Review 2023 National Draft Review Thread II [McKercher, Z.Duursma, Goad, W.Dawson, Hardeman, Maley]

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Agree. We need to start raising our expectations.

The core of our side are 6+ seasons in…

Logue (injured), Corr, McDonald, Simpkin, LDU, Zurhaar, Larkey, Thomas, Stephenson.

Combined with Scott, Curtis, Sheezel, Wardlaw et al, expecting a bottom four finish is genuine trash.

 

[Devington]

Really have no idea what to expect next year. Goldy gone I'm not sure is a massive issue, in that he wasn't near the player he once was, but on the flip side the entire squad knew how to play with him but the current ruck options won't have that benefit (plus have their own issues). I think it will be a stylistic adjustment more than anything.

Then we have Larkey being the Lone Ranger down forward. Again.

Last of all the defence will be without Logue (for half a season) and Mckay. Say what you will about Mckay's weaknesses but at least initially the replacements for those two won't be up to a great standard.

IMO this year will be a tale of two halves. Rough first half with new players, old champs gone, and a couple of positional issues. Then a stronger second half as things start to gel, Logue returns, and the draftess start having solid cameos off the back of good VFL conditioning.

What that looks like in terms of wins and losses I dunno, but I'd be expecting our percentage in the second half of the year to be drastically higher than what we finished on in the last few.

 

[ohmygewd]

We probably shoulda had 6 wins last year so 6 wins should be the minimum. But l want to see us challenging into the 4th quarter, average losing margin in the teens/low 20s with biggest loss of 40 pt.
If we lost ever game but our av losing margin is 8pts, then i still think we're on track.

 

[hellas_johnny]

having known someone who spent a day at a function with sonia hood approx a month ago, she said they're expecting/ want 8 wins as a minimum

 

[Ura]

Even with draw important things to take into account is the seniors we lost. The pressure on the shoulders of Sheezel, Wardlow, Mckertcher, Phillips, LDU fitness and TT to be responsible is massive.

Xerri can’t have excuses. Back line has never played together. From last year mainstays no McKay, Logue for most of the season and Ziebell.

If we are winning this year it’s coming off the back of our mids, half backs and half forwards.

In a positive note though we will have much better chemistry and team plan if we don’t have the horrid off season of last year… it has a strong feel that everyone wants to be there and is working hard

 

[spurs]

6-8 wins and I’m happy

 

[berniemccarthy]

With the draw we have, anything less than eight wins is a fail.

Ok. I see a few of these predictions. How about posters predicting which sides we are going to beat. Think that is a more difficult proposition.

 

[zoomba23]

Ok. I see a few of these predictions. How about posters predicting which sides we are going to beat. Think that is a more difficult proposition.

Winnable games to my eyes: Freo, Adelaide, Saints, Essendon, Weagles, Suns, Swans, Richmond, Weagles

 

[speedy]

Hoping dursma can have jy amiss levels of output next year

I don’t know if we should expect too much from Duursma, still looks like he’s got a boys body. It stood out like dogs balls, the difference between him and Reid on draft night. I think Reid had a man’s body at 16.

Reid and warlord might be fighting it out for the rising star next year, unless Kerch gets a friendly hb role?

Thats something to look forward too, the Reid fend-off attempt on the warlord.

 

[DarkPhoenix]

The boss watches/comes to all the games, supports them unconditionally. Doesn't know what a Wayne Carey is though - bless her cotton socks.

Probably best you keep Carey away.

 

[Sphynx]

I don’t know if we should expect too much from Duursma, still looks like he’s got a boys body. It stood out like dogs balls, the difference between him and Reid on draft night. I think Reid had a man’s body at 16.

Reid and warlord might be fighting it out for the rising star next year, unless Kerch gets a friendly hb role?

Thats something to look forward too, the Reid fend-off attempt on the warlord.

Colby won’t need a half back role to be effective.

I’m expecting him to have a fair bit of wing with about 25-30% CBA’s

 

[Amicalola]

Even with draw important things to take into account is the seniors we lost. The pressure on the shoulders of Sheezel, Wardlow, Mckertcher, Phillips, LDU fitness and TT to be responsible is massive.

Xerri can’t have excuses. Back line has never played together. From last year mainstays no McKay, Logue for most of the season and Ziebell.

If we are winning this year it’s coming off the back of our mids, half backs and half forwards.

