Analysis 2024 National Draft

Who do you want at our first pick?

  • Bo Allan

    Votes: 5 1.2%
  • Joe Berry

    Votes: 29 7.2%
  • Tobie Travaglia

    Votes: 15 3.7%
  • Harry Armstrong

    Votes: 7 1.7%
  • Jobe Shanahan

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Xavier Lindsay

    Votes: 5 1.2%
  • Taj Hotton

    Votes: 11 2.7%
  • Other

    Votes: 14 3.5%
  • Sid Draper

    Votes: 132 32.8%
  • Finn O'Sullivan

    Votes: 55 13.6%
  • Sam Lalor

    Votes: 30 7.4%
  • Josh Smillie

    Votes: 3 0.7%
  • Jagga Smith

    Votes: 97 24.1%

  • Total voters
    403
  • This poll will close: .

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The North/Tauru situation is a little like GWS/Cadman a couple of years back. Cadman was never a number one pick. But he was what GWS were after. Time will tell if that pays off.

North now have the option of picking the guy they want at 2, or trying to finagle a deal that gets the same guy at a lower pick, and a bonus pick to go with it. But that pick is a bonus. Whether it's 10, 11, 18, or 24. I can't see Richmond giving them 10 or 11 in this scenario. Richmond need multiple top end picks more than anything. If North want 10 or 11 as part of this deal, then they're going to have to pay for it imo.

I think Richmond have a powerful narrative by landing the next Martin/Cotchin pairing to lead the rebuild, which could work in North's favour. Lalor/O'Sullivan is that narrative, and it could very well be reality too.

Take those 2 as the headliners and then add 5 more 1st Rders could be their strategy imo. I think they will trade 6&11 for 2. Maybe some low grade future swaps to make either team happier. I think 2 for 6&11 suits both teams.
 
Playing devils advocate here but was our midfield too slow when we went on our run in 2023 and won finals?

Surely the Lions midfield is too slow. They won the grand final with a starting midfield of Darcy Fort, Lochie Neale, Josh Dunkley and Marcus Ashcroft with Berry and Mccluggage on the wings. No blinding pace there. Just footballers with clean hands, a will to win and good decision makers. Hawks triple flag team was the same.

I'm a long way from being an expert and I think that Langford might not be our best outcome, but gee he looks like an excellent long term footballer.

All of us non experts are more than welcome to have an opinion. It’s poor form to attack others for having an opinion about another player, particularly if that player looks to be a genuine top liner.
I can’t help but think Langford would improve our ball movement speed because he can hit targets 55-60m away.
 
I'm not sure how this narrative of Draper is/might be Dow has taken hold and he might be a bust.

He has the deepest resume of anyone in the draft.

U16 SA title winning Captain.

U18 underage year State MVP, All Australian, Captain and BOG in Premiership in Colts, and 3 SANFL games.

U18 senior year All Australian after injury through early season, SA Captain, then starred in SANFL Seniors after the U18 Championships.

He is not just "fast" while the others are "real players". Sid the Mid has been a star footballer his whole journey. I'd be rapt with him at our pick.

I'm not sure how people having opinions suddenly becomes a "narrative".

Every draft there are players with strong resumes who, to put it bluntly, don't make the grade when they progress to AFL level.

I also haven't seen many, if anyone, suggesting that Draper is a guaranteed bust, or a poor choice. Nobody seems to be saying he should be taken in the second round. There are some who simply see more risk, comparatively, versus a number of his fellow top 10 candidates. He deserves to be in the conversation, but it is a conversation.

Personally - if we pick him, he's got my full support and I'll be hoping that he continues to develop into a wonderful player for us. The same goes for whoever we draft. I've got my pre-draft preferences based on limited viewing, but once we call a name then they're a Blue and that's that.
 

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I'm not sure how people having opinions suddenly becomes a "narrative".

Every draft there are players with strong resumes who, to put it bluntly, don't make the grade when they progress to AFL level.

I also haven't seen many, if anyone, suggesting that Draper is a guaranteed bust, or a poor choice. Nobody seems to be saying he should be taken in the second round. There are some who simply see more risk, comparatively, versus a number of his fellow top 10 candidates. He deserves to be in the conversation, but it is a conversation.

Personally - if we pick him, he's got my full support and I'll be hoping that he continues to develop into a wonderful player for us. The same goes for whoever we draft. I've got my pre-draft preferences based on limited viewing, but once we call a name then they're a Blue and that's that.

