Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[AD03]

Caution: longish read ahead…

I’ve spent my day watching videos of all the top 4 players (thanks flu) through the “footy stuff” YouTube channel and have some thoughts:

Draper:

Have him by far the 4th best option of these. Doesn’t fix our problems.

Strengths:
Competitor: has a crack and keeps buttering up when the ball is in his vicinity.

Clearance work: stays on the move and has a knack for getting to the right spot.

Speed: is able to burst away from traffic and get into space

Weaknesses:
Decision making: so often he gets out into miles of space, and keeps running until he is forced to pop a loopy handball over the top of an opponent.

Kicking: while neat over 20m, his kicking on the run/under pressure is far weaker than any of the others. Often kicks high 30m aimless bombs, and doesn’t have much of an opposite foot. It’s a real issue

Smith:

Seems bust proof but also isn’t a game breaker. I have him 3rd but I can see the appeal.

Strengths:
Accumulation: knows where the ball is going to go and keeps popping up in good spots.

Clever: uses his agility to create space to handball to players in better positions.

Consistent: a lot of his games are very similar. You put his magnet on the board and can be assured of the job he’ll be able to do.

Weaknesses:
Size: won’t stay this small forever but he’s wire thin and not much of a physical threat.

Penetration: he’s a tidy kick. But he tends to kick loopy balls and would struggle to kick far past 40m.

Hurt factor: he’s very involved, but compared to the others his possessions can be less impactful

FOS:

More of a mixed bag than smith but has moments of real quality and afl level traits. Starts round 1 next year as a will hayward with the potential to turn into Heeney

Strengths:
Marking: super athletic and has a great set of hands. Also helps him stay involved defensively as he can spoil and intercept t a higher level.

Kick penetration: can kick a set shot from 50m without much issue and when he blazes away it at least clears a significant distance.

Creativity: can also be his downfall at times but he goes for things that if successful are high impact, doesn’t get the ball like the others but most of his possessions are memorable

Weaknesses:

Accumulation: not as worried about this as some on here but he doesn’t get as much footy as the other 3.

Awareness: probably not the best word for it but he gets caught more often than you’d want. It’s one thing to take it on but you can’t always be superman.

Lalor:

Can see why he’s rumoured to go 1 to the Tigers, oozes afl quality, plays a lot like DeGoey from what I saw.

Strengths:

Kicking: can kick a big ball and pierced it low and hard through the middle with regularity

Size: he’s a big lad and against guys his age he’s way too tough to handle

Confidence: Carries himself like a star. Backs himself to win contests and does.

Weaknesses:

Injuries: high grade hammy this year is a little alarming

Position: is he a full time mid at afl level or is he a half forward who has bursts inside?

This exercise reinforced my high opinions of Lalor and FOS, solidified Smith as a solid 3rd option, and cooled me significantly on Draper.

Still think there’s next to no chance we get a bad player at 3, but Draper throws up red flags that clubs always say they can fix, but never do

Most sensible post I’ve seen in about 15 pages on this topic.

Far better summary than the standard “I don’t like FOS” after watching 1 4min clip.

 

[HarryFlashman]

I think i may have an original question - out of the top prospects who is the best off both sides?

Of all the flaws, IMO being weak on your non preferred is the hardest to fix

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Most sensible post I’ve seen in about 15 pages on this topic.

Far better summary than the standard “I don’t like FOS” after watching 1 4min clip.

I'm not sure watching 3-4 4 minute clips is a hell of a lot better is it? A lot of posts on here this time of year are from posters who seemingly haven't watched a single full game of some of the prospects their commenting on.

Clips of when they actually get the ball only tells half the tail most of the time, especially when discussing their defensive application and ability to stay involved around the ground.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I think i may have an original question - out of the top prospects who is the best off both sides?

Of all the flaws, IMO being weak on your non preferred is the hardest to fix

Probably Jagga of the top group though wouldn't call any of them dual sided. He's serviceable though. Haven't seen FOS or Draper use their non preferred much at all.

 

[DollarsandSense]

We’re going to be passing at this selection

Does it start with Dr and ends in aper?

 

[ctwenty1]

I’m not sure what the contingency plan is.

You mean we don’t have a Plan B?

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Definitely see a clear 4, although haven’t watched much of Langford, also excludes Ashcroft cause I’m not counting him


Still think FOS is the one with the most upside, jagga the safest one. If I was drafting with pick 1 I’d go FOS Jagga Lalor and then Draper

Yep. Throw a blanket over the top 5 including ashcroft. Great draft to hold pick 3! Could very easily walk away with the best player in the draft with no clear #1.

Ashcroft looks solid but not sure why Twomey thinks he's the clear #1. Very good ball winner but not super quick.

 

[ferrisb]

Skinny is most times fixable.

Can confirm

 

[BlueTongue]

I’d be happy with either of Jagga, Draper or Langford.

