2024 Draft Thread.

[Mat Mann]

Draft Period, November 20–21

• Round 1 of the National Draft: Wednesday, November 20
• Round 2–end of the National Draft: Thursday, November 21
• Rookie Promotions: Thursday, November 21, after the National Draft
• Delisted Free Agency Period (3): Thursday, November 21, after the National Draft
• List Lodgement 3*: Friday, November 22, 10am (optional; required for those participating in the PSD)
• Pre-Season Draft: Friday, November 22, 3pm
• Rookie Draft: Friday, November 22, 3.20pm

 

[Tommy Wigs]

This is spot on IMO. Twomey's phantom had Patty at 1 but his rankings had Tracc. At 1. https://www.afl.com.au/news/443857/phantom-draft-form-guide-november-update

I am unaware of any expert ranking Paddy at 1 (as opposed to having him in the phantom at 1) though it was a long time ago. Would be interested in seeing any evidence to the contrary.

I spoke to one of the Saints key draft people a few days out and remember being floored when he said Petracca wasn't a lock. I wasn't a draft watcher. I had no expertise. I was floored bc Petracca was the experts' consensus best player.

I think it took a while for Petracca to become consensus 1, but I remember Saints fans (and me) were kicking the cat when McClure came out with the whisper that we would take McCartin. He said that perhaps 36 hours before the draft IIRC. We had all expected Petracca until that time.

 

[Joffaboy]

We all whinge and moan about other clubs getting leg ups for father sons etc, but how lucky were we grabbing Caminiti a couple of seasons ago for zip. If we hadn't of found Hammer we would be having to give up an early pick hunting for a key tall etc, last year or this. Then we collected Windhager, Owens, McLennan as NGA's and are looking at another possible 3 players this year.

There is no doubt with a more professional admin/club our luck is changing.

Every single club had the chance to pick up Caminiti.
No leg up, good canny recruiting, like Sharman, like Wilkie.

As for NGA's. The only top ten of our we couldn't pick up, could have used crap picks, and still picked up Pou.

There is no equating the legupd the booster clubs get year after year after year, or the finals teams get like Brisbane, Bulldogs, Collingwood and now Carlton.

I can't work.out of your post is just coping or gaslighting.


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[Tommy Wigs]

They could but they still have to draft a minimum of 2 players. They've already traded out their 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders so would be selecting the second player at the very end of the draft.

Better to pick at 5 and 9 than 2 and 50+.

I’d highly doubt they’d do a straight 2 for 5 and 9. You might be right in that they’d only get the balance through a future, but I suspect there’ll be some real shocks that get to 50+ in this draft.

 

[Remboy]

Either way, there are so many options with Richmond & GWS in the current draft looking like the most likely to get multiple teens picks.

Especially with Richmond looking to push some picks into next year. There’s no way they’ll take 8 picks in the first 24.

 

[Joffaboy]

I don’t think it is the end of the world if we only have one hit from 2022, but I think it puts us behind schedule. Especially when we acknowledge that the drafts of 2025, 2026 and 2027 are probably less likely to afford us with the same opportunities to grab elite talent.

Not impossible, but less likely. That is both realistic and fair.

It’s why I am keen for us to get as many quality picks as possible from this draft and to create list spots if we have to. And it’s why (IMO) the misses from 2022 are important.

We can get these additional picks by splitting pick 8 if the player available to us isn’t a stand-out for what we want, or by bundling future picks to jump up the order while maintaining (as much as is practicable) the strength of our draft hand.

For the record, this is how I see our drafts from 2021, with my personal assessment on whether lads are likely to make it. Others may disagree with my assessments.

On balance, I think we have done very well. But 2022 is the uncertainty. It would a boost if a couple of question marks come up trumps.

2021
NWM - 11
Owens - 33
Windhager - 47
Adams - 51
Rookie - Peris
Rookie - Kyle

2022
Phillipou - 10
Van Es - 31
Hotton - 35
Keeler - 44
Rookie - McLennan (NGA)

2023
Wilson - 18
Collard - 28
Hastie - 33
Garcia - 50
Schoenmaker - 62
PSD - Bonner


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What you forget from 2022 is Caminiti and Stocker. In isolation drafting has been ordinary, but Hammer and Stocker have been bonuses.

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[Tommy Wigs]

It was said on the radio that Melbourne like Smillie and Shanahan when talking about them taking Allen before the WA clubs. Seems odd though where Smillie is concerned.

I think I heard the same thing. Whoever it was unusually forthcoming with info. Could have been playing games, but almost named their top couple at each pick .

