Preview 2023 Rd 12 Carlton vs Melbourne Friday June 2 7:50PM @ MCG

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Team is in …





IN: Alex Cincotta, Zac Fisher, Lochie O'Brien, Jack Silvagni, Lewis Young
OUT: Corey Durdin (knee), George Hewett (concussion), Ollie Hollands (collarbone), Nic Newman (hamstring), Marc Pittonet (hand), Ed Curnow






Backs:Alex CincottaJacob WeiteringBrodie Kemp
Half-backs:Lewis YoungMitch McGovernAdam Saad
Centreline:Blake AcresPatrick CrippsSam Walsh
Half-forwards:Jesse MotlopCharlie CurnowJack Silvagni
Forwards:Zac FisherHarry McKayMatthew Owies
Followers:Tom De KoningMatthew KennedyAdam Cerra
Interchange:Jordan BoydMatthew CottrellSam Docherty
Lochie O'Brien
Emergencies:Ed CurnowPaddy DowLachie Fogarty
Lachie Plowman
 
My first point of interest is going to be when the ball is directed to McKay the first time, and how he attacks the ball.

If he puts in some lame arse, half hearted attempt, I will feel for the lack of expected standards this club stands for.


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Two things I don't want to see
Silvagni in the ruck
Taking an elite defender (doc) turning him into an average mid -taking above average mid (Kennedy ) and turning him into a below average defender ..
Is Kennedy an above average mid really? Stats suggest he's pretty average. And by that I mean actually average, not the Ausralian meaning of average being poor.

Doc though hasn't really panned out on ball. Play him back, don't mind the odd spurt of 5-10 mins on ball but mostly should stay back.
 

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Question for those smarter than me.
Grundy/Gawn, Van Rooyen and Fritsch are the main 3 Melbourne key big forwards - if you want to include Fritsch.
Why have we gone so tall this week, especially when we could have done with the extra tall back last week?
Are we planning on using JSoS, McGovern and Kemp back (Scary) or JSoS & Young forward (FMD) or Young, Kemp. McGovern & Weitering back (Be very afraid)????
The more I look at the opposition teams and then our selections, (last week was another), the more my head hurts!!!
Leonardo Dicaprio Cause GIF by MOODMAN
 
Finally some sound analysis. They average 15.6 goals and 9.8 behinds per game. We average 10.7 goals and 12.4 behinds per game - and that stat also doesn’t include shots that fail to register a score - and we know we’ve had plenty of them!!!

As much as people on here don’t like the “game plan” it’s generating enough opportunities but the players can’t convert the chances. I believe we can fix it and go on a bit of winning streak but we need to fix it up asap otherwise the s**t will hit the fan.
I'm sure Dow could fix this as a see ball flick hospital pass to anyone type of serious talent - being wasted in VFL
 
My first point of interest is going to be when the ball is directed to McKay the first time, and how he attacks the ball.

If he puts in some lame arse, half hearted attempt, I will feel for the lack of expected standards this club stands for.


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Mcgovern squibbed all day against Collingwood and got to play the next week no problem. Young took the bullet instead of him.

Mckay going up with 1 arm is probably part of his contract at this point. That's how low our standards have been this year.
 
.of course we do. With Oliver out, we are capable of matching them in contested footy. We match up pretty well with their forward line and having multiple big stars negates their biggest weapons in their backline.

As with every week though, it comes down to tactics. We have been so obsessed with defending that we can't kick a wonning score. Forget the goal kicking - that is a symptom of a team that has no ubderstanding of how to use the ball to kick goals.

If we play attacking footy, get the midfield forward and spread the ball laterally to get them involved, and we beat them in contested footy we could totally win.

If we sit back defensively, try to score by blasting haphazardly to Charlie and Harry down the line every time, wr have zero chance.

Honestly, team selection is just as irrelevant this week as it has been all season
Either wr have made changes to our system and structure, or wr haven't. If we have, we can win no matter who plays 5th midfielder. If we haven't there's no ppint watching.

We have to play well right across the paddock for 200 minutes.


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Team selection is a little confusing.

Last week Ed is sub, he comes on early and does ok for the match. We suffer injuries to an inside mid, a winger and a small forward, yet Ed doesn’t replace any of them.

