Preview 2023 Elimination Final - Carlton vs Sydney Friday 8th Sept 7.50PM @ MCG

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Team is in …


IN: Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Marc Pittonet
OUT: Paddy Dow, Corey Durdin, Zac Fisher, Ollie Hollands


After starting the last game as sub, Caleb Marchbank has been elevated into the starting 22.








Backs:Brodie KempJacob WeiteringNic Newman
Half-backs:Alex CincottaMitch McGovernAdam Saad
Centreline:Blake AcresPatrick CrippsSam Docherty
Half-forwards:Jack MartinHarry McKayDavid Cuningham
Forwards:Lachie FogartyCharlie CurnowMatthew Owies
Followers:Marc PittonetAdam CerraSam Walsh
Interchange:Matthew CottrellTom De KoningGeorge Hewett
Caleb Marchbank
Emergencies:Paddy DowZac FisherOllie Hollands
Jesse Motlop
 

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We brought in Fisher when McGovern was out. Now that McGovern is back, Fisher shouldn't be playing.
I don't understand the need to have Fisher's role, he practically has no opponent in the backline, leaving holes and somebody has to do extra work to cover it.
Our backline was pretty solid without Fisher before so let's go back to that.

The forward line was dysfunctional as the experiement playing Harry as ruck relief meant that Carlton was down a tall in the forward line - far far too often. This had a number of negative structural consequences that were exploited by GWS to great effect.

1. Charlie was covered very easily as there was no second target far too often - eg how many times was Owies targetted for entries and lost every one on one marking contest? No second tall allowed GWS the luxury of choosing to double team Martin - the default second marking target of consequence- -he ended up with I think one mark for the whole game. Easy intercept marks and easy contested mark wins- pretty mcuh negated small forrward perssure and ( worse still)

2. The forward high press became exploitable because GWS were able to use taller marking targets to get over the press - especially when Acres was subbed off. This allowed repeat rebound goals - something we havent seen workl against Carlton since July.

3. Compounding the forward line dysfunction - making every player bar Charlie the Coleman medalist look bog ordinary - was the dysfunctional midfield set up. Acres and Dow were the two best performing mids - you can give some leave pass to Cerra and Walsh coming back from a long lay-off, Walsh was a turnvoer merchant and running around burning team mates - Cerra was effective in clinches but ineffective with kicks and Hewett seemed to be a man lacking a mission. TDK battled manfully and played well- Harry was dangerously ineffective as the relief ruck- and GWS literally ran over the Carlton midfiled as the game wore on.

4. which leads me to the Fisher repsonse. Given lack of forward pressure effectiveness, given easy rebound along the lalnks, and given hard ball get loss to GWS the defensive structure was severely tested - the corridor entries for repeat goals testamentt to midfield collapse.

SO yeah Fisher didnt have a very good day and I dont think he is a natural defender - for all sorts of reasons- but he wasnt alone in being exposed by the upfield weakness- lets not forget GWS are a pretty complete team in the forward line.

Thats how I saw the match from a structural perspective - it doesn't take much to hand over a win based on inability to match up -but the Pittonet is redundant view was tested - and failed. IMO leading to all sorts of issues across all areas of the ground - because his presence allows for other things to happen.

Cripps and Docherty were big outs- I dont think Motlop would have made much difference excpet maybe finishing better and being able to kick from 50 - but as a target - he is only as tall as Owies and Durdin - midget forwards along with Fogarty -= in simple terms their taller defensive capability intercepted Carlton out of the game.

I wouldnt be blaming player much based on this game - but no doubt quite a few players were not able to match their direct opponents - for one reaosn or another - and that is all it takes to cop a loss.

oh and one final observation - the whole - stack the team with faster runners- was a massive fail - if you dont win the ball and stop the run of opposition - you've got nothing.
 
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Fisher has been excellent, but he was awful last night. Unaccountable, fumbled often, and poor in the contest. On numerous occasions he was caught out trying to be way too aggressive, leaving his man alone out the back. Put simply, when our pressure from the midfield dropped off, he was exposed.

I would feel much more comfortable playing Boyd on the likes of Wicks, Hayward, or Papley etc - who are all excellent in the marking contest.
Fisher has been like that the whole time since he’s come back in. I only know because I watched first crack after he’s first game back in and the highlighted on the show how poor he is defending
 
The forward line was dysfunctional as the experiement playing Harry as ruck relief meant that Carlton was down a tall in the forward line - far far too often. This had a number of negative structural consequences that were exploited by GWS to great effect.
The way GWS accomplished that was a combination of our increasingly dim-witted approach to roving packs due to game intensity/fatigue, and a defensive screen involving as many as 5 GWS defenders the likes of which I've never seen before, and I question why the umpires never called them out on it.

They basically made it impossible to rove Charlie, and forced him to try and take mark of the year to bring the ball down, with an arm over pretty much every possible forward and mid trying to get into the area. It was like watching a bunch of bouncers try and make a ring around a celebrity... how the **** is that not against the rules of the game??
 

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The way GWS accomplished that was a combination of our increasingly dim-witted approach to roving packs, and a defensive screen involving as many as 5 GWS defenders the likes of which I've never seen before, and question why the umpires never called them out on it.

They basically made it impossible to rove Charlie, and forced him to try and take mark of the year to bring the ball down.

