List Mgmt. 2024 List Management thread - Trade Targets Part 2

[Andyy]

Pick sliding for FA compo absolutely affects the player taken, pick sliding for FS/Academy bid matching doesn’t really as no one is considering Ashcroft, Lombard, Kako or Marshal as an option to take as they all know the club will match (possibly not if someone goes Kako before the bombers first pick) but you get what I’m saying. Pick 9 is still the 9th best player on the open market regardless of if they get taken at 10,11 or 13

I guess we see this differently, but there's more a pick than the open market options. They are bargaining chips.

Imagine, for example, being Brisbane and having a phone call to Richmond about whether or not they'll need to match a #1 bid? As opposed to matching a bid from a club with #5?

What if Brisbane needs capital to match a #1 bid and someone else is offering to trade them a point surplus, but that surplus diminishes due to 2-3 slides beforehand?

I'm confident these conversations happen and there's more to it that '9th best player on the open market'. Lots of variables I suspect most clubs would look at 9+10 this year and say 'well that's basically 11+12 at least'.

Dylan Shiel is the best one. AA and under contract. Was trending towards being the best player in the league if you can remember that far back, bursting out of packs - before his injuries.

Went for pick #9 and a future first in return for Shiel and a future second round pick.

So that would be #9 and F1 from Freo for Bolton and Richmond's future 2nd, or third given Richmond's second isn't projecting to be much later than Fremantle's future first.

Fair post.

My only feedback would be that I think over recent years we are seeing clubs show less value in picks and more value in established players. He was traded 6 years ago. Do you think that deal would satisfy GWS in today's climate? I'm not convinced.

 

[Andyy]

Jacob Hopper was another player traded under contract.

Hopper and #53, #63 for Future 1st and #31

Yep, we got reamed on that one.

He's a very different player to Bolton, much less coveted IMO, and can't stay on the park. He was also a partial salary dump and GWS knew his knee was cactus.

Worst trade we've done in years

 

[Spirit Level]

Hear me out.....

Is there any chance that NOD could develop into the burst mid that we wanted in Warner, and can therefore use the capital elsewhere?

 

[Joao]

Hear me out.....

Is there any chance that NOD could develop into the burst mid that we wanted in Warner, and can therefore use the capital elsewhere?

Probably not the ceiling, but yes, he could add a point of difference.

Bolton is the obvious one, he's better than handy in the middle.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Pick sliding for FA compo absolutely affects the player taken, pick sliding for FS/Academy bid matching doesn’t really as no one is considering Ashcroft, Lombard, Kako or Marshal as an option to take as they all know the club will match (possibly not if someone goes Kako before the bombers first pick) but you get what I’m saying. Pick 9 is still the 9th best player on the open market regardless of if they get taken at 10,11 or 13

I disagree on this slightly, just not for this draft. You take into account who will be available at the pick prior to trading, particularly top picks. If the top 10 for one year is all Academy or F/S then pick 1 has a lot less value than normal because of the talent at the pick.

On.the night though, it doesn't matter where bids come. It's a bit of an odd one but only way I can get my head around it making sense.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Hear me out.....

Is there any chance that NOD could develop into the burst mid that we wanted in Warner, and can therefore use the capital elsewhere?

The hill I will die on and why I won't give up on it is that we are far far better off with Bolton/Pickett then Bolton/Warner

 

[mattis117]

Wish we could completely **** up a pick as high as Luko over and over again and it not be a big deal. Imagine that.

What the hell are you talking about? They've never made finals!

 

[Spirit Level]

The hill I will die on and why I won't give up on it is that we are far far better off with Bolton/Pickett then Bolton/Warner

Yeah this is where I'm at, we also have Ras and Simpson rising through the ranks and way more glaring list needs than the midfield.

I'm happy to wait till next year when he's OOC and see how NOD, Simpson and Ras develop.

Remember we were all keen on McDonald then Treacy had a breakout year and we didn't need him anymore allowing us to spend capital elsewhere, who's to say the same thing won't happen next year with NOD.

 

[pK75]

I guess we see this differently, but there's more a pick than the open market options. They are bargaining chips.

Imagine, for example, being Brisbane and having a phone call to Richmond about whether or not they'll need to match a #1 bid? As opposed to matching a bid from a club with #5?

What if Brisbane needs capital to match a #1 bid and someone else is offering to trade them a point surplus, but that surplus diminishes due to 2-3 slides beforehand?

I'm confident these conversations happen and there's more to it that '9th best player on the open market'. Lots of variables I suspect most clubs would look at 9+10 this year and say 'well that's basically 11+12 at least'.




Fair post.

My only feedback would be that I think over recent years we are seeing clubs show less value in picks and more value in established players. He was traded 6 years ago. Do you think that deal would satisfy GWS in today's climate? I'm not convinced.

Not sure you understand how point sliding works? If the Bid comes at pick 1, no picks have moved yet!
If Ascroft is still the first player bid on at 5, again no picks have moved yet, 9 is still 9 until the bid is matched.

 

[FreoRicci]

Take this with a grain of salt..

Out of all the small forwards, that is who we chose?
He’s not even that much better than Schulz.
Hope isn’t true

 

[Joao]

Out of all the small forwards, that is who we chose?
He’s not even that much better than Schulz.
Hope isn’t true

He's not better than Schultz at all, would take Shoota easily.

