Ultimate Glory 2023 Trade speculation and Shinbeggars discussion

[Hawk the Talk]

Only if he agrees. Contracted players have to agree to a trade.

That’s why I said I guess…there’s no other reason for people to throw his name up otherwise. But to say he would flat out refuse is nonsense. I remember Josh Kennedy absolutely not wanting to be traded home to WA in the Judd deal… he ended up agreeing to it.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

How often has pick 1 been the best player from the draft? Nick Riewoldt would be the only unanimous #1 that would be taken again first in his draft year. (Very happy with Luke Hodge, but he's got some serious competition)

No doubt Reid will be a tremendous player, but there's absolutely no guarantee that he will have a better career than Zane Duursma, Nick Watson, Colby McKercher, or even a speculative pick taken later in this draft. On exposed junior form Reid is an absolute jet, but that doesn't always translate into an elite AFL career.

Keep pick 3. Use next year's first to try to secure another top end pick this year. The more A graders we develop the quicker we will win our next piece of Silverware.

IMO this argument is pointless.

Having pick one gives your club the chance to chose the player that they rate as the very best out of the respective class. You don't not want pick one because they invariably don't turn out to be the best player from their draft.

 

[Burtman]

I've seen this point a bit, but let's be clear here. Reid is the best forward in the draft, he is definitely the best back in the draft, and he's pretty much equal with McKercher as a mid. Players with Reid's football nous to play as a one-on-one defender, an interceptor, a clearance mid, a forward target, and a general forward simply do not exist. Couple that with the athletic profile, his strength without being overbulked too young, and his good skills, and you have a player worth paying up for. Go watch the replay of his VFL game for Essendon, or a few of his champs games. He's a player that can play anywhere, and as he builds his stamina can move into the midfield and be a real threat to the comp. Duursma and Watson look good, and there are some players next year that look to be very good prospects, but no one has the upside of Harley.

This is just my opinion, but if we have a chance to get Reid for a price the club thinks is reasonable then we would be madmen not to take it. I think a reasonable deal could be done, and I'd be happy if that included a future 1st and our current pick.

That being said, I don't think it'll happen. He'll probably end up at the Roos or Melbourne.

He’s probably the best defender, although not the type we need, but I think he’s the fourth best forward and third best mid. All round he’s the best utility. I haven’t seen as much forward craft and nous from him as opposed to Walters, duursma and Watson. It’s all good being able to outbustle guys in the under 18’s but it’s a different kettle of fish at afl level. For him to be a gun forward you pretty much have to clear the 50 out for him and revolve the whole attack around him. I feel the other guys fit into a team better without having to be the main man. History also says he won’t be the best player in his draft, just as jhf isn’t, rowell isn’t, walsh isn’t, rayner isn’t etc etc. two likely top 5 picks plus players is just ridiculous

 

[Platten44]

All players need to in AFL, even if uncontracted they still nominate a club and if they aren’t traded there they enter drafts

Yep. It’s why you can’t just say trade a player for a top draft pick.

 

[Lickmesocks]

Everyone keeps saying we will end up with two top 10 picks.

How is this happening again?

GWS have said they won’t be handing over a first round pick as a salary dump for Haynes.

So that leaves us with the suns? Who are we sending to the Suns to make this happen?

 

[Colloquy]

To those advocating for the Pick 1 trade….

Sure you could be trading away the chance to select Keiran Lovell and Dylan Stephen alongside DGB and Brocky to land Harley Reid, but you may also be trading away Rankine and Butters.

This place would be unbearable if DGB and Brockman alone hit their straps on a return home, let alone should we hand two stars to the Eagles on top of that.

Like I said, it’s ******* nuts. Particular for a side like ours still wanting to add talent, it would be a step backwards.

Just like some people in the forum want to trade away this years first and next years first for King from GC just to get a Key Position player.

When we should be still hitting the draft.

 

[tl92]

Everyone keeps saying we will end up with two top 10 picks.

How is this happening again?

GWS have said they won’t be handing over a first round pick as a salary dump for Haynes.

So that leaves us with the suns? Who are we sending to the Suns to make this happen?

Our future first

 

[Hawktalk111]

To those advocating for the Pick 1 trade….

Sure you could be trading away the chance to select Keiran Lovell and Dylan Stephen alongside DGB and Brocky to land Harley Reid, but you may also be trading away Rankine and Butters.

This place would be unbearable if DGB and Brockman alone hit their straps on a return home, let alone should we hand two stars to the Eagles on top of that.

Like I said, it’s ******* nuts. Particular for a side like ours still wanting to add talent, it would be a step backwards.