Was responding to Robbo’s post about Langfords qualities - has excellent disposal, can mark, play midfield and forward. A lot of his highlights show kicking long / short and hitting forwards - something we desperately lack.

Finally some common sense. Cal Twomey has this guy at #2 after Ashcroft.
His highlights reel looks so much better than Drapers, whom Twomey has at #8.
Draper is quick, strong through the hips, but I can’t see what 35% of this board see.
For a top 3 pick, I think Draper is a big risk because of his disposal.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Dow had (and has) that initial burst out of the stoppage. It's still his strength.

He otherwise gets lost a lot, and his second efforts aren't consistent. His footy IQ isn't great which (along with his still smaller frame) is why his possession count is low.

It's why I'm wary of blokes like FOS. Low possession count and gets caught HTB a fair bit (despite being a very evasive player, fast and with a good initial burst of speed). He lacks game awareness, and his second efforts are not great. While everyone wants to point at injuries (they were finger injuries mainly) I put it down to a low footy IQ.

Compare him to Smith, who has an elite footy IQ. His second efforts are next level, and he's always involved in the play. It's why he racks them up.

While FOS is a different player to Dow, I see them as having the same issues at the next level. He might make it (I dont want to sit here having pot shots at the kid) and make me look like a goose in a few years' time, but it's just too much of a risk for us to take (having traded this year and next years 1sts for him).

If he doesnt come on, it'll be two whole drafts in a row where we've blown 1st rounders (after blowing 3 of them in a row on SPS, Stocker and Dow in the middle of our rebuild).

Lalor, Smith and Draper OTOH will absolutely make it at the next level, and (unlike FOS, who best case scenario if he does make it, will take time) all three of them could easily play from R1 next year, and make us a better side immediately.

It's not about having pot shots at the kid. We all know we know next to nothing. It's just discussing who has the least / most risk - and at pick 3 you'd really hope for a guy who averages 25-30 pos and has elite athletic traits. With FOS you're getting the second bit and hoping he picks up the first.

But the guys who have the data that matters on all these kids are getting paid to run our recruiting dept so ultimately I'll trust them regardless.

 

[GT619]

Finally some common sense. Cal Twomey has this guy at #2 after Ashcroft.
His highlights reel looks so much better than Drapers, whom Twomey has at #8.
Draper is quick, strong through the hips, but I can’t see what 35% of this board see.
For a top 3 pick, I think Draper is a big risk because of his disposal.

the type of player hawthorn would pick without hesitation regardless of pace

 

[Malifice]

But the guys who have the data that matters on all these kids are getting paid to run our recruiting dept so ultimately I'll trust them regardless.

They've been different people over the years, but historically as a club we've utterly sucked with ND selections (in particular, 1st rounders).

1st round picks over the last 15 years (and we've had some low finishes over those 15 years remember) include Lucas, Menzel, Stocker, Dow, SPS, Watson, Boekhorst, Menzel, LOB and Yarran.

Yarran a bit unlucky to be there because he could play (it was the off-field shit that did him in).

Other than 2013 (Cripps), 2015 (Weitering, McKay, Curnow) and 2018 (Walsh) it's been grim reading. Cripps is the big stand out, with a lot of clubs convinced he was too slow and couldn't run, we took a punt and it paid off big time.

Seeing as this years 1st rounder is effectively this year AND next years 1st rounder, we cant afford to take any risks.

 

[bradfisher14]

my votes still on berry at 3

WalshistheGOAT found your other account mate

 

[RPCB]

I am quite positive that Nick Austin didn’t trade up for Pick 3, only to trade down for something like 6 and 18 (I have seen that suggested on here)…which will give Nick Austin a worse draft pick than when he had both Pick 12 and 14. It would be crazy if Nick did trade 3.

 

[Benaly28]

Finally some common sense. Cal Twomey has this guy at #2 after Ashcroft.
His highlights reel looks so much better than Drapers, whom Twomey has at #8.
Draper is quick, strong through the hips, but I can’t see what 35% of this board see.
For a top 3 pick, I think Draper is a big risk because of his disposal.

Left footer which offers a point of difference as well…..we do have a spare no.22 could see why people like him smooth mover different to Sid.

Still have Sid though.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Sheephead]

Can confirm

What about height legend?

Got anything for mutton hips also??

 

[Sheephead]

Yep. Throw a blanket over the top 5 including ashcroft. Great draft to hold pick 3! Could very easily walk away with the best player in the draft with no clear #1.

Ashcroft looks solid but not sure why Twomey thinks he's the clear #1. Very good ball winner but not super quick.

People are criminally underselling Smillie. In March he was ranked at #1.