In a positive note though we will have much better chemistry and team plan if we don’t have the horrid off season of last year… it has a strong feel that everyone wants to be there and is working hard

What happened in last year's off season? The clarko allegation stuff?

 

[Only Forwards]

Really have no idea what to expect next year.

Improvement. Stability of off field will provide that as a starting point. The plan won't have drastically changed and we have a coach who can coach. It is different to practically every preseason since 2018.

Goldy gone I'm not sure is a massive issue, in that he wasn't near the player he once was, but on the flip side the entire squad knew how to play with him but the current ruck options won't have that benefit (plus have their own issues). I think it will be a stylistic adjustment more than anything.

Goldy's good was good this last year. however even if he'd stayed he still would have to have been being phased out. We simply do not have a player in that position of his ilk, yet, Hopefully Goad, but he's likely a good couple of years away from it.

Then we have Larkey being the Lone Ranger down forward. Again.

I am not as worried about this because our midfield and deliver should get better. Meaning that perhaps we become a touch more focussed and less dump kick forward.

I think Paul Curtis is in for a good year, has shown bits and pieces hopefully he can string it together for a bit. CZ is in a contract year so who knows what he'll look like.

Would actually like to see Sheez on the half forward line, would add class and make it more dynamic immediately.

So while a lack of another key has concerns, there are ways around it so long as the midfield drive it.

Last of all the defence will be without Logue (for half a season) and Mckay. Say what you will about Mckay's weaknesses but at least initially the replacements for those two won't be up to a great standard.

We need to uncover someone with a bit of go here. I think that Pick will do an adequate job, at least until Logue is back.

I do wonder how much McKay not sufficiently running the defensive set up hurt how we did things.

There is a need for the midfield to put in hard defensive running. Every game. There is a potential silver lining in that.

Besides that I actually think that the lack of physicality with Jack gone potentially hurts us more than what losing McKay will. I mean we have, Extended Dawson, got Pink and Biggie to bridge that gap. When you look at our defensive players who is going to be physical? Luke? none of them really seem to have any c*** about them.

IMO this year will be a tale of two halves. Rough first half with new players, old champs gone, and a couple of positional issues. Then a stronger second half as things start to gel, Logue returns, and the draftess start having solid cameos off the back of good VFL conditioning.

You're probably bang on with this. there is an untangible though. I think we have a real undercurrent of kids who want to drive the place forward. What that does to the team may be able to push through some of our deficiencies.

What that looks like in terms of wins and losses I dunno, but I'd be expecting our percentage in the second half of the year to be drastically higher than what we finished on in the last few.

We will win more games. Before the start of last season I set the bar at 6.

This season I would set it at 6+ with zero 10+ goal losses. I also want to see the VFL side make finals again.

 

[ferball]

If Larkey and Comben go down for the whole season...Clarko might have to be creative have the most mobile forward line in modern day football with no player over 190cm - might have to make the midfield smarter with their forward entries so instead of bombing it, look for the lead...just like early 90's footy.
Curtis, Zurhaar, RHJ
Sausage, Duursma, Sheez
Sleevo off the bench.
CCJ has to step up.
Maley thrown into the wolves

It would be worrying

It could change the face of the game.

 

[ferball]

Ok. I see a few of these predictions. How about posters predicting which sides we are going to beat. Think that is a more difficult proposition.

I think we'll beat freo in r2. From r6 to r 10 we'll play geelong, hawks, Crows, Suns, St Kilda and *. We should win at least 2 maybe three possibly four. Beat the eagles in R 13. R16 - 18 is Footscray, Swans and Suns maybe in a different order. One or two of them.

From R20 onward - Geelong, Tuggers, Eagles, Bulldogs, Hawthorn. Win at least two of those games probably three.

So seven to ten games there.

I think it'll be Freo, Hawks, Adelaide, *, Eagles, Dogs, And we'll win three of our last four - Tigers, Eagles, Hawthorn.

Then we may have upsets against Port and Carlton. Possibly Collingwood, possibly Melbourne. Slim chance we beat the Giants in R1 cos they are asleep at the start of the season but unlikely imo. (Edit-) I think we'll beat Adelaide but it'll be an upset win as well. Freo - might be considered an upset as well, depends on how they're doing seem to have off field issues, like the Bulldogs. The other wins we'll be reasonable chances of imo.

Maybe one or two more upsets. If we get one of those top teams on a day they aren't switched on.

 

[apollo_creed]

8 wins? That's about what we've won in the last 3 seasons combined isn't it?