I believe DGB will become a great player, and you are right it will be tough to see that happen at another club. But…

DGB will never be a number 1 defender or a great forward. If he fulfils his potential he eventually becomes Scrimshaw, a great 3rd tall. Nothing wrong with that at all, Scrimshaw is great and personally should have never have been dropped out of our starting lineup. Problem is Mitchell does not really value Scrimshaw who has been out of favour with Mitchell for the majority of this year. DGB is also out of favour now and just like Scrimshaw I don’t see that changing. I can only see DGB fulfilling his potential at another club.


On another related note a DGB + Brockman trade to WC does not need to be for pick 1. WC can get a lot of 1st round draft capital back from another club for pick 1, and we can put together a deal for that without giving up too much more. If we can secure another mid/late first rounder it would give us a chance at players like O’Sullivan, Murphy & A.Reid.

 

[Colloquy]

How often has pick 1 been the best player from the draft? Nick Riewoldt would be the only unanimous #1 that would be taken again first in his draft year. (Very happy with Luke Hodge, but he's got some serious competition)

No doubt Reid will be a tremendous player, but there's absolutely no guarantee that he will have a better career than Zane Duursma, Nick Watson, Colby McKercher, or even a speculative pick taken later in this draft. On exposed junior form Reid is an absolute jet, but that doesn't always translate into an elite AFL career.

Keep pick 3. Use next year's first to try to secure another top end pick this year. The more A graders we develop the quicker we will win our next piece of Silverware.

We should be trying to get more future 1st some how not trade them away.

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

We should be trying to get more future 1st some how not trade them away.

How are we going to do that? We have no currency worth future firsts, outside of Newcombe and Sicily.

Our age profile means we're stuck in future first no man's land.

 

[Yardie]

Pick 3
Future 1st
Brockman
Dgb

Yea, nah, way too much , no need to throw dgb in to that deal, that's just silly . But, it WİLL definitely cost pick three + future first for starters. Harley is better player all round then Duursma and Watson.

Take out DGB and West Coast give us their second rounder this year. Thoughts?

 

[HeHateMe]

What sort of pick do we think we would get for Brockers by itself?

Somewhere around 35?

He's absolutely worth 38 + 54 that would be about pick 28 in points and absolutely fair for a player with his talent.

I know I'm going to be upset with whatever we get but if we settle of less than pick 38 I'd be furious.

 

[Mopar Jason]

Take out DGB and West Coast give us their second rounder this year. Thoughts?

I like your your proposal but I think West Coast may be reluctant to send a second round pick back our way

 

[TDS7]

He’s probably the best defender, although not the type we need, but I think he’s the fourth best forward and third best mid. All round he’s the best utility. I haven’t seen as much forward craft and nous from him as opposed to Walters, duursma and Watson. It’s all good being able to outbustle guys in the under 18’s but it’s a different kettle of fish at afl level. For him to be a gun forward you pretty much have to clear the 50 out for him and revolve the whole attack around him. I feel the other guys fit into a team better without having to be the main man. History also says he won’t be the best player in his draft, just as jhf isn’t, rowell isn’t, walsh isn’t, rayner isn’t etc etc. two likely top 5 picks plus players is just ridiculous

You're really underestimating Harley's forward craft and contested marking if you aren't rating him as the best forward in the crop. Harley gets his hands to the footy better than any of those guys, and control of the footy in the forward line is what gets you goals. His offball work is good, but we haven't seen much of it si ply because he doesn't usually play there. But when he works up the ground his pack marking, defensive effort, and ability to get the footy and make a play with it is unparalleled in this draft class. I like Duursma, but he simply isn't Harley Reid. Instead of repeating the number 1 pick talking points, debate a player on their merits. Harley has shown he can be a serious player at every position. His field skills are better than Watson and Duursma, his marking nous and forwardcraft is up there with Walter (who is one that might need a year to develop his craft against bigger bodies), and his composure in packs as a midfielder is genuinely unheard of.

There's a lot of conjecture around Harley this year, but let me be very clear. Harley is the best prospect I've seen, and he is the exact player we need. Some of you lot might be mad if we trade 3 or 4 for 1, I'll be absolutely thrilled. There's nothing I can do to change your mind, but on the merits of the player I would be taking the deal.

Now, to copy paste this for the next two months.

 

[Burtman]

You're really underestimating Harley's forward craft and contested marking if you aren't rating him as the best forward in the crop. Harley gets his hands to the footy better than any of those guys, and control of the footy in the forward line is what gets you goals. His offball work is good, but we haven't seen much of it si ply because he doesn't usually play there. But when he works up the ground his pack marking, defensive effort, and ability to get the footy and make a play with it is unparalleled in this draft class. I like Duursma, but he simply isn't Harley Reid. Instead of repeating the number 1 pick talking points, debate a player on their merits. Harley has shown he can be a serious player at every position. His field skills are better than Watson and Duursma, his marking nous and forwardcraft is up there with Walter (who is one that might need a year to develop his craft against bigger bodies), and his composure in packs as a midfielder is genuinely unheard of.

