Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[SirSanchez]

How is it a realistic possibility?? Seriously?

Austin did all that work to trade up to pick 3 to get one of the best kids in draft!!!! We are taking it to the draft

If it’s an overs offer in our favour the club would seriously consider it.
This is obviously just my opinion.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

Crows interviewing FOS on Friday.

Thinking is Lalor will go to the Tigers at 1, we will take Draper at 3 and 2 is a mystery as North highly likely to trade it

 

[Yubby]

Given we've been talking a lot about Langford's speed i thought i'd re-post this from a few weeks back.

Langford finished 8th overall in the 2km time trial with a time of 6:24. It's not the quickest time but for relativity to other draftees Sam Walsh

18

Sam Walsh

Age

24

Ht

184cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.1

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

3.4

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.2

5star

K

15.4

5star

HB

10.8

5star

M

6.0

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

4.8

5star

came 3rd in his year at 6:07 which was only 17 seconds faster. Nick Daicos came 1st in his year at 6:32 which is slower than Langford.

So Langford is between those two in terms of speed and gut running which is pretty good in my opinion. Yes he may not have great acceleration but in most of the footage, rarely do you see him get chased down or caught when he is running with the ball. When he's up and motoring i think his speed is fine and based on his 2km it looks like he is willing to push himself to the next content pretty well. And if for some reason we did take him, i'm sure Crippa would be in his ear about getting a running coach after season 1 like he did once upon a time.

 

[NYCFC]

Given we've been talking a lot about Langford's speed i thought i'd re-post this from a few weeks back.

Langford finished 8th overall in the 2km time trial with a time of 6:24. It's not the quickest time but for relativity to other draftees Sam Walsh came 3rd in his year at 6:07 which was only 17 seconds faster. Nick Daicos came 1st in his year at 6:32 which is slower than Langford.

So Langford is between those two in terms of speed and gut running which is pretty good in my opinion. Yes he may not have great acceleration but in most of the footage, rarely do you see him get chased down or caught when he is running with the ball. When he's up and motoring i think his speed is fine and based on his 2km it looks like he is willing to push himself to the next content pretty well. And if for some reason we did take him, i'm sure Crippa would be in his ear about getting a running coach after season 1 like he did once upon a time.

2k time trial isn't speed. It's endurance.

 

[katmanblue]

Okay I’m off Harvey and on to Lalor - or is he no good too

The Ying,

Okay I am back on Langford

And the Yang.


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[katmanblue]

We are selecting, not Draper so not sure what Gibbsy’s input has anything to do with it

Get in his ear early to request a trade asap.

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[Matty411]

The last time we went with an obsessive 'fast mid' focusing on speed out of the contest above other things... well, it didn't work out so well. In saying that, Draper is not Dow.

 

[katmanblue]

I don't think he really emphasised anyone
(and I was looking desperately hard for a hint ). If he did it must have been very subtle as I just rewatched and again got nothing.

Cal loves Langford and probably picks him if it was his selection. Might be picking up some of that love.

Could be wrong but that's my perception.

Blink, and you'll miss it.

Especially if it isn't there.

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[katmanblue]

The last time we went with an obsessive 'fast mid' focusing on speed out of the contest above other things... well, it didn't work out so well. In saying that, Draper is not Dow.

Agreed. I'd rather pin point ball use.

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[SkyhorseTamer]

2k time trial isn't speed. It's endurance.

Uhh. No. It's speed. 2km is not endurance for an AFL athlete. It's how long can you maintain a high pace for. An endurance at speed test. 15km++ is endurance...

 

[The Return of the Paf]

If it’s an overs offer in our favour the club would seriously consider it.
This is obviously just my opinion.

This 'overs' thing means different things to different people. In the end there are simply trades that should have been made and others that should have been left alone. You can't say that our trade period wasn't full of mixed messages but people are more focused on results than the intention.

I can't help but think we are fixated too much on that one player each year that will make all the difference and it is like that almost every year. The rest are just 'options'. As it stands, if Melbourne or the 'Aints came a knocking, I wouldn't hesitate. Is that 'overs' or 'unders'?

 

[ForYouBlue]

Speed might not be critical on average but I'd argue for us it's burst speed that we need. Our current centre bounces allows Oppo mids too much ease in motoring forward because we don't have anyone inside able to pressure the clearance. This may well be structure, however it's been a chronic problem so regardless it's cause it needs to be fixed. I feel very lucky to have pick 3, as I feel like I'll be stoked no matter what, but I think Draper helps us a lot with the above point, given his burst and work ethic.