But why do you think Smilie is odd?

 

[DGontheQT]

I think I heard the same thing. Whoever it was unusually forthcoming with info. Could have been playing games, but almost named their top couple at each pick .

But why do you think Smilie is odd?

For Melbourne’s midfield mix , and I’d really like them to keep their grubby hands off him.

 

[gringo2011]

First bit really depends on which tall the Dees and North may want, or Richmond for that matter.

Richmond is an interesting one, theres a big group of talls just like theres a big group of mids. Hear me out here... i might start waffling.

Tiges are obviously in the best spot for the best mid of the mid group, pick 1 will do that... but are they in the best spot for the best tall? Not if they want to take 2 of those top mids.

They may be happy enough getting Shanahan, Faull, Whitlocks at 10/11 etc, but they also may absolutely rate Tauru & Armstrong much higher. There's no way don't don't take one or two talls this draft.

So, even with all of their picks, they are in a bit of a spot, North have 2, Dees have 5, Tigers have 6, all in the market for talls at some point. Are the Tiges happy to miss those top 2 talls? They simply cannot take a tall with pick 1 which leaves them stuck at pick 6 (if they want one of those 2 talls).

So onto North, it's assumed 6 and change would go to North for pick 2. We know North love their mids, but the assumption is they'll take a tall by sliding back to 6. I'm not completely convinced as they don't really have many tall mids but that's another conversation... so should North trade down, Richmond now risk missing the tall they like. Getting 2 mids are worth it for me but maybe not for Tigers who may see a better mix for their needs.

Now onto the Dees who have 5 & 9, we have 8, Richmond have the picks to trade with us to sneak in front of the Dees if they go mid at 5. If Dees take Armstong with their 5 and North take Tauru at 6, getting in front of 9 for a tall wont be a thing for Tiges. So does that mean the Dees would need to go tall first like Armstrong at 5? Then a mid like Reid at 9? Is Armstrong & Reid a better outcome than Langford & Shanahan for the Dees? Only they can answer that based on their lists.

Of course these hypotheticals only rely on those 2 talls being rated so far ahead of others - which only the clubs know.

Either way, there are a lot of variations this year that can play out within this top 10 and if it all goes our way, we could end up with 2 of those top mids - which is what I think im manifesting..

I dont know if im making sense at this point. I guess I'm just trying to point out that there could be some very interesting conversations and variations in what could happen this year, and that's before you potentially factor in a club going early for Reid or Travaglia.



Not 7, but I'm sure 8, F1 & 32 would be on the table for something amazing in return. It would probably be live and would definitely depend on who is available at our pick.

Richmond paid up big for Hopper and Taranto and have 2 premium mids if they get fit. Taking bulk mids seems against their needs. I think that's why Lalor appeals. He's more forward mid who impacts in bursts. Jagga or Langford probably fills out their midfield spots. They still have Dow's brother too

 

[Tommy Wigs]

First bit really depends on which tall the Dees and North may want, or Richmond for that matter.

Richmond is an interesting one, theres a big group of talls just like theres a big group of mids. Hear me out here... i might start waffling.

Tiges are obviously in the best spot for the best mid of the mid group, pick 1 will do that... but are they in the best spot for the best tall? Not if they want to take 2 of those top mids.

They may be happy enough getting Shanahan, Faull, Whitlocks at 10/11 etc, but they also may absolutely rate Tauru & Armstrong much higher. There's no way don't don't take one or two talls this draft.

So, even with all of their picks, they are in a bit of a spot, North have 2, Dees have 5, Tigers have 6, all in the market for talls at some point. Are the Tiges happy to miss those top 2 talls? They simply cannot take a tall with pick 1 which leaves them stuck at pick 6 (if they want one of those 2 talls).

So onto North, it's assumed 6 and change would go to North for pick 2. We know North love their mids, but the assumption is they'll take a tall by sliding back to 6. I'm not completely convinced as they don't really have many tall mids but that's another conversation... so should North trade down, Richmond now risk missing the tall they like. Getting 2 mids are worth it for me but maybe not for Tigers who may see a better mix for their needs.

Now onto the Dees who have 5 & 9, we have 8, Richmond have the picks to trade with us to sneak in front of the Dees if they go mid at 5. If Dees take Armstong with their 5 and North take Tauru at 6, getting in front of 9 for a tall wont be a thing for Tiges. So does that mean the Dees would need to go tall first like Armstrong at 5? Then a mid like Reid at 9? Is Armstrong & Reid a better outcome than Langford & Shanahan for the Dees? Only they can answer that based on their lists.

