2024 Draft Thread.

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🎯 Draft Period, November 20–21
  • Round 1 of the National Draft: Wednesday, November 20
  • Round 2–end of the National Draft: Thursday, November 21
  • Rookie Promotions: Thursday, November 21, after the National Draft
  • Delisted Free Agency Period (3): Thursday, November 21, after the National Draft
  • List Lodgement 3*: Friday, November 22, 10am (optional; required for those participating in the PSD)
  • Pre-Season Draft: Friday, November 22, 3pm
  • Rookie Draft: Friday, November 22, 3.20pm
 
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This looks like the most likely draft board before any pick trades.

Richmond - 1Finn O’Sullivan
Brisbane - 2Levi Ashcroft
North Melbourne - 3Harvey Langford
Carlton - 4 Sam Lalor
Adelaide - 5 Sid Draper
Melbourne - 6Jagga Smith
Richmond - 7Murphy Reid
St Kilda - 8Josh Smillie
St Kilda - 9Alix Tauru
Melbourne - 10 Harry Armstrong

Trading 8 + F1 to North for 2 + F2 would net us a second midfield selection of Langford, Lalor, Draper, Jagga, Reid. If we don't it's more than likely we get only 1 mid probably Josh Smillie or Murphy Reid and our selection of the best KPP in the draft.
 

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The argument of we looked better when mids returned from injury is obviously correct, but Steele and Jones...both of whom were our better mids in our run at the end of the season aren't getting any younger, the same goes for Brad Hill & Mason Wood, both of which are our wings. We have Windhager, Pou, and Dow as the next links in the chain, with Wilson and Byrnes following. Pou and Wilson are the likeliest to become A graders or genuine stars. Also more likely to be rotated elsewhere around the ground. That leaves Windy...potentially a very good player, but more of a role type, and Byrnes and Dow...probably more solid without being outstanding types.
Clark played well towards the end there, and brings something different to the table, but he's probably trade bait at some stage, and is injury prone. If we could get an upgrade on his output through youth I'd be happy.
Garcia, too early to tell...but promising.
We need more mids, to both rotate through, but also to give us better punch, once the older crew are gone (2-4 years time)
I think a lot of people are being very generous to Dow.

He's the definition of a list clogger in my eyes.
 
I think a lot of people are being very generous to Dow.

He's the definition of a list clogger in my eyes.
I was trying to be as generous and optimistic as possible.
Dow was injured a bit, and had no proper preseason...but yeah, he was definitely underwhelming when he came in.
 
This looks like the most likely draft board before any pick trades.

Richmond - 1Finn O’Sullivan
Brisbane - 2Levi Ashcroft
North Melbourne - 3Harvey Langford
Carlton - 4Sam Lalor
Adelaide - 5Sid Draper
Melbourne - 6Jagga Smith
Richmond - 7Murphy Reid
St Kilda - 8Josh Smillie
St Kilda - 9Alix Tauru
Melbourne - 10Harry Armstrong

Trading 8 + F1 to North for 2 + F2 would net us a second midfield selection of Langford, Lalor, Draper, Jagga, Reid. If we don't it's more than likely we get only 1 mid probably Josh Smillie or Murphy Reid and our selection of the best KPP in the draft.
Why is it the most likely?
 

Freo delisted Max Knobel (have said they'll Rookie IF another club doesn't poach him).

I would definitely pick him up as a DFA. Wasn't he doing quite well in the WAFL?
 

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Comparing offers and outcomes for pick 2;

Richmond offer sounds like it is 6+18 at best.
StK offer sounds like 8+F1 (6-12) + ???.

Both offers put NM behind Melbourne so 6-8 difference is not relevant if they are looking to draft Tauru. In either scenario they would need to be sure Melbourne will go for the mid first at 5, which I think is likely.

Assuming NM land Tauru with 6/8, this years 18 seems more in line with their strategy than our first next year even though it might be as high as pick 4 so I think they take Richmond's offer as long as Melbourne draft a mid.

NM take Richmond's offer;
1. Lalor - Rich
2. O'Sullivan - Rich
3. Draper - Carl
4. Langford - Adel
5. Smilie - Melb (Think they want a 'big bodied mid' from all reports)
6. Tauru - NM
7. Smith - StK
8. Reid - StK

Option 1 = Smith + Reid

NM take StK's offer; (would only do so with our assurance not to draft Tauru, which make sme think it would be 7+F1 instead but no matter)
1. Lalor - Rich
2. O'Sullivan - StK
3. Draper - Carl
4. Langford - Adel
5. Smilie - Melb
6. Smith - Rich
7. Tauru - NM
8. Reid - StK

Option 2 = O'Sullivan + Reid

Obviously not what is going to happen order wise, but is our F1 worth the difference betwen Smith & O'Sullivan?

