Analysis 2024 National Draft

[9874123]

Think people are underrating how insane Draper's performances in the SANFL are. He averaged 23 touches, 5 clearances, and 6 tackles in a crap team. For reference, JHF averaged, 17, 3, and 4 (he was playing more of a flanker role, but that says something about Draper too, given he was trusted to play inside mid as an 18 year old).

 

[katmanblue]

I agree but given this page spends alot of time potting Ollie's inability to break a tackle hoping they can be patient with a pick 3 if we take him lol

This board, patient?

Dreamin'

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[bradfisher14]

After watching many many videos I've switched to Jagga narrowly ahead of Draper. Would be happy with either though.

Draper is quicker but Jagga's decision making is unreal. Has a bit of that Pendles factor where traffic freezes around him. His disposal is underated too. Not a long kick but neat and technically really solid. He could kick a goal a game as a forward early days.


Got no issues with Draper's disposal. It'll be good enough for the role he plays. More pentration then Jagga but Jagga makes better decisions. Reckon Draper is even cleaner off the deck then Smith (they're both great) and better at breaking tackles to get outside. Can only see him as a mid though while Smith could play HBF or HFF.

FOS my 3rd favourite. Trying to see it with him. His best work is more wow then either of the two above but he does alot of very average things too and so many low production games. I feel I can trust Draper and Smith more.

I reckon Jagga’s kicks will have better penetration as he puts on strength in an afl program. Technique is very sound.

Think people are underrating how insane Draper's performances in the SANFL are. He averaged 23 touches, 5 clearances, and 6 tackles in a crap team. For reference, JHF averaged, 17, 3, and 4 (he was playing more of a flanker role, but that says something about Draper too, given he was trusted to play inside mid as an 18 year old).

17 year old* but very good points. In one of his games I looked at, a veteran sanfl commentator noted that he thought Draper was ahead of Gibbs as a prospect at the same age. Massive massive praise.

 

[Revenant1965]

19 October
12 days to close of Father/Son, NGA, Northern Academy bidding nominations close
32 days to Day #1 of National Draft

 

[The Return of the Paf]

I reckon Jagga’s kicks will have better penetration as he puts on strength in an afl program. Technique is very sound.

17 year old* but very good points. In one of his games I looked at, a veteran sanfl commentator noted that he thought Draper was ahead of Gibbs as a prospect at the same age.

Even Gibbs was ahead of Gibbs at that age, if you understand my meaning.

 

[Revenant1965]

Just a follow up thought. I hope whoever has pick #2 will bid on Ashcroft so they make Brisbane pay. I suppose on other side, however, someone may have a chat near a water cooler saying we won't bid if still there at #3, and the other person could mention something about how they've been thinking of trading some picks...

 

[windows1]

His junior footy is nothing alike.

Who you liking Lemming? You been all over it this year?

 

[Christou2Kouta]

Sat and watched some full games to put the highlights in perspective and came away with a wildly different set of rankings.

Honestly, don't think anyone in this draft comes near Harley Reid, McKercher, Sheezel etc. Some big ball winners like Jagga but I don't see any amazing kicks or damaging players at the top end except Murphy Reid.

Jagga Smith and Murphy Reid are my faves for this draft, though I'd happy with Langford, Lalor and Draper too. O'Sullivan for me just hasn't produced enough this year and reminds me of the talk around SPS in his u18 year after an amazing u17 year.

Will be shocked if someone bids on Ben Campo before 40 and I don't think we'd select either of the twins if they had a different surname. Ben is a good talent though, good build and applies himself well and gets where the ball is. Not damaging at all though. Lucas I'll withhold comment on.

Armstrong and Kako are guns, Essendon will be spewing they aren't in a position to land both. Kako is extremely clean and has great skills and marks well for his height.

I simply didn't see Lalor get it enough or hit enough good kicks to be in the discussion with Dusty or De Goey. Draper has good traits but didn't watch him take a game by the scruff of the neck like Murphy Reid did. Reid obviously looks to have modelled his game on Daicos. Like a poor man's version of Nick, which is still worthy of a pick 3

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

I’m all in on Jagga for us. He gets the ball moving with purpose both out of stoppages and in chains on transition. Such a brilliant footy brain with that relentless focus that helps to separate the best.

