List Mgmt. 2023 List Management

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Had 21 uncontested possessions...if he is your outside mid you're in trouble. Seriously need to move on from Setterfield. Caroll and Hollands are much better prospect and he would not go past Cerra, Walsh, Kennedy, Hewett, Cripps & Acres.

I watched the other two games but it’s interesting to look at his stats. Everyone saying he is a perfect fit for Essendon as that big body mid; he had one clearance and 3 contested possessions. Looks almost like he played the more outside role we were lambasted for doing with him. Also from the heat map it looks like a HB type position.
Anyway good on him, hope he goes well

 

[Jimmae]

Had 21 uncontested possessions...if he is your outside mid you're in trouble. Seriously need to move on from Setterfield. Caroll and Hollands are much better prospect and he would not go past Cerra, Walsh, Kennedy, Hewett, Cripps & Acres.

I watched the other two games but it’s interesting to look at his stats. Everyone saying he is a perfect fit for Essendon as that big body mid; he had one clearance and 3 contested possessions. Looks almost like he played the more outside role we were lambasted for doing with him. Also from the heat map it looks like a HB type position.
Anyway good on him, hope he goes well

Yup he played defensive wing by the looks, but I'd imagine they'll be interested in integrating him further into their system over time. I assume they just let new senior players free wheel a bit in a role they're used to and work with them over time to flesh out their roles. That's a smart way to do it.

 

[Blue__Balls]

But you're presuming they didn't do this - which they would as a matter of course....

The powers that be must have decided it was worth rolling the dice on a few of these players (Guv, Marchy, Cuners) as all are potential first 22 players when fit. Their ceiling is undoubtedly high.

Sure, come year's end, if one of Marchy/Guv haven't stayed on the park - curtains for them.

But they must have decided rolling the dice on them was a better option than picking up a Schache or the like.

And we have Nigel as backup too.

Ditto Cuners if he fails the Marchy/Guv test.

Philp goneski, likely Paddy too (*kudos to his 4 goal effort on Thursday) unless he can win a senior spot and perform.

Fog too, goneski.

For sure, retaining them was clearly a conscious decision on the part of the club. That would have been on the grounds that Marchy actually played a little senior football last season and looked up to the level, and Cunners was presumably bubble-wrapped to make sure he was right for the preseason.

In hindsight, we had Cunners, Marchy and Philp as perennial rehabbers, a late season back issue for Walsh that we "hoped" would settle without surgery, and regular injury layoffs for Gov, Martin, Williams, Boyd and Pitto (some not their fault, but still a history of injury issues which we all know take their toll over time). It was a conscious decision, but one has to consider that it was the wrong one. Maybe made for somewhat valid reasons (Marchy and Cunners are talented and arguably best 22 starts when fit, Philp is a hard working kid who hasn't really had a good opportunity yet), and yet in the context of the list they represent a real risk of crippling our depth stock in a very important year.

It feels like every other team has a squad size of 44, but because of our insistence on retaining these guys, we're behind the 8-ball with a reduced squad of 40. When another club suffers 4-6 injuries, they've still got 38-40 blokes to work with. When we suffer another 4-6 injuries we're down to 34-36 and feeling the pinch. When they stack up even more like they seem to do every year, we're down to <30 players.

I'd, quite simply, be very surprised if the coaching group didn't give the list management guys a clear directive before year's end - that our off-season strategy needs to be built on a foundation of populating the list with skilled players who can be relied on (within reason) to play the majority of the season. I'm not expecting that we somehow recruit genetic freaks who are incapable of being injured, that's a silly strawman counter that I'm sure someone would be already planning to throw at me by now. Players get injured, it happens. But clearly some reach a point where there is an evident predilection for injuries - and having too many (if we're being honest, any) of these players on the list past that point of identification is just setting ourselves up for a difficult year. And if we keep missing finals, it's the coaches who are in the gun first and foremost, so it stands to reason that there is only so long they'll accept the presence of consistently unavailable players on the list.

Don;t even have to commit to any replacements overly much. Shuffle some players around and take a couple of delisted free agents in the rookie draft. One year on minimum rookie wages, can kick them to the curb 12 months down the line to be replaced by premium draft picks.

