Resource 2024 AFL Draft discussion thread (Wed Nov 20 to Fri Nov 22)

[Scorpus]

I’d be pretty disappointed if we’re involving our F1 in any capacity considering the proximity in talent between the top four prospects.

Let North hold onto 2 and draft another 180cm midfielder if they want, we’re still guaranteed one of Jagga, FOS, Draper, or Lalor.

Well there's no way North should accept a few picks in the 40s or 50s to downgrade from pick 2 to 4

 

[PeterSalt]

Twomey on sen breakfast today said us and north have chatted about a pick swap involving 2 and 4.

First mentioned it on gettable but was more a suggestion, today he outright confirmed it.

Apparently Richmond not interested in an early swap.

Assuming our f1 is off the table, not sure how much we can offer other than our future 3rds (or somehow combine them into a second or future second).

The idea would be that north are taking tauru anyway so they might as well get a bit more draft capital out of it and 4 is a safe spot for tauru.

I’d have thought Melbourne or even st kilda would offer a better deal but I suppose that comes with the risk of tauru being off the tabl, particularly the saints pick.

Not sure if we are worried about Carlton taking our ideal player, possibly it’s just a safeguard in case north trade with someone else would could pose a risk?

Regardless it seems a bit unlikely to me but Twomey wouldn’t bring it up out of nowhere.

Can we trade 2027 picks live this draft?

 

[Eddie Murphy]

Well there's no way North should accept a few picks in the 40s or 50s to downgrade from pick 2 to 4

The idea would be more combing our 3 F3s and 2 F4s into an F2. North get a free second rounder and the player they wanted at 2.

Or, they’d prefer holding 2 and drafting another midfielder. Doesn’t bother me, we’re guaranteed one of the big 4 regardless.

Surely we can agree there’s not enough difference in talent amongst the top 4 to involve a future 1st.

 

[Captain Furious]

18 to 21 sounds okay to me

I see what you did there.

 

[Big Dub]

Given that no one else is interested in trading, North are pretty much stuck with what we have to give, or just taking their pick at 2.

I'd give up our third round picks for sure, but I agree that's not really very exciting for North unless someone cobbles that into a second.

Someone else mentioned a deal with North, ourselves and GWS, where we gave up our current and future first and ended up with pick 2 and GWS's future first. That could be a 4 pick slide in a compromised draft next year if we do well, or a 10 pick slide from the still good part of the draft next year.

We'd have to be confident that GWS wouldn't be that far ahead of us at the end of next season (and the difference between 2 and 4 this year is material).

Smith and Langford (and Lalor and FOS) are considered top 5 draftees and Draper is considered by many to be just outside the top 5. If we think that Draper is top 5 worthy, why the hell would we trade anything out? Draper is more likely than any other "top 5" to slip to us, and if he doesn't we get a player widely regarded (if not in here) as better than Draper.

 

[Mutineer]

I’d be pretty disappointed if we’re involving our F1 in any capacity considering the proximity in talent between the top four prospects.

Let North hold onto 2 and draft another 180cm midfielder if they want, we’re still guaranteed one of Jagga, FOS, Draper, or Lalor.

How we as draft watchers see the talent as "even" in the top 4 is obviously different to our recruiters if Twomey's info has legs.

 

[Eddie Murphy]

How we as draft watchers see the talent as "even" in the top 4 is obviously different to our recruiters if Twomey's info has legs.

I’m not denying we might have a clear favourite but we’d be rating them remarkably higher than the others if we’re happy to use a F1 to get him.

 

[Draft Bored]

I reckon this has potential when you consider the following AND MY POINT AT THE END;

• RICH are interested in improving their 2025 hand
• NM want 2 picks

Essentially we'd be trading our F1 for Richmonds pick 18 + F2. Their F2 will be pick 19.

ADL: 2 + F2 (RICH)
RICH: F1 (ADL)
NM: 4 + 18

Let's say we finish 7th next year, thats a drop from 12 to 19. NOW HEAR ME OUT...