I agree on the Campo’s. As much as Ben can find the footy at will and is a strong tackler, I’m worried that his kicking is a disqualifying factor. This board got frustrated with Carrazzo and Curnow, well at least they were both taken with rookie picks. If we spent a 2nd rounder on a midfielder that you don’t want kicking the footy… I feel for the kid. That’s why I wouldn’t match a bid before 38. Matching a later bid is fine.

Lucas, I just don’t see any outstanding AFL traits. Sam Ramsay could find the footy and was a beautiful kick and he didn’t get a look in before being delisted. Jaxon Binns is a phenomenal runner, racks up ball and is a pretty decent kick and he is struggling to find a spot. I don’t see how Lucas gets ahead of him. I’d hate to let Jack Carroll go in order to draft Lucas. At least we know Jack can be dominant in our VFL side and you’d expect him to continue improving.



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[Coona Blues]

Just a follow up thought. I hope whoever has pick #2 will bid on Ashcroft so they make Brisbane pay. I suppose on other side, however, someone may have a chat near a water cooler saying we won't bid if still there at #3, and the other person could mention something about how they've been thinking of trading some picks...

Just hope we refrain from bidding. With ours this year and Cody in a couple of years with some NGA boys in between and a decent list of possibles for at least the next half dozen years.

Good will outweighs “making them pay” at this point in time.

 

[windows1]

Isn’t very difficult to see FOS had a badly hampered year. He played a lot more footy in his under age year which gave a better sample. He had 22 touches a game as an under ager. Didn’t need to improve much year to year to get that to 25 which I’d expect would have happened had he had a clear run at it. This year should be ignored. If he trended as he should have with modest development he would be an unequivocal number 1.

 

[windows1]

O'Farrell would be a great get if he makes it that far in my opinion.

Matt Whitlock is a sneaky chance of slipping, especially with 27, 28, 31, 34 all likely to be used pick matching.

As for pick 3, I get the feeling the tigers are set on Lalor, North I believe will look to go taller.
I've love Jagga for a while, FOS and Draper are the other two.
Only worry with Draper is the potential flight risk, especially with the SA sides having a focus on home ground talent.
Might be worth drafting him just to strengthen our hand of obtaining Butters if he does decide to return home... would be a bold strategy.
It seems like Lalor and FOS have had their reputations grow due to missing games with injury whilst Jagga has been so consistent for 4 years, but people want to find reasons to not pick him.
Reminds me a little of the Walsh chat in the lead up, clear stand out and healthy player throughout years of juniors, but the closer the draft got, the more people wanted to find holes in his game, rather than celebrate how good he'd been.

14 contested a game in shorter games is hard to ignore from Jagga. Kid is a star.

 

[windows1]

Jagga has been a prodigious talent for years, he was getting the Cody Walker kinda of talk playing as a 15 year old.

The only reason I would have FOS/Lalor above him on our draft board is I feel Jagga is an out and out mid. Where as the other two have shown more forward craft. Jagga can definitely kick goals, but usually does it whilst still playing midfield.

Going off the assumption, and what history tells us, our midfield is a hard one to crack at the moment, so I'd be leaning towards the other two as they will both be great midfielder, but in their development periods I think they are more suited to getting AFL experience whilst playing as a half forward to start off with.

I am not saying that Jagga is like or going to turn out like Dow, but just using Dow as an example. He was always a midfielder, his best asset is reading the ruck taps. He found it incredible hard to find a spot in our team cause he didn't have the flexibility to play the forward role. This would be my one and only question mark around Jagga.

That said, I wonder if Jagga could play the N Daicos/ Sheezel half back role to start off with?

I really do rate him very highly. Just thinking in regards to our team specifically.

Reckon Jagga walks straight into the centre square first bounce next year in our midfield and only ever leaves it for 16 years to come to the bench.

He will be 23-25 a game, half contested and 10 ground ball gets a game from day one.

 

[windows1]

One thing about Jagga.....he is slippery and smart around goals. First game of APS he played as a Year 10 for Scotch he snagged 4 goals - they couldn't put a glove on him.

Doesn’t shock. He looks slippery as hell and knows exactly where the ball is going.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Doesn’t shock. He looks slippery as hell and knows exactly where the ball is going.

