2024 Draft Thread.

[Mat Mann]

Draft Period, November 20–21

• Round 1 of the National Draft: Wednesday, November 20
• Round 2–end of the National Draft: Thursday, November 21
• Rookie Promotions: Thursday, November 21, after the National Draft
• Delisted Free Agency Period (3): Thursday, November 21, after the National Draft
• List Lodgement 3*: Friday, November 22, 10am (optional; required for those participating in the PSD)
• Pre-Season Draft: Friday, November 22, 3pm
• Rookie Draft: Friday, November 22, 3.20pm

 

[GYoung]

Melbourne only have picks 5 & 9 this year and they traded-out their first next year to get pick 9.

They cannot trade-up. They have no draft capital.


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Could they trade 5 and 9 for 2?

 

[BigMonty]

You would have to think that Norf if they want Tauru?? Then pick 6 gets the player surely Tigers take a tall at 10 or 11 and Ds are a chance at 9 and us at 8.
So pick 6 makes sense or just take the risk that best available is not Tauru until 20 or what they trade up to.

6 and 11 for 2.

We have the first call on sliding back down the draft for other picks with pick 8.

Prefer Smilie and Reid and Tigs pick 12 for our future picks. Going to be an interesting night draft night.

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[St Neil]

Could they trade 5 and 9 for 2?

Yes. They could.

But it leaves them with only one pick in the draft.

Very strange decision to do that because they could get a gun mid and the second best tall in the draft.

But you never know.


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[BigMonty]

Yes. They could.

But it leaves them with only one pick in the draft.

Very strange decision to do that because they could get a gun mid and the second best tall in the draft.

But you never know.


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Amalgamate 2 for 1...I wouldn't do that in this draft except if I was the Tigers and even then....not sure.

Norf might find no takers for their downgrade.
Would we do pick 7 and next years first and second for 2 and something else. Too right I would as it's the best deal Norf can get.

Tigers could be all over us to get 2 as a result.

Sonny Weaver come on down.. Get 6 and 11 and David Goddamn Putney at 24 just because I can.



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[akaifu]

2022 is the question mark.

Phillipou
Van Es - 31
Hotton - 35 ?
Keeler - 44 ?
Rookie - McLennan (NGA) ?

Hotton is doubtful.
Keeler is possible but he needs to get a wriggle on. McLennan shows promise but is still uncertain.

We need two of Hotton, Keeler and McLennan to make it to stay on track.

If Collard makes it then I think 2023 is a slam dunk with the exception of Bonner who was from the PSD.

Nailing a slam dunk in 2024 might offset the misses in 2022. But this year is a very important draft for the club.

I disagree with this. Although ideally we do see another success or two from that draft, I think its not the end of the world if Pou is the only success

Brisbane screwed up 2015 (Schache @ pick 2, Hipwood, Keays, Mathieson) and still recovered.

I'd say our 2021 (Nas, Owens, Windy) crop is similar to their 2017 (Rayner, Bailey, Starc)

2023 (Wilson, Collard, Hastie, Garcia, Arie) looks like their 2016 (Clug, Berry, Omac)

If we do well this year - better than their 2014 (which was just Andrews) - we are already ahead of them even if 2022 fails (but this margin will be recovered by the compromised drafts in the coming years where we don't get the annual influx of AFL-level starting talent; like Wilmot, Ashcroft, Coleman etc)

What we need is to develop at least another one or two A-graders. I have high hopes for Pou, but need another superstar to join him. Wilson maybe but we've only seen one year of him. Also need King or another KPP to become A-grade - like Andrews did

Then we need at least one A-grade FA/trade target ala 2018 Lachie Neale (before his brownlows so not exactly a superstar at the time). Ideally its a guy like LDU who still has upside to become a top 5 player of the comp

 

[Coach_Required]

Just throwing out hypotheticals but would saints consider trading pick 7 for 11 & 20?

Or is 7 & 8 too valuable for what you guys want this draft?

 

[akaifu]

Just throwing out hypotheticals but would saints consider trading pick 7 for 11 & 20?

Or is 7 & 8 too valuable for what you guys want this draft?

7 is off the table. 8 is possible

 

[TheJackal]

Real question, and something we may need to get our head around..

What do we do if the draft goes like this...

1. RIC - Lalor
2. NM - FOS
3. CAR - Draper
4. ADE - Smith
5. MEL - Langford
6. RIC - Smillie

Because I legitimately don't know, and I would be pretty bitter.

