Analysis 2024 National Draft

[charred_fate]

Ashcroft would run rings around Langford even post ACL. Ashcroft has great lateral movement and good straight line speed

The reason they’re awesome though is bc of their contested ball work/hands in congestion. A positive for us is that of the top 8 teams, I’d say our list/midfield most closely resembles theirs.

They do not have the speed and dynamic midfielders of the other teams, but they do have incredibly smart players and mostly good users. We need the brains/kicking skills and a line-breaker (which comes in more ways than just speed), which is why Draper has slipped behind Langford (and Smith, FOS, Lalor) for mine.

 

[bmaurizio]

Smith’s evasive skills are excellent and a treat to watch , it’s only natural a smaller framed player, against man child’s like Lalor will take advantage and avoid injuries, it’s logical. Jagga is a quality footballer and in time will become a great one.

 

[Bletch]

For the draft experts, how did we suddenly end up with pick 89? And why do we have picks in the 100's that we obvioulsy wont take - is that to allow for a full senior list but noone on the rookie list?

You get a number of picks based on the number of available spots on your list. The primary list can be up to 38 players, but picks are also limited by the total number of primary + rookie - 42 maximum (not including Cat-B).

So, right now, we have 31 players on our primary list (including Haynes), and we have 4 rookies. 38-31=7. And 42-(31+4)=7. We have seven available slots. We only had six selections in rounds 1-4 after the trade period, so to get to seven, we add a round 5 selection - pick 89.

If somehow we lost more players (unlikely, they're all contracted), then more spots would open, in rounds 6, 7... which would end up getting to those picks in the 100s.

Theoretically, if we delisted every player on the list, and only had one pick per round, the draft would be extended to 38 rounds! If we were premiers that year, our first pick would be 18 and our last pick would be pick 684

Also worth noting that prior to delisting S Durds and the 2 Carrolls the other day, we only had 4 free slots. If we'd gone to the draft in that state, we would only have had the first four of our picks available (picks 69 and 72 would have been lost).

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

O’Sullivan family of the belief Finn will end up at Tigers with North trading pick 2 to Richmond

 

[dylan_mike1]

How's the handballs at the 50 sec mark. Whoa!

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[Blue__Balls]

What weaknesses do you see in Draper's game? I've seen you refer to them but haven't seen you name anything specific.

I think Draper's decision making and delivery can be poor at times, and I think his handballs in general play are consistently loopy and hang in the air a very long time. And I think the problem there is that his strengths - clean hands, burst, top speed, instincts to take the game on - can all be "undone" if his next disposal is either poor or poorly directed.

Not necessarily anything that can't be fixed - but as we see with most players, just cause something is academically fixable, there's no guarantee it'll actually get better. By all accounts he's a hard worker, so maybe given time he'll be fine, but as I said, of the top group I think the issues in his game are the ones that have the greatest potential to limit his effectiveness.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I get the feeling North will draft Tauru. Just a hunch. There's enough smoke that they're interested and given all the mids they have taken recently it makes sense. The only question mark is 2 is a little high but if it comes to it they might just bite the bullet and pick him.

I just don't see how Richmond in their right mind would offer 6 and 11 to move up to 2 and that's what I think it would take for North to slide back.

 

[BigFrizz36]

I get the feeling North will draft Tauru. Just a hunch. There's enough smoke that they're interested and given all the mids they have taken recently it makes sense. The only question mark is 2 is a little high but if it comes to it they might just bite the bullet and pick him.

I just don't see how Richmond in their right mind would offer 6 and 11 to move up to 2 and that's what I think it would take for North to slide back.

What if North chucked in a future 1st and got back the Tigers future 2nd as part of the deal?

 

[BigFrizz36]

It's not in isolation too, we've essentially gone from 12 & 14 to 3 & 38.

If we find a player at 38 we're laughing

If we get a pick at 38 (which means that there has been no bid on Ben) we're laughing. Be nice if someone like O'Farrell was there.

 

[marcmurphy3]

What if North chucked in a future 1st and got back the Tigers future 2nd as part of the deal?

Then it's an aweful trade for North. I see 2 +F1 for 6 and 11 has been mooted. Even worse.

 

[Bletch]

What if North chucked in a future 1st and got back the Tigers future 2nd as part of the deal?

Think it would have to be something like this. Or 6 and 18 or 20. I just don't see the Tigers that desperate for pick 2, that they would give away another top pick. Every Tiger supporter I speak to says 'keep the 8 picks'.

And the big issue for North is, what if the Dees grab Tauru at 5?

 

[Bletch]

Then it's an aweful trade for North. I see 2 +F1 for 6 and 11 has been mooted. Even worse.

It's really banking on them having a much improved 2025, isn't it. And it's possible they will, but a big risk.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

How's the handballs at the 50 sec mark. Whoa!

