Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Lalor definitely going at pick 1, MD at work does a lot of stuff at the tiges including MCing events and has very very good connections. Been told Lalor is the man


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[HarryFlashman]

thanks? And modern research shows 2km uses a mix of both systems. Biased towards aerobic. Cheers for that.

And for all of that - it all means exactly **** all if the decision to go isn’t made quick enough/have the spatial awareness of what’s around you & don’t have the ball/read the play opening up.

It’s bloody hard to measure what makes a good player - stats/testing is often misleading.

Based on testing who would of ever drafted Greg Williams?

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Let's not pretend it is an issue too...

Brions midfield doesn't have 'striker' mid. Pies premiership didn't either. West coast's didn't really Shuey was a gun but not a 'speed demon'. Hawks were undeniably slow, tigers speed came from ball movement and FLANKERS. Cotchin prestia Grigg etc. Dusty wasn't overly 'fast'. Just bloody powerful.

Even the current hawks team who everyone thinks is 'fast' has a bloody slow midfield group lol.

zzzzzzzz

Ollie is a winger/ flanker. If you want to pick things apart Ive said now repeatedly that flankers are where you need that breakaway speed - Langford isn't a flanker.... Apply some context.

Overlap running and good kicking puts speed into the game.

Walsh moving more outside improves overlap running immensely. Langford allows that AND massively improves kicking and distribution skills.

Firstly agility is probably as important as speed.
What players would Langford, Cerra, Hewett and Cripps be quicker then at the Lions? I’d say all their group is quicker than ours even though they aren’t overly fast.
Cotchin was probably quicker then all our mids, Prestia was fast.
Crisp and Daicos were quicker than all our mids.
As you say, Shuey is quick, Yeo is quick.

Hawthorn I’ll agree with you on. They generate pace off the flanks. Problem is if we take B Campo, L Campo, Langford and a player at 66 in the draft then we have no assets left to address this lack of pace. Next year our first pick might be in the 30’s. It’s our only decent asset we hold for the next two years to address our speed and KPD issue.

 

[Triniboy]

Unfortunately it seems FOS is going at 2 whether it’s to norf or Adelaide trading up to get him.

Leaves 2 (Draper or Langford)
For me I’d rather Langford.
I don’t think Draper changes us to a ‘pacy’ team.

It’s not a secret that our midfield has no issue getting hands to the ball first. The big issue is the mid/forward connection and the entries inside 5@.

Langford is this to a tee and is an elite user and will be great service to H/charlie/SOS.

IMO him/FOS have easily have the greatest upside.

Langford has Bont written all over him. Even tho his slow I’ve never seen him get caught, has tons of time like pendles and uses it like Bont. He won’t be a 30 touch player (which we don’t need as all the other mids do this) but he’ll get 20-25 touches with 15 scores involvements and can push forward dangerously also. Can impact instantly.

For pace Lord looks like his coming on and the club rate him highly. Also Chuck fog partly on the ball and they add pace. We don’t have one good user out of the midfield.

Cripps has also become wayyyh faster and I’m sure will be working with Langford side by side with a running coach to increase his burst from stoppage.


Hoping Harvey is our guy if FOS/lalor off the board

completely agree what you say about Langford...Cripps initial pace/disposal (by foot) has improved in the past two seasons however our other mids turn the pill over too often and costs us.
Bo Allan is similar...for those who think he's not capable in the mid-field...he played thru the middle in Peel Thunders grand final win against mature body players.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Let's not pretend it is an issue too...

Brions midfield doesn't have 'striker' mid. Pies premiership didn't either. West coast's didn't really Shuey was a gun but not a 'speed demon'. Hawks were undeniably slow, tigers speed came from ball movement and FLANKERS. Cotchin prestia Grigg etc. Dusty wasn't overly 'fast'. Just bloody powerful.

Even the current hawks team who everyone thinks is 'fast' has a bloody slow midfield group lol.

zzzzzzzz

Ollie is a winger/ flanker. If you want to pick things apart Ive said now repeatedly that flankers are where you need that breakaway speed - Langford isn't a flanker.... Apply some context.

