Analysis 2024 National Draft

[CCurnow3votes]

I get the whole footy IQ>speed argument and in many instances it's a fair outlook... But our midfield and team as a whole is just so hamstrung by players borderline running backwards they're that slow in terms of looking for open options around the ground.

Same reason I wasn't as love struck with Houston when he became a possibility, we have some great ball users in our backline already, it's the lack of options with the ability to create separation in our midfield and forward line that means our half backs have to kick down the line too often for our own good.

Injecting some speed and genuine line breaking runners would completely change our ability all around the ground. Same reason I'm hoping Wilson can break into our b23 next year.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Curious how this year's Norm Smith medallist tested. Particularly his speed??

We focus way to much on numbers on papers instead of the actual player.

Ashcroft would run rings around Langford even post ACL. Ashcroft has great lateral movement and good straight line speed

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Do you have his speed and agility tests ?


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They're somewhere in the thread, he was on the bottom end for both. Ran a fairly decent 2km though at around 6:30.

 

[windows1]

Hopefully there’s something else besides FOS’s games from last year to support his high ranking windows.

I get he was injured and possibly restricted in the few games he played this year. Were his low possessions due to playing out of position?

I feel like others have covered this at length. He didn’t play a lot of Coates footy this year, was injured in game in one or two, certainly was playing limited time and often not on ball.

What’s wrong with games from last year? He was an under aged playing against guys a year old and looked a star. Much more sample size in his footy last year.

 

[VainGlorious]

In the last two weeks I’ve gone from FOS to Draper to Jagga to Lalor to Draper to Lalor to FOS to Jagga to Draper then back to FOS for a brief stint with Draper eventually winning out until Smith reared up and took the mantle and now I can comfortably say I’m definitely probably most likely on the Lalor bandwagon if he’s there at our pick.

Maybe.

 

[Benaly28]

The more i look into draft the more I think we may have been able to find two guns at 12 and 14.

Time will tell on this this trade up.

I did have a look at the top 15 and around those picks I came up with

Allan
Travaglia
Trainor
Smile
Lindsay
Berry
Hannaford

Id be happy with any two of those but I’d be wrapped with a top 3 pick who might turn out to be a star.


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[Arr0w]

20m sprint

Gabriel Stumpf 2.815
Leo Lombard 2.851
Rhys Unwin 2.914
Jasper Alger 2.931
Malakai Champion 2.938
Urquhard 2.976
Bo Allan 2.982
Tauru 3.001
Hayes 3.002
Burmeister 3.048
Bice 3.071
Smillie 3.088
Davis 3.125
Gerryn 3.156
Ough 3.174
Travaglia 3.186

Bottom 5
Noah Mraz 3.258
Alex Dodson 3.248
Logan Smith 3.247
Harvey Langford 3.240
Eoin McEvoy 3.240

State combine

Top 5 - 20 sprint
Lennox Hofmann 2.861
Blake Leidler 2.887
Jayden Nguyen 2.887
Oliver Hannaford 2.954
Mitch Kirkwood-Scott 2.969

Bottom 5
Jordan Doherty 3.287
Oliver Dean 3.277
Luke Quaynor 3.267
Charlie Orchard 3.213
Nathaniel Sulzberger 3.212

 

[I bleed Blue]

I did have a look at the top 15 and around those picks I came up with

Allan
Travaglia
Trainor
Smile
Lindsay
Berry
Hannaford

Id be happy with any two of those but I’d be wrapped with a top 3 pick who might turn out to be a star.


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Nail pick 3 and it will go down as a great decision to trade up.

 

[Vamos Juddamente]

I wonder if Adelaide perhaps want to swap picks with us for Sid Draper if the guy we want is still on the board and get something else in addition like Adelaide's 2025 2nd rounder so they get a home town boy.

These interstate clubs always have that fear of the go home factor and love to draft locals.

The only reason we would do that deal is if we do not want to take Draper. Surely Adelaide would know this so I doubt they would get sucked into giving up anything. Just good fortune for them a local is in their pick range.

 

[bradfisher14]

Langford will be a good/great AFL player. But is he going to be miles better than the midfielders that fit our need for speed in the midfield? I doubt it. Therefore, I think it's smarter to take a guy that fits our needs that has a similar level of ability.

For me, Smith/FOS/Draper/Lalor are all ahead of Langford as a prospect, but I can see the appeal.

 

[Gethelred]

Just a reminder: if you want to continue playing, play nicely.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Just a reminder: if you want to continue playing, play nicely.

How many games have you watched?

 

[Gethelred]

How many games have you watched?

None, mercifully! Too busy!

 

[Blue__Balls]

Hi all. A question if I may.

With our pick, is there any of FOS, Smith, Lalor, Langford or even Reid that you would be concerned about if we selected them? If so, why?
To put it another way, are there any Paddy Dow's among them?
Personally, I think the chance of us getting it wrong is extremely low.

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I think Draper is the biggest risk of being a complete bust. His ceiling is high, but the Dow comparisons are valid. He does have a stronger defensive game than Dow though, so there's probably a bit more confidence that he could at least fill a role even if you can't build a midfield around him.

FOS the next riskiest for me - could be Heeney, could be Hayward. Doubt he busts completely, but you wouldn't want to look back on this draft in 5-6 years if it turned out you used a top 3 pick on a mid-grade half forward flanker.

Langford and Reid have higher floors than those two, but I think their ceiling is maybe a touch more beige. They could be the types you can build a midfield around because they're pretty consistent with their production and they're effective at bringing teammates into the game. What they're not is "dynamic" though, which is all the rage at the moment and probably what we need. Most bottom-5 type sides would be more than happy to add either player to their midfield for the long term, and while I'm sure we would too I think we're going to have a little bit of a bet each way and also look for short term impact while we're coming into our flag window.