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Hopefully Finn is still there at pick 38 and we can take a punt on the kid

 

[TerryWallet]

I'm not sure how this narrative of Draper is/might be Dow has taken hold and he might be a bust.

He has the deepest resume of anyone in the draft.

U16 SA title winning Captain.

U18 underage year State MVP, All Australian, Captain and BOG in Premiership in Colts, and 3 SANFL games.

U18 senior year All Australian after injury through early season, SA Captain, then starred in SANFL Seniors after the U18 Championships.

He is not just "fast" while the others are "real players". Sid the Mid has been a star footballer his whole journey. I'd be rapt with him at our pick.

 

[BigFrizz36]

It's really banking on them having a much improved 2025, isn't it. And it's possible they will, but a big risk.

Maybe a bit of it might be psychological as well. Their midfield looks set. Rucks O.K. Go all in for Tauru/Armstrong with 6 & 8 at this draft and give away your future 1st and say "we're ready to go now,".

As you said it's a risky strategy. Can't act like a basket case forever playing for and protecting draft picks though.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I'm not sure how this narrative of Draper is/might be Dow has taken hold and he might be a bust.

He has the deepest resume of anyone in the draft.

U16 SA title winning Captain.

U18 underage year State MVP, All Australian, Captain and BOG in Premiership in Colts, and 3 SANFL games.

U18 senior year All Australian after injury through early season, SA Captain, then starred in SANFL Seniors after the U18 Championships.

He is not just "fast" while the others are "real players". Sid the Mid has been a star footballer his whole journey. I'd be rapt with him at our pick.

Yeah, they aren't really that similar aside from being inside mids with a bit of pace.

Draper is a better kick despite it not being his absolute strength. He can win the ball on the outside which Dow never could. He is much better defensively. Has has better frame for putting on the muscle required to play inside mid at AFL level. Draper even has Dow covered for speed after the first few steps.

 

[Matty411]

I think Draper is the biggest risk of being a complete bust. His ceiling is high, but the Dow comparisons are valid. He does have a stronger defensive game than Dow though, so there's probably a bit more confidence that he could at least fill a role even if you can't build a midfield around him.

FOS the next riskiest for me - could be Heeney, could be Hayward. Doubt he busts completely, but you wouldn't want to look back on this draft in 5-6 years if it turned out you used a top 3 pick on a mid-grade half forward flanker.

Langford and Reid have higher floors than those two, but I think their ceiling is maybe a touch more beige. They could be the types you can build a midfield around because they're pretty consistent with their production and they're effective at bringing teammates into the game. What they're not is "dynamic" though, which is all the rage at the moment and probably what we need. Most bottom-5 type sides would be more than happy to add either player to their midfield for the long term, and while I'm sure we would too I think we're going to have a little bit of a bet each way and also look for short term impact while we're coming into our flag window.

Smith to me is the most bust-proof, and also has a very high ceiling. The only question mark is size, which can be a barrier, but when you look at guys like Neale, Merrett, Daicos, Butters, Serong etc. it's definitely not insurmountable. And perhaps an extension of that will be his defensive impact - at least until he puts on some more muscle. I think with Smith you'll get the highest floor because of his professionalism, workrate, game sense, agility and skills, and I also think he's the most suited to the way the game is travelling at the moment with his willingness to stay involved in a running chain of play. He's a busy player, and that means he'll regularly be making things happen.

This is probably the key reason that Jagga sits at number one for me.

 

[Coona Blues]

It's not in isolation too, we've essentially gone from 12 & 14 to 3 & 38.

If we find a player at 38 we're laughing

We can definitely find a good, suitable player at #38. There are multiple talls who will last that long in the draft, as well as a couple of likely role players at either end.

As our phantom draft unfolds, my biggest fear reverts to the bid for Ben Camporeale. There are not many viable centre square mids our side of the first round, and a few clubs with a possible priority to add some midfield grunt do not enter the draft until later. Not saying we would give Ben up, and the bids would likely be unsuccessful, but we certainly will be relying on “good will” to give us a pick prior to a bid.

I am certain Ben is better than #38 in this draft, so it will be fascinating to watch play out. I have every faith in Austin to get our best practical outcome, and plenty of contingencies will be in place during the draft proper.

I just see a young, developing KPD as almost essential for our future defence, and with a number of decent prospects, led by Clancy Dennis for mine, it would be a travesty to miss out. Harry O’Farrell is a decent prospect too and has a link as most of us are aware, but he is a beanpole and will be exceptionally slow burn to be AFL ready

 

[marcmurphy3]

Maybe a bit of it might be psychological as well. Their midfield looks set. Rucks O.K. Go all in for Tauru/Armstrong with 6 & 8 at this draft and give away your future 1st and say "we're ready to go now,".