Overlap running and good kicking puts speed into the game.

Walsh moving more outside improves overlap running immensely. Langford allows that AND massively improves kicking and distribution skills.

Brions had McCluggage, Bailey and Rayner who all rotate on ball frequently, are highly damaging forward of centre and kick goals for fun.

Pies had Degoey, NDaicos and JDaicos. Crisp too if you count him.

WCE had Shuey and Yeo.

Hawks won flags 10 years ago, completely irrelevant to the conversation. Games not even remotely the same.

Richmond had Dusty, Bolton and Edwards who all played significant minutes through the midfield.

Nothing uve written here is based in truth, the Langford blinders are a bit out of control.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Your last paragraph is wrong. Many people - like Usain himself - are not necessarily quick in the first 20 but continuously build speed and hit their top speeds around 60m. So the speed difference is not a nice rule that says the gap just gets bigger as you go.

It's fine to say "yep I was wrong" and move on. There's no need to try and nit pick. While yes you do get faster over the 30-50m range in a sprint. You're still moving a lot fast over 20m than you are in a 2km run. Just take the L man. 2km time trial has nothing to do with speed in the context of what we're talking about.

 

[ianh]

Kevin Sheehan’s 2024 Telstra AFL Draft top 40 prospects

AFL Talent Ambassador Kevin Sheehan has revealed his top 40 prospects for the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

See he has Ben C in the 40, and has Mraz in there but not O'Farrell, pity he doesn't rank them in order.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Skills are similar - burst from pack with
kicking into a general area with loopy kicks . That’s my biggest issue - might not be Dow 2.0 but we need users as well as pace.

Skills are not similar at all. The Dow talk is so lazy and derivative.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

It's fine to say "yep I was wrong" and move on. There's no need to try and nit pick. While yes you do get faster over the 30-50m range in a sprint. You're still moving a lot fast over 20m than you are in a 2km run. Just take the L man. 2km time trial has nothing to do with speed int he context of what we're talking about.

Ollie and Elijah are testament that u can blitz a 2km time trial and still be 'slow'.

Also Usain Bolt would still absolutely annihilate 99% of people over 20m.

These arguments are truly bizarre.

 

[ianh]

And for all of that - it all means exactly **** all if the decision to go isn’t made quick enough/have the spatial awareness of what’s around you & don’t have the ball/read the play opening up.

It’s bloody hard to measure what makes a good player - stats/testing is often misleading.

Based on testing who would of ever drafted Greg Williams?

Greg Williams would have, otherwise not many.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Let's not pretend it is an issue too...

Brions midfield doesn't have 'striker' mid. Pies premiership didn't either. West coast's didn't really Shuey was a gun but not a 'speed demon'. Hawks were undeniably slow, tigers speed came from ball movement and FLANKERS. Cotchin prestia Grigg etc. Dusty wasn't overly 'fast'. Just bloody powerful.

Even the current hawks team who everyone thinks is 'fast' has a bloody slow midfield group lol.

zzzzzzzz

Ollie is a winger/ flanker. If you want to pick things apart Ive said now repeatedly that flankers are where you need that breakaway speed - Langford isn't a flanker.... Apply some context.

Overlap running and good kicking puts speed into the game.

Walsh moving more outside improves overlap running immensely. Langford allows that AND massively improves kicking and distribution skills.

Weird how you seem to understand what 'speed' we're talking about now in this context.

For clarity, when you're talking about the current Hawks midfield being "slow" are you talking over 2km or short distances. Just so I understand?

 

[BluStreak]

everyone is going on about Drapers defense but Jagga's highlights show him doing the same. Why isn't his defense efforts being talked about?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

everyone is going on about Drapers defense but Jagga's highlights show him doing the same. Why isn't his defense efforts being talked about?

I think mostly due to Jaggas frame and size. He's incredibly slight even for an 18 year old.

If he puts on some size and can get up into that 80-85kg range I could see him being the clear best in the draft, but I'm not sure how capable he'll be with his body.