Retirements, Delistings, Trades 2022

Player movement following and during the 2022 Toyota AFL Premiership Season

www.afl.com.au

A lot of names to work with there. And again, they don't need to be particularly good to represent a more useful commodity than a bloke in the rehab group. Hell, if we'd given him a list spot, I'd genuinely be opting for Ben Crocker in the seniors ahead of Jack Martin at the moment. Zach Sproule was delisted by GWS, a 198cm key forward who would be perfectly adequate depth and could even be a better starting option than JSOS as a third forward/relief ruck. Ultimately, the names matter less than the overall strategy though - we cling to players well past the point where we should, and in doing so we make a rod for our own backs.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Am I too harsh in thinking that Fisher hasn't really kicked on/developed as much as we all hoped ?

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

A lot of names to work with there. And again, they don't need to be particularly good to represent a more useful commodity than a bloke in the rehab group. Hell, if we'd given him a list spot, I'd genuinely be opting for Ben Crocker in the seniors ahead of Jack Martin at the moment. Zach Sproule was delisted by GWS, a 198cm key forward who would be perfectly adequate depth and could even be a better starting option than JSOS as a third forward/relief ruck. Ultimately, the names matter less than the overall strategy though - we cling to players well past the point where we should, and in doing so we make a rod for our own backs.

I've been banging on about it for a while now, but Ned Cahill is more than worthy for a rookie spot. He's a natural small forward who has first class disposal, speed, creates forward pressure, and regularly hits the scoreboard. Easily our best forward last year at VFL level.

For mine he's a far better option than another 'small forward' who we just re-signed for a further 2 years.

 

[HaydossJ]

Am I too harsh in thinking that Fisher hasn't really kicked on/developed as much as we all hoped ?

No.

He is talked about as if he is a 10-15 player on our list, but his output suggests he would be in the 18-30 range for most clubs.

Players in that 15-22 range on other lists, for example Max Holmes, Bergman, McCreery, Noble, McInerny, Owens, Spargo etc are having regular big impact on games. I can't remember the last time Fisher put together a 4-quarter performance for more than 2 games in a row.

Is this a system or individual problem?

Fish is not alone in this, but with continued below average output from our 14-22 players, we will continue to be a mediocre side.

 

[branedotorg]

No.

He is talked about as if he is a 10-15 player on our list, but his output suggests he would be in the 18-30 range for most clubs.

Players in that 15-22 range on other lists, for example Max Holmes, Bergman, McCreery, Noble, McInerny, Owens, Spargo etc are having regular big impact on games. I can't remember the last time Fisher put together a 4-quarter performance for more than 2 games in a row.

Is this a system or individual problem?

Fish is not alone in this, but with continued below average output from our 14-22 players, we will continue to be a mediocre side.

literally all good to very good youngish players you just listed there, bergman in particular is OOC and will have a trade value similar to cerra at least.

 

[Beyond Blue]

Am I too harsh in thinking that Fisher hasn't really kicked on/developed as much as we all hoped ?

He had a good year last year which he needed as it was pre dated by 3 very poor years albeit a couple ruined by injury, but still not much to show for after the promise of 2018 when he looked good in a very bad team.

This year he needs to improve again because in comparison to opposition players playing similar roles his 2022 output is still just ok. His 1st quarter on Thursday was excellent but the rest of his night rest was very poor which is not the consistency we need him.

 

[Faz 2000]

Is there any chance of re-inventing Fisher as a HBF designated kicker? Our ball movement was putrid on Thursday. We need some run back there.

He's already an under-sized inside midfielder pretending he's a small forward.

Just spitballing. We need some zing, dare and ability to change angles back there.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Am I too harsh in thinking that Fisher hasn't really kicked on/developed as much as we all hoped ?

Not harsh, in the sense that he was drafted as a mid and has yet to show that he's capable of playing that position part time, let alone full time.

Here are a few snapshots of what pundits had to say about him in his draft year:

Pick 27 Zac Fisher: Only 175cm but one of the best performed and most immediate players in this draft with a 19-disposal average at WAFL League level against seasoned bodies. Fisher can play season one and has a strong all-around game with clean skills, an appetite for the contest and pace.

