Ultimate Glory 2023 Trade speculation and Shinbeggars discussion

[bzparkes]

One concept I like is to draft players now to let them develop and then go hard at the free agents next year or the year after. The idea being to have all of the pieces of the plan come together at the same time.

Agreed.

The draft is the only opportunity a club will get to obtain top end talent for 'free'. Building a solid foundation is very important and the draft appears the best way of doing that. Spreading the salary out by front loading the FAs and then boosting the draftees salaries seems the best way to go about it, if you can get the FAs early enough.

 

[Alite]

Agreed.

The draft is the only opportunity a club will get to obtain top end talent for 'free'. Building a solid foundation is very important and the draft appears the best way of doing that. Spreading the salary out by front loading the FAs and then boosting the draftees salaries seems the best way to go about it, if you can get the FAs early enough.

The key is to honestly know the quality of your teams list. The problem being that honesty is a rare commodity when vested interests at club level become involved. StKilda regularly stuff this up. Their palpable need to get a premiership have them trying for the NOW every year and so never actually getting anywhere that matters.

IMO WC should go full rebuild knowing that they have already had two horror years and that, if they go young and have 2 more horror years (all the while developing their talent), the AFL will step in with multiple packages to make them better (see Norf). WC‘s best out is to be a basket case and take the handouts. And then rise from the basket brimming with talent. A shot at 2028 is the earliest I can see WC rising to be a contender.

If drafted to WC, Harley Reid will not stay at WC, of that I am very confidant. Your club’s efforts should be to squeeze every advantage you can out of his trade potential, and then go your own way.

 

[MasterSamurai]

Genuine question(because I'm too lazy to go back through the thread), is Hawthorn's first + F1 + Ward/one of the Mc's even a thing Hawthorn would put forward?

Personally, I don't ever recall Hawthorn making such a big play for a star player, let alone an unproven draftee.

It definitely fits the mould of a godfather offer but at the current list state of Hawthorn, surely they'd be better off reserving their ammo for at least this year and next year's drafts, then going all in on trades/ FA's to charge up the ladder?

I'm sure it's just another media beat up but would any supporters actually be happy with this trade? I'd think not.

No not really re- original question. Wce quietly let clubs know of what'll it take to prize out pick one from them. So, three first round picks seems the asking price unless north pony up both two and three. No other club can come close to that if north were interested. So, Hawthorn have pick four and future pick around the 4-6 mark , which leaves one short of wce demands. Join the dots. İt's NOT Hawthorn looking to even entertain trading CMAC or ward in the first place but we have through Rob McCartney made it be known that we are active in that area (wanting Pick 1) .

 

[The Chad and I]

One concept I like is to draft players now to let them develop and then go hard at the free agents next year or the year after. The idea being to have all of the pieces of the plan come together at the same time.

If the Hawks keep their TPP “powder dry“ and start to rise up the ladder, we will have “built it” and they will come.

100%

The best free agents go to clubs who are serious contenders. We’ve got to get ready for that by building the team through draft picks and value trades.

 

[Alite]

100%

The best free agents go to clubs who are serious contenders. We’ve got to get ready for that by building the team through draft picks and value trades.

On previous BigFooty pages I often and considerably rubbished the idea that the Hawks should trade for the bog-average non-best talent free-agent that is Ben McKay. Apparently the hawks brains trust thought differently and just missed out on getting his services at $850k for many many years. (My only hope for their process was that they bid up McKay and made Dodo match = giving Dodo one last parting shot / bad trade).
Whatever happened, I have never been so glad to see the Hawks lose. This is my one and only statement of happiness that we are not on the hook for Ben McKay.

Chol at half the money will be twice as important to our team. He excites me. I understand his limitations but I don’t care. Mabior will improve our team and that is good.

I can see 2024 being another year of development and then our team exploding into the finals in 2025.