 

[BluStreak]

hey may or may not put on those KGs but if he can put strength into his body (which a professional outfit like Carlton) then even with less muscular looking arms he can have the ability to stick tackles. Think Lappin, Fletcher

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

For the Draper fans

As I said Adelaide are so confident the Blues will take Draper at 3 they are belatedly meeting FOS on Friday in Koroit

 

[HarryFlashman]

hey may or may not put on those KGs but if he can put strength into his body (which a professional outfit like Carlton) then even with less muscular looking arms he can have the ability to stick tackles. Think Lappin, Fletcher

Pound for pound the strongest sportsmen going around are rock climbers - those guys are built like whippets but insanely strong.
Would love to know how Jagga measures up for strength

 

[Jimmae]

The good news is that I’m hearing there’s a decent chance St Kilda won’t have pick 32 come draft night.

Cole and Hofmann rising?

Uhh. No. It's speed. 2km is not endurance for an AFL athlete. It's how long can you maintain a high pace for. An endurance at speed test. 15km++ is endurance...

thanks? And modern research shows 2km uses a mix of both systems. Biased towards aerobic. Cheers for that.

This is where I think the discussion keeps stumbling over, and it comes down to how the time trial is being completed by the athlete, because 6:20 is probably the threshold where if your technique is good you never actually need to have a 'kick' at the end of the run.

If they're being competitive, yes that will come to the fore, but you'd need the tape of the trial to confirm that. Assuming minimal wind conditions on the day (and I assume it's run on Etihad so there's virtually none and a quick track), they barely need to touch anaerobic systems if they're in good shape.

It's really a mickey mouse trial for a good aerobic athlete.

You kinda just contradicted yourself - “possibly less likely to lose burst/speed” but that’s “not an indicator of their speed” ?
Yeah, it is, u have to be pretty quick to post an elite 2km. The ability to back up and repeat a quick run is a massive indicator of speed.
Being able to go at 85-90% repeatedly at a very good pace = quick.
Yes they won’t be as quick as a super high fast twitch sprinter, but they also fatigue quickly which ends up being “slow” on the next effort

But that's the thing, it's not 85-90% through time trial results, given they're probably putting in a 12-12.5s 100m sprint, it's more like 60%.

That being said - and this has already been touched on - 100m sprint times aren't particularly useful for the AFL, and scouts will be more interested in 5/10/20/40m timings, and how consistent they are, and how much that appears in footage.

The discussion around 2km time trials and speed etc is a bit irrelevant here anyway. No draftee in discussion for pick 3 posted an elite 2km time.

Cottrell
Binns
Ollie
Elijah
Walsh
Charlie

Those are players that run "elite" 2km times. None would be classified as genuinely fast, they're just aerobic freaks.

A mid 6min time is fairly average for draftees these days. Anything around 6 is elite and below 6 is the top of the top end.

You're generally right, but Cottrell is properly quick. Ollie may be as well, but he gases himself every game, which is why I like the idea of him off HB. He might build up his tank more over the next couple of years though.

That’s like calling Ed Curnow quick.

Ed was another who was actually really quick but then put on a bit of muscle, but more importantly tracked the entire field like few others. Carrazzo another like this.

I've seen some toe out of Walsh at times, but I still doubt his maximum speed is able to reach the same tier.

Gotta be honest, as a runner myself below 6 like 5:50s isn’t that impressive. I would’ve thought there’d be way more in the cotts category than their actually are, but obviously have to factor that it’s not just running but putting on muscle.

The times this year were pretty crap if I’m honest but I don’t know what the testing was like that day which I believe plays a big factor

Yup, so getting sub-6 is considered extremely impressive, and getting a 100m below 12 is well regarded also.

Pick 3 gets us into the elite range, but there's never a guarantee. Whilst I am not opposed to seeing what the market would bring I think it would probably have to be someone who wanted pick 3 badly to grab the particular player they wanted, and we would have to get something better than what we gave up to get pick 3 or what is the point? What that something better might be is the question. A slight slide down the order could still get us in the range of one of the gun mid options, especially if North grab Tauru at 2. Adelaide if they feared we would grab their target, through to St Kilda's 8 or 9 at the latest. But that only gives us a handful of clubs to deal with. Or we go multiple 1st rounders but that's even fewer clubs, both in the sense that Adelaide only have 1 early pick and in the sense that those who do have multiple first rounders are largely not going to want to part with more than 1 of them. Certainly no-one has come hard enough at pick 2 (yet) to entice North. Alternatively we have to look at futures coming into the equation and/or more than 2 picks, but any such combination is likely at best to have one pick at the pointy end. Or we move up to pick 2, but again what would North want to do that?