Get angry at Higgins again...

But really, Tauru, Reid, Lindsay, Allan, Hotton, Hynes, Armstrong, Berry, Trainer, Travaglia - they are all there still.

I'd either take Reid & Tauru, take Reid and trade 8 or play the short term trade game. You'd think North would give up a fair bit for Tauru, maybe their F1. Likewise Richmond for a smaller mid or tall.

Either way, there are so many options with Richmond & GWS in the current draft looking like the most likely to get multiple teens picks.

 

[St Neil]

I disagree with this. Although ideally we do see another success or two from that draft, I think its not the end of the world if Pou is the only success

Brisbane screwed up 2015 (Schache @ pick 2, Hipwood, Keays, Mathieson) and still recovered.

I'd say our 2021 (Nas, Owens, Windy) crop is similar to their 2017 (Rayner, Bailey, Starc)

2023 (Wilson, Collard, Hastie, Garcia, Arie) looks like their 2016 (Clug, Berry, Omac)

If we do well this year - better than their 2014 (which was just Andrews) - we are already ahead of them even if 2022 fails (but this margin will be recovered by the compromised drafts in the coming years where we don't get the annual influx of AFL-level starting talent; like Wilmot, Ashcroft, Coleman etc)

What we need is to develop at least another one or two A-graders. I have high hopes for Pou, but need another superstar to join him. Wilson maybe but we've only seen one year of him. Also need King or another KPP to become A-grade - like Andrews did

Then we need at least one A-grade FA/trade target ala 2018 Lachie Neale (before his brownlows so not exactly a superstar at the time). Ideally its a guy like LDU who still has upside to become a top 5 player of the comp

View attachment 2147865

I don’t think it is the end of the world if we only have one hit from 2022, but I think it puts us behind schedule. Especially when we acknowledge that the drafts of 2025, 2026 and 2027 are probably less likely to afford us with the same opportunities to grab elite talent.

Not impossible, but less likely. That is both realistic and fair.

It’s why I am keen for us to get as many quality picks as possible from this draft and to create list spots if we have to. And it’s why (IMO) the misses from 2022 are important.

We can get these additional picks by splitting pick 8 if the player available to us isn’t a stand-out for what we want, or by bundling future picks to jump up the order while maintaining (as much as is practicable) the strength of our draft hand.

For the record, this is how I see our drafts from 2021, with my personal assessment on whether lads are likely to make it. Others may disagree with my assessments.

On balance, I think we have done very well. But 2022 is the uncertainty. It would a boost if a couple of question marks come up trumps.

2021
NWM - 11
Owens - 33
Windhager - 47
Adams - 51
Rookie - Peris
Rookie - Kyle

2022
Phillipou - 10
Van Es - 31
Hotton - 35
Keeler - 44
Rookie - McLennan (NGA)

2023
Wilson - 18
Collard - 28
Hastie - 33
Garcia - 50
Schoenmaker - 62
PSD - Bonner


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[St Neil]

Just throwing out hypotheticals but would saints consider trading pick 7 for 11 & 20?

Or is 7 & 8 too valuable for what you guys want this draft?

We will not trade 7. We get a quality mid at that pick.

8 is possible, depending on who is available at that pick on draft night.


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[Fehring]

This is revisionist history only reason Phantoms like Cals had McCartin at 1 was because they had word that StKilda was likely to take him over Petracca. It was a shock then and only looks worse in hindsight.

We got spooked by the Tom Boyd trade and decided it was cheaper to draft a key forward than trade for one. Broke the golden rule of the draft always go best available.

Petracca was a clear standout no 1 all year till the Saints got windy in the last month leading up to the draft.

Is clearly in the top 5 worst draft decisions of all time. Up there with Richmond choosing Tambling over Buddy

I don’t blame them for Bont - Boyd Kelly and Billing’s were clear top 3 that year Bulldogs to a punt on Bonts potential at 4 he was the late season bolter based more on potential rather than performance

This is spot on IMO. Twomey's phantom had Patty at 1 but his rankings had Tracc. At 1. https://www.afl.com.au/news/443857/phantom-draft-form-guide-november-update

I am unaware of any expert ranking Paddy at 1 (as opposed to having him in the phantom at 1) though it was a long time ago. Would be interested in seeing any evidence to the contrary.

