Resource 2024 AFL Draft discussion thread (Wed Nov 20 to Fri Nov 22)

[Crow till I die]

wait, now I'm confused.

Are saying that the interest in Smith is a bluff by Adelaide, or did we reveal our real interest in Smith to get carlton to reveal their real interest in Smith?

He meant that once Carlton dropped a hint about being into Draper, we read it and countered with us being keen to trade up to get Smith at 2 as we must have worked out quick that Carlton are quite keen on Smith - double bluff so to speak

 

[GROTTO]

That’s my read of it all.

Depends on Pick 2 and the permeations from there.

1. Lalor
2. FOS (Nth, Rich) Smith (Adelaide)
3. Smith / FOS (Carlton)
4. Draper (Adelaide)

So literally after all these weeks of everyone speculating we have finally come full circle and basically gone with our original choices.

 

[Draft Bored]

301 pages for 1 pick.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

yeah thats really interesting mate and thx for input. I just find it hard to accept that Kangas WOULD trade down to 4 and take Tauru if Crows came up with a F2. But in the absence of this F2 (as only 2 or 3 x F3's offered) that they would completely change their preferred pick (and its a structural pick in this case - not just choosing between mids for example) and instead go for FOS instead of Tauru - all due to the difference between a F2 and 2/3 F3's

I am certainly no expert at this but if I had to predict I feel Kangas NEED a Tauru type and will likely take him at 2 or 4 if trade with us (or 6 with Tiges trade assuming Dees dont at 5), and that Blues pick 3 may not be fait accompli as what they 'workshopped' with us and potentially other clubs on the weekend.

We will find out soon !

 

[GROTTO]

I don't understand why Richmond havent already got hold of North's selection, they would be mad not to give them 6 for 2 and a f2 or something.

Assume maybe North are keeping their options open?

Dees are there at Pick 5 to potentially take Tauru, its a genuine risk.

 

[jenny61_99]

Hi Jenny, personally not as keen on Smilie as we already have big bodied Curtin and Dawson and Edwards arent small. I would rather express PACE personally

Did you vote in the poll yet? Keen to see my Brissie mates - inc Mostyn - predictions

I've gone Jagger Smith. IF we could get him, I'd get him. But also happy with Draper.

 

[GROTTO]

Such a fascinating year.

I’ve been enjoying all of the mind and media games between Carl/Adelaide.

All the different scenarios were worked out over the weekend for both clubs and I think both will walk away happy.

Been a pleasure having you on here posting your thoughts and potential inside info Ive enjoyed the banter.

 

[GROTTO]

They should just do one pick per day starting in October

You joke, if the AFL could do this they would.

In a perfect world, they want the AFL to be 24/7, 365 days a year.

 

[119others]

Been a pleasure having you on here posting your thoughts and potential inside info Ive enjoyed the banter.

agreed C4 is a champ (assuming not working as a Double Agent )

 

[GROTTO]

agreed C4 is a champ (assuming not working as a Double Agent )

C4[2]Yo`DooR is a Crows supporter.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Correct

My feel is FOS might be going pick 2 no matter who holds the pick out of North Richmond or us

North would prefer to trade back to take Tauru if possible but likely doesn’t happen

I doubt they’ll take Tauru at 2 and instead take FOS

That’s my summation

Starting to think the diff clubs have a pretty similar talent order overall

Ie Lalor and FOS

Then Smith , Draper , Langford ( and Tauru for some )

So the simple has been made complex, when it is a relatively simple order

Think we are back where we started that there will be a gun midfielder at 4.
.
Likely to be Draper, but perhaps Smith.

Even if Roos take Tauru instead of FOS, we will be fine at #4.

 

[GROTTO]

So the simple has been made complex, when it is a relatively simple order

Think we are back where we started that there will be a gun midfielder at 4.
.
Likely to be Draper, but perhaps Smith.

Even if Roos take Tauru instead of FOS, we will be fine at #4.

Despite 300 pages on here, I still remember this was your initial thoughts, Vic team wont overlook the local Vic mids and Crows will take Draper, considering the evenness.

Its looking now like today its a fait accompli.

 

[GROTTO]

Tigers - Lalor
North - FOS
Blues - Smith
Crows - Draper

Outside of this, there could and will be sliders. Im sure an Ashcroft bid will come after Pick 1, probably by North to give them extra time to receive and consider potential trades for Pick 2.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Tigers - Lalor
North - FOS
Blues - Smith
Crows - Draper

Outside of this, there could and will be sliders. Im sure an Ashcroft bid will come after Pick 1, probably by North to give them extra time to receive and consider potential trades for Pick 2.