I think we can turn 3 and 38 into Smillie and Hotton, which I would do. If Hotton interest is even cooler, we could turn 3 and 38 and some future swaps - or with AFL approval, sending a future 2nd out the door - into Smillie, Hotton, and Hynes.

If Jagga is actually going to be there at 6 instead, then it can be Jagga, Hotton, and Hynes. I think that would be an amazing outcome for our list in the short, medium, and long term.

I think mostly due to Jaggas frame and size. He's incredibly slight even for an 18 year old.

If he puts on some size and can get up into that 80-85kg range I could see him being the clear best in the draft, but I'm not sure how capable he'll be with his body.

75 kgs would be a good outcome for Jagga, who I think can pick up a bit of anaerobic capacity and be outside-leaning at the next level.

 

[Jimmae]

As I said Adelaide are so confident the Blues will take Draper at 3 they are belatedly meeting FOS on Friday in Koroit

Given the talk of Adelaide trading up to 2, they would have every reason to suddenly put more work in FOS.

Pound for pound the strongest sportsmen going around are rock climbers - those guys are built like whippets but insanely strong.
Would love to know how Jagga measures up for strength

That's about balancing their weight vs their strength, as they have to haul themselves up a cliff.

Just another reminder that it's important to train functionally for your sport/pursuit. People who go to the gym purely for aesthetics or extremely basic KPIs wind up looking silly if they don't peel back after a while.

 

[Matty411]

Don't fully understand how it's an arm wrestle. Clubs aren't competing for his signature. He goes where he's picked....

Right? The 'arm wrestle' comment might've been inferring the Crows looking to get up to 2 (widely speculated) to beat us to him.

As I said Adelaide are so confident the Blues will take Draper at 3 they are belatedly meeting FOS on Friday in Koroit

So, it appears like (as at today), the options are:
1. Richmond - Lalor
2. North - Tauru
3. Carlton - Draper/FOS (unsure on order)
4. Adelaide - FOS/Draper

OR

1. Richmond - Lalor
2. Crows (via trade) - Draper
3. Carlton - FOS
4. North - Tauru

Someone is going to get a steallll with Jagga and it makes me sad.

 

[HarryFlashman]

Given the talk of Adelaide trading up to 2, they would have every reason to suddenly put more work in FOS.

That's about balancing their weight vs their strength, as they have to haul themselves up a cliff.

Just another reminder that it's important to train functionally for your sport/pursuit. People who go to the gym purely for aesthetics or extremely basic KPIs wind up looking silly if they don't peel back after a while.

Point i was making is that u don’t need to be “big” to be “strong”.
Some people are naturally stronger than others, regardless of body type.

 

[Jimmae]

Point i was making is that u don’t need to be “big” to be “strong”.
Some people are naturally stronger than others, regardless of body type.

I would say that's partially true, and what's heavily understated is how much epigenetics can be a factor if you can adjust your diet and lifestyle around what you're trying to do.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Cole and Hofmann rising?


This is where I think the discussion keeps stumbling over, and it comes down to how the time trial is being completed by the athlete, because 6:20 is probably the threshold where if your technique is good you never actually need to have a 'kick' at the end of the run.

If they're being competitive, yes that will come to the fore, but you'd need the tape of the trial to confirm that. Assuming minimal wind conditions on the day (and I assume it's run on Etihad so there's virtually none and a quick track), they barely need to touch anaerobic systems if they're in good shape.

It's really a mickey mouse trial for a good aerobic athlete.

But that's the thing, it's not 85-90% through time trial results, given they're probably putting in a 12-12.5s 100m sprint, it's more like 60%.

