Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[Coona Blues]

SOP? Son of Peter.

Nah, will be amazed if HOF doesn’t stick, particularly given the number of Harry’s on the list.

Charleson going to be the interesting monicker, can’t just utilise his surname to differentiate between the Harry quartet.
Maybe he just gets H4?

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Maybe he just gets H4?

Harry IV

 

[El Topo]

I don't recall future picks ever being so poorly valued - is next year extra weak, extra compromised, or both?

 

[Michael Jezz]

I mean we basically cashed out of the top 35 in two drafts to make it happen, including coughing up players like Taj Hotton, Cooper Hynes, and Bo Allan along the way. Apparently we could have got a future first and change off North for pick 14 too!

So no, it's not some incredible twist of fate, we've put a lot of eggs in the basket for this one, and we've still got so little faith in the depth chart at either end we're hosting a veritable gaggle of mature talls for one list spot.

It's a gamble. We've got a very good player, and we've got some other solid players, but we're cashing in on the depth of the list and the fortune of securing the Campo twins and Duffy.

Sorry not sure where you are coming from. Austin did the opposite of gamble, he traded into the most derisked part of the draft- a top 3 pick. I would rather invest in a single likely KP or midfield generational, talent than 2 picks around 15 that are usually flanker types. We might have had drafted berry and trainor but we drafted Ofarrel anyway & Berry's a small fwd

 

[Stamos]

I don't recall future picks ever being so poorly valued - is next year extra weak, extra compromised, or both?

Lots of academy players, and the new DVI has decreased the value of later picks.

Also, this year was considered a strong very deep draft, so most teams wanted in, rather than out.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Nah, will be amazed if HOF doesn’t stick, particularly given the number of Harry’s on the list.

Charleson going to be the interesting monicker, can’t just utilise his surname to differentiate between the Harry quartet.
Maybe he just gets H4?

Call him "knees" after the Charleston?



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[marcmurphy3]

I don't recall future picks ever being so poorly valued - is next year extra weak, extra compromised, or both?

I think theres truth to both those things but also a fomo element. Clubs want instant gratification.

Its funny because the clubs wanted to be able to trade picks 2 years in advance. Based on valuations for picks 1 year in advance, a 1st in 2 years would struggle to net a current late 2nd.

 

[Cripptonite]

I mean we basically cashed out of the top 35 in two drafts to make it happen, including coughing up players like Taj Hotton, Cooper Hynes, and Bo Allan along the way. Apparently we could have got a future first and change off North for pick 14 too!

So no, it's not some incredible twist of fate, we've put a lot of eggs in the basket for this one, and we've still got so little faith in the depth chart at either end we're hosting a veritable gaggle of mature talls for one list spot.

It's a gamble. We've got a very good player, and we've got some other solid players, but we're cashing in on the depth of the list and the fortune of securing the Campo twins and Duffy.

It is certainly valid that we did trade out some good draft capital in this years and next years drafts to get into pick 3 although I’d argue we did well to maximise the value to walk away with a premium prospect in the conversation for pick 1 all year who could help revolutionise our previously slow midfield.

Players picked in the teens in this draft may well end up good but it’s far less likely to end up with star contributor v Pick 3. Everything is a gamble in footy.

Having basically guaranteed access to the Camporeales helped us trade up knowing we’d be able to get value from picks in the 60’s but the Carlton of old would have gone down the chest-beating path of signing the relatively big name Houston instead.

In general I can’t think of many other teams in contention gaining access to top 5 picks (non-academy or FS). Maybe only GWS through losing bulk players to get Taranto or when they lucked out getting in Callaghan after the pies future first dived unexpectedly.

 

[GoBlues!]

Players picked in the teens in this draft may well end up good but it’s far less likely to end up with star contributor v Pick 3. Everything is a gamble in footy.

We needed some premium draft picks or run the risk of selecting players in the teens that could end up okay or mediocre.

We have arguably picked up the best midfielder in the draft, who has high footy IQ and foundations of strong leadership qualities. Sometimes quality is better than quantity….this is one of those times.

 

[Stamos]

Mic'd Up | Inside draft night as Camporeales, recruiters react

Watch in real time how the second night of the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft panned out as Carlton welcomed key defender Harry O'Farrell as well as the Camporeale brothers.

www.carltonfc.com.au

 

[SurreyBlue]

O’Farrell was the guy all along. Like.
We’ve done well.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Start with LDU in free agency next year.