Even though I've been a massive advocate for top 5 picks, you'd have to want at least NM's F2 back in our scenario. Think I'd still favour option 2 personally with the odd chance Melbourne like Reid enough to bump us another slider.

Just hoping they trade it either way as NM hold pick 2 is pretty much snake eyes.
 
Isiah winder from South Fremantle would be a great pick up. He won their BandF so he can certainly play. I see an AFL club giving him a go and not regretting it.
 
I haven't noticed that except for about rounds 5 to 12 where things weren't working on many levels. I think it was just a symptom.
Those rounds were a hard watch...the second season in a row where we've had a significant slump.
Personally I think our delivery forward still needs work. We're great at moving the ball until we get to the the half forward line... but goes a bit pear shaped unless we keep momentum, and the mids keep running it in towards goal. When we go to try and hit up longer leads, our kicks are just too easy to pick off.
I think we looked good those last few rounds due to short kicks to short leads within the 50...and the mids running it into goal when they had opportunity.
We won't be able to get away with that all of the time though, which is why the ability to hit up longer leads is important.
Also helps when our forwards move towards the carrier mind you.
All in all though, having skilled players is just good practice in general.
I don't know who those guys are in the draft at our picks, I rely on you guys for that info, but for every two pro's...there seems a con 🤷🏼‍♂️
 
Why is it the most likely?
I've cross referenced a few reliable reports

1) Cal's Oct ranking which I assume has been influenced by club recruiters,
2) The age ranking that was directly influenced by recruiters,
3) best available and then assumed club needs/preference.

To split the difference where needed
4) 'Rumours' about VIC draftees not wanting to go interstate & draftees that support certain club
 
Some pretty ordinary midfields have flags. I'd say that's plenty if they stay fit. Our biggest issue this year was the ridiculous amount of injury to mids. Clark, Dow, Ross, Henry, Jones, Windhager, Crouch, Hall and Hotton all went down. Even Steele played through injury. If you add wings we also lost Wood.

Once we had numbers back we looked a lot more competitive. Dow and Jones both looked very good by the end of the year and Clark was solid and showed hie might be done yet too.
No one’s talking about Max Hall but I’m quietly confident he can make a difference
 
Those rounds were a hard watch...the second season in a row where we've had a significant slump.
Personally I think our delivery forward still needs work. We're great at moving the ball until we get to the the half forward line... but goes a bit pear shaped unless we keep momentum, and the mids keep running it in towards goal. When we go to try and hit up longer leads, our kicks are just too easy to pick off.
I think we looked good those last few rounds due to short kicks to short leads within the 50...and the mids running it into goal when they had opportunity.
We won't be able to get away with that all of the time though, which is why the ability to hit up longer leads is important.
Also helps when our forwards move towards the carrier mind you.
All in all though, having skilled players is just good practice in general.
I don't know who those guys are in the draft at our picks, I rely on you guys for that info, but for every two pro's...there seems a con 🤷🏼‍♂️
Liam Henry’s speed and creativity forward of centre was really missed!
 
Comparing offers and outcomes for pick 2;

Richmond offer sounds like it is 6+18 at best.
StK offer sounds like 8+F1 (6-12) + ???.

Both offers put NM behind Melbourne so 6-8 difference is not relevant if they are looking to draft Tauru. In either scenario they would need to be sure Melbourne will go for the mid first at 5, which I think is likely.

Assuming NM land Tauru with 6/8, this years 18 seems more in line with their strategy than our first next year even though it might be as high as pick 4 so I think they take Richmond's offer as long as Melbourne draft a mid.

NM take Richmond's offer;
1. Lalor - Rich
2. O'Sullivan - Rich
3. Draper - Carl
4. Langford - Adel
5. Smilie - Melb (Think they want a 'big bodied mid' from all reports)
6. Tauru - NM
7. Smith - StK
8. Reid - StK

Option 1 = Smith + Reid

NM take StK's offer; (would only do so with our assurance not to draft Tauru, which make sme think it would be 7+F1 instead but no matter)
1. Lalor - Rich
2. O'Sullivan - StK
3. Draper - Carl
4. Langford - Adel
5. Smilie - Melb
6. Smith - Rich
7. Tauru - NM
8. Reid - StK

Option 2 = O'Sullivan + Reid

Obviously not what is going to happen order wise, but is our F1 worth the difference betwen Smith & O'Sullivan?

Even though I've been a massive advocate for top 5 picks, you'd have to want at least NM's F2 back in our scenario. Think I'd still favour option 2 personally with the odd chance Melbourne like Reid enough to bump us another slider.

Just hoping they trade it either way as NM hold pick 2 is pretty much snake eyes.
I’ll have a crack:

1. Richmond - Lalor
2. Richmond - O’Sullivan
3. Carlton - Smith
4. Adelaide - Draper
5. Melbourne - Langford
6. North - Tauru
7. St. Kilda - Smillie
8. St. Kilda - Travaglia
9. Melbourne - Armstrong
 

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