Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

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No Bont numbers but regarding Smilie:

2023 Preseason testing:
Vertical: 75cm
20m: 3.077
Agility: 8.494
Yo-yo: 800

2024 Preseason testing:
Vertical: 73cm
20m: 3.093
Agility: 8.501
Yo-yo: 720
Thanks for that. Hows your memory for Bont in his draft year? The write i posted makes him sound very similar to Smillie, in that they saw him more a link up type and they felt he'd need to work more on his contested and burst.

My curiosity got the better of me, so i had to look it up because my memory was that he wasn't a lay-down misère to be the player he turned into (not that ive never been a super close draft watcher). Also being human we naturally have a tendency to project the traits of guns players we see today and think thats what they were in their draft years.
 

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Most likely we lose to Swans/Blues/Cats. We're a chance to win 2-3 out of GC/WCE/Tigers/Hawks/Dogs.
WCE should lose to Demons, Freo, Lions, Blues, Cats. Chance against Saints (Marvel), GC (WA), NM.
Tigers should lose to Freo, GWS, Port, Pies, Hawks. Chance against NM, Saints and Rd 24 GC at G.

The WCE and Tigers games against NM, GC and Saints will decide ladder position. Tigers I think will be last.
WCE could beat Demons or Freo in an one out of the box game.
I thought WC were very disappointing last week given on paper they looked solid. Id expect that team to gel better going forward. Id maintain we're a long shot to end up with pick 3 and no chance to end up with pick 4 given the Saints are 4 games and 30% ahead of us. Pick 2 is most likely.
 
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A lot will be dictated by ladder position obviously, but if we don’t end up with Pick 1, I see Trainor as a real possibility.

Comben, Trainor & W.Dawson is a set and forget for over a decade.

In my head, I now really think it more likely than unlikely we have two top 5 picks at the end of the year.

If Zurhaar is now more likely to leave, I just can’t see a scenario in which we aren’t walking way with Band 1, there’s just too much in favor of that being the outcome.

1. His contract value is very close to the threshold anyway.

2. The difference between Band 1 and Band 2 is absolutely enormous given our ladder position. We will be leveraging this outcome as our biggest priority.

3. He’s a restricted free agent and his market value is more than the Band 2 compo pick, we will match it and force a trade.

4. Collingwood have already sold years of picks in the last few years and would be desperate to recruit him via Free Agency vs a trade. His trade package will likely see them lose a F1 and a R2 pick.

5. The difference in salary required to trigger Band 1 from his current offer is complete unders vs the value of Collingwoods picks. They would view it internally as a net positive to pay the extra vs losing the picks.

6. There’s a whole heap of other strategies we could undertake to make this work with Collingwood. I.e recruiting one of their fringe players via trade on one of their worst contracts to free up the cap space for Zurhaar’s salary bump. I.E Tom Mitchell.
 
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In my head, I now really think it more likely than unlikely we have two top 5 picks at the end of the year.

If Zurhaar is now more likely to leave, I just can’t see a scenario in which we aren’t walking way with Band 1, there’s just too much in favor of that being the outcome.

1. His contract value is very close to the threshold anyway.

2. The difference between Band 1 and Band 2 is absolutely enormous given our ladder position. We will be leveraging this outcome as our biggest priority.

3. He’s a restricted free agent and his market value is more than the Band 2 compo pick, we will match it and force a trade.

4. Collingwood have already sold years of picks in the last few years and would be desperate to recruit him via Free Agency vs a trade. His trade package will likely see them lose a F1 and a R2 pick.

5. The difference in salary required to trigger Band 1 from his current offer is complete unders vs the value of Collingwoods picks. They would view it internally as a net positive to pay the extra vs losing the picks.

6. There’s a whole heap of other strategies we could undertake to make this work with Collingwood. I.e recruiting one of their fringe players via trade on one of their worst contracts to free up the cap space for Zurhaar’s salary bump. I.E Tom Mitchell.

To trigger Band 1, Cam Zurhaar has to be within the top 5% of player contracts across the AFL. On average, that means he has to be considered one of the two most valuable players at a club. That seems completely unrealistic regarding Zurhaar. However...