I spoke to one of the Saints key draft people a few days out and remember being floored when he said Petracca wasn't a lock. I wasn't a draft watcher. I had no expertise. I was floored bc Petracca was the experts' consensus best player.

 

[Sarcoidevo]

Don’t be surprised if Melbourne try to trade up the draft

I heard a player manager talking about it yesterday

If that's the case they would have to be trading up for one of the top rated Mids .... unless they want to get ahead of North to take the tall that North might want .... but North are the only likely suitor for them to trade with

If its a mid they want ... which one?

 

[TheJackal]

You would have to think that Norf if they want Tauru?? Then pick 6 gets the player surely Tigers take a tall at 10 or 11 and Ds are a chance at 9 and us at 8.
So pick 6 makes sense or just take the risk that best available is not Tauru until 20 or what they trade up to.

6 and 11 for 2.

We have the first call on sliding back down the draft for other picks with pick 8.

Prefer Smilie and Reid and Tigs pick 12 for our future picks. Going to be an interesting night draft night.

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First bit really depends on which tall the Dees and North may want, or Richmond for that matter.

Richmond is an interesting one, theres a big group of talls just like theres a big group of mids. Hear me out here... i might start waffling.

Tiges are obviously in the best spot for the best mid of the mid group, pick 1 will do that... but are they in the best spot for the best tall? Not if they want to take 2 of those top mids.

They may be happy enough getting Shanahan, Faull, Whitlocks at 10/11 etc, but they also may absolutely rate Tauru & Armstrong much higher. There's no way don't don't take one or two talls this draft.

So, even with all of their picks, they are in a bit of a spot, North have 2, Dees have 5, Tigers have 6, all in the market for talls at some point. Are the Tiges happy to miss those top 2 talls? They simply cannot take a tall with pick 1 which leaves them stuck at pick 6 (if they want one of those 2 talls).

So onto North, it's assumed 6 and change would go to North for pick 2. We know North love their mids, but the assumption is they'll take a tall by sliding back to 6. I'm not completely convinced as they don't really have many tall mids but that's another conversation... so should North trade down, Richmond now risk missing the tall they like. Getting 2 mids are worth it for me but maybe not for Tigers who may see a better mix for their needs.

Now onto the Dees who have 5 & 9, we have 8, Richmond have the picks to trade with us to sneak in front of the Dees if they go mid at 5. If Dees take Armstong with their 5 and North take Tauru at 6, getting in front of 9 for a tall wont be a thing for Tiges. So does that mean the Dees would need to go tall first like Armstrong at 5? Then a mid like Reid at 9? Is Armstrong & Reid a better outcome than Langford & Shanahan for the Dees? Only they can answer that based on their lists.

Of course these hypotheticals only rely on those 2 talls being rated so far ahead of others - which only the clubs know.

Either way, there are a lot of variations this year that can play out within this top 10 and if it all goes our way, we could end up with 2 of those top mids - which is what I think im manifesting..

I dont know if im making sense at this point. I guess I'm just trying to point out that there could be some very interesting conversations and variations in what could happen this year, and that's before you potentially factor in a club going early for Reid or Travaglia.

Just throwing out hypotheticals but would saints consider trading pick 7 for 11 & 20?

Or is 7 & 8 too valuable for what you guys want this draft?

Not 7, but I'm sure 8, F1 & 32 would be on the table for something amazing in return. It would probably be live and would definitely depend on who is available at our pick.

 

[austinnn]

I think Lalor or FOS give great flexibility early on with forward half capability. Could easily see them being able to integrate them at AFL level.

Also, because they are the better talent than Tauru / Armstrong.

Again, echo chamber stuff. All our posted thoughts on the matter have assumed North (or someone) go tall because it's in Saints best interest.

I'm here to question that, and I think rightfully so in planning for every circumstance and challenging status quo.

Surely it's in North's best interest to get best available and sort out their key positions. So far they've got Comben, Larkey and a bunch of GOPs and maybes at either end. Whereas they have plenty of top shelf mids. So I'm assuming they'll pick the best tall in the draft and one of the many more than capable mids floating around at the pick the Tigers them with their 6.

Maybe they keep the 2, get another gun mid and take their chances at their next pick - which is at the start of the 4th rd (62) - with a forward, but I don't see it.