What Jagga has, you just can’t teach. He has time and awareness but also just demands the ball like all star players do.

He’s my # 1 and would give our midfield exactly what it needs, plus his kicking looks a treat, something our forwards will love.

I can see a starting midfield of Lord and Jagga added to it in no time, would really make our midfield much more dynamic

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

I’ll be honest here. I’ve flipped 1000 times on who’s our man. Says a lot about how even they all are.

 

[windows1]

Draper for me is either Warner or Dow. I’d rather someone like Jagga who feels less risky

Can’t be Dow. Draper chases like his life depends on it. Dow prefers to supervise his opponents and run next to them if possible.

 

[Bluechip66]

Love Draper and hope we get him, but let’s not get carried away.

A well built 180cm player hardly evokes “frightening” vibes. Would be the smallest of our mids.

& also the quickest, something we need!

 

[windows1]

Harvey Langford might be the one elite ball user

I would beat him in a sprint. NO

 

[bradfisher14]

Love Draper and hope we get him, but let’s not get carried away.

A well built 180cm player hardly evokes “frightening” vibes. Would be the smallest of our mids.

The way he plays is frightening for the opposition though. His IQ, speed and agility would be an absolute nightmare around stoppage. If he wins the ball clean he explodes away or if his opponent wins the ball he’ll close him down instantly. Either way the opposition have to be focused on what he’s doing at all times and that is the type of frightening we currently lack in the midfield.

 

[gbatman]

I think our preferences will be Draper and Smith with O'Sullivan as the backup incase those two go one and two.

I keep changing my mind which out of Draper and Smith I would prefer. Both have really good qualities.

Smith looks like he could play in any third of the ground which is a really big attraction for us. Draper I don't know if he is limited in his position and role?

My biggest question is who has the better defensive game? Who chases, tackles and runs down better?

We have been burnt before by drafting quick, pretty players like with Dow who didn't chase, tackle and run hard defensively.

The other point is their second or third position?

Which player can go forward or play half back better? They won't be playing full time on the ball. They will have to spend time elsewhere. That is what we will want.

 

[bradfisher14]

I think our preferences will be Draper and Smith with O'Sullivan as the backup incase those two go one and two.

I keep changing my mind which out of Draper and Smith I would prefer. Both have really good qualities.

Smith looks like he could play in any third of the ground which is a really big attraction for us. Draper I don't know if he is limited in his position and role?

My biggest question is who has the better defensive game? Who chases, tackles and runs down better?

We have been burnt before by drafting quick, pretty players like with Dow who didn't chase, tackle and run hard defensively.

Draper 100% over Smith for the defensive side of the game.

 

[windows1]

I’m now convinced we will trade for 2 with North. Reasons:

• Austin said “38 gives us flexibility in the next few weeks” which means pick swaps
• North are said to be big on Tauru AND they want to get back into the draft.
• North cannot bet on Tauru being there at 6 if they trade with Richmond. They will know we won’t take

Him.
- 38 gives them something to bundle with F1 or F2 and move up.

Just my musings. I love Tauru and if I was them I would only slide as low as I was happy would still get him for me. They don’t need any more mids.

They could grab 38 and bundle with a future pick and trade with say GWS or Sydney and then get back in for a goal kicking small. And still get Tauru.

I expect them to fall and stay in love with him and won’t give him up.

 

[windows1]

Is anyone concerned about Lalor’s durability?

Had a plethora of injuries this year. We don’t need more of it.

Seems like he’s never had a preseason to get super fit. Cricketer. Injured this preseason. I expect him to thrive in afl environment (apparently has ‘future captain’ written all over him).

 

[windows1]

We spent a heap to move up to 3.
North are open to trading down.
It doesn't make sense that we'd be involved in the deal.

I think we got the steal of a century to get 3. On points values you almost always have to over pay by 500-1000 points to move into the top group. The value of what we traded out is almost the same as 3.

We traded 5 twenty dollar notes for 2 50s.

 

[BringFevBack2021]

I’ll be honest here. I’ve flipped 1000 times on who’s our man. Says a lot about how even they all are.

Same, I’ve given up because every time I present an argument I’m immediately refuted and think “that’s a really good point”

So even, so many options - unbelievable result in a draft like this