Persoanlly I think we should be moving past Ed but it doesn’t make sense, if he was your next man up last week, played solidly, why is he 2-3 spots further back this week than last?

I hope Dow is the sub, a small chance for Paddy to sink or swim.

Im going tomorrow night and for the first time this year, I don’t think we can win, it’s a weird feeling.
 
Question for those smarter than me.
Grundy/Gawn, Van Rooyen and Fritsch are the main 3 Melbourne key big forwards - if you want to include Fritsch.
Why have we gone so tall this week, especially when we could have done with the extra tall back last week?
Are we planning on using JSoS, McGovern and Kemp back (Scary) or JSoS & Young forward (FMD) or Young, Kemp. McGovern & Weitering back (Be very afraid)????
The more I look at the opposition teams and then our selections, (last week was another), the more my head hurts!!!
Joel Smith will be the other ‘tall’ forward. 191cm but has a big leap and usually pretty good hands for marking.

But you are right, Melbourne are running a very mobile forward line having gone for Smith over the much less athletic Brown or Schache who were the other possibles.

The ruck resting forward and van Rooyen will need a proper tall defender with body strength each. Fritsch (188cm) and Smith will need someone who is nimble but not too short as both are good aerially, but neither are much of a threat in a flat footed wrestle.
 
I'm sure Dow could fix this as a see ball flick hospital pass to anyone type of serious talent - being wasted in VFL

That's our go to hand ball at the moment though? Guessing Dow's hospital hand pass isn't loopy enough to warrant selection.

Needs to give his team mate that extra 0.5 seconds to brace for the crunch or it's not up to code.
 
That's our go to hand ball at the moment though? Guessing Dow's hospital hand pass isn't loopy enough to warrant selection.

Needs to give his team mate that extra 0.5 seconds to brace for the crunch or it's not up to code.
He is a bog ordinary footballer mate and not big enough to even do accidental damage to an opponent- opposition would run through him like they do Fisher and Lob.
 

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JSOS is playing ruck. Voss has already confirmed this.

Doch will play in the middle. I base this on the fact that we replaced Hewett with Young.

Kennedy will probably be a pure mid (but who truly knows).

Voss is not changing his way. He clearly believes that if our execution was cleaner we’d have more wins on the board. He might have a point. I don’t know anymore. I find everything about this side bewildering.

They will continue to bomb it high and long tomorrow night because that’s what they know. Our hope is that we either mark it or there’s more pressure around the ball so it doesn’t just get waltzed out. But anyone expecting lower your eyes chisel passes is kidding themselves.


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He is a bog ordinary footballer mate and not big enough to even do accidental damage to an opponent- opposition would run through him like they do Fisher and Lob.

We just recently watched Heeney push off Cripps with ease at stoppages. Mcgovern couldn't win a contest against Papley. We got plenty of examples of poor physicality in the seniors. I wish Carlton considered poor physicality as a reason to keep someone out of the side.

Least Dow is trying to get selected unlike Lob and Fisher.
 
Tipped a conservative selection week and they didn't disappoint. Only one I got wrong was Ed Curnow with Young coming back instead.

Those that say the ins all played well in the VFL so that shows selection integrity, you have to ask if those players addressed the issues that saw them dropped in the first place. 1 or 2 weeks in the VFL and they get called straight back in while others who have played well all year are ignored.

I understand that Young is there to cover the resting ruck but with him and JSOS coming in, we may be a bit top heavy.

It's curious that for a side with 4 wins from 11 games, we have used the same amount of players as some of the the more settled sides in the top 8. I'm not sure that loyalty to the same core should be as prevalent when they keep losing.
 
We just recently watched Heeney push off Cripps with ease at stoppages. Mcgovern couldn't win a contest against Papley. We got plenty of examples of poor physicality in the seniors. I wish Carlton considered poor physicality as a reason to keep someone out of the side.

Least Dow is trying to get selected unlike Lob and Fisher.
We bloody watched Caleb Daniel do it multiple times too
 
Is Kennedy an above average mid really? Stats suggest he's pretty average. And by that I mean actually average, not the Ausralian meaning of average being poor.
He was rated as above average in almost every statistical category playing on ball last year. This year he is playing as a backman - difficult to rack up stats when you're lining up on Mihocek (yes, that happened).
 