Smith/Ashcroft/Lalor/O’Sullivan/Draper/Smillie then there’s Reid/Langford/Allan.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Finally some common sense. Cal Twomey has this guy at #2 after Ashcroft.
His highlights reel looks so much better than Drapers, whom Twomey has at #8.
Draper is quick, strong through the hips, but I can’t see what 35% of this board see.
For a top 3 pick, I think Draper is a big risk because of his disposal.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if someone like Langford becomes the best player from the draft but to me it would just seem weird to trade up for him. He would probably make a great Cripps replacement but I’d be hoping that if you are in your window then using two first rounders and a second rounder on someone that they would be to fill a current hole and somewhat for the now.
I don’t think Langford complements Cerra, Hewett and Cripps right now or do I think you can have a forward line with E Hollands and Langford in it yet.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

They've been different people over the years, but historically as a club we've utterly sucked with ND selections (in particular, 1st rounders).

1st round picks over the last 15 years (and we've had some low finishes over those 15 years remember) include Lucas, Menzel, Stocker, Dow, SPS, Watson, Boekhorst, Menzel, LOB and Yarran.

Yarran a bit unlucky to be there because he could play (it was the off-field shit that did him in).

Other than 2013 (Cripps), 2015 (Weitering, McKay, Curnow) and 2018 (Walsh) it's been grim reading. Cripps is the big stand out, with a lot of clubs convinced he was too slow and couldn't run, we took a punt and it paid off big time.

Seeing as this years 1st rounder is effectively this year AND next years 1st rounder, we cant afford to take any risks.

You may want to review Austin’s record at the ND - barely a pick in the top 25 but arguably not a miss
C Durdin 37
Carroll 41
Motlop 27
Hollands 12
Cowan 30
Binns 32
Lemmey 47
Moir 29
Wilson 34

I reckon we can trust this bloke with pick 3 in a super draft (more than everyone on here who haven’t even seen these blokes play a full game, let alone live, or spoken to them or their families)

 

[Coops93]

Dow had (and has) that initial burst out of the stoppage. It's still his strength.

It is, but it isn't elite and doesn't realistically provide a lot as he doesn't have the gears after that so doesn't often actually build separation after the initial burst. I don't think it's a strong enough strength that it provides a point of difference to a midfield, which was my initial point.

I like the rest of the post.

 

[BlueTongue]

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if someone like Langford becomes the best player from the draft but to me it would just seem weird to trade up for him. He would probably make a great Cripps replacement but I’d be hoping that if you are in your window then using two first rounders and a second rounder on someone that they would be to fill a current hole and somewhat for the now.
I don’t think Langford complements Cerra, Hewett and Cripps right now or do I think you can have a forward line with E Hollands and Langford in it yet.

TBH, trading up for those top 5 mids doesn't make sense to me. 1 player isn't going to improve our pace much overall. I think we'd have been better with 12 & 14 and getting 2 decent players, rather than looking at one to solve all our problems.

From the trade rumours I read, North were looking for a bigger bodied player. Langford's about average size for a mid, maybe a bit taller, so let's hope they grab him. I reckon it'll be him or Smillie if the whispers are to be believed.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Can confirm

Damn those over-corrections. Damn them to hell.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

You may want to review Austin’s record at the ND - barely a pick in the top 25 but arguably not a miss
C Durdin 37
Carroll 41
Motlop 27
Hollands 12
Cowan 30
Binns 32
Lemmey 47
Moir 29
Wilson 34

I reckon we can trust this bloke with pick 3 in a super draft (more than everyone on here who haven’t even seen these blokes play a full game, let alone live, or spoken to them or their families)

A bit too early to decide on hits or misses at the comment. We can probably tick off Hollands and Cowan, but plenty to go for the rest to get there.

Durdin is fortunate to be under contract, and Carroll might still be let go.

 

[HarryFlashman]

TBH, trading up for those top 5 mids doesn't make sense to me. 1 player isn't going to improve our pace much overall. I think we'd have been better with 12 & 14 and getting 2 decent players, rather than looking at one to solve all our problems.

From the trade rumours I read, North were looking for a bigger bodied player. Langford's about average size for a mid, maybe a bit taller, so let's hope they grab him. I reckon it'll be him or Smillie if the whispers are to be believed.

1 player could improve our pace massively - Hewett out & pick 3 & Lord into the CB rotation.
They come in with a frenetic attitude - attacking the ball & the play but also players defensively.
They contest the CB with Crippa & Cerra, we now have Walsh steaming in from the side & Doc charging in from the back. Front of the square u have Mots/Moir/Kemp.

That’s one player change & we get a whole lot faster - it’s the attitude & structure that speeds up, not the actual leg speed of just one player.

Factor is TDK & H/JSOS as the ruckman & we are off to the races

 

[HereComesJuddy]

My order of preference (not that it matters):
Lalor
Jagga
Reid
Langford
FOS
Draper

Top 5 I’d be happy with. Draper I think won’t be picked in the top 3 (outside Ashcroft)