Charlie is going to get scragged every game and all forwards you shouLD expect similar 'finals' type treatment EG hary went on a flop athon last night and got paid zero for his acting - and when the only marking options you have are four short blokes- you are going to get exploited , outmarked and rebounded - GWS are an extremely competent defensive outfit- the stats show it- and they were missing their best defender for the match. Their advantages were not only height but also class.

IMO : Carlton is at its most dangerous when you have Charlie, Harry and TDK scaring the opposition and giving our smalls the time to crumb and hassle the ground ball -last night there was hardly any ground ball - that was a direct outcome of the lack of talls. Playing Harry as a second ruck wears him out in unfamiliar territory he isnt a midfielder or a rover - he then cant be thte relief mark on a boundary get running faster than his direct and pilling defenders away from Charlie and he then gets to shagged to be a proper KPP tall.

In simple terms Pittonet's 'flaws' are far outweighed by the advantages he provides in freeing up other players - not to forget he is also a great help when the heat is on in clearances because he literally just gets in the way of opposition.

As for your point re stoppage / roving - it was disheartening watching Walsh (in particular) made to look pedestrian by Coniglio on repeat occassions- their smaller mids dominated around stoppages and CBB.

I know you dont like bigger bodies as they are too 'slow' - but in finals- if you donthave an experienced and very hard edged ground ball get brigade - you are goneski.

I'd start the big boys on ball in every quarter and then switch Walsh, Dow in when they can do the most damage.

I guess Vossy was just getting match run into teh legs of Waslha dn Cerra alst nigt - they certainly need it.
 
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The forward line was dysfunctional as the experiement playing Harry as ruck relief meant that Carlton was down a tall in the forward line - far far too often. This had a number of negative structural consequences that were exploited by GWS to great effect.

1. Charlie was covered very easily as there was no second target far too often - eg how many times was Owies targetted for entries and lost every one on one marking contest? No second tall allowed GWS the luxury of choosing to double team Martin - the default second marking target of consequence- -he ended up with I think one mark for the whole game. Easy intercept marks and easy contested mark wins- pretty mcuh negated small forrward perssure and ( worse still)

2. The forward high press became exploitable because GWS were able to use taller marking targets to get over the press - especially when Acres was subbed off. This allowed repeat rebound goals - something we havent seen workl against Carlton since July.

3. Compounding the forward line dysfunction - making every player bar Charlie the Coleman medalist look bog ordinary - was the dysfunctional midfield set up. Acres and Dow were the two best performing mids - you can give some leave pass to Cerra and Walsh coming back from a long lay-off, Walsh was a turnvoer merchant and running around burning team mates - Cerra was effective in clinches but ineffective with kicks and Hewett seemed to be a man lacking a mission. TDK battled manfully and played well- Harry was dangerously ineffective as the relief ruck- and GWS literally ran over the Carlton midfiled as the game wore on.

4. which leads me to the Fisher repsonse. Given lack of forward pressure effectiveness, given easy rebound along the lalnks, and given hard ball get loss to GWS the defensive structure was severely tested - the corridor entries for repeat goals testamentt to midfield collapse.

SO yeah Fisher didnt have a very good day and I dont think he is a natural defender - for all sorts of reasons- but he wasnt alone in being exposed by the upfield weakness- lets not forget GWS are a pretty complete team in the forward line.

Thats how I saw the match from a structural perspective - it doesn't take much to hand over a win based on inability to match up -but the Pittonet is redundant view was tested - and failed. IMO leading to all sorts of issues across all areas of the ground - because his presence allows for other things to happen.

Cripps and Docherty were big outs- I dont think Motlop would have made much difference excpet maybe finishing better and being able to kick from 50 - but as a target - he is only as tall as Owies and Durdin - midget forwards along with Fogarty -= in simple terms their taller defensive capability intercepted Carlton out of the game.

I wouldnt be blaming player much based on this game - but no doubt quite a few players were not able to match their direct opponents - for one reaosn or another - and that is all it takes to cop a loss.

oh and one final observation - the whole - stack the team with faster runners- was a massive fail - if you dont win the ball and stop the run of opposition - you've got nothing.
Re Motlop he’d have to be a walk up start in place of Durdin … Motlop is classier more composed doesn’t fall to ground and is better up the ground right at the moment imo
 

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We brought in Fisher when McGovern was out. Now that McGovern is back, Fisher shouldn't be playing.
I don't understand the need to have Fisher's role, he practically has no opponent in the backline, leaving holes and somebody has to do extra work to cover it.
Our backline was pretty solid without Fisher before so let's go back to that.
Fish was being compared to Nick Daicos last week.
Much prefer a Saad-like defence first/attack balance.
 
Re Motlop he’d have to be a walk up start in place of Durdin … Motlop is classier more composed doesn’t fall to ground and is better up the ground right at the moment imo

Right now - the biggest difference is Motlop can kick goals - Durdin will be a fine player for us.
 
Got to reward form and momentum, I don't think Durdin v Motlop is much of a debate right now.
Amazingly mots looks stronger. Stronger tackler and stronger through the legs. Durds needs another summer in the gym and to spend a bit of time around fog. Get some of that little man doesn't care about the size difference tackling attitude.
 
Good omen people, my birthday is on same day as elimination. Oh so is the great man one C Judd as well.

My daughters birthday also…and yes Juddster, she was born on his birthday literally 5 weeks out from joining the club


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