2024 Draft Thread.

[RWB4life]

Can someone do a worst case phantom draft? like all mids taken before our picks kind of thing?

1Ascroft
2Smith
3 fos
4 Langford
5 draper
6 Lalor
7 smilie
8 us Reid
9 us other - travaglia/lindsay/Armstrong

We get 1 but hard to say who

 

[HeavenlySources]

1Ascroft
2Smith
3 fos
4 Langford
5 draper
6 Lalor
7 smilie
8 us Reid
9 us other - travaglia/lindsay/Armstrong

We get 1 but hard to say who

so IF we get the illusive band 1, two top of the top group is still just out of reach. Unless someone else takes Armstrong in the top 7. That's annoying. We are really relying on other dominoes to fall.

 

[OxSaint]

I feel like our drafting has change in recent years for the better. We are more inclined to draft players at least one elite attribute. In the past we had a tendency to take good all round prospects that lack an elite trait.

I think the bigger mids and fwd/mid position is well stocked and hope we avoid Langford and Smillie. Lalor would be perfect but unlikely. In our range the likes of Travaglia, Draper, Tuaru and Lindsay all appeal and offer some elite traits. As much as I would love two mids (if the afl am does the right thing of coarse) it looks like most, if not all, of the top end ones will be gone.

Armstrong is another in our range that we might have to consider.

 

[RWB4life]

so IF we get the illusive band 1, two top of the top group is still just out of reach. Unless someone else takes Armstrong in the top 7. That's annoying. We are really relying on other dominoes to fall.

Pretty much and we don't get a pick of the mid. I'm not a huge fan of Reid, but if he's the only one there we take him.

Higgin's goal probably wasn't worth it but what can you do. Who knows what will happen with trading. Melbourne could finally take a tall. Richmond could have 6 and might want a tall themselves or rate travaglia highly and know we'll take him otherwise. It's hard to say but hopefully two get through.

 

[akaifu]

I feel like our drafting has change in recent years for the better. We are more inclined to draft players at least one elite attribute. In the past we had a tendency to take good all round prospects that lack an elite trait.

I think the bigger mids and fwd/mid position is well stocked and hope we avoid Langford and Smillie. Lalor would be perfect but unlikely. In our range the likes of Travaglia, Draper, Tuaru and Lindsay all appeal and offer some elite traits. As much as I would love two mids (if the afl am does the right thing of coarse) it looks like most, if not all, of the top end ones will be gone.

Armstrong is another in our range that we might have to consider.

I really hope a club above us takes Langford. I like him as a player so if he falls to our pick I'd take him but I feel like he's gonna flop so easily so I don't want us to have the option of taking him

I wouldn't avoid Smillie, his profile is so similar to Tom Green's which is a good sign. Travaglia is next up for me out of the tier 2s - I think competitiveness is one of the most important factors for a half back to move into the midfield and Travaglia has it. I'm very confident he'll at least be a solid AFL player - Will Day, Sinclair, Young, Laird, Ed Richards all quite similar with that attribute

 

[SaintlyHymns]

1Ascroft
2Smith
3 fos
4 Langford
5 draper
6 Lalor
7 smilie
8 us Reid
9 us other - travaglia/lindsay/Armstrong

We get 1 but hard to say who

Say we get dreaded Band 2, I wonder if the strategy could be to use pick 19 and package to enhance our top pick. If we’re really set on one (e.g. Lalor).

Or given the depth we grab two mids and hope one can turn into a star?

 

[TheJackal]

so IF we get the illusive band 1, two top of the top group is still just out of reach. Unless someone else takes Armstrong in the top 7. That's annoying. We are really relying on other dominoes to fall.

Not going to lie, this has been my fear since the ball was in Jack Higgins' hands (and my head was in mine).

I guess thats assuming random phantom drafters are 100% spot on based on what recruiters are thinking.

I remember last year Leake was going top 10, Windsor could've been taken where Wilson went, etc etc - this year is potentially the year where there are VERY VERY different thoughts among recruiters, let alone random amateur phantom drafters.