 

[Aphrodite]

No longer worried about pick 3, too busy drinking the Cripps Shiraz.

Bargain at $199 a bottle!

 

[bradfisher14]

I'm not sure where this idea that Langford is an elite ball user has come from. What I've seen so far is that he is definitely above average, but his highlights package makes him look better than he actually is. The highlights show that he can pull off amazing kicks at times, but this isn't the full picture of his ability IMHO.

 

[HarryFlashman]

After weeks of watching this all go around in circles I’ve settled on my pick. I’m happy to slip back a couple picks if the opportunity arises & we can get something for it (F3, package that with our other future pick - yes I know we would need the AFLs approval - and get a early ish 2nd round this draft).
We take - whoever!
At this point I don’t care, all of them have potential & can seriously play, only thing I’m hoping for is the kid stays fit.

That’s it, whoever we get manages to stay injury free.

It’s way to hard to split them, especially given the uncertainty of who goes at what pick before us.

Just hoping the kid has the opportunity to have a good crack at it, vote is still for FOS thou

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Speed might not be critical on average but I'd argue for us it's burst speed that we need. Our current centre bounces allows Oppo mids too much ease in motoring forward because we don't have anyone inside able to pressure the clearance. This may well be structure, however it's been a chronic problem so regardless it's cause it needs to be fixed. I feel very lucky to have pick 3, as I feel like I'll be stoked no matter what, but I think Draper helps us a lot with the above point, given his burst and work ethic.

Smarts over burst

Warner made Kennedy look stupid. Warner Started his defensive side of centre bounce. Kennedy on him but standing attacking side (idiot) and Warner not only reads the play faster he doesn't give 2 ****s about defending. I don't care if you're usain you aren't keeping up after a push off. Kennedy never adjusted. Just kept doing the same thing.

Same with Walsh vs daicos. Daicos 'burst' out and kicked the winning goal. He's not faster than Walsh. Walsh ball watched and left his man.

Speed comes from flankers and I agree. We look too slow.there. Overlap runners aren't good. But a gun like Langford can bring 2023 Walsh back. Starting at half forward being a first receiving running expert and our stoppage game goes up exponentially too. Your halfs forward and back need to provide more drive and speed. Run downs from behind happened in 2023. When fog and co would collapse down and stop backwards to go forwards exits from stoppage etc. When you pressure that side with smart half forwards your ball winners can set up a bit more specifically - instead of covering every possibility. And your speed looks far better overall.

I just want to see Walsh running again. Not getting crushed inside. Anything to take him 1 link in the chain away from stoppages a bit more often.

 

[macky99]

This 'overs' thing means different things to different people. In the end there are simply trades that should have been made and others that should have been left alone. You can't say that our trade period wasn't full of mixed messages but people are more focused on results than the intention.

I can't help but think we are fixated too much on that one player each year that will make all the difference and it is like that almost every year. The rest are just 'options'. As it stands, if Melbourne or the 'Aints came a knocking, I wouldn't hesitate. Is that 'overs' or 'unders'?

Saints & Melbourne are in a excellent spot to get two quality kids, don't see them trading up for one pick vs two.

Austin has done firstly all the work on the trades to get to pick 3 and now all the due diligence on 4-5 players.

He didn't trade up for one player, he knew he would have a choice of 2-3 quality options, l reckon there is close to zero chance of this being traded back.

 

[Opium]

2k time trial isn't speed. It's endurance.

Anything close to 6 min to run 2000 metres is bloody quick

 

[BlueTongue]

After weeks of watching this all go around in circles I’ve settled on my pick. I’m happy to slip back a couple picks if the opportunity arises & we can get something for it (F3, package that with our other future pick - yes I know we would need the AFLs approval - and get a early ish 2nd round this draft).
We take - whoever!
At this point I don’t care, all of them have potential & can seriously play, only thing I’m hoping for is the kid stays fit.

That’s it, whoever we get manages to stay injury free.

It’s way to hard to split them, especially given the uncertainty of who goes at what pick before us.

Just hoping the kid has the opportunity to have a good crack at it, vote is still for FOS thou

You've been jaded by the BF Draft Circus!

There seems to be a bit of division around who we think Austin will choose, opinion on who we think is a good option at #3, outright wishing, and my personal favorite - the dead certains!

Those calling out certainties may need to brace themselves...

But you are ultimately right, whomever we get will be a good choice in the Top5, so i won't be disappointed.