Carlton has taken Western Australian on-baller Zac Fisher with pick No.27 in the 2016 national draft.

After an outstanding season in the midfield for the Perth Demons, the 18-year-old quickly shot up the draft order, making him a true top-30 contender.

Averaging 21 disposals in four games during the U18 Championships, as well as ranking seventh overall for clearances in the division one carnival, Fisher’s clean hands and quick thinking around the contest was constantly on show.

Although he only stands at 175cm, his height has never stopped him racking up possessions and going in hard at every contest. His ability to keep the ball moving forward is a key part of his game.

Fisher is a fierce inside midfielder, who knows how to find the footy. He was the only West Australianat at the Under-18 Championships to average over 20 disposals.
He is not naturally quick or as gifted as some players, but he uses the ball well both on the inside and the outside, has good vision and works extremely hard.
He spent a lot of 2016 playing senior football in the WAFL, preparing him well for AFL.

As a kid taken at Pick 27, if we're being honest, he's probably about the mark for average output. You get some phenomenal success stories around that range, you get some flat-out busts, and he's in the middle ground as a proven AFL-capable player who can occupy a starting spot without being a standout.

Have said it a number of times lately - he's a win-more player who capitalises when the team is dominating, but disappears when we're getting beaten through the middle. Gut feel is that if he'd been drafted by Richmond, he'd have looked like an absolute jet in their prime years, be a multiple-premiership player, and would probably have been delisted or traded since (see Jake Aarts or Dan Butler) because he'd be seen as replaceable.

His biggest shortcoming is the aerial game. If I recall correctly, he had one of the lowest percentages for winning a one-on-one contest a couple of years back. I'm starting to question whether he is physically capable of jumping. When you look at guys like Shai Bolton, Jamie Elliott, Kozzie Pickett, Zac Bailey, Tyson Stengle, Toby Greene, Charlie Cameron, Cody Weightman, Tom Papley, Willie Rioli, Liam Ryan....there are a lot of successful small forwards who can be a threat on the ground as well as in the air. You can put the ball to them in a one-on-one with some degree of confidence that they'll be able to craft some kind of positive play.

I don't see that with Fish. He's not super quick, so you can't put the ball 15-20m ahead of him and have him beat his opponent in a foot race. But he's also a non-factor in the air, so if you target him in a one-on-one he's likely to concede the mark or spoil to his opponent. So when we're dominating stoppages, and he can front run to find space on the assumption we'll win the ball, then he gets fed. When we're losing stoppage and needing to transition from end to end, he's good for some overlap run and not much else. But our transition game becomes more limited when one of our high forwards can't be targeted, and as such it's easier for opposition to shut down the one or two outlets we do have (Cripps or Kennedy plus one of Harry/Charlie/TDK/JSOS).

 

[Stefchook]

Have said it a number of times lately - he's a win-more player who capitalises when the team is dominating, but disappears when we're getting beaten through the middle.

I'm more of a fan than most. But I agree with this. He's very creative with ball in hand. But struggles to place much pressure on the opposition. His lack of pace is an issue, but Motlop is no quicker, and he's managing to lay tackles. MC needs to hammer home the importance to him of being a 2-way player.

 

[JustaBattler]

Not harsh, in the sense that he was drafted as a mid and has yet to show that he's capable of playing that position part time, let alone full time.

Here are a few snapshots of what pundits had to say about him in his draft year:







As a kid taken at Pick 27, if we're being honest, he's probably about the mark for average output. You get some phenomenal success stories around that range, you get some flat-out busts, and he's in the middle ground as a proven AFL-capable player who can occupy a starting spot without being a standout.

Have said it a number of times lately - he's a win-more player who capitalises when the team is dominating, but disappears when we're getting beaten through the middle. Gut feel is that if he'd been drafted by Richmond, he'd have looked like an absolute jet in their prime years, be a multiple-premiership player, and would probably have been delisted or traded since (see Jake Aarts or Dan Butler) because he'd be seen as replaceable.

