Rumour 2024 Hypothetical trade and FA Thread

[VandoHawk]

I'm sure it's just media beat up. They can't be that deluded about price. F1 and F2 for a quality contracted player, who is 29 and has chronic back problems seems right.

Would just walk away if they are actually demanding two firsts. Apologise to Tom at the state of his club, and watch them finish perpetually in the 10-14 range while they piss away Reid.

 

[Fastback]

Agreed. Whilst it would be nice to get Barras, if they are adamant on 2 x firsts. We simply walk away.

Which you could argue would hurt WC more in the long run. They really need picks to help reduce their age profile with quality young players.

If they stick with Barras, they have McGovern and Barras who will not be a part of their next premiership side, holding both KPD spots and not allowing the next wave of KPD play senior footy. This wouldn't be so bad if it was just 1 helping lead younger players. But it isn't, it's both KPD spots.

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Yes - they'll also have a player that has mentally checked out to a degree and who will have to endure a 4th strait season in the bottom 4 - terrible scenario.
At least they'll have Owies to dull the pain.

 

[kazzooka]

Isn't Owies out of contract anyway? Just walk him to the PSD

Out of contract and wasn't offered a contract. was set to be a delisted free agent.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

If WCE hold firm on two first rounders (personally think it's a media beat up) then I look forward to us having two picks next year as well as a couple of future picks with multiple year pick trading coming into play. Win/win for us. Media can do what it likes - it won't have been us that stymied the Barrass trade if West Coast stand firm on two first rounders.

 

[cryptor]

Seems the value of players on the chopping block for delisting have far greater value than you'd think.

Reckon we could trade Carlton's F1 + DGB + Easy to Carlton for pick 3?

 

[fairdinks]

getting anxious now reading the media beat up.

If we give more than 1 first for Barrass, i think we will regret it. Perhaps add that F2 with a F3 coming back as others suggest, but that is it.

I'm happy to use all our future pick stash on other deals TBH.

I don't have a good feeling on Barrass, whether it be age or injury, so call me paranoid.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Out of contract and wasn't offered a contract. was set to be a delisted free agent.

That's why you get him for steak knives in a trade though. Then you don't have to worry about him being a free agent in future. Much like us with Mass last year - I think you'll find clubs getting what they want using worthless picks in trades to avoid the risk of future free agency issues.

 

[Come back Cyril]

They actually haven’t. Forget Owies who technically was looked at as a DFA by them.

They’ve given up 12, 14 and F2nd for pick 3. In a draft where there are no standouts. If they don’t nail that pick they’ve pretty much traded out of 2 drafts

They have two FS next year they'd expect to be early picks. Next years picks were useless to them.

 

[TONYC3163]

If WCE hold firm on two first rounders (personally think it's a media beat up) then I look forward to us having two picks next year as well as a couple of future picks with multiple year pick trading coming into play. Win/win for us. Media can do what it likes - it won't have been us that stymied the Barrass trade if West Coast stand firm on two first rounders.

This, I think it will be done for F1 & F2, but if they stick to 2xF1, then yes, sorry Tom, we tried our best. It will be WC that were unreasonable.
I don’t think WC want to keep him instead of F1 & F2.

 

[SSSSSS]

That's why you get him for steak knives in a trade though. Then you don't have to worry about him being a free agent in future. Much like us with Mass last year - I think you'll find clubs getting what they want using worthless picks in trades to avoid the risk of future free agency issues.

Owies is a 27 year old (will be 28 come round 1) very average small forward who has been given the flick by a club screaming out for a small forward.

Any compensation that his club is likely to receive in the future from being a free agent is likely to be neglible.

It is complete madness that securing Owies is the kingmaker in this deal.

 

[ShoveYourCOLA]

West Coast board (understandably) in full blown meltdown

 

[H00t]

2F1’s for Barrass and 12.

If eagles throw in their F1 we will be so generous as to throw in DGB. Seeing as players about to be delisted have their value triple.

 

[VandoHawk]

West Coast board (understandably) in full blown meltdown

That will be us if we give two firsts for Barrass.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

That will be us if we give two firsts for Barrass.

We could give 3 firsts and it wouldn’t be as bad

 

[kazzooka]

West Coast don't need that many kids though - they need established bodies. They turned a 9 point pick slide into two best 22 players. It's not the best trade ever but it's certainly not the worst.

It's about what they could have done though.

Owies could have been free.

Keep pick 3.

Barrass and F3 for 14 and F2

14 for Baker.

So instead of last week being able end up with

3 + Baker + F2 + Owies for Barrass + F3

they have 12 + Baker + Owies

 

[palmomagpie]

That will be us if we give two firsts for Barrass.

