Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Juice030103]

I don’t hate you. You’re just wrong. “Not quick” does not equal “slow”. Reid is a decent athlete. Adequate pace and good endurance. You can keep calling him slow if you want but you’re only damaging your cred. Hewitt is slow. Kennedy is slow. Reid is not slow.

Take a chill pill he’s allowed to have an opinion.

does anyone actually know his 20m sprint time

 

[Bletch]

If O'Sullivan and Smith are off the board it will be between Lalor, Langford or Draper, they are the stand outs depending on what suits a club, so let's sit back and enjoy the next few days. We should snap up a quality youngster, forget the Dow effect, if possible.

Interesting Bangers updated his ratings today (on main draft board). Had Langford ranked at 20!

 

[RattAttack]

With Stephenson retiring, North now has one extra list spot to fill. If they weren’t already considering splitting pick 2, they almost certainly will now.

Assuming Richmond trade for pick 2, surely they take best mates Lalor and FOS with the first two picks.

This leaves us with Jagga or Draper (you would assume)…

 

[Pablito]

With Stephenson retiring, North now has one extra list spot to fill. If they weren’t already considering splitting pick 2, they almost certainly will now.

Assuming Richmond trade for pick 2, surely they take best mates Lalor and FOS with the first two picks.

This leaves us with Jagga or Draper (you would assume)…

Both are better options for us anyway.

I would love to make Adelaide pay up for 3 and we get 4 and a nice little windfall. That way we take whoever is left over.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I don’t hate you. You’re just wrong. “Not quick” does not equal “slow”. Reid is a decent athlete. Adequate pace and good endurance. You can keep calling him slow if you want but you’re only damaging your cred. Hewitt is slow. Kennedy is slow. Reid is not slow.

Recruiters are unsure of Reid citing his lack of height and leg speed. Not to say he's slow, but he's not very quick either. Most recruiters see him playing as a forward at AFL level.

Of course, could be wrong but that's just how they see him at this stage. Every chance he slides based on this.

1. Tigers - Lalor
2. Tigers - FOS or Smith (assuming Norf trade with Tigers)
3. Blues - Draper or FOS or Smith
4. Crows - Draper or FOS/Langford (if we take Draper)
5. Lions - Ashcroft (Demons bid)
6. Demons - FOS/Smith or Langford (can't see them passing these up if they are available)
7. North - Tauru
8. GCS - Lombard (Saints bid)
9. * - Kako (Saints bid)
10. Saints - Smillie
11. Saints - Lindsay or Trav
12. Demons - Armstrong

Good chance this could happen...

 

[Ninja Worrier]

That’s Langford not Reid

Sorry thought we were talking about Harvey . I recall reading somewhere that Reid was close to 3s flat in pre-season testing

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Agree with the first part, I don't agree with the second part. I think there will always be injuries. Be they in game, for extended periods or even suspensions. I think it would be foolish to not pick a pure midfielder because we have 4 current midfielders. Particularly when that current group of 4 midfielders is not putting it together as a group.

Last year we had - what 3 or 4 games where we had our full quartet of preferred midfielders all together?

Plus there is still a need to break that quartet up and add some new elements to it. Walsh, Cripps, Cerra and Hewett didn't run both ways enough and wasn't dynamic moving through the midfield. I think there is room for an elite midfielder to step into the midfield and either - replace Cerra or Hewett through sheer talent or (more likely) force a different midfield mix whereby we move away from a core four midfielders, reduce the midfield minutes of Cripps and Walsh (Cripps resting forward more, Walsh starting at CHF like he did in 2023) and have a broader distribution of midfielders around the 40-50% CBA mark.

Yeh I’m not suggesting we shouldn’t take the pure mid but just that if we took a pure mid (as the poster was asking about Draper) that they might not have a large impact next season because lack of opportunities. We don’t share our midfield time around mostly on the back of having one dimensional midfielders. I can’t think of a first year mid coming in and playing a big role in a contending side playing mostly midfield. Maybe one or two ever, Selwood? It’s possible but extremely unlikely.
I can see Walsh playing a different role but outside of that I struggle to see any benefit. Cripps drifting forward on midfielders is dangerous; Cripps playing forward on a defender is completely pointless. Cerra and Hewett, we should have better flankers then what they will produce playing there.
I’ll be shocked if we bring in a player at pick 3 that plays more than 30% midfield time so if they are more one dimensional they are likely to have a lot less impact.

(This is obviously assuming we have a fit list which never happens)

 

[Stamos]

Thanks mm3 & CB (and whoever else replies)

I thought/hoped it would be as you describe ie consultative to some degree.

We've now got the right minds, I believe, at the club, or at least it's better than before in my eyes. Be a shame not to utilise them, again, to some degree.

I think Austin and his team would have the majority of say, as they're the ones that have done all the work throughout the year, and what they're employed to do, and in that, it comes down to their assessment of talent.