There's a lot of conjecture around Harley this year, but let me be very clear. Harley is the best prospect I've seen, and he is the exact player we need. Some of you lot might be mad if we trade 3 or 4 for 1, I'll be absolutely thrilled. There's nothing I can do to change your mind, but on the merits of the player I would be taking the deal.

Now, to copy paste this for the next two months.

That’s fine, that’s your view on things and I have mine. I for one think giving up the biggest trade bounty in afl history for an untried kid is rather wreckless when we’re in the middle of a total rebuild

 

[Rioli magic]

We currently have 8 players on our whole list taken in the first round of the draft.

That 8 includes Wingard and Stephens whose future beyond 12 months is questionable.

The remaining 6 includes DGB and Scrimshaw who have struggled with form and cementing their place in the team.

That leaves 4 players on our whole list taken in the first round (Day, Ward, MacKenzie, Weddle) that I think we can confidently say are part of our core group that is expected to take this team forward.

We have been incredibly lucky/successful in bringing in our best players and leaders from less common sources (Sicily pick 56, Newc MSD, Lewis pick 76, Worpel pick 45, Moore pick 67/rookied….). In many ways we have already done the more difficult part, which IMO should be viewed as something to take advantage of, not handed back to our competitors.

Looking at the list build in this perspective, the age of those “core” first rounders and the current direction of the club, we should be targeting as many first round picks as we can over the next two years, 2 at minimum and preferably 3/4 onto the list over the next two years, not trading out first round picks to other clubs.

6 first round picks added to the list over 4 years (Ward, Mackenzie, Weddle, 2023 pick 3, 2023 pick 10 eg? 2024 1st rd), plus Day, plus DGB and plus Newc, Lewis, Moore etc…get this younger group up to the 50 games while the previous wave will be up to the 100 games range.

This is how we set ourselves up for success IMO, just need a little bit of patience for another couple of seasons while this develops.

If we can add one or two FA’s that address positional needs (eg McKay, Gresham) even better.

 

[KeeperLeaguer]

We should be trying to get more future 1st some how not trade them away.

Not really. Not at all in my opinion.
This draft is heavy on talls in the top ten. Next year's draft will have mainly mids in the top ten.
We need talls for our structure, not another mid whilst we have Nash, Day, Worpel & Duke with Ward and Mackenzie yet to get a proper gig in the middle.
If we could trade our future 1st I'd say definitely do it, especially if it's to get us another top-10 this year or facilitate a trde for pick 1.

And on the same note about us having too many mids at the moment, that's the reason we wont pick McKercher this draft. If we keep pick 3 it'll be Duursma or Watson - nothing surer.

 

[Billyc]

How often has pick 1 been the best player from the draft? Nick Riewoldt would be the only unanimous #1 that would be taken again first in his draft year. (Very happy with Luke Hodge, but he's got some serious competition)

It’s impossible to measure but logically a huge part of this is that number 1 picks typically go to basket case clubs. Like in any profession you learn from your mentors and from the culture and standards in the organisation you work in. Put a gun graduate in any industry into a dreadful business surrounded by incompetent colleagues and they are very unlikely to reach their potential unless they get out and go somewhere else where they can learn properly

Hodge was one of the only number 1 picks who didn’t go to the wooden spooner. Ugle-Hagan and Horne-Francis will be interesting watches for the same reason, as will Ashcroft and Daicos who both should have gone number 1 but didn’t and instead went to very good clubs as father sons where they are shooting the lights out

If I was Harley Reid I’d be desperate for Melbourne to somehow trade up from pick 4 so he can learn from Petracca, Oliver, Viney and co in a strong side and good system

 

[Alsmypal]

Not really. Not at all in my opinion.
This draft is heavy on talls in the top ten. Next year's draft will have mainly mids in the top ten.
We need talls for our structure, not another mid whilst we have Nash, Day, Worpel & Duke with Ward and Mackenzie yet to get a proper gig in the middle.
If we could trade our future 1st I'd say definitely do it, especially if it's to get us another top-10 this year or facilitate a trde for pick 1.

And on the same note about us having too many mids at the moment, that's the reason we wont pick McKercher this draft. If we keep pick 3 it'll be Duursma or Watson - nothing surer.

If McKercher is on the board at our pick I wouldn’t be so sure about that.

