List Mgmt. 2023 Draft & Trade Hypotheticals

[Ticky009]

Key Dates:

Trade Period, October 6–18

• Restricted & Unrestricted Free Agency Period: Friday, October 6, 9am – Friday October 13, 5pm (bid matching ends Monday October 16, 5pm)
• Trade Period (1), picks & players: Monday, October 9, 9am – Wednesday October 18, 7.30pm

Quiet Period, October 19–November 20

• Trade Period (2), picks only: Monday, October 23, 9am – Friday November 10, 5pm
• List Lodgement 1*: Tuesday, October 31, 2pm
• Delisted Free Agency Period (1): Wednesday, November 1, 9am – Wednesday November 8, 5pm
• Delisted Free Agency Period (2): Friday, November 10, 9am–5pm
• List Lodgement 2*: Tuesday, November 14, 2pm

Draft Period, November 20–22

• Round 1 of the National Draft: Monday, November 20, time and venue TBA
• Trade Period (3), picks only: Tuesday, November 21, 5.45pm–6.30pm
• Round 2–end of the National Draft: Tuesday, November 21, 7pm until completion
• Rookie Promotions: Tuesday, November 21, after the National Draft
• Delisted Free Agency Period (3): Tuesday, November 21, after the National Draft
• List Lodgement 3*: Wednesday, November 22, 10am (optional; required for those participating in the PSD)
• Pre-Season Draft: Wednesday, November 22, 3pm
• Rookie Draft: Wednesday, November 22, 3.20pm
• Final List Lodgement*: Thursday, November 23, 4pm

* List lodgement dates are yet to be made public, so are approximate based on past history and the requirements of the AFL Rules. When lists are lodged, the number of players on the list must not exceed maximum list sizes. At the same time, clubs must provide the AFL with estimates of total player payments in the current and following year, which must prove the club is not and will not exceed the salary cap. (AFL Rules 5.3, 6.1, 6.8, 7.2, 7.9)

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I don't think that is a given. We could quite conceivably have a 2nd pick before the bid.... then considering there are 6 Hawthorn and Doggies picks between our 2nd + 3rd that will vanish, a 3rd live pick is not out of the question either.

But, tactics could play a part here. Bid early on Cleary and 8 picks out of 12 might disappear - ours, Dogs and Hawks

IMO, Cleary has a fairly exposed ceiling, I don't see a bid coming in the first 2 rounds.

Agree maybe a late second but thats about right for Cleary

 

[Dan87]

I think you guys are on the lower end

Cleary was all australian inside mid, first round is going for ever, few inside mids. I understand he's shown limited versatility but the draft looks rougher than usual. I think he's second round onwards. Not surprised if he's in the second round

 

[Kiama Chris]

Agree maybe a late second but thats about right for Cleary

The big question is who will bid on Cleary to force our match? From 30 onwards not counting GC, Dogs or Hawks:
Lions, Bombers, Pies, Freo, Bombers, Eagles, Lions, Saints, Tigers, Dees, GWS at 43 (notionally) but lower with the matching picks dropping out. I doubt anyone before GWS probably at a real 37.
He might slide beyond that!

 

[caesar88]

I don't think that is a given. We could quite conceivably have a 2nd pick before the bid.... then considering there are 6 Hawthorn and Doggies picks between our 2nd + 3rd that will vanish, a 3rd live pick is not out of the question either.

But, tactics could play a part here. Bid early on Cleary and 8 picks out of 12 might disappear - ours, Dogs and Hawks

IMO, Cleary has a fairly exposed ceiling, I don't see a bid coming in the first 2 rounds.

How can we be talking about an 18 year old's "ceiling"?

 

[mtooler]

I think you guys are on the lower end

Cleary was all australian inside mid, first round is going for ever, few inside mids. I understand he's shown limited versatility but the draft looks rougher than usual. I think he's second round onwards. Not surprised if he's in the second round

I haven't seen him pop up anywhere on top 30 articles in AFL draft reviews. I hope he'll be just after 30 and hope the other clubs just let him slide for us.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

The big question is who will bid on Cleary to force our match? From 30 onwards not counting GC, Dogs or Hawks:
Lions, Bombers, Pies, Freo, Bombers, Eagles, Lions, Saints, Tigers, Dees, GWS at 43 (notionally) but lower with the matching picks dropping out. I doubt anyone before GWS probably at a real 37.
He might slide beyond that!

Essendon do need mids but I agree actually. He’ll slide more than many think. GWS surely don’t need mids especially inside ones. WCE might see him “best available”

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I haven't seen him pop up anywhere on top 30 articles in AFL draft reviews. I hope he'll be just after 30 and hope the other clubs just let him slide for us.

I can’t see him going before 30, could be anywhere from 35-50, with the latter being the latest for us. Ideally it would be fantastic if he’s not bid on we can match via the rookie or whatever potentially take a swing at another tall later in the draft

 

[.Shotties.]