There were some anomalies last year because the salary cap increased by $750k for this year, and new contracts fit within that expanded cap whereas the free agency compensation has to be measured against existing contracts for 2023. The TPP is indexed to increase even further in 2025, as I understand, by $2 million, before some lesser (sub $500k) increases in 2026 and 2027. And if my reading of the situation is correct, that suggests there will be a couple of Free Agents this year who are totally kissed on the dick by their fortunate timing, and their current clubs will receive Band 1 compensation contrary to their perceived value and much to the chagrin of all other clubs and supporters.
 
A lot will be dictated by ladder position obviously, but if we don’t end up with Pick 1, I see Trainor as a real possibility.

Comben, Trainor & W.Dawson is a set and forget for over a decade.
I was told that both North and Richmond are all over Trainor.
 
With the possibilities of finishing 17th or 16th, it becomes harder to try and split pick 2 or 3 for a top 5-8 pick and mid 1st rounder?
We finish !6th...Richmond would want FOS as they already have grunt mids and depends what WCE do...Smillie in a future midfield that already has bulls or a Smith would could feed them? Saints are desperate for a class mid, Brissie needs more points for an Ashcroft top 5 bid, Adelaide would have their sights on Draper, Hawks likely after KPF, Freo have 12,13 & 16... i can see us being involved in pick swaps should, as others have said, fall in love with certain talents.

For me, Trainor, Allan and Kako...dunno how you do this Will but get it done!!
 
With the possibilities of finishing 17th or 16th, it becomes harder to try and split pick 2 or 3 for a top 5-8 pick and mid 1st rounder?
We finish !6th...Richmond would want FOS as they already have grunt mids and depends what WCE do...Smillie in a future midfield that already has bulls or a Smith would could feed them? Saints are desperate for a class mid, Brissie needs more points for an Ashcroft top 5 bid, Adelaide would have their sights on Draper, Hawks likely after KPF, Freo have 12,13 & 16... i can see us being involved in pick swaps should, as others have said, fall in love with certain talents.

For me, Trainor, Allan and Kako...dunno how you do this Will but get it done!!
Allan or Lalor, along with Trainor and Kako would be unreal.
Still no KPF in there though. Sims or Gerryn whateverhisnameis?
 

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If Trainor can be a 193cm replacement for the Tucker role, except who can really defend, then he would really be filling a need.

If he is more a true KPD, but can also quarterback from he backline with classy disposal then he would be a need (our KPDs don't have great disposal).
 
I was told that both North and Richmond are all over Trainor.
Well, that is interesting very interesting. first up, Richmond need elite midfielders in the draft followed by a key forward, a key defender or as I see young Luke an intercepting 3rd tall is to me a smoke screen, now I like Luke as a player and like just about everybody else the fact he supports us and his family connection to the club is fantastic but if Richmond took Luke with say pick 1 not only would Bigfooty crash but if say we finished with pick 2 after it got up and running again after our pick I can guarantee you that it would crash again!

All recruiters have differing opinions come the draft, their whiteboard represents this and even for us its hard to see both of us all over Luke unless both teams potentially saw him as a key forward in the future because we know he's a good backman and can do his job, that last game of his in my opinion was one of the best games he's played at the champs and I'm not talking about stats, some people get to caught up in statistics and it can blind you, the eye test has always stood the test of time and his last game was very good.

Thank you for sharing what you heard giantroo, it is going to be mighty interesting what pick we have and whether you can trade two years of draft picks and the order of players that Will has on his white board and probably one of the biggest questions is, on our board do we trade down to get two players we love or pick the supposed higher player in general rankings amongst recruiters? I always say back your judgement but in the off chance he is our target then we will be trading down there is no question about that.

I have a feeling that he's not the only one we are all over! ;)
 
Well, that is interesting very interesting. first up, Richmond need elite midfielders in the draft followed by a key forward, a key defender or as I see young Luke an intercepting 3rd tall is to me a smoke screen, now I like Luke as a player and like just about everybody else the fact he supports us and his family connection to the club is fantastic but if Richmond took Luke with say pick 1 not only would Bigfooty crash but if say we finished with pick 2 after it got up and running again after our pick I can guarantee you that it would crash again!

