Analysis 2024 National Draft

[teddy-hopkins]

Definitely see a clear 4, although haven’t watched much of Langford, also excludes Ashcroft cause I’m not counting him


Still think FOS is the one with the most upside, jagga the safest one. If I was drafting with pick 1 I’d go FOS Jagga Lalor and then Draper

Yep. Throw a blanket over the top 5 including ashcroft. Great draft to hold pick 3! Could very easily walk away with the best player in the draft with no clear #1.

Ashcroft looks solid but not sure why Twomey thinks he's the clear #1. Very good ball winner but not super quick.

 

[ferrisb]

Skinny is most times fixable.

Can confirm

 

[BlueTongue]

I’d be happy with either of Jagga, Draper or Langford.

Was responding to Robbo’s post about Langfords qualities - has excellent disposal, can mark, play midfield and forward. A lot of his highlights show kicking long / short and hitting forwards - something we desperately lack.

Finally some common sense. Cal Twomey has this guy at #2 after Ashcroft.
His highlights reel looks so much better than Drapers, whom Twomey has at #8.
Draper is quick, strong through the hips, but I can’t see what 35% of this board see.
For a top 3 pick, I think Draper is a big risk because of his disposal.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Dow had (and has) that initial burst out of the stoppage. It's still his strength.

He otherwise gets lost a lot, and his second efforts aren't consistent. His footy IQ isn't great which (along with his still smaller frame) is why his possession count is low.

It's why I'm wary of blokes like FOS. Low possession count and gets caught HTB a fair bit (despite being a very evasive player, fast and with a good initial burst of speed). He lacks game awareness, and his second efforts are not great. While everyone wants to point at injuries (they were finger injuries mainly) I put it down to a low footy IQ.

Compare him to Smith, who has an elite footy IQ. His second efforts are next level, and he's always involved in the play. It's why he racks them up.

While FOS is a different player to Dow, I see them as having the same issues at the next level. He might make it (I dont want to sit here having pot shots at the kid) and make me look like a goose in a few years' time, but it's just too much of a risk for us to take (having traded this year and next years 1sts for him).

If he doesnt come on, it'll be two whole drafts in a row where we've blown 1st rounders (after blowing 3 of them in a row on SPS, Stocker and Dow in the middle of our rebuild).

Lalor, Smith and Draper OTOH will absolutely make it at the next level, and (unlike FOS, who best case scenario if he does make it, will take time) all three of them could easily play from R1 next year, and make us a better side immediately.

It's not about having pot shots at the kid. We all know we know next to nothing. It's just discussing who has the least / most risk - and at pick 3 you'd really hope for a guy who averages 25-30 pos and has elite athletic traits. With FOS you're getting the second bit and hoping he picks up the first.

But the guys who have the data that matters on all these kids are getting paid to run our recruiting dept so ultimately I'll trust them regardless.

 

[GT619]

Finally some common sense. Cal Twomey has this guy at #2 after Ashcroft.
His highlights reel looks so much better than Drapers, whom Twomey has at #8.
Draper is quick, strong through the hips, but I can’t see what 35% of this board see.
For a top 3 pick, I think Draper is a big risk because of his disposal.

the type of player hawthorn would pick without hesitation regardless of pace

 

[Malifice]

But the guys who have the data that matters on all these kids are getting paid to run our recruiting dept so ultimately I'll trust them regardless.

They've been different people over the years, but historically as a club we've utterly sucked with ND selections (in particular, 1st rounders).

1st round picks over the last 15 years (and we've had some low finishes over those 15 years remember) include Lucas, Menzel, Stocker, Dow, SPS, Watson, Boekhorst, Menzel, LOB and Yarran.

Yarran a bit unlucky to be there because he could play (it was the off-field shit that did him in).

Other than 2013 (Cripps), 2015 (Weitering, McKay, Curnow) and 2018 (Walsh) it's been grim reading. Cripps is the big stand out, with a lot of clubs convinced he was too slow and couldn't run, we took a punt and it paid off big time.

Seeing as this years 1st rounder is effectively this year AND next years 1st rounder, we cant afford to take any risks.

 

[bradfisher14]

my votes still on berry at 3

WalshistheGOAT found your other account mate

 

[Benaly28]

Finally some common sense. Cal Twomey has this guy at #2 after Ashcroft.
His highlights reel looks so much better than Drapers, whom Twomey has at #8.
Draper is quick, strong through the hips, but I can’t see what 35% of this board see.
For a top 3 pick, I think Draper is a big risk because of his disposal.