Be surprised if this wasn’t Twomeys order tonight

 

[GROTTO]

Be surprised if this wasn’t Twomeys order tonight

Did a quick peruse of the Tigers, North and Blues board, as of today, this appears to be thinking of their posters as well.

The potential bogey here being if on draft night, North make a late decision to trade Pick 2 out. Judging by their supporters, it looks like they now want FOS and will then try and offer their F1 in a trade or part of for Tauru should he slide.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Despite 300 pages on here, I still remember this was your initial thoughts, Vic team wont overlook the local Vic mids and Crows will take Draper, considering the evenness.

Its looking now like today its a fait accompli.

Hopefully... don't want to jinx us.

Think Carlton will prefer Smith over Draper, but obviously have met with Draper as in the mix.

Even if they do take Draper, would be very happy with Smith.

 

[Elder van Berlo]

I am not quite sure that I go along with our interest in trading up to pick 2 being misinformation to show Carlton we are interested in Jagga, or whatever.

The only reason to spread misinformation is to try to influence another party to do something that suits you.

At the top end of this draft, Richmond can do what they want, so they have no reason to spread misinformation. North Melbourne can do what they want subject to Richmond's pick (which realistically will be what it will be regardless of what North do), so they don't have much reason to spread misinformation either.

Now for Carlton, their risks are that Richmond take the guy they want, or North Melbourne take the guy they want, or North Melbourne trade their pick to someone who takes the guy they want. Realistically there's no way they can influence Richmond. But they might be able to influence North Melbourne. Wouldn't leaking their interest in the player who most would assume is the target of North Melbourne's most natural trading partner be a good way to make that trade more likely?

In other words, I suspect Carlton's alleged interest in Draper is a ruse. They want us to panic and trade up to pick 2 to get Draper, because they don't actually want to pick Draper themselves. Carlton thinks North Melbourne are more likely to take Carlton's man than the Crows are.

I'm not saying Carlton don't rate Draper at all. Just that I think they are happy for us to get up to 2 and take him because they are looking elsewhere at 3 - and they think that if North Melbourne (or Richmond) are picking at 2, they might lose their target. On that basis I suspect Carlton really want FOS (although I would defer to C4[2]Yo`DooR).

For us though, what advantage do we get by telegraphing (whether correctly or falsely) our interest in trading up for Jagga? Does it actually achieve anything for anyone to know that? Either we pick at 2 and pick who we want there, or we pick at 4 and pick who we want there, but we are not in a position to be influencing anything that happens ahead of us.

So I suspect that our interest in trading up to 2 is real. For who, I don't know. But increasingly it's feeling like Draper or Jagga for us.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Did a quick peruse of the Tigers, North and Blues board, as of today, this appears to be thinking of their posters as well.

The potential bogey here being if on draft night, North make a late decision to trade Pick 2 out. Judging by their supporters, it looks like they now want FOS and will then try and offer their F1 in a trade or part of for Tauru should he slide.

They wanted more than our 2x3 future 3rds to slide, when there was really little for us to gain.

Richmond were the only obvious taker for #2, but for some reason they are not interested.

Dees are a chance to take Tauru, so Roos may have to pay a premium if they take FOS with pick #2.

 

[119others]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/draft/afl-draft-2024-every-clubs-targets-and-potential-pick-swaps-ahead-of-wednesday-night/news-story/857eb542fa9d223a2a0fd89520c6b101

OK VERY last one from the dozens of questions posed on H/Sun today - this one from a smart cookie (who also sounds dashingly handsome I must say)


2 hours ago
Chris, how much 'misinformation' is done at this time of year? eg Blues WONT take Draper at 3 if FOS or Smith is available according to an 'in the know' person
Chris Cavanagh
1 hour ago
Clubs do play some mind games between each other and with the media. Clubs generally won’t tell you exactly what they are doing, so it’s hard to be too definitive on anything. But the more people you talk to, the more the puzzle comes together.

 

[Mutineer]

I am not quite sure that I go along with our interest in trading up to pick 2 being misinformation to show Carlton we are interested in Jagga, or whatever.

The only reason to spread misinformation is to try to influence another party to do something that suits you.