As you said it's a risky strategy. Can't act like a basket case forever playing for and protecting draft picks though.

Yeah, but even best-case scenario and they improve. They probably end up with a pick between 5-10. So, they trade next year's pick for a worse pick this year and downgrade 6 to 2 for the pleasure.

 

[marcmurphy3]

This is probably the key reason that Jagga sits at number one for me.

I'm settled on Jagga too. Doubt I'll change my mind but trying not to get emotionally attached.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Yeah, but even best-case scenario and they improve. They probably end up with a pick between 5-10. So, they trade next year's pick for a worse pick this year and downgrade 6 to 2 for the pleasure.

Agree but it's as much about getting a gun 2nd pick this year that fits their needs. They don't really need another mid (as a priority) so either take Tauru at 2 or trade down and hope that he's there at 6. If he is then they are effectively trading their future 1st in a weaker draft for 8 in a stronger draft + Tigers 2025 2nd which will be the first pick if the 2nd round.

If you could guarantee that Tauru would still be there at 6 (Demons?) And they thought that he was their man then you'd seriously consider it .

 

[Bletch]

The North/Tauru situation is a little like GWS/Cadman a couple of years back. Cadman was never a number one pick. But he was what GWS were after. Time will tell if that pays off.

North now have the option of picking the guy they want at 2, or trying to finagle a deal that gets the same guy at a lower pick, and a bonus pick to go with it. But that pick is a bonus. Whether it's 10, 11, 18, or 24. I can't see Richmond giving them 10 or 11 in this scenario. Richmond need multiple top end picks more than anything. If North want 10 or 11 as part of this deal, then they're going to have to pay for it imo.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

I'm settled on Jagga too. Doubt I'll change my mind but trying not to get emotionally attached.

I’ve got emotionally attached to 3 of them so far and there’s still 4 weeks to go ….

 

[HereComesJuddy]

I think the top 3 (available) are Lalor, FOS and Jagga. Whichever 1 is available at our pick I think it will be a no brainer

 

[Coona Blues]

I think Draper's decision making and delivery can be poor at times, and I think his handballs in general play are consistently loopy and hang in the air a very long time. And I think the problem there is that his strengths - clean hands, burst, top speed, instincts to take the game on - can all be "undone" if his next disposal is either poor or poorly directed.

Not necessarily anything that can't be fixed - but as we see with most players, just cause something is academically fixable, there's no guarantee it'll actually get better. By all accounts he's a hard worker, so maybe given time he'll be fine, but as I said, of the top group I think the issues in his game are the ones that have the greatest potential to limit his effectiveness.

I remain fascinated how casual watchers can pick apart proven quality players on a whim to support an instantly acquired preference.

Draper is a favourite of mine due to a.body of work. He was an underage All Australian last year and SA’s MVP. His 2024 season was ravaged by injury and yet as health and fitness improved was an integral part of a senior midfield at SANFL level.

I am “happy” with a number of the prospects who may be available to us. My desire is for a genuine centre square mid with great hands in close and good vision, the willingness to work defensively is a must to be incorporated in our midfield. Draper and Smith stand out in that area for me among the higher rated prospects. Burst, good accumulation and good to great kicking is also a requirement. None of the top half dozen are superior kicks out of a stoppage contest. Few players are, there are only a handful in the entire AFL. Plenty are adequate to quality kicks in broken play or when they have a yard or two to spare to balance and spot up a target. Draper is certainly in that category.

The only one of the top half dozen I am dismissing is Langford, and that is not on ability or projected output. The bloke is slower than the others in the mix and as such it would be hypocritical for us to draft him when parting company with Chugga and Bot to free up room for “power and run”. Also Langford is a forward leaning hybrid and not prominent on the non negotiable defensive requirements of our midfield.

We need a player who is partly POD and to complement our current group of mids, offering what we are lacking in. The other requirement will be to contribute heavily to our next generation, post Cripps and Hewett in the middle, while being mindful that we will have a young “bull” in Cody Walker joining in a couple of years.

We have taken the opportunity to grab a high draft pick, which we are likely to struggle to do for up to a decade. The now and the future need equal consideration here. Sounds increasingly likely Lalor and FOS will be gone before our pick. Surely our best options are Smith and Draper to add a legitimate 15 year prospect who adds both ball winning and running power.

I know Soapy chose Langford in our Phantom, but the resultant push on here is just crazy. Langford could be the best of his draft class, legitimately, I am not doubting “judges” who like him. He just doesn’t fit our dynamic as it sits and the collective requirements of a modern midfield.

We also need to accept the 90+% chance Lalor and O’Sullivan are gone at our pick. I do not buy in to the media rhetoric that we traded up specifically for FOS, and the predictable BS that him nit being there will be a failure or miscalculation on our part.