I’d prefer a Kozzie Pickett (trade) or Cam Rayner if looking at free agency, small/medium type forwards that impact the scoreboard

Most likely though we won’t do much next year, get ready for Walkers draft, take NGAs and sign TDK


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[Bale Dup]

I’d prefer a Kozzie Pickett (trade) or Cam Rayner if looking at free agency, small/medium type forwards that impact the scoreboard

Most likely though we won’t do much next year, get ready for Walkers draft, take NGAs and sign TDK


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Not much you really need to do, straight after winning a flag

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[CrippaTheGoat9]

I’d prefer a Kozzie Pickett (trade) or Cam Rayner if looking at free agency, small/medium type forwards that impact the scoreboard

Most likely though we won’t do much next year, get ready for Walkers draft, take NGAs and sign TDK


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Who are our NGAs?

 

[Wilson14]

Who are our NGAs?

You’ve got Jack Ison, and Mingara Clark who are both with Oakleigh, but will probably play a fair chunk of footy with Scotch(?) and you daresay Vic Metro for Jack. Tyson Gresham at Northern. You’ve also got Harry Dean potentially as a F/S, who played a game early with Murray against GWS but flew for a mark early in the 1st and fractured his clavicle, did a decent job if I recall correctly

 

[Garters]

You’ve got Jack Ison, and Mingara Clark who are both with Oakleigh, but will probably play a fair chunk of footy with Scotch(?) and you daresay Vic Metro for Jack. Tyson Gresham at Northern. You’ve also got Harry Dean potentially as a F/S, who played a game early with Murray against GWS but flew for a mark early in the 1st and fractured his clavicle, did a decent job if I recall correctly

Just what we need... Another Harry!

 

[HarryFlashman]

Looking in to the crystal ball I love the position we are in.

We have spent a whole heap of draft capital but have landed a premium/gun kid, 2FS on the cheap & taken 2 other players we liked. 100% we have spent up, but we have bought very well.

We have the scenario coming up where we can trade further into the future which bodes well for the draft after next.

Next draft I can see us picking up a number of Defensive talls- it’s going to be bloody hard as we will be shopping for bargains but we saw this draft how many talls slipped way back.
Recruiting team is going to have a solid focus & will need to get a little lucky, but I have faith they can deliver.

 

[Jimmae]

Our midfield depth is all pretty young...

Walsh, Cerra, Hollands brothers, Campo, Jagga, Lord. We also need a couple of players to round this out.

That's still a midfield that's slow and lacking strength over the ball, it's just not got any outliers that can open the game up at critical moments (Acres, Cripps, to a lesser extent Saad, Williams).

You're missing Wilson there, but even still there's a lot of faith being placed in Lord. He's got skills, no doubt, but he's not blessed with speed and a great deal of strength and he's making himself heavier. He might not make the step up and will just be a nuggety type with a clean kick should the opposition ever afford him space.

Elijah Hollands is sadly a midfield pinch-hitter, while Ollie needs to tilt his speed-endurance mix towards speed to make a difference for us (or maybe he becomes the Hewett replacement).

Long term, that midfield is on the decline while we watch most AFL sides bolt on talented player after talented player.

Very much has a feel of the Sydney midfield when they were contending under Roos - which makes sense given Agresta - but that's a bygone era, and one that had West Coast and Geelong's midfields walk all over them unless Buddy fired up.

So we sit on our hands, in the vain hope we get in on that action and WC has done pick 3 with someone else?

Every list management team does that kind of forecasting, we just went in a different direction to Richmond, GWS, and the Dogs.

You can’t replace Crippa, he’s generational

Unlikely directly no, but there's generational talent in every draft. Jagga is certainly one, but this draft is brimming with options in that respect.

This is all flawed and moot though. We effectively had two spots and were always going to pick a KPD...so in the end it sounds like we got the tall we wanted, and maximized our final pick to 3

We have two open list spots right now, that could have happily been used at the draft under the right circumstances.

Instead, they're being held open for SSP train-ons (two per slot), so it's not a moot point in that sense.

Gee not sure you have been understanding Austin's objective here, clearly he rated the top end of the draft highly hence the reason to trade up, all the top 5 picks are exceptional talents better than the next tier.

I understand the philosophy, but the number of such talents was actually 8 (one recovering from an ACL), and 1 or 2 more just below that level.

Why make the cut of 35 in your post? Why not 38, is it because we had a pick at that number?

We have Brisbane's future 2nd.

