Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Blue_Fusion]

From about a month ago...

 

[GoBlues!]

Just keep getting bad vibes about FOS...

He takes on tacklers and gets caught, he hurries kicks forward, he fumbles bouncing the ball...

There's something about him that just doesn't work for me.

If we're down to Smith v Draper at pick 3, I'm happy with either of them.

Been looking at a few FOS games / highlights and I’m not seeing it either BF. Very low possessions and form drop off this year compared to last year is a bit of concern. Hope we steer away from FOS tbh seems a risky pick imo.

I’d be happier with either one of Langford, Smith, Draper or Lalor.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Great point Robbie.

Langford’s numbers 26 disposals, 5/6 clearances per game stack up a lot better than some other highly rated mids like FOS.

Langford - MID, 190cm
National Champs: 25.5 disposals, 6.2 clearances, 6.2 marks
Talent League: 15 games, 25.9 disposals, 4.7 clearances, 1.3 goals

FOS - MID, 182cm
National Champs: 2 games, 11.5 disposals, 1.5 marks, 3.5 tackles
Talent League: 4 games, 17.2 disposals, 3.0 clearances, 1.2 goals.

Not sure speed alone is enough if you can’t generate many disposals and clearances. Langford also has a penetrating left foot kick and is in the top bracket of mids.

Now compare him to Draper and Jagga

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Ordinarily I’d agree.

However!!!

SPS and Dow were POD’s and ended in tears.

Maybe Jagga is the guaranteed outcome and therefore the best option.

SPS was a bust but it just wasn't a great draft. This is. So the context is very different.

Picks after SPS- Scrimshaw, Logue, Brodie and Jack Bowes would all have been delisted by Carlton by now.

But drafting is very difficult so sticking with the best available player is very important.

 

[myblueroan]

My choice is still Draper.

I have a Cert 3 in you tube video watching and assessing . So. Yeah.

 

[GoBlues!]

Now compare him to Draper and Jagga

I’d be happy with either of Jagga, Draper or Langford.

Was responding to Robbo’s post about Langfords qualities - has excellent disposal, can mark, play midfield and forward. A lot of his highlights show kicking long / short and hitting forwards - something we desperately lack.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

My choice is still Draper.

I have a Cert 3 in you tube video watching and assessing . So. Yeah.

Only a cert 3, pffft, amateur hour!

 

[Juice030103]

Definitely see a clear 4, although haven’t watched much of Langford, also excludes Ashcroft cause I’m not counting him


Still think FOS is the one with the most upside, jagga the safest one. If I was drafting with pick 1 I’d go FOS Jagga Lalor and then Draper

 

[Pinnell]

still a bottom ager like fos

He turned 18 in January. He’s one of the oldest, not a bottom ager at all

 

[Christou2Kouta]

Langford is such a good player and if you disqualified potential draftees on 20m sprint times then you’d never have selected Cripps or Bontempelli. The quickest way to move the ball forward is with smart positioning, clean hands, good decisions and sound skills. Langford has all of those traits.

Having said all that, we really do need some leg speed.

It’s a tough choice for Austin this year, with the main comfort being that you have several very good players to choose from so you can’t go too wrong.


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[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

He turned 18 in January. He’s one of the oldest, not a bottom ager at all

There is no such thing as “bottom ager” in the actual draft anymore but yeh, someone like Ashcroft is pretty much a year younger than Jagga.
It’s also what turned me off Stoker in his draft. A early birthdate and an absolute man child, atleast Jaffa still looks like he has upside physically.

If you knew when these kids hit puberty it would also help more then birthdate.

 

[Stamos]

Hun Draft Guide

https://archive.md/fmYIQ

 

[BigFrizz36]

I wonder as to whether North might be amenable to trading 2 for 3 and 38? They would probably like to take Tauru or Armstrong but won't want to at 2 and 38 might make it a bit easier for them. Would get us closer to getting whomever we want and get rid of 38 in case a bid for Ben comes before then.

 

[NYCFC]

Trading 2 for Richmond’s 6 and 10 makes more sense for North.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Been looking at a few FOS games / highlights and I’m not seeing it either BF. Very low possessions and form drop off this year compared to last year is a bit of concern. Hope we steer away from FOS tbh seems a risky pick imo.

I’d be happier with either one of Langford, Smith, Draper or Lalor.

Look, to be fair to FOS, he did have his injuries this year which def impacted his performances.

But for me, it's still not an excuse for clips that I've seen where he's running in a paddock and then stuffs up bouncing the ball... or when he's running with it, looks up and sees an opposition player coming toward him and he tries to evade and ends up getting caught... this happens quite often... or when he just hurries kicks forward with no real intention than to just gain territory. That's something that has been really frustrating with Walsh, I don't want another with that mentality.

Then there's the fact that he doesn't really get much of the pill either... gives me Cuningham vibes tbh... he can do some really impactful things and be a dynamic player without getting the pill that often, but he can also do some things where he looks like a goose. imo, a pick 3 shouldn't be spent on a player that will be in and out of games, especially when he has the aforementioned flaws to go with it...

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I wonder as to whether North might be amenable to trading 2 for 3 and 38? They would probably like to take Tauru or Armstrong but won't want to at 2 and 38 might make it a bit easier for them. Would get us closer to getting whomever we want and get rid of 38 in case a bid for Ben comes before then.

I reckon if they're going to trade 2, it will be to Richmond for 6 + 10 or 11. They'll probably send an F2 back Richmond's way. This will put them in the frame for both Tauru and Armstrong.