I've been looking into Austin a bit lately and since coming to us in 2020, with what he's had to work with picks wise, I think he's done quite well.

Looking through each year, I don't think there was much else, by way of better players, that he could have chosen, with the picks he had.



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For what it’s worth, a poster on another board who consults in recruiting at another club (and has previously worked for us) recently posted:

The draft board is put together and an overall rankings as well as later draft pick plans for types of players are put together. The whole recruiting team has input and the list manager has no say.

 

[HyphensBack]

Interesting Bangers updated his ratings today (on main draft board). Had Langford ranked at 20!

Gee I liked what I saw of Langford, disposal looked elite - left footed penetrative high possession midfielder - what’s not to like - seems pace is the downside

 

[BlueTongue]

Interesting Bangers updated his ratings today (on main draft board). Had Langford ranked at 20!

Cal Twomey has him at #3 this month (including Ashcroft at #1) down from #2 in September.
I cannot see at any level how anyone has him at 20. If he's still available at #3 I'd be pissed off if we didn't grab him.
Sublime skills and gut running.

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' October ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his fourth Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

Langford's standout result at the Combine was his 2km time trial, when the Dandenong Stingrays midfielder completed the run in 6:24 minutes, placing him inside the top-10. It is a trait reflected in his game, with Langford gut running right to the end of contests. He had a terrific draft campaign, with the marking on-baller dominant at all levels. The left-footer's carnival for Vic Country saw him named a joint winner of the Larke Medal while his Stingrays performances were clinical, averaging more than a goal a game and 26 disposals. Langford's appeal comes in his size, presence, versatility and impact – he will be playing significant AFL footy next year.

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

I would prefer Draper a very real risk of ending up with Jagga, which does not fulfill the need for speed. I would only go down to pick 4 for 3 & a future first. That is right exploit Adelaide's despration for Draper

Yeah I'm still liking him with our pick...

Take a look at this clip at the 1:45 mark:



That is the bigger bodied "coach's dream/perfect player" Josh Smillie who not only gets beat to the pill because he waits for it while Draper just darts after it... but then he jogs after Draper bolts off with it.

Which mid do we currently have that can win the pill like that then bolt off at that speed and link up? There's a POD that he would give us.

I remember that moment vividly watching the game. What I love about Sid is his attack on the footy.

 

[BlackGoanna]

In fairness, I doubt any of us do. It would vary from club to club as to who gets a say and how much. Ideally the List Manager and recruiters should be the ones involved, but internal power and politics would vary. Be assured, the coach had a big say in Fantasia, but probably equally true he was frozen out this year re: Houston. Draft picks likely along similar lines. Expect we are closer to the “ pure” model now.

Good observation


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[koutashoulda1_1]

On Lord. People forget that as soon as he came in he was put into the midfield and Kennedy moved virtually completely out. Once Cerra came back, out went Lord.

We seem to like only playing the four midfielders, Cerra, Walsh, Cripps and Hewett. Walsh is the only one of those who is decent at playing a different position so I don’t think a lot of midfield time will be opened up without one of those four being injured or Walsh moved outside the midfield more which imo would be strange as he’s the only top runner of the lot.

The question about Draper having a second position imo is a very valid and interesting one.

Cripps resting forward, switching with pick 3 maybe. In this case FOS or Lalor. Alternatively, pick 3 off half back for the season, in which case Jagga or Langford maybe. Reckon FOS is the likely go

I'm iffy on him, but in some of his highlights runs directly parallel to goal face in the centre square into space and delivers forward (VFL highlight?). Draper only goes out front (good luck against the big boys, see Dow), Jagga only out the back (not what we need). FOS can also take a grab and kicked 2 in the VFL. Definitely seeing the sense as time goes on

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[BlackGoanna]

Yeah I'm still liking him with our pick...

Take a look at this clip at the 1:45 mark:



That is the bigger bodied "coach's dream/perfect player" Josh Smillie who not only gets beat to the pill because he waits for it while Draper just darts after it... but then he jogs after Draper bolts off with it.

Which mid do we currently have that can win the pill like that then bolt off at that speed and link up? There's a POD that he would give us.

Lachlan Fogarty. I think Draper projects to be a step up from FOG but you are getting a similar type of player. Will crack in, has some power and a sidestep but can be a bit limited with disposal and X-factor.


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[Cringle]

How often do draftees who find a lot of the ball AND have that kind of acceleration and pace turn out to be busts?

At the time - I didn’t really feel Dow had explosive pace. Mean side step and a couple quick steps at the start sure.

But LDU had the burst from stoppages most of this board were glazing.

 

[BlackGoanna]

Interesting Bangers updated his ratings today (on main draft board). Had Langford ranked at 20!

Won’t happen but would be worth trading down for


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[new_blue]

Would Jai Newcome be a fair player comparison for Sid Draper, in terms of who he plays like?

 

[Pablito]

Would Jai Newcome be a fair player comparison for Sid Draper, in terms of who he plays like?