2023 was a better year than 2022. More wins and a notably better percentage.
2024 should have definitely more pronounced improvement in terms of wins but a pass mark for me would be at least 5 wins and a percentage above 80. 6 would probably be better but it's hard to know how injuries will turn out and how we'll fare in close games. Having a good record in close games makes 6 or 7 wins possible, having a poor record in close games will probably put us at the 4 or 5 mark.

I do think that percentage is important as it shows how consistently competitive we are and that we're not getting blown away very often.

 

[4cunningTonneTruck]

I expect us to be bottom four again. Yes, I think there'll be improvement but winning eight or nine games in 2024 seems a stretch, tbh.

You never know. Can start to beat more lower performing teams and then sneak the odd 1 or 2 from higher performing teams. 6 wins would have got you out of the bottom 4 in 2018.

 

[Souup]

Just leaving this here for all the “Why didn’t we just take anyone at pick 48” people.

“WE STICK TO OUR TALENT ORDER”
View attachment 1859467

Caruso's a gem. GWS are lucky to have him.

Clubs like Richmond, GWS and Collingwood are ahead of the game regarding drafting for their brand of football. It's something you see in American sports that's starting to become more of a thing in Aussie Rules.

 

[Ura]

What happened in last year's off season? The clarko allegation stuff?

Clarko not being at the club because allegations, TT in the media because of poor behaviour and away from club and into the season Clarko having to step away. Also off season with JHF requesting trade just befor trade period. Last years off season was about the worst we have ever had in terms of bad media and being unsettled.

 

[Shinboner1]

Biggest issue is key defender. We wmreally don't have anyone McKay's size to play on the monsters of the AFL

 

[King Corey]

Caruso's a gem. GWS are lucky to have him.

Clubs like Richmond, GWS and Collingwood are ahead of the game regarding drafting for their brand of football. It's something you see in American sports that's starting to become more of a thing in Aussie Rules.

Get the impression Sydney and to some extent dogs draft to suit their systems?

 

[Shermanator]

6-8 wins and I’m happy

In 2023 we lost 2 games less than 20 points and 5 games less than 10 points.

If we have a healthy list along with the introduction of some serious skill & speed and a full year with Clarko's gameplan then 6-8 is very possible. We could even pinch one or two against highly favoured opposition.

 

[My Left Foote]

Caruso's a gem. GWS are lucky to have him.

Clubs like Richmond, GWS and Collingwood are ahead of the game regarding drafting for their brand of football. It's something you see in American sports that's starting to become more of a thing in Aussie Rules.

Totally agree, heard him speak a few times always so impressive. I'm not sure if you watched the whole video, fascinating insight which I'm sure you'd enjoy and appreciate.

Inside the 2023 Draft

Take a look behind the scenes at the AFL 2023 draft.

www.gwsgiants.com.au

 

[berniemccarthy]

I think we'll beat freo in r2. From r6 to r 10 we'll play geelong, hawks, Crows, Suns, St Kilda and *. We should win at least 2 maybe three possibly four. Beat the eagles in R 13. R16 - 18 is Footscray, Swans and Suns maybe in a different order. One or two of them.

From R20 onward - Geelong, Tuggers, Eagles, Bulldogs, Hawthorn. Win at least two of those games probably three.

So seven to ten games there.

I think it'll be Freo, Hawks, Adelaide, *, Eagles, Dogs, And we'll win three of our last four - Tigers, Eagles, Hawthorn.

Then we may have upsets against Port and Carlton. Possibly Collingwood, possibly Melbourne. Slim chance we beat the Giants in R1 cos they are asleep at the start of the season but unlikely imo. (Edit-) I think we'll beat Adelaide but it'll be an upset win as well. Freo - might be considered an upset as well, depends on how they're doing seem to have off field issues, like the Bulldogs. The other wins we'll be reasonable chances of imo.

Maybe one or two more upsets. If we get one of those top teams on a day they aren't switched on.

Tell him he’s dreaming. I see all the r6-10 as loseable. Don’t think we will be much good until second half of season. Hope you are right and I’m wrong.

 

[rm3504]

I expect us to be bottom four again. Yes, I think there'll be improvement but winning eight or nine games in 2024 seems a stretch, tbh.

Tell him he’s dreaming. I see all the r6-10 as loseable. Don’t think we will be much good until second half of season. Hope you are right and I’m wrong.

The defence is one of worst I’ve ever seen. U can have a great big boat, but if it’s got 3-4 holes in it, it ain’t going to be much use