Left footer which offers a point of difference as well…..we do have a spare no.22 could see why people like him smooth mover different to Sid.

Still have Sid though.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Sheephead]

Can confirm

What about height legend?

Got anything for mutton hips also??

 

[Sheephead]

Yep. Throw a blanket over the top 5 including ashcroft. Great draft to hold pick 3! Could very easily walk away with the best player in the draft with no clear #1.

Ashcroft looks solid but not sure why Twomey thinks he's the clear #1. Very good ball winner but not super quick.

People are criminally underselling Smillie. In March he was ranked at #1.

Smith/Ashcroft/Lalor/O’Sullivan/Draper/Smillie then there’s Reid/Langford/Allan.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Finally some common sense. Cal Twomey has this guy at #2 after Ashcroft.
His highlights reel looks so much better than Drapers, whom Twomey has at #8.
Draper is quick, strong through the hips, but I can’t see what 35% of this board see.
For a top 3 pick, I think Draper is a big risk because of his disposal.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if someone like Langford becomes the best player from the draft but to me it would just seem weird to trade up for him. He would probably make a great Cripps replacement but I’d be hoping that if you are in your window then using two first rounders and a second rounder on someone that they would be to fill a current hole and somewhat for the now.
I don’t think Langford complements Cerra, Hewett and Cripps right now or do I think you can have a forward line with E Hollands and Langford in it yet.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

They've been different people over the years, but historically as a club we've utterly sucked with ND selections (in particular, 1st rounders).

1st round picks over the last 15 years (and we've had some low finishes over those 15 years remember) include Lucas, Menzel, Stocker, Dow, SPS, Watson, Boekhorst, Menzel, LOB and Yarran.

Yarran a bit unlucky to be there because he could play (it was the off-field shit that did him in).

Other than 2013 (Cripps), 2015 (Weitering, McKay, Curnow) and 2018 (Walsh) it's been grim reading. Cripps is the big stand out, with a lot of clubs convinced he was too slow and couldn't run, we took a punt and it paid off big time.

Seeing as this years 1st rounder is effectively this year AND next years 1st rounder, we cant afford to take any risks.

You may want to review Austin’s record at the ND - barely a pick in the top 25 but arguably not a miss
C Durdin 37
Carroll 41
Motlop 27
Hollands 12
Cowan 30
Binns 32
Lemmey 47
Moir 29
Wilson 34

I reckon we can trust this bloke with pick 3 in a super draft (more than everyone on here who haven’t even seen these blokes play a full game, let alone live, or spoken to them or their families)

 

[Coops93]

Dow had (and has) that initial burst out of the stoppage. It's still his strength.

It is, but it isn't elite and doesn't realistically provide a lot as he doesn't have the gears after that so doesn't often actually build separation after the initial burst. I don't think it's a strong enough strength that it provides a point of difference to a midfield, which was my initial point.

I like the rest of the post.

 

[BlueTongue]

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if someone like Langford becomes the best player from the draft but to me it would just seem weird to trade up for him. He would probably make a great Cripps replacement but I’d be hoping that if you are in your window then using two first rounders and a second rounder on someone that they would be to fill a current hole and somewhat for the now.
I don’t think Langford complements Cerra, Hewett and Cripps right now or do I think you can have a forward line with E Hollands and Langford in it yet.

TBH, trading up for those top 5 mids doesn't make sense to me. 1 player isn't going to improve our pace much overall. I think we'd have been better with 12 & 14 and getting 2 decent players, rather than looking at one to solve all our problems.

From the trade rumours I read, North were looking for a bigger bodied player. Langford's about average size for a mid, maybe a bit taller, so let's hope they grab him. I reckon it'll be him or Smillie if the whispers are to be believed.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Can confirm

Damn those over-corrections. Damn them to hell.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

You may want to review Austin’s record at the ND - barely a pick in the top 25 but arguably not a miss
C Durdin 37
Carroll 41
Motlop 27
Hollands 12
Cowan 30
Binns 32
Lemmey 47
Moir 29
Wilson 34

I reckon we can trust this bloke with pick 3 in a super draft (more than everyone on here who haven’t even seen these blokes play a full game, let alone live, or spoken to them or their families)

A bit too early to decide on hits or misses at the comment. We can probably tick off Hollands and Cowan, but plenty to go for the rest to get there.

Durdin is fortunate to be under contract, and Carroll might still be let go.