As for us, I wouldn't want to just throw 38 away to move up one spot. I wouldn't mind if we shopped it around for another F2, I just can't see no bid coming in for Ben before 38 imo.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

I wonder as to whether North might be amenable to trading 2 for 3 and 38? They would probably like to take Tauru or Armstrong but won't want to at 2 and 38 might make it a bit easier for them. Would get us closer to getting whomever we want and get rid of 38 in case a bid for Ben comes before then.

That's Vyvyan Bastard logic. What if a bid didn't come before 38? That's the obliteration of a draft pick rated ahead of Ben for virtually no gain to us.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I reckon if they're going to trade 2, it will be to Richmond for 6 + 10 or 11. They'll probably send an F2 back Richmond's way. This will put them in the frame for both Tauru and Armstrong.

As for us, I wouldn't want to just throw 38 away to move up one spot. I wouldn't mind if we shopped it around for another F2, I just can't see no bid coming in for Ben before 38 imo.

I think if they are willing to take 38 to move down a spot, we just call their bluff as it would be super clear they have no intention of taking our player. If they though there was even a 1% chance of missing their guy, they wouldn't trade 2 for 3+38.

If you read the Richmond board, they've already got pick 2 but for 6+18/20 . I'm not sure North do it for that and reckon there is no chance Richmond do 6+10/11.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Look, to be fair to FOS, he did have his injuries this year which def impacted his performances.

But for me, it's still not an excuse for clips that I've seen where he's running in a paddock and then stuffs up bouncing the ball... or when he's running with it, looks up and sees an opposition player coming toward him and he tries to evade and ends up getting caught... this happens quite often... or when he just hurries kicks forward with no real intention than to just gain territory. That's something that has been really frustrating with Walsh, I don't want another with that mentality.

Then there's the fact that he doesn't really get much of the pill either... gives me Cuningham vibes tbh... he can do some really impactful things and be a dynamic player without getting the pill that often, but he can also do some things where he looks like a goose. imo, a pick 3 shouldn't be spent on a player that will be in and out of games, especially when he has the aforementioned flaws to go with it...

Yeah, that's my concern. Beyond his low possession's numbers, he does a lot of dumb stuff. We have enough dumb footballers. Compare his decision making to Jagga and it's chalk and cheese.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Hun Draft Guide

https://archive.md/fmYIQ

The only name I've seen us linked to in the media is Finn O'Sullivan, which gives me the impression he's either not the one we're after, or he's no more likely than anyone else.

Austin and Co have kept things incredibly tight this year, barely anything has leaked early, and he's played a straight bat to any questions about our plans. The FOS link is down to him being in the ballpark and being related to Walsh, other than that the journo's have nothing to go off.

 

[ctwenty1]

The only name I've seen us linked to in the media is Finn O'Sullivan, which gives me the impression he's either not the one we're after, or he's no more likely than anyone else.

Austin and Co have kept things incredibly tight this year, barely anything has leaked early, and he's played a straight bat to any questions about our plans. The FOS link is down to him being in the ballpark and being related to Walsh, other than that the journo's have nothing to go off.

And a bit disappointed they didn't consider who would be available at 38, just assuming it would be used on Ben

 

[Sector 7G]

The only name I've seen us linked to in the media is Finn O'Sullivan, which gives me the impression he's either not the one we're after, or he's no more likely than anyone else.

Austin and Co have kept things incredibly tight this year, barely anything has leaked early, and he's played a straight bat to any questions about our plans. The FOS link is down to him being in the ballpark and being related to Walsh, other than that the journo's have nothing to go off.

Players that are Standouts in their bottom age year but fail to improve /go backwards in their top age year don't have a great track record. I would go for the more current form. Recent misses for Carlton include SPS and LOB. Both had injuries as an excuse for their down years as well.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Players that are Standouts in their bottom age year but fail to improve /go backwards in their top age year don't have a great track record. I would go for the more current form. Recent misses for Carlton include SPS and LOB. Both had injuries as an excuse for their down years as well.

Yeah, I'm firmly on the Jagga train at the moment. Can't see much changing that between now and draft day. Not to say I think any of the others are unworthy, and whoever we end up with I'll back in, but Smith just looks like exactly what we need. If he comes on like I think he will, I reckon he'll have the same sort of impact on our midfield as Dane Swan did for the Pies - Jagga doesn't and likely won't match Swanny for strength, but he's got that same hunger for the ball, the same intense focus around stoppages, the same speed of thought and instinctive understanding of space, and the workrate that means as long as the play continues he's looking to stay in it.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

The only name I've seen us linked to in the media is Finn O'Sullivan, which gives me the impression he's either not the one we're after, or he's no more likely than anyone else.

Austin and Co have kept things incredibly tight this year, barely anything has leaked early, and he's played a straight bat to any questions about our plans. The FOS link is down to him being in the ballpark and being related to Walsh, other than that the journo's have nothing to go off.

You could be right but we've been incredibly predictable in the past and with mostly no resistance, which suggests something that can't be a good. Recent drafts have also had plenty of Carlton connections. Those things concern me more than any less than impressive highlights real.

I know I'm a paranoid bugger but I think we have a tendency to over-rationalise each list spot.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

That's Vyvyan Bastard logic. What if a bid didn't come before 38? That's the obliteration of a draft pick rated ahead of Ben for virtually no gain to us.

Plan to do it on the night if a bid comes in, seems to be stock standard watching the draft over the last few years.
Can trade back in once the bid is matched


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