This trade period is critical for Mark McKenzie and the Hawks. Get it right and silverware is a near future possibility. Get it wrong and at best we are looking at 2027. No pressure

 

[smeltitdeltit]

We are talking about a 2 pick upgradee.

Absolute badness the amount of assets we are willing to throw at this.

Personally I find 2 x top 5 picks for another top 5 pick very uncomfortable.

If Lewis and Reeves are injured for long patches in 2024 we could finish with a spoon. Are you happy to give away pick 3 and pick 1 (plus a good player drafted with a top 10 pic) for a pick 1?

This. Plus, yes Reid is very good. Sure. He’s played zero games at level. Is likely to continue his level? Yes.
Could he: decide he doesn’t like afl and give it up? Yes.
Could he blow out a knee or two? Yes.
Could he develop an offield “issue”? Yes
Could he develop a FIGJAM attitude that’s a net detriment? Hard to see how he couldn’t really.

Crazy capital to give up for what could be a single point of failure.

It’s also funny that many said that winning attitude is worth more than pick 1.

Well perhaps now we see what the cost actually is.

Let’s say half way through the year we were coming dead last, and a genie gave us the option of winning 5 more games the rest of our 2023 year to end up third last. It would however cost us Ward and our 23 pick and out F1.
Nobody takes that.

 

[buddylove23]

If we’re serious about filling a NEED I think Curtin / Duursma are the priorities, surely. Best available is Harley, obviously. Unfortunately we’re going to miss on all 3 and that hurts. As exciting as the Wizz is, he’s a forward pocket and giving up 4 for him just doesn’t feel right to me. We need KP stocks pronto.


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[Blackhawk42]

If we’re serious about filling a NEED I think Curtin / Duursma are the priorities, surely. Best available is Harley, obviously. Unfortunately we’re going to miss on all 3 and that hurts. As exciting as the Wizz is, he’s a forward pocket and giving up 4 for him just doesn’t feel right to me. We need KP stocks pronto.


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To be fair, Duursma isn't a key position player either.

We need elite talent in our forward line. At this stage I honestly don't think it matters if that elite talent is tall, small or medium.

We just need more avenues to goal.

 

[Dewnior]

Eagles trying their darndest to whack us with their wooden spoon

 

[Agent_99]

Cmac is highly regarded by the coaches. I would be shocked if he’s traded..

 

[sven_inc]

I posted something similar a little while ago, and i hope its not annoying doing so again, but just as an aside, and it might be semantics, but I reckon its important to think of these trades more broadly.

It's still a lot to pay, but it's never 3 picks for 1 player. It's 3 high picks for Reid and two later picks.

3, F1, Ward/CJ/CMac/Mackenzie

Vs

Reid, 3rd round pick, 4th round pick (for example)

The above trade would be far more palatable if we could use those two later picks to grab the next Lewis, Moore, Stewart, Zorko, Puopolo etc.

It's also softened by the fact we're getting another first rounder in via a discounted McCabe.

If we do go down this path, any melts might be best tempered until the end of the trade period entirely once we see what everything looks like as a whole.

If it still seems horribly lopsided then all bets are off!

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[Hawkspot]

I wonder what it would take to move from 3 (4 after compo) to 2.

Makes getting 1 a lot easier. Unless north are moving up for Reid they miss out on nobody, Eagles take Curtin and they would have the same players to pick from with 2/3 anyway.

 

[Mitch75]

We don’t need Reid. Our biggest deficiency is goal kicking depth. This season Breust kicked 47, Lewis 36. That’s 83 goals from our top two goal kickers. Then daylight to Moore at 17. Then we fall away badly from there.

By contrast, Collingwood’s top two in Mihocek and Elliot only kicked 86, but then their next ten average about a goal a game (or more).

In Lewis-Breust-Chol we should have 120 goals. We need one more natural, who knows where the goals are. That’s either Watson or Duursma, not Reid.

 

[Lickmesocks]

Lots of proposals about the Hawks and Norf doing business.