At the top end of this draft, Richmond can do what they want, so they have no reason to spread misinformation. North Melbourne can do what they want subject to Richmond's pick (which realistically will be what it will be regardless of what North do), so they don't have much reason to spread misinformation either.

Now for Carlton, their risks are that Richmond take the guy they want, or North Melbourne take the guy they want, or North Melbourne trade their pick to someone who takes the guy they want. Realistically there's no way they can influence Richmond. But they might be able to influence North Melbourne. Wouldn't leaking their interest in the player who most would assume is the target of North Melbourne's most natural trading partner be a good way to make that trade more likely?

In other words, I suspect Carlton's alleged interest in Draper is a ruse. They want us to panic and trade up to pick 2 to get Draper, because they don't actually want to pick Draper themselves. Carlton thinks North Melbourne are more likely to take Carlton's man than the Crows are.

I'm not saying Carlton don't rate Draper at all. Just that I think they are happy for us to get up to 2 and take him because they are looking elsewhere at 3 - and they think that if North Melbourne (or Richmond) are picking at 2, they might lose their target. On that basis I suspect Carlton really want FOS (although I would defer to C4[2]Yo`DooR).

For us though, what advantage do we get by telegraphing (whether correctly or falsely) our interest in trading up for Jagga? Does it actually achieve anything for anyone to know that? Either we pick at 2 and pick who we want there, or we pick at 4 and pick who we want there, but we are not in a position to be influencing anything that happens ahead of us.

So I suspect that our interest in trading up to 2 is real. For who, I don't know. But increasingly it's feeling like Draper or Jagga for us.

Seems a lot of effort if it's a ruse to fly Michael Voss and the recruiting team over to SA for a meet and greet with the Draper family? I think their interest is very real but that doesn't mean he's a lock either?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I am not quite sure that I go along with our interest in trading up to pick 2 being misinformation to show Carlton we are interested in Jagga, or whatever.

The only reason to spread misinformation is to try to influence another party to do something that suits you.

At the top end of this draft, Richmond can do what they want, so they have no reason to spread misinformation. North Melbourne can do what they want subject to Richmond's pick (which realistically will be what it will be regardless of what North do), so they don't have much reason to spread misinformation either.

Now for Carlton, their risks are that Richmond take the guy they want, or North Melbourne take the guy they want, or North Melbourne trade their pick to someone who takes the guy they want. Realistically there's no way they can influence Richmond. But they might be able to influence North Melbourne. Wouldn't leaking their interest in the player who most would assume is the target of North Melbourne's most natural trading partner be a good way to make that trade more likely?

In other words, I suspect Carlton's alleged interest in Draper is a ruse. They want us to panic and trade up to pick 2 to get Draper, because they don't actually want to pick Draper themselves. Carlton thinks North Melbourne are more likely to take Carlton's man than the Crows are.

I'm not saying Carlton don't rate Draper at all. Just that I think they are happy for us to get up to 2 and take him because they are looking elsewhere at 3 - and they think that if North Melbourne (or Richmond) are picking at 2, they might lose their target. On that basis I suspect Carlton really want FOS (although I would defer to C4[2]Yo`DooR).

For us though, what advantage do we get by telegraphing (whether correctly or falsely) our interest in trading up for Jagga? Does it actually achieve anything for anyone to know that? Either we pick at 2 and pick who we want there, or we pick at 4 and pick who we want there, but we are not in a position to be influencing anything that happens ahead of us.

So I suspect that our interest in trading up to 2 is real. For who, I don't know. But increasingly it's feeling like Draper or Jagga for us.

If Carlton want FOS over Smith then yes it suits them to get us to trade up to #2..

We just need to stay calm.

 

[Mutineer]

 

[GROTTO]

We just need to stay calm.

You are genuinely asking a lot from the AFC especially given our history.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Seems a lot of effort if it's a ruse to fly Michael Voss and the recruiting team over to SA for a meet and greet with the Draper family? I think their interest is very real but that doesn't mean he's a lock either?

It's due diligence to speak to all potential top end draftees.

The Blues would have numerous talks with all possibles.

 

[GROTTO]

Seems a lot of effort if it's a ruse to fly Michael Voss and the recruiting team over to SA for a meet and greet with the Draper family? I think their interest is very real but that doesn't mean he's a lock either?

Blues board as of today, seem aligned to the fact they are most likely taking Smith.