’s never said that, you should be able to work it out

b. thinks we should be good this year given a realistic assessment of our list

Still never said it, so… probably doesn’t think it

c. thinks we should be good this year given the picks we’ve had over the last x years but won’t be because we botched them

Close, but haven’t said that either, so…

d. is saying the club says we should be good this year, and therefore should be judged harshly for their failure to meet their own standards when we inevitably have a pretty bad year.

Now, you’ve made it to bits I have said.

That it’s not ok to just presume that there is no expectation, and actually we are on a different, slower timeline when the club has given very clear indications of what sign posts it’s operating to. Which is that it expects to see real progress now, not in another 2-3 years

 

[Sanders]

Your expectations are different to the clubs

Exactly!

 

[Scorpus]

Your expectations are different to the clubs

Is what the club has said publicly what they actually believe or what they're selling to members so they renew memberships and show up?

Very difficult to tell supporters we will suck for about 7 years

 

[Mostyn]

Sorry, what is this “ground up” or “deep” rebuild you speak of?

We didn’t even sign up a rebuild of any kind, and now you want to invent new types to justify slow progress?

“It’s ok, because this is different because ‘checks notes’… just because”

Nicks was hired to oversee a little spring cleaning on the list, a bit of a refresh.

Because we’ve fallen far further than intended or expected, it’s ok?

It’s not OK.

C'mon - you're being disingenuous.

The Crows have been more open about this being a major rebuild that just about any club previously.

We let a series of players go because they weren't right for a rebuilding side, not because they didn't have something to offer a contender. We've cut very deeply into the list, and maintained almost the minimum possible mature players to assist the rebuild.

I don't think anyone inside or outside the club wouldn't consider this to have been a major rebuild.

If you're not willing to acknowledge that, then I think you're just having a bit of a troll.

 

[Mostyn]

Is what the club has said publicly what they actually believe or what they're selling to members so they renew memberships and show up?

Very difficult to tell supporters we will suck for about 7 years

The club's actions show exactly where they feel where were at and what they were trying to do.

A couple of positive platitudes in a press release are completely meaningless. They're never going to say that things are hopeless and they're tanking.

If we still had Greenwood on our list, you could argue our actions were of a team thinking they were ready to contest for a final's position again. But that's the exact opposite of what we've done.

 

[Scorpus]

The club's actions show exactly where they feel where were at and what they were trying to do.

A couple of positive platitudes in a press release are completely meaningless. They're never going to say that things are hopeless and they're tanking.

If we still had Greenwood on our list, you could argue our actions were of a team thinking they were ready to contest for a final's position again. But that's the exact opposite of what we've done.

I agree, it's difficult to say the club didn't plan or want a rebuild while at the same time we delisted or traded out most of our senior players over a 2-3 year period.

It's not an accident we gutted the list and have one of the youngest squads

 

[Sanders]

The Crows have been more open about this being a major rebuild that just about any club previously.

Lol. I almost fell for it until I saw this.

 

[Vader]

I agree, it's difficult to say the club didn't plan or want a rebuild while at the same time we delisted or traded out most of our senior players over a 2-3 year period.

It's not an accident we gutted the list and have one of the youngest squads

For the last two years it hasn't been "one of the youngest squads", it's been "the youngest squad" - and our selected team was youngest in the H&A season for 22 of 22 rounds last year.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Hawthorn made a preliminary final in 2001.

It then had priority picks in 2004/2005 for winning 5 games or less in each season

In 2006 they won 9 games
In 2007 they made finals and won 1 against us
2008…

The idea that we should expect a rebuild, which we never planned for, to last 6-8 years is cloud cuckoo land stuff

That depends on where you want to measure the "rebuild" start and end.

We had some higher end picks in '18 and '19 but didn't play a young team either of those years, and didn't really go hard at turning over the list until the 2019 off-season.

I'm not sure when hawthorn starting turning over heavily, but for the sake of simplicity, lets say that the rebuild is based on when the team is no longer in finals.

From 2002-2006, Hawthorn missed finals 5 consecutive years, and won 41 out of 110 games. In 2006, they won 9 games with a percentage of 86%

Crows 2018-2022, won 40 out of 105. In 2022, we won 8 game at 87%.


Do I think we will make finals in 2023?

No, we're probably too young, even if Nicks was decent. I can see us playing finals in 2024 though, and if we don't Nicks will be gone if he isn't already).

Can't really compare ourselves with the peak that Hawthorn had but in terms of progression and finals i think we're only one year behind.

Of course Hawthorn also brought in Hodge and a priority pick, plus had the potential goat coach.

Has our rebuild gone smoothly? No.

Have we screwed it as badly as you're pretending?
I don't think so, but it's actually still too early to tell. But it's certainly not time for panic stations.

 

[skam85]

I can’t work out whether sanders

a.genuinely thinks we’ll be good this year, or
b. thinks we should be good this year given a realistic assessment of our list
c. thinks we should be good this year given the picks we’ve had over the last x years but won’t be because we botched them
d. is saying the club says we should be good this year, and therefore should be judged harshly for their failure to meet their own standards when we inevitably have a pretty bad year.

all of the above

 

[Thetrader15]

Hawthorn made a preliminary final in 2001.

It then had priority picks in 2004/2005 for winning 5 games or less in each season

In 2006 they won 9 games
In 2007 they made finals and won 1 against us
2008…

The idea that we should expect a rebuild, which we never planned for, to last 6-8 years is cloud cuckoo land stuff

Hawks:
2002: 11-11
2003: 12-10
2004: 4-18
2005: 5-17
2006: 9-13
2007: 14-10

In 2004 and 2005, they went hard at the draft with 7 first round picks over those 2 years, including 2 priority picks in the top 3.

I'd argue they were thus given a bonus 2 year head start due to the AFL rules, so their rebuild was faster than any other team. In fact, was it a rebuild or a refresh?

 

[GROTTO]

Hawks:

2004: 4-18
2005: 5-17

In 2004 and 2005, they went hard at the draft with 7 first round picks over those 2 years, including 2 priority picks in the top 3.

I'd argue they were thus given a bonus 2 year head start due to the AFL rules, so their rebuild was faster than any other team. In fact, was it a rebuild or a refresh?

FMD

The VFL manufactured a true Victorian fairytale flag right there.

 

[Thetrader15]

FMD

The VFL manufactured a true Victorian fairytale flag right there.

2004:

And then Ryan Griffin was part of the Tom Boyd trade to the Dogs. Fairytale part 2.

 

[Carmo]

In 2004 and 2005, they went hard at the draft with 7 first round picks over those 2 years, including 2 priority picks in the top 3.

I'd argue they were thus given a bonus 2 year head start due to the AFL rules, so their rebuild was faster than any other team. In fact, was it a rebuild or a refresh?

Meanwhile when we finished down the bottom the AFL randomly decided to give GC a bonus first round pick, relegating us back one, and our later ones back a bit as well.

They also now get priority access to the players in the north of Australia which used to be a fertile hunting ground for us.

Then when we had pick 1 the best player in the land wasn't available to us due to NGA rules.

Yep, no doubt, we get a tonne of assistance from the AFL.

 

[GROTTO]

Then when we had pick 1 the best player in the land wasn't available to us due to NGA rules.

Will be interesting how the careers of TT and JUH pan out over the years in comparison.

 

[Crow-eater]

Crows list update

An update ahead of the National Draft this month

www.afc.com.au

Butts and Strachan being upgraded

Seeds and McPherson being delisted and re-rookied.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Seeds and McPherson being delisted and re-rookied.