I won't be shedding any tears for them DQ. As you would know better than most, Freo are one of the many clubs that have a distinct advantage over the Northern clubs when it comes to the draft. In the last two drafts alone, there have been a combined 15 West Australians taken in the first two rounds. By comparison, there has been 1 from NSW & Queensland combined.

That's before you get to their advantage in the trade period, where their own go-home factor has helped them land Luke Jackson, Jaeger O'Meara, Brad Hill, Jesse Hogan and a number of others.

As for their losses, in recent times Hill, Hogan, Liam Henry, Blake Acres, Griffin Logue and Rory Lobb have all requested trades out of Freo. They're all West Australians.

I was actually in an extended conversation with a Collingwood fan a few days ago who was swearing blind that there was no or little disadvantage in where we were located or the fact that there were no elite juniors in the area. After claiming Sydney hadn't suffered any go-home losses, which then shifted to not being more affected than anyone, he then cited Fremantle as an example of a club having more disadvantages than us in terms of player access. I stopped then.

 

[caesar88]

I was actually in an extended conversation with a Collingwood fan a few days ago who was swearing blind that there was no or little disadvantage in where we were located or the fact that there were no elite juniors in the area. After claiming Sydney hadn't suffered any go-home losses, which then shifted to not being more affected than anyone, he then cited Fremantle as an example of a club having more disadvantages than us in terms of player access. I stopped them.

With an uppercut or a right hook?

 

[.Shotties.]

With an uppercut or a right hook?

They really need to shift the N and M key.

 

[TheMase]

trying to flog Wicks off was the most telling sign of Horse having entered desperate and dateless land.

shyte,who knows he may give Wayward a stern look when he continues to lose us games by bottling kicks for goal.

you have no idea who tried to sell who off

Most likely we offered a 1 year deal and he went to see if he could get a better deal and there weren’t many, if any takers.

 

[tombomb]

I was actually in an extended conversation with a Collingwood fan a few days ago who was swearing blind that there was no or little disadvantage in where we were located or the fact that there were no elite juniors in the area. After claiming Sydney hadn't suffered any go-home losses, which then shifted to not being more affected than anyone, he then cited Fremantle as an example of a club having more disadvantages than us in terms of player access. I stopped then.

The problem with this discussion is that a lot of supporters see the advantages other teams get, but not the ones their own team gets - and that goes for our own supporters as well.

Northern Academies are an advantage, but not being able to target NSW players from other clubs and having to struggle to keep players you draft is a disadvantage.

For Freo being able to target WA players is an advantage, but virtually zero non WA players wanting to go there is a disadvantage.

But for big Victorian clubs, there are almost no disadvantages. They have a huge pool to choose from and nearly every player wants to go there. It's a boulevard of green lights.

 

[.Shotties.]

The problem with this discussion is that a lot of supporters see the advantages other teams get, but not the ones their own team gets - and that goes for our own supporters as well.

Northern Academies are an advantage, but not being able to target NSW players from other clubs and having to struggle to keep players you draft is a disadvantage.

For Freo being able to target WA players is an advantage, but virtually zero non WA players wanting to go there is a disadvantage.

But for big Victorian clubs, there are almost no disadvantages. They have a huge pool to choose from and nearly every player wants to go there. It's a boulevard of green lights.

I mean, my philosophy has always been similar to what you said. That the academies are an advantage that offsets a pretty serious disadvantage. 3 players from Greater Sydney in 30 years before the academies and one player returning to Sydney in the same period. I often pose the question to people arguing this if they would have 30 years of building a list from 80-90% interstate players and without access to players returning home before they got an academy in an equivalent area to Wollongong or the Hunter. Haven't gotten a straight answer yet.

 

[caesar88]

The problem with this discussion is that a lot of supporters see the advantages other teams get, but not the ones their own team gets - and that goes for our own supporters as well.

Northern Academies are an advantage, but not being able to target NSW players from other clubs and having to struggle to keep players you draft is a disadvantage.

For Freo being able to target WA players is an advantage, but virtually zero non WA players wanting to go there is a disadvantage.

But for big Victorian clubs, there are almost no disadvantages. They have a huge pool to choose from and nearly every player wants to go there. It's a boulevard of green lights.

The Victorians' disadvantage would be at trade time when trying to attract Victorian players home. You aren't trying to beat out one other rival like the non-Victorian teams do, you're trying to beat out up to 9 other rivals.

 

[tombomb]

The Victorians' disadvantage would be at trade time when trying to attract Victorian players home. You aren't trying to beat out one other rival like the non-Victorian teams do, you're trying to beat out up to 9 other rivals.

Except there aren't usually 9 rivals, there are 1 or 2 who you compete with. And then when you add in the size of the pool it becomes kind of irrelevant. And if you miss out, you can just move on to the next player who wants to be traded to a Victorian club.

And like with Grundy and Dunkley, on the rare occasion that a good player is actually willing to move interstate, you are competing not just with the other team in your city but the other states as well.

