Rumour 2024 Hypothetical trade and FA Thread

[Strapping Young Lad]

2024 Picks



2025 Picks

 

[butlers hawks]

This sniping is getting old real quick, can we go back to the players?

The last few days in here is how I picture Christian Petracca sees Demon team meetings

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Ned Ryerson I found another spelling mistake, over to you mate do your thing....

Nah - I like FB.

 

[MrPremiership]

Isn't Barrass top 5 for losses in 1-on-1 contests? Was a stat up on Footy Classified or On the Couch last week

He is also top 5 for marks in 1-on-1.

So he either will win the contest with a mark, or get out-marked himself. He's a win or lose. Doesn't half many.

Not sure that's ideal, but seems to be against convention that he's an elite defender

 

[TylerDurden]

I reckon the deal is already agreed upon in principle. The rest is hot air.

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

Isn't Barrass top 5 for losses in 1-on-1 contests? Was a stat up on Footy Classified or On the Couch last week

He is also top 5 for marks in 1-on-1.

So he either will win the contest with a mark, or get out-marked himself. He's a win or lose. Doesn't half many.

Not sure that's ideal, but seems to be against convention that he's an elite defender

It's a bad stat if you see how it's defined. If player has a 5m lead and the defender (even if it's not his man) tried to close the gap and just arrived late, I'm pretty sure that's counted as a 1v1 loss. Or something similar at least.

Pair that with WCEs terrible transition defence and it's easy to see why.

Frost had a putrid one last year and has been awesome this year. He's improved but that defensive prowess didn't appear over the off-season at 30 years old

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Never said that, maybe go back and have another read.

Ok

Blanck has shown middling results as a backman

Would he get a game ahead of Frost currently?

 

[Steven Tyler]

Isn't Barrass top 5 for losses in 1-on-1 contests? Was a stat up on Footy Classified or On the Couch last week

He is also top 5 for marks in 1-on-1.

So he either will win the contest with a mark, or get out-marked himself. He's a win or lose. Doesn't half many.

Not sure that's ideal, but seems to be against convention that he's an elite defender

Prime Chris Langford and Chris Mew would struggle if they were at the Eagles

 

[OnTheRocks]

This is the thing. In our team, he's going to hopefully have so little volume that it'll help his body, his numbers and his overall game.

I luv your pisstakes
Did make me smile, thx GG

 

[KermitJagger]

It's a bad stat if you see how it's defined. If player has a 5m lead and the defender (even if it's not his man) tried to close the gap and just arrived late, I'm pretty sure that's counted as a 1v1 loss. Or something similar at least.

Pair that with WCEs terrible transition defence and it's easy to see why.

Frost had a putrid one last year and has been awesome this year. He's improved but that defensive prowess didn't appear over the off-season at 30 years old

Yeah you're 100% right.

If you give up on a lead you're fine, no 1:1 registered, no loss registered. So as a West Coast player Barrass has relatively few 1:1s as they normally double team, and when he invariably does have one it's because he's trying to contest from a mile away because West Coast's midfield is slow as a wet week and they struggle to defend on transition.

Even McGovern is losing 27% of his 1:1s there.

Edit: to add to that, in total numbers Barrass has lost 11 one on ones for the season. That's less than one a game.

 

[MrPremiership]

It's a bad stat if you see how it's defined. If player has a 5m lead and the defender (even if it's not his man) tried to close the gap and just arrived late, I'm pretty sure that's counted as a 1v1 loss. Or something similar at least.

Pair that with WCEs terrible transition defence and it's easy to see why.

Frost had a putrid one last year and has been awesome this year. He's improved but that defensive prowess didn't appear over the off-season at 30 years old

not sure it's that loose

Glossary – AFL – Champion Data

www.championdata.com

One-On-One Contest: A 50-50 contest that occurs after a kick, and involves only two players – a target player and a defender. Each player must have a reasonable chance to win the ball in order for a one-on-one to be recorded. Winning and losing percentages refer to how often a player wins the ball or concedes a possession to his opponent. A neutral result is recorded when the ball is spoiled or results in a stoppage.

 

[burger09]

Defenders who mark the ball are worth their weight in gold.

Not only do they stop the opposition from marking it, they take crumbling forwards out of the game as well.

Instant pressure relief valve.

 

[MrPremiership]

Key defenders sorted by 1on1 contest loss percentage

 

[KermitJagger]

not sure it's that loose

Glossary – AFL – Champion Data

www.championdata.com

One-On-One Contest: A 50-50 contest that occurs after a kick, and involves only two players – a target player and a defender. Each player must have a reasonable chance to win the ball in order for a one-on-one to be recorded. Winning and losing percentages refer to how often a player wins the ball or concedes a possession to his opponent. A neutral result is recorded when the ball is spoiled or results in a stoppage.

I've gone back and looked at the AFL replays on the app for what constitutes a 1:1 loss. You'd be surprised, I can't even give you a straight answer on what "reasonable chance to win" means given that I've seen what looked like direct contests not be registered.

To reiterate a point from above, Barrass has lost 11 contested defensive 1:1s this season. The percentage looks far worse than the actual raw numbers.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Defenders who mark the ball are worth their weight in gold.