His biggest shortcoming is the aerial game. If I recall correctly, he had one of the lowest percentages for winning a one-on-one contest a couple of years back. I'm starting to question whether he is physically capable of jumping. When you look at guys like Shai Bolton, Jamie Elliott, Kozzie Pickett, Zac Bailey, Tyson Stengle, Toby Greene, Charlie Cameron, Cody Weightman, Tom Papley, Willie Rioli, Liam Ryan....there are a lot of successful small forwards who can be a threat on the ground as well as in the air. You can put the ball to them in a one-on-one with some degree of confidence that they'll be able to craft some kind of positive play.

I don't see that with Fish. He's not super quick, so you can't put the ball 15-20m ahead of him and have him beat his opponent in a foot race. But he's also a non-factor in the air, so if you target him in a one-on-one he's likely to concede the mark or spoil to his opponent. So when we're dominating stoppages, and he can front run to find space on the assumption we'll win the ball, then he gets fed. When we're losing stoppage and needing to transition from end to end, he's good for some overlap run and not much else. But our transition game becomes more limited when one of our high forwards can't be targeted, and as such it's easier for opposition to shut down the one or two outlets we do have (Cripps or Kennedy plus one of Harry/Charlie/TDK/JSOS).

Fisher after 6 pre-seasons lacks endurance that is a major issue for a bloke that isn't fast/can't mark/is weak one on one in any contest...I'm concerned that his friendship with Cripps has given him status he hasn't ever earned - just not good enough for a player after so many seasons and so many games. Lucky Martin is playing worse an Cuningham is injured ( again)

 

[jezzatigerbrent]

That's mostly because we fold like a deck of cards or devalue the player within a year. For reference, see most of the trades we've made since 2016.

Silvagni would hopefully have known he was likely to have back and groin issues without appropriate management and work on his running, but perhaps that later revealed itself fully as him being made of chalk. It's clear there's a history of taking the wrong kinds of risks on players without sufficient medical advice.

That makes it sound like they're ignoring the doctors and testing services they consult, but I'm arguing that perhaps they just don't have access to good information, which is a far more consistent theme across the organisation.

How much easier would we be breathing now had Steven Silvagni picked up Kosaiah Pickett when he was next cab off the rank rather than trading down 4 Philp and Kemp ..... And in the club further had the foresight to not let go of Eddie Betts so that we get Tyson Stengle as well as bringing all the cultural and Flow on effect of Eddie Silvagni got 2015 absolutely spot on however thank god we have Austin to make the better judgement calls thereafter

 

[Jimmae]

How much easier would we be breathing now had Steven Silvagni picked up Kosaiah Pickett when he was next cab off the rank rather than trading down 4 Philp and Kemp ..... And in the club further had the foresight to not let go of Eddie Betts so that we get Tyson Stengle as well as bringing all the cultural and Flow on effect of Eddie Silvagni got 2015 absolutely spot on however thank god we have Austin to make the better judgement calls thereafter

Could have just as easily been Kemp and Thomson Dow, or pushed harder for Port's higher pick and grabbed SDK. If Philp didn't cook his wrist and foot, he'd be contributing by now through the forward group and the midfield.

I'm still extremely confident on Kemp, just have to stop playing him as a deep defender in the VFL, even if that's the only spot for him in the AFL (I disagree).

 

[Arr0w]

Looks like Fisher is now well and truly embedded as a whipping boy

This on the back of last year, his best year, where he averaged 10th most disposals, number 1 for that forward/mid role ( not a fulltime mid or defender)

7th for score involvements, 9th for inside 50s, 8th for pressure, 6th for goals

1 of 3 players that could stay on the park all year

Looking forward to others stepping up and averaging and or surpassing those numbers

 

[katmanblue]

Kemp has not been given enough opportunities in my opinion. He is a good player

They keep moving him round. Haven't let him settle in a position for any length of time.

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[JJBagger]

No.

He is talked about as if he is a 10-15 player on our list, but his output suggests he would be in the 18-30 range for most clubs.