 

[tombomb]

I mean, my philosophy has always been similar to what you said. That the academies are an advantage that offsets a pretty serious disadvantage. 3 players from Greater Sydney in 30 years before the academies and one player returning to Sydney in the same period. I often pose the question to people arguing this if they would have 30 years of building a list from 80-90% interstate players and without access to players returning home before they got an academy in an equivalent area to Wollongong or the Hunter. Haven't gotten a straight answer yet.

And then you throw in that all the non NSW/QLD teams have been treating GWS and Gold Coast as a training academy since they were brought in and our academy it all starts to level out.

Personally, I'd be happy to just have a totally pure 1st round of the draft, no bidding/compensation/priority picks. But Victorian clubs are never going to give up F/S access, so we would be absolute mugs to be agreeing to any changes.

 

[Ticky009]

The big question is who will bid on Cleary to force our match? From 30 onwards not counting GC, Dogs or Hawks:
Lions, Bombers, Pies, Freo, Bombers, Eagles, Lions, Saints, Tigers, Dees, GWS at 43 (notionally) but lower with the matching picks dropping out. I doubt anyone before GWS probably at a real 37.
He might slide beyond that!

Dogs interviewed him for about 2 hrs I'm told. So if a bid comes it might be from them.

 

[caesar88]

Except there aren't usually 9 rivals, there are 1 or 2 who you compete with. And then when you add in the size of the pool it becomes kind of irrelevant. And if you miss out, you can just move on to the next player who wants to be traded to a Victorian club.

And like with Grundy and Dunkley, on the rare occasion that a good player is actually willing to move interstate, you are competing not just with the other team in your city but the other states as well.

That's very true.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

The problem with this discussion is that a lot of supporters see the advantages other teams get, but not the ones their own team gets - and that goes for our own supporters as well.

Northern Academies are an advantage, but not being able to target NSW players from other clubs and having to struggle to keep players you draft is a disadvantage.

For Freo being able to target WA players is an advantage, but virtually zero non WA players wanting to go there is a disadvantage.

But for big Victorian clubs, there are almost no disadvantages. They have a huge pool to choose from and nearly every player wants to go there. It's a boulevard of green lights.

I largely agree - although temper it a bit by pointing out that WA (and the WAFL colts) produce a very substantial pool of top-20 draft talent each and evey year.

West Coast's list management in recent years has been absolutely abysmal. And Freo has a shocking track record of trade and drafting clangers.

Further, its not quite true that no non-WA players want to go there. To some, Perth is a very attractive lifestyle destination.

Having said that - it does seem that more players these days want to "stay home" AND they have more power in dictating where they go (Perkins and Horne-Francis proved it).

The Victorian advantage has thereby been heightened in recent years.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Dogs interviewed him for about 2 hrs I'm told. So if a bid comes it might be from them.

Checking their current picks if Croft goes around where expected (11-16) they will use up all their later picks to match him and have nothing to bid on Cleary with. They only have Pick 5, 48, 50, 52, 56..... They would need to take a risk to trade up into the second or earlier third round.

 

[BloodySwan]

If we're still after depth we could do a lot worse than Riley Bonner

36

Riley Bonner

Age

27

Ht

190cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.2

4star

K

12.1

4star

HB

5.2

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.4

3star

MG

279.8

4star

D

12.3

3star

K

10.3

4star

HB

2.0

1star

M

3.5

3star

T

1.3

2star

MG

279.8

4star

D

21.4

5star

K

14.0

5star

HB

7.4

5star

M

5.0

5star

T

2.0

4star

 

[anotherletdown]

How can we be talking about an 18 year old's "ceiling"?

You don't think recruiters do?

 

[tombomb]

I largely agree - although temper it a bit by pointing out that WA (and the WAFL colts) produce a very substantial pool of top-20 draft talent each and evey year.

West Coast's list management in recent years has been absolutely abysmal. And Freo has a shocking track record of trade and drafting clangers.

Further, its not quite true that no non-WA players want to go there. To some, Perth is a very attractive lifestyle destination.

Having said that - it does seem that more players these days want to "stay home" AND they have more power in dictating where they go (Perkins and Horne-Francis proved it).

The Victorian advantage has thereby been heightened in recent years.

It's a pretty short list of good non-WA players who have willingly been traded to Freo or the Eagles.

 

[anotherletdown]

Checking their current picks if Croft goes around where expected (11-16) they will use up all their later picks to match him and have nothing to bid on Cleary with. They only have Pick 5, 48, 50, 52, 56..... They would need to take a risk to trade up into the second or earlier third round.

They traded out their future first, they'll have to hold a future 2nd and 3rd. Not sure where the currency comes from

 

[caesar88]

You don't think recruiters do?

I wouldn't have thought so.

If anything I'd have thought what they'd be discussing is the very opposite of a ceiling. They'd be trying to find the very best player they can. Pretty hard to do that if you're looking at them through the lens of what they won't be, rather than what they could be.

I think fans could do with adopting the same mentality. There is so much talk of players ceilings on here it puts a DIY plastering page on the Bunnings site to shame.