Tipped a conservative selection week and they didn't disappoint. Only one I got wrong was Ed Curnow with Young coming back instead.

Those that say the ins all played well in the VFL so that shows selection integrity, you have to ask if those players addressed the issues that saw them dropped in the first place. 1 or 2 weeks in the VFL and they get called straight back in while others who have played well all year are ignored.

I understand that Young is there to cover the resting ruck but with him and JSOS coming in, we may be a bit top heavy.

It's curious that for a side with 4 wins from 11 games, we have used the same amount of players as some of the the more settled sides in the top 8. I'm not sure that loyalty to the same core should be as prevalent when they keep losing.

I wonder how many times this has happened? A side that was aiming for finals losing the majority of their games and somehow being okay with that? Usually sides go hard to stem the bleeding....

Historically sides that have fewer changes are both very lucky with injuries and performing well enough to justify minimal changes. We are breaking trends in all the wrong ways...
 
So we've lost 6 out of the last 7 games and AGAIN the ONLY changes we make are FORCED. By deduction, everything else is working perfectly and no need to drop anyone who is not performing. Mind bogglingly stupid with a major touch of arrogance.

When you're winning you can possibly get away with this crap but when we're playing like a bunch of busted ar5es there is no way you can ignore an alternative like Dow - especially when Hewett comes out.

The axe comes quickly for coaches at Carlton. One thing I can say for sure is that when it comes for Voss (and it will come soon) it will be more deserved than most other recent recipients.

The belligerence is astonishing.

A few choices here which indicate safety/self-preservation from the MC/Voss. Similar to our gameplan, we're risk averse, even if it means higher risk/higher reward.

LOB instead of Binns - fear.
Bringing back the duo of JSOS and Young - fear. Would've liked just to bring back one.
Fisher - had a ripper game numbers wise, but as a full time mid? Has he shown in the 2s he can play effectively on the HFF?

If Ed is the sub - fmd

Arrogance. Belligerence. Fear. Amazing the emotions that can be deduced from reading a list of names.

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We just recently watched Heeney push off Cripps with ease at stoppages. Mcgovern couldn't win a contest against Papley. We got plenty of examples of poor physicality in the seniors. I wish Carlton considered poor physicality as a reason to keep someone out of the side.

Least Dow is trying to get selected unlike Lob and Fisher.

I look at the inclusions this week and see:

Lob for Hollands ( wingman for wingman)
SOJ as second ruck/forward - Voss made it clear about the second ruck duties in his presser ( again Pittonet out and TDK taking on Gawn and Grundy for 4 quarters?)
Newman out: Cincotta in ( again defender for defender)
Durdin out ( Fisher in) I would have preferred Honey - but that is just me

that is 4/4 like for like replacements

now we also add Hewett out and Ed Out

Ed has been playing mostly HFF/wing Hewett has been playing mainly mid.

I see Young as the odd selection here - (possibly will be used as a ruckman in the defensive zone?) but more likely clearing Docherty for mid/wing/HFF rotations or emergency defender - he is versatile - whether he is as good as a rotation as he might be as a HBFer - is another discussion...

BUT

I see Kennedy ( finally) put back in as an on baller - replacing Hewett (IMO Kennedy is the second best on baller at Carlton atm)
Do you prefer Dow over Kennedy?

SO

So ( re Dow - again) do you prefer Dow over Docherty when we already have Cripps and Kennedy ( I am surprised Cripps is playing tbh- after watching what Parker did to his ankle) IMO - Docherty is a better runner, better tackler than Dow ....

RE Fisher/LoB....

If you asked me do I rate Fisher/Lob or Jack - I would say no higher than I rate Dow.....but they can play in positions that Dow doesn't ....

This is why I think Dow doesn't get a gig - he isnt best three on baller at Carlton and isn't a Cerra or Walsh and isn't a wingman and isn't a HFF or HBF..he lacks versatility - we've got better to choose from

the whole bias against Dow is a crock (IMO). If Cripps doesn't make it this week I think you will see Dow play and then you will see what we have seen time and time again - he will get smashed.
 
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