100% think the AFL is holding this off until close of business tomorrow as it's the biggest media story of the period. Takes the pressure off the other clubs that have nominated players and not got it done (Rioli to GCS, Luko to PA, Smith to Gee) too

 

[Come back Cyril]

I'm sure it's just media beat up. They can't be that deluded about price. F1 and F2 for a quality contracted player, who is 29 and has chronic back problems seems right.

Would just walk away if they are actually demanding two firsts. Apologise to Tom at the state of his club, and watch them finish perpetually in the 10-14 range while they piss away Reid.

With 2 generational talents like Liam Baker and Matt Owies now in their line up, perhaps they no longer need to rebuild?

 

[VandoHawk]

Let's be generous given their attitude today. F1, F2 and Denver for Barrass and F3.

 

[Lickmesocks]

??? Why bring up a Free Agent like it's a good trade deal?

We would be picking up Barrass for 2 draft picks. Just Barrass.

Imagine if we picked up Battle, Perryman, Cumming, Jack Graham for no picks. what great trading.

Trying to make a trade for 1 player look better by including a free agent signing as a total package is disingenuous. As is comparing an entire trade period instead of looking at the individual deals and their fairness.

I was stating what the net outcome could look like at the end of tomorrow.

In Battle and Barrass
Out future first pick and future second pick

If this is disingenuous then we are on a different page.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Owies is a 27 year old (will be 28 come round 1) very average small forward who has been given the flick by a club screaming out for a small forward.

Any compensation that his club is likely to receive in the future from being a free agent is likely to be neglible.

It is complete madness that securing Owies is the kingmaker in this deal.

Not sure where I said it was a kingmaker - I actively referred to him as being steak knives. I didn't mention anything about compensation either. I was just saying I think you will find if a club actually wants a player now they might be trading nothing picks for them instead of waiting for the DFA option to avoid free agency being an issue - i.e. having the power of trading the player. When you look at the issue we are going to have every time Dylan Moore comes out of contract I can see more clubs not waiting for the DFA option. Maybe not the case with Owies - but I feel it will become more common.

 

[Lickmesocks]

Carlton have given up
Future first
Future second
Matt Owies

to move down 9 spots in this years draft.

They must have the next Chris Judd lined up.

 

[Sirlemsip]

Whilst we clearly have an agreement with Barrass to try and get him to the club, at the end of the day we shouldn't overpay just to make that happen.

Barrass was the one that signed the long-term deal with WC originally. We can't force WC to just release him from that.

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

I was stating what the net outcome could look like at the end of tomorrow.

In Battle and Barrass
Out future first pick and future second pick

If this is disingenuous then we are on a different page.

So signing a free agent means to need to be overly generous in other dealings? Nonsense

 

[Come back Cyril]

Take the counterfactual of Barrass for F1 and F2 straight up. They get Baker and the F2 in both scenarios.

Original trade they are left with
This year: pick 3
Next year:

New trade they have
This year: pick 12, Owies (not worth much given circumstances)
Next year: F1 (Carlton or Hawthorn), F3 (their own)

I don't think that's objectively worse. It's hard to say.

Thanks. This is useful analysis.

I still think pick 12 and approx 14 next year is objectively worse than pick 3 this year. I really hope WC don't share my opinion because it would mean that there was no collaboration on the Carlton Hawks pick swaps, which I had assumed there was.

For the first time in this draft period, I'm not convinced the Barrass trade gets done (or done for a palatable price). But I'm in the F1 and F2 being absolute maximum value I'd be willing to pay camp (TB would be great but I think our backline hold up well without him, and I love the speed and skills we have with our slightly undersized talls).

 

[SSSSSS]

Not sure where I said it was a kingmaker - I actively referred to him as being steak knives. I didn't mention anything about compensation either. I was just saying I think you will find if a club actually wants a player now they might be trading nothing picks for them instead of waiting for the DFA option to avoid free agency being an issue - i.e. having the power of trading the player. When you look at the issue we are going to have every time Dylan Moore comes out of contract I can see more clubs not waiting for the DFA option. Maybe not the case with Owies - but I feel it will become more common.

Pick 3 for 12 and 14 was knocked back only a few days ago by the Eagles.

For some reason the brains trust decided that once Owies was included in the calculations (a player that they could select as a DFA) that they can green light the deal.

And they still gave up some late picks for him.

I do agree though that teams going forward will be happy to trade junk picks for players. I just can't wrap my head around the deal that the Eagles have made. Maybe it's going to look great in hindsight but it's looking like an all time stinker initially.