 

[austinnn]

We all whinge and moan about other clubs getting leg ups for father sons etc, but how lucky were we grabbing Caminiti a couple of seasons ago for zip. If we hadn't of found Hammer we would be having to give up an early pick hunting for a key tall etc, last year or this. Then we collected Windhager, Owens, McLennan as NGA's and are looking at another possible 3 players this year.

There is no doubt with a more professional admin/club our luck is changing.

I think we would have pulled the trigger on Ben King, he'll be almost surplus to requirements soon with all the Suns firepower up front, although the Coleman medal ranking would have put his value up a lot.

I'm stoked we found Hammer, will be a cult hero for years with such infectious enthusiasm!

 

[DGontheQT]

Melbourne only have picks 5 & 9 this year and they traded-out their first next year to get pick 9.

They cannot trade-up. They have no draft capital.


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It was said on the radio that Melbourne like Smillie and Shanahan when talking about them taking Allen before the WA clubs. Seems odd though where Smillie is concerned.

 

[stfan]

A big question with that scenario is why on earth would North Melbourne take another mid when they need to fix the key positions?

Well North could trade 2 for the Tigers 10 and 11 to pick up the two key position players they need.

Tigers then have picks 1, 2 and 6 to build an awesome future midfield. And still have 18, 20, 23 and 24 to balance out their list.

 

[stfan]

This is spot on IMO. Twomey's phantom had Patty at 1 but his rankings had Tracc. At 1. https://www.afl.com.au/news/443857/phantom-draft-form-guide-november-update

I am unaware of any expert ranking Paddy at 1 (as opposed to having him in the phantom at 1) though it was a long time ago. Would be interested in seeing any evidence to the contrary.

I spoke to one of the Saints key draft people a few days out and remember being floored when he said Petracca wasn't a lock. I wasn't a draft watcher. I had no expertise. I was floored bc Petracca was the experts' consensus best player.

Twomey's final draft order is very much coloured by where he believes clubs will draft a player, rather than being his true ranking of players.

He gets very good mail from the clubs.

 

[Ads734]

I think he really we are good at recruiting quality depth players compared to say Carlton whose bottom 8 our trash.

We know we need more game changers/stars

I think

NAS and king are at that level atm.

For me it’s two pronged.

How much can Wilson and Pou develop. Personally I see them both with essentially limitless potential. I still think we underate a) recruiting of Wilson
B)quality of his first year

C) his cieling.

Personally I see him as a better at the same age version of Msx Holmes.

Pou , well everyone knows what I think.

Then when I look at potential stars in the draft

I’m seeing
Smilie, ried and Lalor. Grab one and now our core of genuine A+ talent starts to really build.

 

[SteeleSaints]

This kid never gets mentioned in draft chats - he was the All Australian U18 CHB and marks everything that goes near him, but I bet not many have heard of Clancy Dennis 195cm key defender out of Claremont WA. Should be a late draft option worth remembering.

Clancy Dennis Draft Profile

Claremont key defender Clancy Dennis has been a quiet achiever in 2024, claiming All-Australian honours for his resolute state championships.

central.rookieme.com

 

[TheJackal]

This kid never gets mentioned in draft chats - he was the All Australian U18 CHB and marks everything that goes near him, but I bet not many have heard of Clancy Dennis 195cm key defender out of Claremont WA. Should be a late draft option worth remembering.

Clancy Dennis Draft Profile

Claremont key defender Clancy Dennis has been a quiet achiever in 2024, claiming All-Australian honours for his resolute state championships.

central.rookieme.com

Is he still interested in playing footy?

Last I heard was he's gone to Queensland droving and we don't know where he are.

 

[Significant]

Don’t be surprised if Melbourne try to trade up the draft

I heard a player manager talking about it yesterday

This is juicy, and may be in North's best interest to get in front of Richmond at 6 if they are going to go tall, but a few issues.

1. North don't have another Pick to give back until 62 this draft.

2. Doubt Dees want to push those back into future drafts given the strength of this one.

It really looks like Richmond or bust unfortunately.

 

[MOLTEN GANGLANDS]

This kid never gets mentioned in draft chats - he was the All Australian U18 CHB and marks everything that goes near him, but I bet not many have heard of Clancy Dennis 195cm key defender out of Claremont WA. Should be a late draft option worth remembering.

Clancy Dennis Draft Profile

Claremont key defender Clancy Dennis has been a quiet achiever in 2024, claiming All-Australian honours for his resolute state championships.

central.rookieme.com

why does the music sound like he died?