Smith to me is the most bust-proof, and also has a very high ceiling. The only question mark is size, which can be a barrier, but when you look at guys like Neale, Merrett, Daicos, Butters, Serong etc. it's definitely not insurmountable. And perhaps an extension of that will be his defensive impact - at least until he puts on some more muscle. I think with Smith you'll get the highest floor because of his professionalism, workrate, game sense, agility and skills, and I also think he's the most suited to the way the game is travelling at the moment with his willingness to stay involved in a running chain of play. He's a busy player, and that means he'll regularly be making things happen.

 

[GoBlues!]

I feel like others have covered this at length. He didn’t play a lot of Coates footy this year, was injured in game in one or two, certainly was playing limited time and often not on ball.

What’s wrong with games from last year? He was an under aged playing against guys a year old and looked a star. Much more sample size in his footy last year.

Thanks windows.

I’ve looked at FOS’s games in 2023 and can see some great qualities and passages of play. There’s also some examples of quick kicks forward, turnovers and poor shots at goal mixed in with his 2023 highlights which seems strange.

I’m probably not seeing enough as to why he would be rated ahead of Lalor, Jagga or Draper based on their 2024 form. Would have been nice to see how FOS would had developed in 2024 if was unencumbered.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Nail pick 3 and it will go down as a great decision to trade up.

It's not in isolation too, we've essentially gone from 12 & 14 to 3 & 38.

If we find a player at 38 we're laughing

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I think Draper is the biggest risk of being a complete bust. His ceiling is high, but the Dow comparisons are valid. He does have a stronger defensive game than Dow though, so there's probably a bit more confidence that he could at least fill a role even if you can't build a midfield around him.

FOS the next riskiest for me - could be Heeney, could be Hayward. Doubt he busts completely, but you wouldn't want to look back on this draft in 5-6 years if it turned out you used a top 3 pick on a mid-grade half forward flanker.

Langford and Reid have higher floors than those two, but I think their ceiling is maybe a touch more beige. They could be the types you can build a midfield around because they're pretty consistent with their production and they're effective at bringing teammates into the game. What they're not is "dynamic" though, which is all the rage at the moment and probably what we need. Most bottom-5 type sides would be more than happy to add either player to their midfield for the long term, and while I'm sure we would too I think we're going to have a little bit of a bet each way and also look for short term impact while we're coming into our flag window.

Smith to me is the most bust-proof, and also has a very high ceiling. The only question mark is size, which can be a barrier, but when you look at guys like Neale, Merrett, Daicos, Butters, Serong etc. it's definitely not insurmountable. And perhaps an extension of that will be his defensive impact - at least until he puts on some more muscle. I think with Smith you'll get the highest floor because of his professionalism, workrate, game sense, agility and skills, and I also think he's the most suited to the way the game is travelling at the moment with his willingness to stay involved in a running chain of play. He's a busy player, and that means he'll regularly be making things happen.

Draper and Dow are genuinely nothing alike as players other than they both have good acceleration off the mark and aren't 'elite' users by foot. I'm not sure how this comparison has come about.

Draper is an overlap run player who's great defensively and excels in open play, Dow was clearance or bust and extremely ordinary without the ball.

That's not to say he couldn't be a bust, but they really don't play similarly at all.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Draper and Dow are genuinely nothing alike as players other than they both have good acceleration off the mark and aren't 'elite' users by foot. I'm not sure how this comparison has come about.

Draper is an overlap run player who's great defensively and excels in open play, Dow was clearance or bust and extremely ordinary without the ball.

That's not to say he couldn't be a bust, but they really don't play similarly at all.

Didn't say they play similarly, but that in terms of boom vs bust I think there's a similarity. Dow had some real weapons, but they weren't enough to overcome his limitations. I think Draper could be that player from this top 5 or so - has weapons, his weaknesses may render those weapons somewhat ineffective at the next level. Not writing him off - the "boom" is of course still on the table. I just see him as having the greatest comparative chance of being a bust if it doesn't all come together.

The others I think have either more rounded games, or their strengths are such that a role can probably still be carved out for them despite their weaknesses, even of they don't meet the loftiest of expectations.

 

[bradfisher14]

Didn't say they play similarly, but that in terms of boom vs bust I think there's a similarity. Dow had some real weapons, but they weren't enough to overcome his limitations. I think Draper could be that player from this top 5 or so - has weapons, his weaknesses may render those weapons somewhat ineffective at the next level. Not writing him off - the "boom" is of course still on the table. I just see him as having the greatest comparative chance of being a bust if it doesn't all come together.

The others I think have either more rounded games, or their strengths are such that a role can probably still be carved out for them despite their weaknesses, even of they don't meet the loftiest of expectations.

What weaknesses do you see in Draper's game? I've seen you refer to them but haven't seen you name anything specific.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Didn't say they play similarly, but that in terms of boom vs bust I think there's a similarity. Dow had some real weapons, but they weren't enough to overcome his limitations. I think Draper could be that player from this top 5 or so - has weapons, his weaknesses may render those weapons somewhat ineffective at the next level. Not writing him off - the "boom" is of course still on the table. I just see him as having the greatest comparative chance of being a bust if it doesn't all come together.

The others I think have either more rounded games, or their strengths are such that a role can probably still be carved out for them despite their weaknesses, even of they don't meet the loftiest of expectations.

Fair enough, id vehemently disagree with the evaluation of his strengths and weaknesses but each to their own.