A number of teams in the first round next year will be needing to trade down due to their academy kids and higher bidding costs. So having pick 19 + 3 thirds next year will make it easy to get a trade back into the first round for all the teams wanting to trade out for more points. So while it might look like we don't have a F1 for 12 months, I think getting it back would be very realistic.

 

[Draft Bored]

I reckon this has potential when you consider the following AND MY POINT AT THE END;

• RICH are interested in improving their 2025 hand
• NM want 2 picks

Essentially we'd be trading our F1 for Richmonds pick 18 + F2. Their F2 will be pick 19.

ADL: 2 + F2 (RICH)
RICH: F1 (ADL)
NM: 4 + 18

Let's say we finish 7th next year, thats a drop from 12 to 19. NOW HEAR ME OUT...

A number of teams in the first round next year will be needing to trade down due to their academy kids and higher bidding costs. So having pick 19 + 3 thirds next year will make it easy to get a trade back into the first round for all the teams wanting to trade out for more points. So while it might look like we don't have a F1 for 12 months, I think getting it back would be very realistic.

I think it would also benefit Richmond because it gets us away from the Langford range who I think they want at 6. If they can help us get FOS/DRAPER/SMITH, they're more likely to get their boy at 6.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

This is negligence if we are thinking like this. Losing elite players before their prime is shit and we aren't great at getting good returns. The return you are getting is also highly speculative.

In this day and age you have to place some weight (not much) on location.

So are you going to predict the future.

Awesome!

We would be stuffed if we picked all locals.

 

[Afcprophet]

People getting their hopes up... More likely to trade down the draft order for a future second coming back.

Then draft a slow tall, or a fast endurance beast who can't play football with our first pick. Both to be delisted after 4 seasons playing around 60 games.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I wonder if the top few are ranked as closely by the clubs as they are by us noobs in draft watcher land?

Yep I think then it will come down to interviews , who the coach likes etc

I think overall we underestimate how much the interviews have a bearing as amateur draft watchers

* when it’s even on talent

 

[LoBu]

What is NAS?

Nasiah

 

[AFC979810]

Who do you think that player is that's that far above the others that we'd compromise our F1 for them?

No idea. I don't follow them that closely.

My assertion is this?

If the recruiters genuinely believe there is a generational talent that they can only get at pick 2 - then you trade pick 4 and a F1 to get him without hesitation.

I am not saying there is a player like that - just that if the recruiters think there is - then you do it.

Gather you are not following the draft very closely this year!!

The draft experts are glorified meteorologists.

I'm sure every recruiters would love the list manager to trade all chips into the current draft every year.

Which is why they are recruiters and not list managers.

You would think they should be joined at the hip. Its inevetibaly a club decision.

Are you telling me if you had pick 4 in the 2014 national draft (McCartin, Petracca, Brayshaw, Pickett) you wouldn't give up pick 4 and a future 1st to grab Petracca at 2?

 

[WeeBlake]

Yep I think then it will come down to interviews , who the coach likes etc

I think overall we underestimate how much the interviews have a bearing as amateur draft watchers

* when it’s even on talent

Not only where talent is even.

i think you’d pick a slightly lesser talent with huge will to win over a slightly more talented but flaky player.

Having said that, I’m not sure interviews are the best way to work that out. Ppl can speak very convincingly in interviews and actually behave very differently.

 

[Mutineer]

Interesting looking at the top end midfielders "CEILING" and "DISPOSAL" as adjudged by Rookie Me

2024 AFL Draft Guide View

2024 AFL Draft Guide The 2024 AFL Draft Guide features individual full-page profiles on each of the available AFL Draft Combine invitees.

central.rookieme.com

In Alphabetical Order.