Don't take it personal Balls, i didn't quote you. Just adding my 2c here and there as i read through this thread and enjoy this period.:thumbsu:
 
You get a number of picks based on the number of available spots on your list. The primary list can be up to 38 players, but picks are also limited by the total number of primary + rookie - 42 maximum (not including Cat-B).

So, right now, we have 31 players on our primary list (including Haynes), and we have 4 rookies. 38-31=7. And 42-(31+4)=7. We have seven available slots. We only had six selections in rounds 1-4 after the trade period, so to get to seven, we add a round 5 selection - pick 89.

If somehow we lost more players (unlikely, they're all contracted), then more spots would open, in rounds 6, 7... which would end up getting to those picks in the 100s.

Theoretically, if we delisted every player on the list, and only had one pick per round, the draft would be extended to 38 rounds! If we were premiers that year, our first pick would be 18 and our last pick would be pick 684 :)

Also worth noting that prior to delisting S Durds and the 2 Carrolls the other day, we only had 4 free slots. If we'd gone to the draft in that state, we would only have had the first four of our picks available (picks 69 and 72 would have been lost).
thanks so much for that !!
 
O’Sullivan family of the belief Finn will end up at Tigers with North trading pick 2 to Richmond
Do we think there is any likelihood that Richmond may take the Suns approach and draft Smith and FOS given they played juniors together? Similar to the Anderson / Rowell approach? Do we know if Smith / FOS are close? Or am i making something up there?
 
The North/Tauru situation is a little like GWS/Cadman a couple of years back. Cadman was never a number one pick. But he was what GWS were after. Time will tell if that pays off.

North now have the option of picking the guy they want at 2, or trying to finagle a deal that gets the same guy at a lower pick, and a bonus pick to go with it. But that pick is a bonus. Whether it's 10, 11, 18, or 24. I can't see Richmond giving them 10 or 11 in this scenario. Richmond need multiple top end picks more than anything. If North want 10 or 11 as part of this deal, then they're going to have to pay for it imo.
Exactly, unless north make out like bandits, just take Tauru at 2. They're at a stage where they need to start positional picking the best player outside of midfielders. They're lacking at both ends, so address that. Picked at 2 or 6 itll be the same player.
 
Do we think there is any likelihood that Richmond may take the Suns approach and draft Smith and FOS given they played juniors together? Similar to the Anderson / Rowell approach? Do we know if Smith / FOS are close? Or am i making something up there?
I think GC vs Melb based had a bit to do with that
 
Think it would have to be something like this. Or 6 and 18 or 20. I just don't see the Tigers that desperate for pick 2, that they would give away another top pick. Every Tiger supporter I speak to says 'keep the 8 picks'.

And the big issue for North is, what if the Dees grab Tauru at 5?
If Norf have their hearts set on Tauru, they may not take the risk to trade down - especially as the Demons are likely to pick up a key with either pick 5 or 9.

I don't mind Windows' suggestion of them trading with us - something like pick 3 and 38 for pick 2 and a f2 or 3 - which eliminates the risk of a Campo bid before 38, and almost certainly eliminates the risk of losing FOS (if that's who we're targeting).

Norf still get Tauru and another pick in the draft before their next pick in the 60's.

Still reckon that they'll end up trading with the Tiggs though - 2 for 6 and 18 seems pretty reasonable. Norf may think that if they miss out on Tauru, they can still jag Armstrong at 6.
 
I was going to say the same thing as mentioned above - North could trade down to 6 but chances are Tauru goes at 5 to Dees anyway so they may not risk it. Would love to see Norf hold 2 and pick Tauru, then we snaffled Jagga. But gut feel is that the club likes FOS most given his balance, impact and ceiling. Hope there's no nepotism in the conversation or thinking in any way (given FOS and Walsh connection).

Would love to peek inside Austin's brain to see.

Not long now though, I suppose.
 

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I was going to say the same thing as mentioned above - North could trade down to 6 but chances are Tauru goes at 5 to Dees anyway so they may not risk it. Would love to see Norf hold 2 and pick Tauru, then we snaffled Jagga. But gut feel is that the club likes FOS most given his balance, impact and ceiling. Hope there's no nepotism in the conversation or thinking in any way (given FOS and Walsh connection).

Would love to peek inside Austin's brain to see.