Players in that 15-22 range on other lists, for example Max Holmes, Bergman, McCreery, Noble, McInerny, Owens, Spargo etc are having regular big impact on games. I can't remember the last time Fisher put together a 4-quarter performance for more than 2 games in a row.

Is this a system or individual problem?

Fish is not alone in this, but with continued below average output from our 14-22 players, we will continue to be a mediocre side.

Fisher has had better output over a longer period of time than most of the blokes you mentioned. Owens has played 1 good game, McCreery has been mostly average, outside of last week and a handful of games last year. Bergman, Holmes and McInerney all have high ceilings, although still relatively young. And Spargo and Noble are players who have reached their ceiling, and probably have little growth, if any left.

Fish at least proved he could be a reliable, and solid contributor throughout last year, and kicked multiple goals in big moments. Reckon him suddenly becoming the whipping boy off one game is completely unfair

 

[Dunna Heartknee]

They keep moving him round. Haven't let him settle in a position for any length of time.

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We've got a lot of injuries and still not getting a game is the thing that has me concerned.

 

[BigBreakfast]

Three easy delisted in October: Fog, Dow, Philp.

Dow is the biggest miss, obviously.

Work to do to keep a spot (injury riddled): Marchy, Cuners

Serious questions over: LOB, Martin and our ability to keep TDK.

Worth a watch: Owies, Carroll

Seriously hoping Kemp gets a run of games to prove his worth.

That’s some serious movement already!

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Fisher has had better output over a longer period of time than most of the blokes you mentioned. Owens has played 1 good game, McCreery has been mostly average, outside of last week and a handful of games last year. Bergman, Holmes and McInerney all have high ceilings, although still relatively young. And Spargo and Noble are players who have reached their ceiling, and probably have little growth, if any left.

Fish at least proved he could be a reliable, and solid contributor throughout last year, and kicked multiple goals in big moments. Reckon him suddenly becoming the whipping boy off one game is completely unfair

I think Fish claims a spot in the whipping boy stakes(there's always a couple) is because HF is position of desperate need for Carlton and as a pure HF(along with Martin and maybe JSOS) he is underwhelming. Remove him/them from midfield cameo's and he provides zero threat, he's durable, a good field kick and is worthy of fringe player status(not a lock) that should be prepared for VFL time until our forward line is functioning.

Hope Austin has his eye's on a fast, highly skilled hybrid forward/mid or 2 to invigorate our forward line.(Sheezle or Humphrey would walk straight in to this side)
Who are the leading contenders?

 

[katmanblue]

I think they are definitely worth the risk of the contracts they got.

Right.

Downside: wasted list spot
Upside: huge.



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[katmanblue]

Setterfield is a capable 4th-5th mid at a lower club and a great depth mid at a stronger club.

Performed very well against Melbourne and Collingwood last year and put up similar numbers today.

Tipping he is eventually overtaken at Essendon as Hobbs/Caldwell/Tsatas improve but he is a good get for where they’re at now and if contracts weren’t a thing we certainly would’ve retained him over Dow.

Carroll has greater upside, better ball use and composure, a more well rounded game. Hopefully he can continue to improve as he is now next up.

Except Carroll has seemingly stagnated.

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[Kreuuuzeurns]

Except Carroll has seemingly stagnated.

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That's impossible to say this early in the season.

 

[thylacine60]

Oh so he can't figure out specific skill issues to target and associated game sense, do video reviews with players and devise drills that target this? What exactly does he do for 50 hours of his week then?

Further to this, if Voss cannot point out some semblence of overdone bean counting that appears to be happening within the organisation that stifles the playing group - hell, the entire football department - then I don't think he's any part of the answer. He doesn't need to provide a perfect message, but surely he can articulate some concerns.

So far I'm just seeing too much of the Voss that got ejected from Brisbane. Really hoping he doesn't continue the tradition of us getting fooled by rhetoric until we're completely bled for cash.

We picked Fisher instead. Personally I was keen on Joe Atley leading in (and SOS was looking at Hayward and Drew), but I wasn't as familiar with Bolton's work at the time and noted him as an astute pick in the aftermath. Guessing we did our usual thing of shitting our pants at anyone that seemed remotely edgy instead of figuring out how to provide a sound environment for professionals to grow as players and as people. Yay!