CEILING - DISPOSAL

Bo Allan - ELITE - AVERAGE
Levi Ashcroft - ELITE - ABOVE AVERAGE
Sid Draper - ELITE - AVERAGE
Sam Lalor - ELITE - ABOVE AVERAGE
Harvey Langford - ABOVE AVERAGE - AVERAGE
Xavier Lindsay - ABOVE AVERAGE - ELITE
Leo Lombard - ABOVE AVERAGE - AVERAFE
Finn O'Sullivan - ELITE - AVERAGE
Murphy Reid - ABOVE AVERAGE - ELITE
Josh Smillie - ELITE - ABOVE AVERAGE
Jagga Smith - ELITE - ABOVE AVERAGE

 

[AFC979810]

Let us know who that player is

Then in 13 months time we will let you know who the player we would have liked with our 2025 1st rounder that we can’t get

What a silly thing to say. You draft nerds get awfully uppity.

I am not saying there is a guy like that nor have I suggest any knowledge of these players.

My point remains that if the recruiters you pay a shitload of money to - truly believe that there is a generational talent at pick 2, then to offer pick 4 and a future first to get him -is a small price to pay.

Now whether I trust our recruiters to make the correct decision - is a whole other story.

We have been a part of a trade just like this in 2019. With the benefit of hindsight we won the trade with GWS where we traded pick 4 to the Giants for pick 6 and a F1. Picks 4 & 5 ended up being Lachlan Ash & Dylan Stephens. (We then flubbed it by taking McAsey instead of Serong).

 

[Peter Doherty]

Interesting looking at the top end midfielders "CEILING" and "DISPOSAL" as adjudged by Rookie Me

2024 AFL Draft Guide View

2024 AFL Draft Guide The 2024 AFL Draft Guide features individual full-page profiles on each of the available AFL Draft Combine invitees.

central.rookieme.com

In Alphabetical Order.

CEILING - DISPOSAL

Bo Allan - ELITE - AVERAGE
Levi Ashcroft - ELITE - ABOVE AVERAGE
Sid Draper - ELITE - AVERAGE
Sam Lalor - ELITE - ABOVE AVERAGE
Harvey Langford - ABOVE AVERAGE - AVERAGE
Xavier Lindsay - ABOVE AVERAGE - ELITE
Leo Lombard - ABOVE AVERAGE - AVERAFE
Finn O'Sullivan - ELITE - AVERAGE
Murphy Reid - ABOVE AVERAGE - ELITE
Josh Smillie - ELITE - ABOVE AVERAGE
Jagga Smith - ELITE - ABOVE AVERAGE

What wank.

 

[noobermensch]

Full season highlights for Harvey Langford. These highlights demonstrate what a consistently powerful and prolific season Langford has had, in terms of sheer performance level perhaps only matched by Jagga Smith. Deservedly named joint Larke medalist, and demonstrated his leadership traits in propelling both his Vic Country and Dandenong Stingrays teams to excellent seasons even if they did ultimately fall short of the major trophies. If he can overcome some concerns around his athletic profile, he could end up starring at the next level.

 

[AFC979810]

What wank.

L. Ron Hubbard was actually a draft expert before he started writing his books and founded scientology.

 

[Crows I Am]

The idea would be more combing our 3 F3s and 2 F4s into an F2. North get a free second rounder and the player they wanted at 2.

Or, they’d prefer holding 2 and drafting another midfielder. Doesn’t bother me, we’re guaranteed one of the big 4 regardless.

Surely we can agree there’s not enough difference in talent amongst the top 4 to involve a future 1st.

Or North may end up just taking Tauru with their pick 2 if they are desperate to get him and they can't find any takers for their trade. That then leaves another option for us to take at 4.

 

[spenze]

Full season highlights for Harvey Langford. These highlights demonstrate what a consistently powerful and prolific season Langford has had, in terms of sheer performance level perhaps only matched by Jagga Smith. Deservedly named joint Larke medalist, and demonstrated his leadership traits in propelling both his Vic Country and Dandenong Stingrays teams to excellent seasons even if they did ultimately fall short of the major trophies. If he can overcome some concerns around his athletic profile, he could end up starring at the next level.

Geez, doesn't look slow in that video

 

[WeeBlake]

Ok now I like Langford too