Of course these hypotheticals only rely on those 2 talls being rated so far ahead of others - which only the clubs know.

Either way, there are a lot of variations this year that can play out within this top 10 and if it all goes our way, we could end up with 2 of those top mids - which is what I think im manifesting..

I dont know if im making sense at this point. I guess I'm just trying to point out that there could be some very interesting conversations and variations in what could happen this year, and that's before you potentially factor in a club going early for Reid or Travaglia.



Not 7, but I'm sure 8, F1 & 32 would be on the table for something amazing in return. It would probably be live and would definitely depend on who is available at our pick.

Yep, you are and it’s a good post.

I agree that it would be appear to be in Melbourne’s best interests to hold. They have very little in the way of picks outside of those two for this year and next year. Constantly pulling forward futures will become near impossible with future drafts becoming compromised.

I suspect North will have greater appetite to move back than Richmond forward. It’s really time for North to get some high level talls in. Richmond are likely to be attracted by getting their two favourites in, though your thinking on the other view makes sense.

North quite likely would prefer to trade with Richmond so that they get their pick on top of 6 in this years draft rather than Melb’s F1 which is in a weaker draft and could be between 5 and 15.

 

[beside the seaside]

Thinking about it I reckon Reid and Lindsay would be a fine outcome.

 

[gringo2011]

Every single club had the chance to pick up Caminiti.
No leg up, good canny recruiting, like Sharman, like Wilkie.

As for NGA's. The only top ten of our we couldn't pick up, could have used crap picks, and still picked up Pou.

There is no equating the legupd the booster clubs get year after year after year, or the finals teams get like Brisbane, Bulldogs, Collingwood and now Carlton.

I can't work.out of your post is just coping or gaslighting.


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I think it's pointless getting emotional about the system. You just have to do your best to work with in it. I'm guessing he's doing the swings and roundabouts. We are getting more academy players than most other Melbourne clubs and while we haven't got a Gulden yet we are starting to get advantages.

We have turned the club around in the last few years, making good decisions and structured the footy department properly. That will do more than all the little cherries of luck from FS and academy do. We probably wasted 100 plus players careers because we weren't a serious club for a long time.

This is the most relaxed I've been about our future in about 15 years. It looks like we are set up for a sustained period of competitiveness in the near future and we should start to see it next year with a bit of injury luck and a good draw.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Thinking about it I reckon Reid and Lindsay would be a fine outcome.

If it comes to this l suspect we trade down and try to nab Hynes

 

[gringo2011]

I think he really we are good at recruiting quality depth players compared to say Carlton whose bottom 8 our trash.

We know we need more game changers/stars

I think

NAS and king are at that level atm.

For me it’s two pronged.

How much can Wilson and Pou develop. Personally I see them both with essentially limitless potential. I still think we underate a) recruiting of Wilson
B)quality of his first year

C) his cieling.

Personally I see him as a better at the same age version of Msx Holmes.

Pou , well everyone knows what I think.

Then when I look at potential stars in the draft

I’m seeing
Smilie, ried and Lalor. Grab one and now our core of genuine A+ talent starts to really build.

Nas is heading towards being absolute elite. Max Homes is an excellent player in a good side but see Nas having a much higher ceiling.

 

[BrutThough]

If no team takes Tauru before us, I'd be very happy to trade him with one of our picks.

 

[SteeleSaints]

Every single club had the chance to pick up Caminiti.
No leg up, good canny recruiting, like Sharman, like Wilkie.

As for NGA's. The only top ten of our we couldn't pick up, could have used crap picks, and still picked up Pou.

There is no equating the legupd the booster clubs get year after year after year, or the finals teams get like Brisbane, Bulldogs, Collingwood and now Carlton.

I can't work.out of your post is just coping or gaslighting.


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Only you would see it as gas lighting Joff!

 

[St Neil]

What you forget from 2022 is Caminiti and Stocker. In isolation drafting has been ordinary, but Hammer and Stocker have been bonuses.

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

That is very true. And those 2 players certainly make recruiting from 2022 look better.

If one or two from the main draft of that year develop into senior players then our haul looks much better from 2021 onwards.


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[ScrappyDo]

What you forget from 2022 is Caminiti and Stocker. In isolation drafting has been ordinary, but Hammer and Stocker have been bonuses.

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Hammer was a 2023 acquisition IIRC.
Even so, 2022 has suffered from misfortune more than anything else.

 

[ScrappyDo]

For the record, this is how I see our drafts from 2021, with my personal assessment on whether lads are likely to make it. Others may disagree with my assessments.