Someone like Travaglia might go top 3, a club not obsessed with the CTL might think Bo Allan is the best player in this draft. Who knows this year, I could almost guarantee there would be surprises based on what us casual observers believe at this stage.

 

[Yabadoo22]

My uneducated opinion of what percent chance each player makes it to our pick.

O'Sullivan 5%
Smith 10%
Lalor 20%
Draper 30%
Smillie 40%
Langford 50%
Reid 50%

 

[akaifu]

Not going to lie, this has been my fear since the ball was in Jack Higgins' hands (and my head was in mine).

I guess thats assuming random phantom drafters are 100% spot on based on what recruiters are thinking.

I remember last year Leake was going top 10, Windsor could've been taken where Wilson went, etc etc - this year is potentially the year where there are VERY VERY different thoughts among recruiters, let alone random amateur phantom drafters.

Someone like Travaglia might go top 3, a club not obsessed with the CTL might think Bo Allan is the best player in this draft. Who knows this year, I could almost guarantee there would be surprises based on what us casual observers believe at this stage.

Which is why I'm not too worried. I think we can be pretty confident that we'll get two of FOS, Jagga, Draper, Smillie, Langford, Lalor (Draper and Smillie would be elite) . Otherwise, split pick 8

I'm trying to manifest this scenario:

1. Jagga (RICH)
2. Langford (RICH) (pick 6&10 (via Rioli & Bolton) for pick 2)
3. Draper (WCE)
4. Lalor (ADEL)
5. Reid (Melb)
6. Armstrong (Norf)
7. FOS (STK)!!!!!!!!
8. SMILLIE (STK)

 

[joydivision22]

Can someone do a worst case phantom draft? like all mids taken before our picks kind of thing?

Worst case: (apart from B2)

1. J. Smith - Rich
2. S. Lalor - North
3. F. O’Sullivan - WC
4. S. Draper - Adel
5. M. Reid - Melb
6. H. Langford - Rich (Rioli)
7. J. Smilie - Stk
8. Armstrong - Stk?? (B1 Battle)

That’s if North and all others hold their pick and wants best available, which I feel is unlikely.

At any rate, Smilie is the one that tips out in all worst case scenarios.

Most likely I think;

1. J. Smith - Rich
2. H. Langford - Rich (Nth-Swap)
3. S. Lalor - WC
4. S. Draper - Adel
5. F. O’Sullivan - Melb
6. H. Armstrong - Nth (Rich-Swap) (GC-Rioli)
7. M. Reid - Stk
8. J. Smilie - Stk (B1-Battle)

What could be..

1. J. Smith - Rich
2. S. Lalor - Stk (Nth-Swap)
3. F. O’Sullivan - WC
4. S. Draper - Adel
5. M. Reid - Melb
6. H. Langford - Rich
7. H. Armstrong - North
8. J. Smilie/A. Tauru - North (B1-Battle - North)

We should also move our F1 for freos pick given they are right in the hunt for Warner.

We’d have 2 Lalor 11 Lindsay/Travaglia (Freo) 22 (North) Hynes/Hanneford 24 (Stk) any one of the talls left

 

[Sarcoidevo]

I read somewhere that Toce is keen on Langford but if the Tigers get Pick 6 from GC I dont think they will need to go Pick 2 to get Langford ... reckon he will be available at that spot

We know Tigers, West Coast & Adelaide will probably go mid .... Jagga / Draper / Lalor / FOS

But what are North & Dees looking at?

North doesn't necessarily need mids and both seemingly need talls

Re: Travaglia ... I just dont see it ... he is not a mid .... and we need mids

 

[HeavenlySources]

I read somewhere that Toce is keen on Langford but if the Tigers get Pick 6 from GC I dont think they will need to go Pick 2 to get Langford ... reckon he will be available at that spot

We know Tigers, West Coast & Adelaide will probably go mid .... Jagga / Draper / Lalor / FOS

But what are North & Dees looking at?

North doesn't necessarily need mids and both seemingly need talls

Re: Travaglia ... I just dont see it ... he is not a mid .... and we need mids

if they wanted the tigers could literally get 1,2,3 so many options with their draft hand. Gotta say it would be exactly what we need.