Sorry not sure where you are coming from. Austin did the opposite of gamble, he traded into the most derisked part of the draft- a top 3 pick. I would rather invest in a single likely KP or midfield generational, talent than 2 picks around 15 that are usually flanker types. We might have had drafted berry and trainor but we drafted Ofarrel anyway & Berry's a small fwd

I think you're forgetting concepts like diversifying your risk, and having an economical spread of assets that better make use of your capital investment.

Hotton and Hynes are not chump change.

Carlton of old would have gone down the chest-beating path of signing the relatively big name Houston instead.

SOS would not have made this mistake either; it's a mark of competency, not greatness.

In general I can’t think of many other teams in contention gaining access to top 5 picks (non-academy or FS). Maybe only GWS through losing bulk players to get Taranto or when they lucked out getting in Callaghan after the pies future first dived unexpectedly.

That's a fair discussion point but I'm sure there's a few examples. One reason why I'm sure it's rare is that a list that's genuinely in contention has a lot of player buy-in, and limited flaws.

That definitely wasn't us last year, and perhaps that reflects perhaps we aren't actually that good overall.

 

[bradfisher14]

including coughing up players like Taj Hotton, Cooper Hynes, and Bo Allan along the way.

I don't understand where you're going with this. Do you think that those names are more likely to make it as AFL players than Jagga Smith?

 

[BlueTongue]

I think theres truth to both those things but also a fomo element. Clubs want instant gratification.

Its funny because the clubs wanted to be able to trade picks 2 years in advance. Based on valuations for picks 1 year in advance, a 1st in 2 years would struggle to net a current late 2nd.

that applies to 75 % or the worlds population these days

 

[sweethoney]

I’d prefer a Kozzie Pickett (trade) or Cam Rayner if looking at free agency, small/medium type forwards that impact the scoreboard

Most likely though we won’t do much next year, get ready for Walkers draft, take NGAs and sign TDK


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Rayner signed for 6 years not long ago so wipe him off the list

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Rayner signed for 6 years not long ago so wipe him off the list

means nothing if he wants out...

 

[sweethoney]

means nothing if he wants out...

He doesn’t

 

[beowulf]

I don't recall future picks ever being so poorly valued - is next year extra weak, extra compromised, or both?

Not as strong as this one, at this stage of development, and no the highlights as yet. Someone will probably step up and develop into a potential star, but at this point, nobody sticks out like the top cohort of this year's.

 

[macky99]

That's still a midfield that's slow and lacking strength over the ball, it's just not got any outliers that can open the game up at critical moments (Acres, Cripps, to a lesser extent Saad, Williams).

You're missing Wilson there, but even still there's a lot of faith being placed in Lord. He's got skills, no doubt, but he's not blessed with speed and a great deal of strength and he's making himself heavier. He might not make the step up and will just be a nuggety type with a clean kick should the opposition ever afford him space.

Elijah Hollands is sadly a midfield pinch-hitter, while Ollie needs to tilt his speed-endurance mix towards speed to make a difference for us (or maybe he becomes the Hewett replacement).

Long term, that midfield is on the decline while we watch most AFL sides bolt on talented player after talented player.

Very much has a feel of the Sydney midfield when they were contending under Roos - which makes sense given Agresta - but that's a bygone era, and one that had West Coast and Geelong's midfields walk all over them unless Buddy fired up.

Every list management team does that kind of forecasting, we just went in a different direction to Richmond, GWS, and the Dogs.

Unlikely directly no, but there's generational talent in every draft. Jagga is certainly one, but this draft is brimming with options in that respect.

We have two open list spots right now, that could have happily been used at the draft under the right circumstances.

Instead, they're being held open for SSP train-ons (two per slot), so it's not a moot point in that sense.

I understand the philosophy, but the number of such talents was actually 8 (one recovering from an ACL), and 1 or 2 more just below that level.

We have Brisbane's future 2nd.

I think you're forgetting concepts like diversifying your risk, and having an economical spread of assets that better make use of your capital investment.

Hotton and Hynes are not chump change.

SOS would not have made this mistake either; it's a mark of competency, not greatness.

That's a fair discussion point but I'm sure there's a few examples. One reason why I'm sure it's rare is that a list that's genuinely in contention has a lot of player buy-in, and limited flaws.

That definitely wasn't us last year, and perhaps that reflects perhaps we aren't actually that good overall.

l believe you are missing the point in some areas, add a fit Cerra & Walsh to our midfield and the addition of Smith & possibly growth in Wilson we are in good shape in this area.

Austin has clearly gone for quality, he believes Smith is a geninue A grade player for a long period, finding it difficult why this is not a good strategy with the current shape of our list.