More chance of Santa rolling down your chimney this year.

 

[Lickmesocks]

We don’t need Reid. Our biggest deficiency is goal kicking depth. This season Breust kicked 47, Lewis 36. That’s 83 goals from our top two goal kickers. Then daylight to Moore at 17. Then we fall away badly from there.

By contrast, Collingwood’s top two in Mihocek and Elliot only kicked 86, but then their next ten average about a goal a game (or more).

In Lewis-Breust-Chol we should have 120 goals. We need one more natural, who knows where the goals are. That’s either Watson or Duursma, not Reid.

120 from these 3 would be a serious win!!!

 

[Mitch75]

120 from these 3 would be a serious win!!!

Yep, and then if we can just get about a goal a game from Moore, CMac and maybe Butler, we’re in business. We need to average 14 goals a game to be a finals contender, not under 10 like this season

 

[CaptainWorpedo]

Cmac is highly regarded by the coaches. I would be shocked if he’s traded..

CMac, Ward and Weddle are must keeps!

 

[NICE1]

Lots of proposals about the Hawks and Norf doing business.

More chance of Santa rolling down your chimney this year.

Is there some bad blood there or are we just unlikely to satisfy a mutual beneficial deal?

 

[lyger]

No not really re- original question. Wce quietly let clubs know of what'll it take to prize out pick one from them. So, three first round picks seems the asking price unless north pony up both two and three. No other club can come close to that if north were interested. So, Hawthorn have pick four and future pick around the 4-6 mark , which leaves one short of wce demands.

I think three first round picks is a real risk. If we suffer significant injuries to key personnel next year, our F1 could be pick 1, and that would make our offer way overs compared to North’s picks two and three (hypothetically speaking).

 

[moehawk]

there.

By contrast, Collingwood’s top two in Mihocek and Elliot only kicked 86, but then their next ten average about a goal a game (or more).

In Lewis-Breust-Chol we should have 120 goals. We need one more natural, who knows where the goals are. That’s either Watson or Duursma, not Reid.

FYI Reid averaged 2 goals a game this year in Coates league. His 1 game with Tongala seniors had close to 30 possessions 3 goals in BOG performance. I think if we do get him, he will be a goal scorer.

 

[Harper_Hawk]

We are talking about a 2 pick upgradee.

Absolute badness the amount of assets we are willing to throw at this.

Personally I find 2 x top 5 picks for another top 5 pick very uncomfortable.

If Lewis and Reeves are injured for long patches in 2024 we could finish with a spoon. Are you happy to give away pick 3 and pick 1 (plus a good player drafted with a top 10 pic) for a pick 1?

No way should Hawks lose Brockman, give away another young player plus pick 3 and a future first for pick 1. That is an absolute disastrous list management. Keep everything and get a fricken fullback to help Sicily out and go to the draft. The End.


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[Franko Armani]

You really have to wonder why we picked Brockman in the first place, considering we’ve heard he’s wanted to be home since we drafted him. Really need to be more careful with those picks.

 

[Mitch75]

No way should Hawks lose Brockman, give away another young player plus pick 3 and a future first for pick 1. That is an absolute disastrous list management. Keep everything and get a fricken fullback to help Sicily out and go to the draft. The End.


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Agree, that would be too much draft capital. He’d need to have kicked 4 or 5 goals a game in Coates League for us to be thinking that.

 

[Rhayader]

You really have to wonder why we picked Brockman in the first place, considering we’ve heard he’s wanted to be home since we drafted him. Really need to be more careful with those picks.

Careful? He was a third rounder, was always worth the punt despite the risks (real or imaginary)

 

[Tony3163]

No way should Hawks lose Brockman, give away another young player plus pick 3 and a future first for pick 1. That is an absolute disastrous list management. Keep everything and get a fricken fullback to help Sicily out and go to the draft. The End.


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Did you have a specific fullback ready to help Sicily in 2024, they seem hard to find.