 

[Mercy Seat]

It’s impossible to measure but logically a huge part of this is that number 1 picks typically go to basket case clubs. Like in any profession you learn from your mentors and from the culture and standards in the organisation you work in. Put a gun graduate in any industry into a dreadful business surrounded by incompetent colleagues and they are very unlikely to reach their potential unless they get out and go somewhere else where they can learn properly

Hodge was one of the only number 1 picks who didn’t go to the wooden spooner. Ugle-Hagan and Horne-Francis will be interesting watches for the same reason, as will Ashcroft and Daicos who both should have gone number 1 but didn’t and instead went to very good clubs as father sons where they are shooting the lights out

If I was Harley Reid I’d be desperate for Melbourne to somehow trade up from pick 4 so he can learn from Petracca, Oliver, Viney and co in a strong side and good system

Supposedly he is dead keen on us. Learning from Sam would be fairly enticing…

 

[H00t]

Not really. Not at all in my opinion.
This draft is heavy on talls in the top ten. Next year's draft will have mainly mids in the top ten.
We need talls for our structure, not another mid whilst we have Nash, Day, Worpel & Duke with Ward and Mackenzie yet to get a proper gig in the middle.
If we could trade our future 1st I'd say definitely do it, especially if it's to get us another top-10 this year or facilitate a trde for pick 1.

And on the same note about us having too many mids at the moment, that's the reason we wont pick McKercher this draft. If we keep pick 3 it'll be Duursma or Watson - nothing surer.

Stuff can change at AFL level but from what Ward and Mackenzie showed at u/18 level McKercher is decently ahead.

McKercher is the better talent personally and I hope that’s the direction we go if he’s available, can never have too many mids.

The more we can rotate through the middle the quicker we wear teams down. Ward and Mackenzie haven’t had much opportunity in the middle as they are quite up to it yet rather than having too many mids.

 

[killerspud]

Stuff can change at AFL level but from what Ward and Mackenzie showed at u/18 level McKercher is decently ahead.

McKercher is the better talent personally and I hope that’s the direction we go if he’s available, can never have too many mids.

The more we can rotate through the middle the quicker we wear teams down. Ward and Mackenzie haven’t had much opportunity in the middle as they are quite up to it yet rather than having too many mids.

you actually can have too many mids (bulldogs 2021 GF team proved this - Bont, Macrae, Libba, Dunkley, Treloar, Hunter, Bailey Smith - got absolutely caned by Oliver Petracca and Viney)

Its an even bigger problem when you don't have forwards to kick a winning score as last time I checked you need to score more goals than your opponent to win (but I am a woke immigrant who might not have got all of the subtleties of the game just yet)

 

[HedgeFund]

Basically the same timeline if you keep and use the other picks so that’s not really a relevant consideration.

It’s ultimately just a decision on the projected quality of the individuals involved. It will be for people to decide whether they project Reid to be that much better than the other players we’d likely draft. If other picks back equate to matching a McCabe bid it takes a bit of a different shape too

We didn’t win those flags because we got Hodge and the Croad back. It was falling to 2nd last in 2004 and picking Lewis, Franklin & Roughead in that draft which helped much better. Three picks from the first 7 gave us three players close to, and one probably better, than Luke Hodge.

Finally some common sense. Staggered at some of the deals being thrown around in here.

Agreed. I’d rather we were able to keep / gain more picks in / around the top 10 to hopefully get another brace of quality players (a la 2004) and not one single player (a la 2001)

 

[Alsmypal]

you actually can have too many mids (bulldogs 2021 GF team proved this - Bont, Macrae, Libba, Dunkley, Treloar, Hunter, Bailey Smith - got absolutely caned by Oliver Petracca and Viney)

Its an even bigger problem when you don't have forwards to kick a winning score as last time I checked you need to score more goals than your opponent to win (but I am a woke immigrant who might not have got all of the subtleties of the game just yet)

Bulldogs team actually made the GF and had it on their terms and blew it.
I agree that you do need forwards however I”d be taking best available of the three.
McKercher/Duursma/Watson.
Go all in on forwards through FA the following year.

 

[Billyc]

We didn’t win those flags because we got Hodge and the Croad back. It was falling to 2nd last in 2004 and picking Lewis, Franklin & Roughead in that draft which helped much better. Three picks from the first 7 gave us three players close to, and one probably better, than Luke Hodge.

Agreed. I’d rather we were able to keep / gain more picks in / around the top 10 to hopefully get another brace of quality players (a la 2004) and not one single player (a la 2001)

You are cherry picking from a great draft though as it certainly wasn’t our array of 2005 and 2006 early picks in Ellis, Dowler and Thorp.

It’s purely about quality of the individuals which is a judgment call. In some drafts several picks will be the way to go, in other drafts individuals will stand out. That’s the assessment clubs will be undertaking in assessing how far ahead of others they determine Reid is. I’m not welded one way or the other and don’t know enough myself but if Reid is assessed as being that level above, I’m comfortable moving multiple pieces