 

[ForYouBlue]

Smarts over burst

Warner made Kennedy look stupid. Warner Started his defensive side of centre bounce. Kennedy on him but standing attacking side (idiot) and Warner not only reads the play faster he doesn't give 2 ****s about defending. I don't care if you're usain you aren't keeping up after a push off. Kennedy never adjusted. Just kept doing the same thing.

Same with Walsh vs daicos. Daicos 'burst' out and kicked the winning goal. He's not faster than Walsh. Walsh ball watched and left his man.

Speed comes from flankers and I agree. We look too slow.there. Overlap runners aren't good. But a gun like Langford can bring 2023 Walsh back. Starting at half forward being a first receiving running expert and our stoppage game goes up exponentially too. Your halfs forward and back need to provide more drive and speed. Run downs from behind happened in 2023. When fog and co would collapse down and stop backwards to go forwards exits from stoppage etc. When you pressure that side with smart half forwards your ball winners can set up a bit more specifically - instead of covering every possibility. And your speed looks far better overall.

I just want to see Walsh running again. Not getting crushed inside. Anything to take him 1 link in the chain away from stoppages a bit more often.

Wonderful thoughts here. I understand there are many at factors at play, though to my point of it being chronic, we don't have the luxury of improving all of the factors so my suggestion was speed would be a fast and loose attempt to fix it in the short term. In your scenario for example, whilst I agree no one would catch that burst regardless of speed, a team mate with more pace would at least increase the chances of pressure on the kick i50 if not stop the clearance.

Agree with you regard Walsh, hate seeing him wear every Oppo mid as a backpack this year.

Also agree with you regarding flankers.

 

[Tjblues]

Uhh. No. It's speed. 2km is not endurance for an AFL athlete. It's how long can you maintain a high pace for. An endurance at speed test. 15km++ is endurance...

Sorry this is just wrong.

2km testing measures aerobic power. These guys ran a 2km in sub 6:30, which is elite.

To run a 6:30 2km, you need to cover 100m in around 19.5 or 20 seconds. I was never a quick runner but I can break 14 seconds for 100m.

It’s an indicator that these guys are great athletes, and are possibly less likely to lose their burst/speed as the game goes on, but it’s not an indicator of their speed at all

 

[HarryFlashman]

You've been jaded by the BF Draft Circus!

There seems to be a bit of division around who we think Austin will choose, opinion on who we think is a good option at #3, outright wishing, and my personal favorite - the dead certains!

Those calling out certainties may need to brace themselves...

But you are ultimately right, whomever we get will be a good choice in the Top5, so i won't be disappointed.

Yep, the circus has definitely fatigued me.

The reality is that a couple will become stars, most will be good players, 1 is likely not to perform as hoped & 1 will have injury issues (likely the one that doesn’t perform as hoped).

Given that you can’t even form a consensus on past drafts and who’s the best pick after 100,150,200+ games it’s a little silly to get to emotionally attached to a player at our pick.

New question - which player in the top 10 will be the first to get reported? & who will be the 1st to give away a 50 for umpire dissent?

FOS for dissent - I can see him coming out with a “FFS” and getting pinged

Langford for the week - can see him “being late to a contest/making them earn it” or dumping someone just a touch to hard.

 

[COACH25]

What injury for Cerra resulted in him getting big and lumbering?

Why is Langford more of a forward then a mid, I keep seeing him extracting the ball or taking marks in the middle and kicking to the advantage of forwards, was he playing as a high half forward??

He grew up as a forward moved into midfield later on, Is a very very good forward half player. Gets lots of inside 50s

 

[SirSanchez]

This 'overs' thing means different things to different people. In the end there are simply trades that should have been made and others that should have been left alone. You can't say that our trade period wasn't full of mixed messages but people are more focused on results than the intention.

I can't help but think we are fixated too much on that one player each year that will make all the difference and it is like that almost every year. The rest are just 'options'. As it stands, if Melbourne or the 'Aints came a knocking, I wouldn't hesitate. Is that 'overs' or 'unders'?

I agree on the fixation. But as supporters we cant help but sometimes get wrapped up in the emotion and hope of it all and that one gun player being the difference.
In terms of overs or under on trades.
I’d simply say if we are getting the better end of the deal, that’s overs in my book. If it’s a no brainer for us it’s overs.
Unders is where you have to think twice about doing the deal or we feel we’re getting the short end of the stick.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Uhh. No. It's speed. 2km is not endurance for an AFL athlete. It's how long can you maintain a high pace for. An endurance at speed test. 15km++ is endurance...

High pace isn’t speed either. O Hollands never looks fast in a game even though he can run a fast 2km. Langford’s pace issue will always be there, it won’t stop him being a good player but let’s not pretend like it isn’t an issue