I'd say more Patrick Dangerfield.

 

[Sheephead]

I'd say more Patrick Dangerfield.

I would have said Petracca or maybe Neale.

 

[GT619]

Hard to know the inner machinations of the club but usually the list manager would have the final call. It would be a somewhat consultative process. The football department and coach would be involved and have the chance to provide input. There would need to be alignment around the type of personalities and players looking to be brought to the club. The recruitment team would do the groundwork that would inform Austins call but ultimately it should be (and likely is) his decision.

I doubt the CEO has much to do with it aside from being across the strategy, but GW might provide some input given his background.

GW is usually hands on and give his thoughts but back those in list management

 

[marcmurphy3]

Luke Shuey

13

Luke Shuey

Age

34

Ht

184cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.7

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

10.7

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

4.9

5star

CL

5.6

5star

D

18.7

4star

K

10.8

4star

HB

7.8

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

4.3

5star

D

17.0

5star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.8

5star

CL

1.4

4star

reminds me most of Draper. Similar pace, size and playing style.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

How often do draftees who find a lot of the ball AND have that kind of acceleration and pace turn out to be busts?

At the time - I didn’t really feel Dow had explosive pace. Mean side step and a couple quick steps at the start sure.

But LDU had the burst from stoppages most of this board were glazing.

That also have great tanks and defend? I can't think of many, if any at all.

Dow was a one way clearance machine in juniors and even though he ended up a bust he was still exactly what we drafted in the end. Could still get clearances at AFL level but he couldn't defend to save himself and still struggled to find the ball outside of stoppage.

I do find it fascinating reading comments about players I watched a lot of this year though, often without much thought (given it seemed highly unlikely we'd have any chance at getting them). When watching the champs and some of the SANFL games I actually though Drapers kicking skills in space were one of his best traits outside the speed, seemed to weight the ball beautifully to leading players and just always seemed to make good decisions along with Ben who was more the grunt ball winner who was dishing it to him. Perhaps it just seemed a standout next to Ben's helicopters inside 50 but unless FOS can start finding more of the footy and Lalor can get his body right I'd still have him number 1.

Jagga has grown on me more from going back over his highlights (as its mostly just his most damaging disposals) but watching him this year I remember I consistently found myself thinking he'd had a fairly low impact game despite the huge numbers. Just remember thinking he was Matt Crouch mixed with Nick Daicos... I think a lot of his development is dependant on his body - Getting a bit more power in his kicks would make a huge difference for him.

I do wonder how different my evaluation of the top end of the draft would have been if I knew they were going to be in our mix on draft night.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Luke Shuey reminds me most of Draper. Similar pace, size and playing style.

Reckon thats spot on MM3, think I made the same comparison earlier in the year too. Shuey tidied up his disposal by the end of his career to the point where it was borderline elite but his 1 wood was still always bursting out of stoppage and overlap run in the middle. Prime Shuey would be a perfect fit for our midfield.

 

[zeeCFC]

If this guy can play more midfield minutes then he's probably exactly what we want in a draftee.

Defensive minded quick player with a great kick. If we coupled him in the midfield with Jagga or Draper it would be a great compliment to Cripps/George/Walsh/Cerra

 

[ray8182]

That also have great tanks and defend? I can't think of many, if any at all.

Dow was a one way clearance machine in juniors and even though he ended up a bust he was still exactly what we drafted in the end. Could still get clearances at AFL level but he couldn't defend to save himself and still struggled to find the ball outside of stoppage.

I do find it fascinating reading comments about players I watched a lot of this year though, often without much thought (given it seemed highly unlikely we'd have any chance at getting them). When watching the champs and some of the SANFL games I actually though Drapers kicking skills in space were one of his best traits outside the speed, seemed to weight the ball beautifully to leading players and just always seemed to make good decisions along with Ben who was more the grunt ball winner who was dishing it to him. Perhaps it just seemed a standout next to Ben's helicopters inside 50 but unless FOS can start finding more of the footy and Lalor can get his body right I'd still have him number 1.

Jagga has grown on me more from going back over his highlights (as its mostly just his most damaging disposals) but watching him this year I remember I consistently found myself thinking he'd had a fairly low impact game despite the huge numbers. Just remember thinking he was Matt Crouch mixed with Nick Daicos... I think a lot of his development is dependant on his body - Getting a bit more power in his kicks would make a huge difference for him.

I do wonder how different my evaluation of the top end of the draft would have been if I knew they were going to be in our mix on draft night.

I don’t have a problem with drapers kicking either. For mine it’s his handballing. He’s not a great handball under pressure in stoppages. Too many times he chooses wrong option or doesn’t handball to advantage of receiver. This is where jagga is much better.

Makes me think Draper would be best used as a first receiver around stoppages. Give him just a little bit of space to work with when receiving the ball and he can make anyone look like a fool with his footwork and breakaway.


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