Not long now though, I suppose.
Nepotism? Putting aside Walsh would have zero input, How well do you know your second cousin?
 
Do we think there is any likelihood that Richmond may take the Suns approach and draft Smith and FOS given they played juniors together? Similar to the Anderson / Rowell approach? Do we know if Smith / FOS are close? Or am i making something up there?
FOS is a weird one, where he played Coates U18s for Oakleigh, but played for Vic Country.

Was teammates with both Smith (Oakleigh) and Lalor (Vic Country). For what it's worth, Lalor and FOS rate each other as the #1 pick.
 
I was going to say the same thing as mentioned above - North could trade down to 6 but chances are Tauru goes at 5 to Dees anyway so they may not risk it. Would love to see Norf hold 2 and pick Tauru, then we snaffled Jagga. But gut feel is that the club likes FOS most given his balance, impact and ceiling. Hope there's no nepotism in the conversation or thinking in any way (given FOS and Walsh connection).

Would love to peek inside Austin's brain to see.

Not long now though, I suppose.

Extremely unlikely to be a factor imo...
 
The only reason we would do that deal is if we do not want to take Draper. Surely Adelaide would know this so I doubt they would get sucked into giving up anything. Just good fortune for them a local is in their pick range.
I think Austin and co have been very good at keeping their plans under wraps so wouldn't surprise me if Adelaide wasn't certain on who we would take. I'd be leaving that pick selection to the last second to see if Adelaide doesn't get nervous and pick up the phone. That's said, I like the look of Draper for us anyway. Seems like a good fit for our needs. Austin will have 2 players I'm sure they have narrowed it down to that they want at pick 3 knowing one of them will get to us.
 
I was going to say the same thing as mentioned above - North could trade down to 6 but chances are Tauru goes at 5 to Dees anyway so they may not risk it. Would love to see Norf hold 2 and pick Tauru, then we snaffled Jagga. But gut feel is that the club likes FOS most given his balance, impact and ceiling. Hope there's no nepotism in the conversation or thinking in any way (given FOS and Walsh connection).

Would love to peek inside Austin's brain to see.

Not long now though, I suppose.
I’d do it in a heartbeat if I was North, worst case they get Langford then go tall with 18.
Sheezel, Duursma, McKercher are all dynamic and versatile so Langford could still fit.
 
I think Richmond have a powerful narrative by landing the next Martin/Cotchin pairing to lead the rebuild, which could work in North's favour. Lalor/O'Sullivan is that narrative, and it could very well be reality too.

Take those 2 as the headliners and then add 5 more 1st Rders could be their strategy imo. I think they will trade 6&11 for 2. Maybe some low grade future swaps to make either team happier. I think 2 for 6&11 suits both teams.
Given the backlash WCE supporters had about the 12 and 14 for pick 3, not hard to imagine how the rabid pack from Punt Rd will react if that deal goes through. Not saying it won't - your logic is sound - but I don't think it's a great deal for Richmond at all.
 
Still four weeks to go. So far I have been totally intoxicated by Drapers pace. Then I was mesmerised by Jaggas

slipperiness. Now have settled on FOS, just think some of us are not taking his injury problems this year into account

enough. Having watched most of his '23 season highlights videos, just feel he is the best player for us. Could see him

playing mostly across half-forward next year. He is a very good kick at goal, both set-shot and in general play. Has really

nice hands, good above his head for his size and his handballing is very good. Looks to have some burst from stoppage, not

Draper like. Maybe as quick as Walsh, definitely quicker than Cerra and the rest of our mids imo.
 
Given the backlash WCE supporters had about the 12 and 14 for pick 3, not hard to imagine how the rabid pack from Punt Rd will react if that deal goes through. Not saying it won't - your logic is sound - but I don't think it's a great deal for Richmond at all.
I think the real backlash was for giving up a first round pick for a 27 yr old B grader like Baker. Should have been their 2nd rounder at best
 
I think Richmond have a powerful narrative by landing the next Martin/Cotchin pairing to lead the rebuild, which could work in North's favour. Lalor/O'Sullivan is that narrative, and it could very well be reality too.

Take those 2 as the headliners and then add 5 more 1st Rders could be their strategy imo. I think they will trade 6&11 for 2. Maybe some low grade future swaps to make either team happier. I think 2 for 6&11 suits both teams.

Just a side note Herald Sun posted Richmond to send pick 6&10 for North Pick 2 & F1st
 

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Analysis 2024 National Draft

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