And to further throw myself in for the Harry Hindsight award as per Wickzki and Beyond Blue's exchange:

I would have picked Scrimshaw instead of SPS (trading down for Simpkin was my next move), and LDU instead of Dow (Bonar or Fogarty instead of O'Brien, or trading 10 to pick two in the 15-25 range)... right now I'm looking a fair way ahead.

I've been happy to be creative, and invest in the ability for coaches to be able to impart an appropriate game style, but it seems we can't recognise talent in a variety of areas of our football operations. Really hope I'm wrong and we start to get ahead of the pack for a change.

We genuinely do not know how to model for players that make differences in games, particularly in finals, or finals-like pressure. It's a shame, because in the 80s we clearly knew when someone had the knack, now we seem to run in the other direction for the human equivalent of blue chip stocks. You need a balance.

It's about having the right system for enough of your best talent, and surrounding them with players that fill the gaps that appear in terms of strengths and weaknesses in the best way possible.

We fail at step one, because we're obsessed grading players based on specific tasks we want completed on a football field, and the rest be damned. I don't think there's anyone in the AFL that rates Kennedy and Newman as highly as we do, and by a fair margin. It's terrifyingly out of touch.

I'm no fan of that podcast, and I'm also no fan of their ruck choice given there were names like Flynn, Grundy, and Briggs floating about, but the fundamental decision is sound: we need a better starting ruck option than Pittonet.

I personally would have seen him out of contract last year or the year before, and moved on from him. He's not part of any finals team IMO.

Fisher is someone I've put forward for trade for 2 or 3 years, and everybody's getting on board that wagon about now, when he has no bloody value any more. We seem to get too enamoured about the idea of certain things from certain players without looking at the genuine chance of that predicted peak every happening.

I can 100% guarantee you that whatever player peformance modelling we're doing is missing a healthy dose of reality.

There's been lots of great small forward options for years in various drafts at various price and capital points, and we've talked ourselves out of way too many of them because we want metronomes rather than flair.

Motlop isn't truly a small forward... he's not going to tear down the field and score or set others up that way. He's agile, and built fairly strongly and is best served in midfield roles longer term. Endurance is building up to that point so we need to again seek a small forward prospect in the future, or at least rotate our midfield through the forward line on a more permanent basis.


So I was all set to reply to these, and then this popped up:

And unfortunately it misses a few key points, such as:

• Jye Menzie in the mid-season draft instead of Sam Durdin
• Not giving Newman and Plowman such long deals
• A raft of other draft options than Hollands at the pick

I would have only bothered with Weideman though, and that would have been after never picking Durdin. Griffin Logue and Darcy Tucker were obviously available as well for an even better price than what we secured Acres for. McStay was a free agent, but that would have nullified the Jones compensation... well worth it though.


See above, we had openings in the 22 if we wanted to make some small guarantees and show a little faith in people. That being said I would have retained Cuningham and Marchbank regardless.

That's mostly because we fold like a deck of cards or devalue the player within a year. For reference, see most of the trades we've made since 2016.

Silvagni would hopefully have known he was likely to have back and groin issues without appropriate management and work on his running, but perhaps that later revealed itself fully as him being made of chalk. It's clear there's a history of taking the wrong kinds of risks on players without sufficient medical advice.

That makes it sound like they're ignoring the doctors and testing services they consult, but I'm arguing that perhaps they just don't have access to good information, which is a far more consistent theme across the organisation.

I insist on being part of Jimster's quote explosion!

 

[Benaly28]

Three easy delisted in October: Fog, Dow, Philp.

Dow is the biggest miss, obviously.

Work to do to keep a spot (injury riddled): Marchy, Cuners

Serious questions over: LOB, Martin and our ability to keep TDK.

Worth a watch: Owies, Carroll

Seriously hoping Kemp gets a run of games to prove his worth.

That’s some serious movement already!

I’ll just leave this here.

LDU is touted as one of the best clearance players in the AFL.

2017 draft pick 3

Paddy Dow.

Pick 4……..Yep.


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