On balance, I think we have done very well. But 2022 is the uncertainty. It would a boost if a couple of question marks come up trumps.

2021
NWM - 11
Owens - 33
Windhager - 47
Adams - 51


2022
Phillipou - 10

Hotton - 35
Keeler - 44


2023
Wilson - 18
Collard - 28
Hastie - 33
Garcia - 50
Schoenmaker - 62



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If we're talking about drafting then lets take out the players that weren't taken in the draft, and the 1 (JVE) that has suffered a career ending injury at the age of 18/19yo.

 

[HeavenlySources]

This kid never gets mentioned in draft chats - he was the All Australian U18 CHB and marks everything that goes near him, but I bet not many have heard of Clancy Dennis 195cm key defender out of Claremont WA. Should be a late draft option worth remembering.

Clancy Dennis Draft Profile

Claremont key defender Clancy Dennis has been a quiet achiever in 2024, claiming All-Australian honours for his resolute state championships.

central.rookieme.com

Wow looks good, Clancy Dennis and Adrien Cole would be nice pair of key backs for the future.

 

[SaintSteele9]

I really hope we take Smilie. The only limiting factor with him will be what happens between the ears. If he’s disciplined and gets the most out of himself, he’ll be the most impactful mid in this draft by the end of his career

Have heard from someone who is particularly well placed to pass comment on Smillie - the elite environment will bring the best out of him, leader/captain character. I’m very keen on him

 

[HeavenlySources]

I’m not fussed one bit over winning the last match and sliding a couple of spots in the draft. The players we are discussing that we ‘missed’ are hypothetical scenarios (we don’t even know where they will land) and are obv unproven at AFL level.

The success of our draft will largely come down to how the club develops the players they select. If we picked Bont over Billings there is no guarantee Bont becomes the player he is now. There’s every chance he still becomes a good player but not the player he has become at the Dogs. I look at Billings, the guy had no hope, and by the time he got to Melbourne it was too late to turn around his career. Earlier in the year Pou looked like the second coming of Billings. No confidence and even ducked out of a few contests. But look how RTB and his assistants turned him around. If Pou was drafted during the Cho days every chance he’s a flop. The difference between a RTB led team and a Cho led team is RTB builds resilience where as Cho babies players.

Anyway, the point of my post is I’m not concerned if we get Smillie, Reid, Langford or Lindsay. I reckon they’ll turn out great. The only non-negotiable for me is we need to pick at least one genuine mid from our first two picks.

I agree with you, the players are all unproven at a high level outside a few VFL and champs games, development and environment plays a lot bigger role than we give credit.

However, the main frustration with sliding 2-3 picks down is having greater access to who we want to select. We aren't a club with access hacks like F/S or endless academy selections. So high-end draft picks are highest probability at getting access to the best talent.

We just have to hope clubs above us trip up like Essendon did with Tsatas over Phillipou or Leake over Wilson etc.

Especially since we spent 95% of the year languishing bottom 4-5 of the ladder that pain and suffering should have netted us picks 5 & 6.

Anyway, what's done is done I'll stop beating a dead horse but let's not pretend like it hasn't cost us anything.

 

[dazzledavey36]

It was said on the radio that Melbourne like Smillie and Shanahan when talking about them taking Allen before the WA clubs. Seems odd though where Smillie is concerned.

Which radio mate? Wouldn't mind having a listen myself.

 

[Browny2Carlisle]

Really concerned about Richmond’s second pick. I think we really need to trade up to 2 to guarantee Smillie. North can surely still get tauru at 7/8 and we can set up our midfield perfectly

 

[akaifu]

Really concerned about Richmond’s second pick. I think we really need to trade up to 2 to guarantee Smillie. North can surely still get tauru at 7/8 and we can set up our midfield perfectly

If we trade up it'd be for one of FOS/Lalor, not Smillie

Take 2 and 7 into the draft and pick FOS/Lalor + Smilie/Tauru at 7

I wonder if it'd be possible to use our F1 and F2 to get from 8 to 2 and 7 to 6 bc that'd make things significantly easier

 

[Browny2Carlisle]

If we trade up it'd be for one of FOS/Lalor, not Smillie

Take 2 and 7 into the draft and pick FOS/Lalor + Smilie/Tauru at 7

I wonder if it'd be possible to use our F1 and F2 to get from 8 to 2 and 7 to 6 bc that'd make things significantly easier

Agreed but I’m not rating FOS that highly and Smillie to me looks exactly what we need.
That would be ideal potentially ending with lalor/smillie. Even if we were just able to move up a rung or 2 using future picks can guarantee us a very strong midfield for many years to come.