That being said - and this has already been touched on - 100m sprint times aren't particularly useful for the AFL, and scouts will be more interested in 5/10/20/40m timings, and how consistent they are, and how much that appears in footage.

You're generally right, but Cottrell is properly quick. Ollie may be as well, but he gases himself every game, which is why I like the idea of him off HB. He might build up his tank more over the next couple of years though.

Ed was another who was actually really quick but then put on a bit of muscle, but more importantly tracked the entire field like few others. Carrazzo another like this.

I've seen some toe out of Walsh at times, but I still doubt his maximum speed is able to reach the same tier.

Yup, so getting sub-6 is considered extremely impressive, and getting a 100m below 12 is well regarded also.

I think we can turn 3 and 38 into Smillie and Hotton, which I would do. If Hotton interest is even cooler, we could turn 3 and 38 and some future swaps - or with AFL approval, sending a future 2nd out the door - into Smillie, Hotton, and Hynes.

If Jagga is actually going to be there at 6 instead, then it can be Jagga, Hotton, and Hynes. I think that would be an amazing outcome for our list in the short, medium, and long term.

75 kgs would be a good outcome for Jagga, who I think can pick up a bit of anaerobic capacity and be outside-leaning at the next level.

Very interested in your love for Hotton Jimmae. I just cannot get excited about a player that missed their final U18 year.
When has it ever worked out?

You obviously love Kemp (given your profile picture) and I like him too, but I think if anything he's shown he was likely fairly rated around his late First Round selection point, or argubaly is performing slightly worse than we would of liked from that position. It's not like he is performing like a Top 5 pick and we got him for a steal due to his injury.

I'd be interested if you can point to any examples where a player who missed their final U18 season has gone on to smash it AFL level in that kind of first round selection space?

Maybe for late picks but I feel you never get the value you think you're getting taking a player whose slid due to injury. That final year is so important in development and hitting the ground running at AFL level. It's one of the contirbuting factors to why i'm also off on Finn Osullivan, just don't trust the body of work he's been able to put together this season.

 

[Jimmae]

Very interested in your love for Hotton Jimmae. I just cannot get excited about a player that missed their underage year.
When has it ever worked out?

You obviously love Kemp (given your profile picture) and I like him too, but I think if anything he's shown he was likely fairly rated around his late First Round selection point, or argubaly is performing slightly worse than we would of liked from that position. It's not like he is performing like a Top 5 pick and we got him for a steal due to his injury.

I'd be interested if you can point to any examples where a player who missed their underage season has gone on to smash it AFL level in that kind of first round selection space?

Maybe for late picks but I feel you never get the value you think you're getting taking a player whose slid due to injury. That final year is so important in development and hitting the ground running at AFL level. It's one of the contirbuting factors to why i'm also off on Finn Osullivan, just don't trust the body of work he's been able to put together this season.

Underage season typically refers the second to last season before they are drafted, so Hotton has that under his belt.

Hotton didn't burn in and out of playing through multiple injuries, he was one and done. Those tend to handle better than the ones with chronic or repeated injuries, and he's going to be learning a lot about elite preparation as part of how he's now resuming his running.

My profile picture for years has been players pulling silly faces. Kemp with his nose double plugged was too hard to resist.

In terms of clear cut examples? Joel Selwood, and at the point at which that happened (6 rounds in) it was his 4th knee operation in 2 years.

 

[HarryFlashman]

I would say that's partially true, and what's heavily understated is how much epigenetics can be a factor if you can adjust your diet and lifestyle around what you're trying to do.

It’s completely true, what is also true is that external factors training/diet/environment etc have a massive impact also.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

Given the talk of Adelaide trading up to 2, they would have every reason to suddenly put more work in FOS.

That's about balancing their weight vs their strength, as they have to haul themselves up a cliff.

Just another reminder that it's important to train functionally for your sport/pursuit. People who go to the gym purely for aesthetics or extremely basic KPIs wind up looking silly if they don't peel back after a while.

If the Crows were trading to 2 wouldn’t it be for Draper?

My source specifically said the Crows were meeting FOS because we had decided on Draper.

They did also so pick 2 was likely to be traded on draft night but no one knew where to