 

[Docker82]

What the hell are you talking about? They've never made finals!

I think it's pretty obvious. They still have two ten KPFs on their list - If we ****ed up that pick we'd be waiting a generation for another opportunity.

Honestly give the administration of any other club in the comp the concessions Gold Coast have got and give them Hardwick as coach and they'd be setting themselves up for a Hawthorn/Richmond style dynasty by now.

As things stand I'm not convinced they'll ever make finals - no soul, players don't play for the club.

 

[freo84]

Dan Houston

5

Dan Houston

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

11.8

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.0

5star

MG

289.2

4star

D

17.6

4star

K

11.6

4star

HB

6.0

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.4

4star

MG

319.9

5star

D

16.6

4star

K

12.4

5star

HB

4.2

4star

M

7.0

5star

T

2.6

4star

MG

279.8

5star

requested a trade to Victoria after saying he was staying....

 

[Suma Says]

Something I dont see mentioned enough is the strength of this draft needs to be factored in to any package we potentially give up for Bolton/Pickett/Warner.

Picks 9, 10, 16 and even 27 hold greater value in this draft than in any normal draft.

Theres a reason all teams are desperate to get more first rounders this year. Why Carlton would apparently rather pass on Houston than give up pick 11.

This strength of draft, combined with the fact other teams are so actively hunting for more first round picks increases the value of our picks

 

[s_wd6]

Dan Houston requested a trade to Victoria after saying he was staying....

Your turn now Kozzie

 

[Taylor]

Dan Houston requested a trade to Victoria after saying he was staying....

Would you prefer:

He wants to go to Melbourne and we offer them picks for Pickett to make it happen,

He wants to go to Richmond and the Bolton trade appears cheaper,

He wants to go to North and we offer them picks for their future first to make it happen,

He wants to go to Carlton and we don't get invovled?

 

[Cobbler]

Teams will come hard for our picks by virtue of the fact we have plenty of picks to come hard at.

We should just remove day pick 10 from all discussions.

Keep that up our sleeve.

Bolton and 29 for 9 and 16 is solid for all.

 

[freo84]

Would you prefer:

He wants to go to Melbourne and we offer them picks for Pickett to make it happen,

He wants to go to Richmond and the Bolton trade appears cheaper,

He wants to go to North and we offer them picks for their future first to make it happen,

He wants to go to Carlton and we don't get invovled?

I want pickett and Bolton... if Warner is on the table then that complicates things.

I don't care how or the cost.

 

[Andyy]

Not sure you understand how point sliding works? If the Bid comes at pick 1, no picks have moved yet!
If Ascroft is still the first player bid on at 5, again no picks have moved yet, 9 is still 9 until the bid is matched.

Correct me if I'm wrong (genuinely) but if Ashcroft is matched on a #1 bid, he becomes the #1 pick, and everything from 1 onwards slides down 1 spot including the associated point value?

2020 draft example. JUH matched at #1, every other pick slides and loses quantitative point value?

 

[Andyy]

Dan Houston

5

Dan Houston

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

11.8

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.0

5star

MG

289.2

4star

D

17.6

4star

K

11.6

4star

HB

6.0

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.4

4star

MG

319.9

5star

D

16.6

4star

K

12.4

5star

HB

4.2

4star

M

7.0

5star

T

2.6

4star

MG

279.8

5star

requested a trade to Victoria after saying he was staying....

A few days after being bounced out of the flag race? What a surprise haha.

I want pickett and Bolton... if Warner is on the table then that complicates things.

I don't care how or the cost.

And like your attitude. If you have a list to compete, this is how you should approach the trade period IMO.

Teams will come hard for our picks by virtue of the fact we have plenty of picks to come hard at.

We should just remove day pick 10 from all discussions.

Keep that up our sleeve.

Bolton and 29 for 9 and 16 is solid for all.

I'd feel a bit hard done by if I was RFC's list manager. Certainly no wages paid from us in that deal.

 

[Taylor]

Correct me if I'm wrong (genuinely) but if Ashcroft is matched on a #1 bid, he becomes the #1 pick, and everything from 1 onwards slides down 1 spot including the associated point value?

Yes and the clubs seeking to match bids later do get to match a later pick but their own selections move back by a greater amount due to the exponential curve of the value.

 

[Andyy]

Yes and the clubs seeking to match bids later do get to match a later pick but their own selections move back by a greater amount due to the exponential curve of the value.

Only if they have a point deficit?

If they accumulate other picks to use for the bid I don't think they slide/as much.

Hence why having your picks all slide due to other bids can be at least important enough not to discount entirely.


(apologies if we're hijacking thread here)

 

[FreoRicci]

He's not better than Schultz at all, would take Shoota easily.

Didn’t really make my point clear. Poor choice of wording.
My bad. He feels more like a Switkowski type player rather than a genuine goal kicker. Bizarre choice offering Close a ‘big contract’. Miers and Stengle are far better and clinical

 

[CapitalA]

Hear me out.....

Is there any chance that NOD could develop into the burst mid that we wanted in Warner, and can therefore use the capital elsewhere?

I have been thinking the same thing, they are very similar archetypes but Warner is just better.

 

[Big Animal]

just sounds like Close is negotiating for a larger contract with Geelong. Just the usual.