Not only do they stop the opposition from marking it, they take crumbling forwards out of the game as well.

Instant pressure relief valve.

Yep, and that's why Scrimshaw, Sicily and Weddle are encouraged to back themselves in the air.

 

[TONYC3163]

Defenders who mark the ball are worth their weight in gold.

Not only do they stop the opposition from marking it, they take crumbling forwards out of the game as well.

Instant pressure relief valve.

Yep, in the threepeat years, generally Lake would mark, where Frawley mostly punched the ball, when, at times, the mark was on.
Used to be frustrating.

 

[MrPremiership]

Defenders who mark the ball are worth their weight in gold.

Not only do they stop the opposition from marking it, they take crumbling forwards out of the game as well.

Instant pressure relief valve.

Agree. Huge asset.

But needs to be balanced with the disadvantage of getting outmarked, because that's set shots on goal against.
Always was of the view Barrass was a gun defender, so the stats I saw the other night were confusing.

 

[Lickmesocks]

Yep, in the threepeat years, generally Lake would mark, where Frawley mostly punched the ball, when, at times, the mark was on.
Used to be frustrating.

How good was Lake!!!! Didn’t matter who we are playing or how big the opponent was he didn’t take a backward step ever and made everyone around him walk taller.

Wish we had him for the other 10 years he was playing at the Dogs. ️

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

not sure it's that loose

Glossary – AFL – Champion Data

www.championdata.com

One-On-One Contest: A 50-50 contest that occurs after a kick, and involves only two players – a target player and a defender. Each player must have a reasonable chance to win the ball in order for a one-on-one to be recorded. Winning and losing percentages refer to how often a player wins the ball or concedes a possession to his opponent. A neutral result is recorded when the ball is spoiled or results in a stoppage.

Yeah point is it's subjective, makes it a weird stat - also really low volume which makes volatility a factor from year to year

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Wish we had him for the other 10 years he was playing at the Dogs. ️

Ryan Schoenmakers likes this post.

 

[cryptor]

Key defenders sorted by 1on1 contest loss percentage
View attachment 2080765

The top 6 here are all from teams who concede the most scores from turnovers and stoppages. Concede more I50's and allow their opposition the most uncontested use of the ball.

They might be 1v1's but I bet a lot of them are with the ball going to the advantage of the forward. Also 1.8 Def 1v1 per game isn't very many. That's like one def 1v1 every second game that he's clearly lost.

Barrass is 2nd in the league for intercept marks taken by key defenders. 3.6/game. Scrimshaw and Sicily go at 2.5 and 2.4.

 

[Tall poppy Syndrome]

not sure it's that loose

Glossary – AFL – Champion Data

www.championdata.com

One-On-One Contest: A 50-50 contest that occurs after a kick, and involves only two players – a target player and a defender. Each player must have a reasonable chance to win the ball in order for a one-on-one to be recorded. Winning and losing percentages refer to how often a player wins the ball or concedes a possession to his opponent. A neutral result is recorded when the ball is spoiled or results in a stoppage.

One on One:

A hidden Hall and Oates gem, whose first four lines were written to describe Tom Barrass’s current frustrations at West Coast:

I’m tired of playing on the team
It seems I don’t get time out anymore
What a change (to the Hawks would be) if we set the pace face to face
No one even trying to score oh (reflecting West Coast as second worst in the comp for offence)

When the Eagles offered new contract terms Barrass said I can’t go for that. And the relationship’s only got worse since.

 

[butlers hawks]

Key defenders sorted by 1on1 contest loss percentage
View attachment 2080765

to put this into perspective

In the 3 premiership years Brian Lake went 28.4, 15.8 and 34.4 and Josh Gibson was 20.6, 19.7 and 20.8

In his premiership year James Frawley went 20.7

The issue with comparing these though is the number of 1v1 contests vary

Barrass this year is registering 1.7, in 2013 Brian Lake had 4.9 and Josh Gibson had 4.3, in 2014 Lake had 3.5 and Josh Gibson had 3.6 and in 2015 Lake had 2.8, Gibson 2.1 and Frawley 1.6

As teams have developed ways to get a 3rd man over these direct 1v1 should fall away

I am firmly in the camp of give the pick up

 

[mustang]

I reckon the deal is already agreed upon in principle. The rest is hot air.

Tyler ok so it looks like his coming, let's say Blanck has a killer pre season and starts in the pre season games killing it, as who knew all the kids would play so well this year and come of age, do we still play Barrass in the senior side with what we paid to get him even if Blanck is out performing him, I know it all hypothetical but it could happen.

 

[hawkinoz]

Agree. Huge asset.

But needs to be balanced with the disadvantage of getting outmarked, because that's set shots on goal against.
Always was of the view Barrass was a gun defender, so the stats I saw the other night were confusing.

We saw Weddle learn the lessons where he elected to punch against Blues when he knew the KPF was likely behind him.

Weddle got out marked or have the ball snatched off him twice by Hogan in the game against GWS. He seemed crushed both times it happened.

 

[mustang]

How good was Lake!!!! Didn’t matter who we are playing or how big the opponent was he didn’t take a backward step ever and made everyone around him walk taller.

Wish we had him for the other 10 years he was playing at the Dogs. ️

Who do you think the modern day Lake is?