All recruiters have differing opinions come the draft, their whiteboard represents this and even for us its hard to see both of us all over Luke unless both teams potentially saw him as a key forward in the future because we know he's a good backman and can do his job, that last game of his in my opinion was one of the best games he's played at the champs and I'm not talking about stats, some people get to caught up in statistics and it can blind you, the eye test has always stood the test of time and his last game was very good.

Thank you for sharing what you heard giantroo, it is going to be mighty interesting what pick we have and whether you can trade two years of draft picks and the order of players that Will has on his white board and probably one of the biggest questions is, on our board do we trade down to get two players we love or pick the supposed higher player in general rankings amongst recruiters? I always say back your judgement but in the off chance he is our target then we will be trading down there is no question about that.

I have a feeling that he's not the only one we are all over! ;)
I cant help but think its way easier to look a standout as a tall defender. Gun key forwards are infinitely harder to find for a reason.

Granted there more games of Trainor's i could watch, but what i did see was some good attacking play but also being out marked a few times he should've spoiled in his sleep. I haven't watched more because what i saw wasn't pick 2 or 3 worthy. About the only way i see us getting him is if we get band 1 for CZ and split it.

Taking best available with our first really rounds out all we could need to midfield talent. Splitting the compo pick becomes far more appealing if we ended up with say pick 2 and 3. If we managed one of Smillie or FOS then Trainor and hopefully one of Kako or Lalor would be ideal.
 
I was told that both North and Richmond are all over Trainor.
Maybe we think a band 1 compo is far more likely and looking at ways to get him splitting that pick and Richmond have trades they'll make to put themselves in that range.
I just cant see how either club would have him in the top 3.
 
Well, that is interesting very interesting. first up, Richmond need elite midfielders in the draft followed by a key forward, a key defender or as I see young Luke an intercepting 3rd tall is to me a smoke screen, now I like Luke as a player and like just about everybody else the fact he supports us and his family connection to the club is fantastic but if Richmond took Luke with say pick 1 not only would Bigfooty crash but if say we finished with pick 2 after it got up and running again after our pick I can guarantee you that it would crash again!

All recruiters have differing opinions come the draft, their whiteboard represents this and even for us its hard to see both of us all over Luke unless both teams potentially saw him as a key forward in the future because we know he's a good backman and can do his job, that last game of his in my opinion was one of the best games he's played at the champs and I'm not talking about stats, some people get to caught up in statistics and it can blind you, the eye test has always stood the test of time and his last game was very good.

Thank you for sharing what you heard giantroo, it is going to be mighty interesting what pick we have and whether you can trade two years of draft picks and the order of players that Will has on his white board and probably one of the biggest questions is, on our board do we trade down to get two players we love or pick the supposed higher player in general rankings amongst recruiters? I always say back your judgement but in the off chance he is our target then we will be trading down there is no question about that.

I have a feeling that he's not the only one we are all over! ;)
Maybe they just rate him and aren't drafting for fit
 
More goal kicking power in the form of a KPF and small forward should be the priority. Larkey is our only forward at the moment capable of kicking multiple goals on a regular basis. A need we still haven't addressed yet.
We're not drafting any KPF who will be helping Larkey in the next 2 years. We need to address that in trade week and maybe add a developing backup with our 2nd rounder.
 
Just get me Kako. Curtis can’t be the sole crumber

If Bull goes then get me Berry or Champion too.

A mosquito fleet of PC, Kako and Champion sitting at the heels of Larkey, Duursma and Teakle will cause havoc for 10 years.
 
I cant help but think its way easier to look a standout as a tall defender. Gun key forwards are infinitely harder to find for a reason.

Granted there more games of Trainor's i could watch, but what i did see was some good attacking play but also being out marked a few times he should've spoiled in his sleep. I haven't watched more because what i saw wasn't pick 2 or 3 worthy. About the only way i see us getting him is if we get band 1 for CZ and split it.

Taking best available with our first really rounds out all we could need to midfield talent. Splitting the compo pick becomes far more appealing if we ended up with say pick 2 and 3. If we managed one of Smillie or FOS then Trainor and hopefully one of Kako or Lalor would be ideal.
Totally agree with you. The only way we split our 1st pick is if we already have Smillie or FOS. rapt up. Meaning like you say we get band 1 for Cam which i don't think will happen cause he will be staying.
 

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