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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Analysis 2024 National Draft
- Thread starter WalshistheGOAT
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You kinda just contradicted yourself - “possibly less likely to lose burst/speed” but that’s “not an indicator of their speed” ?
Yeah, it is, u have to be pretty quick to post an elite 2km. The ability to back up and repeat a quick run is a massive indicator of speed.
Being able to go at 85-90% repeatedly at a very good pace = quick.
Yes they won’t be as quick as a super high fast twitch sprinter, but they also fatigue quickly which ends up being “slow” on the next effort
Draper is awesome offensively and defends with intent, massive difference
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IMHO this is what we need more than speed, but I guess you need to get hands on the ball first
I'm definitely getting more comfortable with either of the top five the closer we get. I'm least sold on Lalor and FOS for different reasons, but can make cases for every player (including Jagga, Draper and Langford) being a 250 game player for us.
Bring on the draft.
Bring on the draft.
CrippaTheGoat9
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For the Draper fans
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That’s like calling Ed Curnow quick.
any other Midfielders in the draft with 20+ possession average who can rest forward and has better disposal?? and is not Ashcroft
I will declare I will be happy with any of the Top 5 - Lalor, FOS, Smith, Draper or Langford. But BigFooty would be boring if we didn’t want to debate
My criteria for the Pick 3 selection is disposal quality, ability to play forward, ability to create separation (speed and/or evasiveness), consistency/possession count and endurance (2 way running)
So my vote is still Langford
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The discussion around 2km time trials and speed etc is a bit irrelevant here anyway. No draftee in discussion for pick 3 posted an elite 2km time.
Cottrell
Binns
Ollie
Elijah
Walsh
Charlie
Those are players that run "elite" 2km times. None would be classified as genuinely fast, they're just aerobic freaks.
A mid 6min time is fairly average for draftees these days. Anything around 6 is elite and below 6 is the top of the top end.
Cottrell
Binns
Ollie
Elijah
Walsh
Charlie
Those are players that run "elite" 2km times. None would be classified as genuinely fast, they're just aerobic freaks.
A mid 6min time is fairly average for draftees these days. Anything around 6 is elite and below 6 is the top of the top end.
While there is an element of 'speed' in a 2km time trial, that 'speed' has nothing to do with speed across the ground or out of the contest in a 2m, 5m, 10m, 20m scenario like what we're talking about breaking away from contest or transitioning through the midfield at AFL level. That is what we lack at AFL level, not speed over distance - as pointed out above Walsh is very quick over 2km but you wouldn't say he has 'speed' for the purpose of an AFL midfielder.
For example, 2kms at 6minutes 30 is 5.2m per second. whereas a 20m sprint at 2.8 seconds or so is 7.2m per second, that's a 40% difference and you're really talking about completely different things. Plus the 20m time you have to account for time off the block, the difference in top speed over 20m versus 2km is likely 3-4x magnitude. Completely different things.
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Well it is for a regular person.
For context when I was 20yo I could run 6.15ks for 10k, because I was a middle/long distance runner.
But I was absolutely hopeless over 100/200m, let alone 20m.
I had endurance/ speed endurance, but not speed.
Not the kind of speed we’re talking about when we say we need a midfielder with speed.
A 6 min 2000m just means you have good endurance.
I think we spoke ourselves into thinking Dow had stand out speed. Looking back at his draft highlights, he has some speed but it's the same kind of speed you would see in today's crop from players like Jagga or FOS. I.e decently fast but not a difference maker. His highlights showed none of the burst from stoppage that Draper has. We got sucked into Dow on overvalued information, I don't think it's the same with Draper - as evident in his consistent high level performances at State level and Senior football in the SANFL.
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Gotta be honest, as a runner myself below 6 like 5:50s isn’t that impressive. I would’ve thought there’d be way more in the cotts category than their actually are, but obviously have to factor that it’s not just running but putting on muscle.
The times this year were pretty crap if I’m honest but I don’t know what the testing was like that day which I believe plays a big factor
So reporting only the flight to SA where he's publicly noticed, ...not reporting the drive to Mount Martha then?
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It sounds like we’re down to a group of 5. I hope (sounds like they are) our recruiters are trying to figure out who is the most determined, aggressive, hungriest out of them and picks that one.
CrippaTheGoat9
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Drive to Mount Martha to speak with Langford?
Draper is a better kick then Dow, wins more of the ball then Dow, defends better then Dow, has a better tank then Dow and is actually faster than Dow. So quite a few differences.
Draper is definitely the most aggressive of the guys we're considering, at the ball and defensively. I reckon Voss would love the way he plays.
4flagsin5yrs
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Draper and Dow world's apart....
CrippaTheGoat9
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I still have a feeling we won’t be taking him and we have others ahead of Sid. Just my personal opinion (Btw I’d love if Draper is our guy)
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If Dow could defend and had slightly more endurance he would be a decent player.
The difference between making it and not are not always big.
Being good defensively plays a big part in a players floor imo.
4flagsin5yrs
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100%.
Personally, reckon Draper is a better fit for our current needs than FOS or Smith, for example.
Brings next level intensity and attack on the ball.
And would be ready to play Rd 1. And contribute...
Also, consider his defensive instincts are a level above any of the other top 3 candidates....
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Drapers straight line speed and intensity is the biggest contrast to Dow.
Drapers attack on the loose ball and intensity defending stands out.
4flagsin5yrs
Premiership Player
Get Langford in 2 or 3 years....
Fair enough. I don't necessarily think we are going to take him either but would not be disappointed. Will be interesting.
Blue and Silver
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I feel like people are using the word "Pace" wrong.
Pace is the speed over distance.
Acceleration is what most of you seem to mean, which is the rate of increase.
Draper has very good acceleration (or Burst)
Langford has very good pace, speed maintained over a distance.
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Pace is the speed over distance.
Acceleration is what most of you seem to mean, which is the rate of increase.
Draper has very good acceleration (or Burst)
Langford has very good pace, speed maintained over a distance.
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I think something to remind ourselves here is that with these top 3, 4, 5 picks is that we're highlighting weaknesses that are not really big weaknesses. We're talking about a difference of 7.5 out of 10 vs 8.5 out of ten etc.
If, for example, Draper was a horrid kick then he'd be nowhere near the top 5. It's not bad, but compared to the others around him in the top 3/5, it's potentially a weakness. With this group you're splitting hairs.
It's a relative comparison and not necessarily a glaring flaw in their games that's going to be a hinderance to our team or their output as a player. No one inside the top of this group is outright bad at anything. If they were, they'd not be rated there.
If, for example, Draper was a horrid kick then he'd be nowhere near the top 5. It's not bad, but compared to the others around him in the top 3/5, it's potentially a weakness. With this group you're splitting hairs.
It's a relative comparison and not necessarily a glaring flaw in their games that's going to be a hinderance to our team or their output as a player. No one inside the top of this group is outright bad at anything. If they were, they'd not be rated there.
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