Analysis 2024 National Draft

Who do you want at our first pick?

  • Bo Allan

    Votes: 5 1.1%
  • Joe Berry

    Votes: 26 5.9%
  • Tobie Travaglia

    Votes: 14 3.2%
  • Harry Armstrong

    Votes: 7 1.6%
  • Jobe Shanahan

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Xavier Lindsay

    Votes: 4 0.9%
  • Taj Hotton

    Votes: 11 2.5%
  • Other

    Votes: 17 3.9%
  • Sid Draper

    Votes: 134 30.4%
  • Finn O'Sullivan

    Votes: 69 15.6%
  • Sam Lalor

    Votes: 36 8.2%
  • Josh Smillie

    Votes: 4 0.9%
  • Jagga Smith

    Votes: 114 25.9%

  • Total voters
    441
  • This poll will close: .

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Jagga just strikes me as one of the smartest footballers you could possibly get. His positioning, planning, reaction time, decision making and ability to evade opponents in a phone booth and dispose of the ball quickly is just unmatched.

You look at his physique and think it’s a weakness but he is just so damn difficult to lay a glove on that it barely matters. Opponents may break a few of his tackles in his early years which would be the only concern.

What I love is how he gets involved in transition footy. He creates overlap run and when working alongside someone like Walsh I
think it will only amplify their strengths, rather than be redundant.

I see him as someone who can enhance our ability to cleanly exit stoppages and be part of a unit that can improve the flow of our transition footy and thereby give Charlie, Harry and Ashton more opportunities for 1on1 contests.


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Shouldn't discount decision making as a factor, Jagga is a 360° player who looks like he's operating in bullet time whereas Draper undoes a lot of his good work by running into trouble before dishing off those loopy handballs
I think decision making is one of the few things that can be seriously improved on with experience. Imagine Draper with AFL experience and confidence who finds the space that he can do with his speed and gut running - then with the ability to slow down and make the right decision. Getting into space is the hard part, he can improve what he does when he has the space.
 

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Personally I have concerns about what Lalor and Finn can deliver in the first couple of years, Lalor with injury potential and FOS just due to lack of volume.
An elite midfielder will play about 300 games spanning about 10 years or so.
One shouldn’t be too concerned about the initial impact of the first 1 or 2 years as their bodies adjust to AFL seniors aerobic fitnesses and physical maturity demands. Every youngster will adapt at their own peace , it’s absolutely essential they have proper mentoring and support during the journey.
 
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An elite midfielder will play about 300 games spanning about 10 years or so.
One shouldn’t be too concerned about the initial impact of the first 1 or 2 years as their bodies adjust to AFL seniors aerobic fitnesses and physical maturity demands. Every youngsters will adapt at their own peace abut it’s essential they have proper mentoring and support during the journey.
See my post in the context of the discussion leading to it.

I am of the belief we need to focus on the best player out of the consensus top 4-5 picks that can deliver in the next 3 years to deliver a premiership while we have Cripps / Curnow / McKay / Weitering in their prime.
 
Reckon North should accept Saints trade offer :

1.Richmond - Lalor
2.Brisbane - Ashcroft
3.St.Kilda - Smith
4.Carlton - O’Sullivan
5.Adelaide - Draper
6.Melbourne - Langford
7.Richmond - Smillie
8.North - Tauru
9.St.Kilda - Reid
10.Melbourne - Armstrong

*North now hold Saints 2025 1st pick
I could honestly see Richmond taking Tauru at 7
 
I think decision making is one of the few things that can be seriously improved on with experience. Imagine Draper with AFL experience and confidence who finds the space that he can do with his speed and gut running - then with the ability to slow down and make the right decision. Getting into space is the hard part, he can improve what he does when he has the space.
A player either has good footy IQ, meaning decision making , vision, reading and creating the play or just doesn’t, it’s a trait that just can’t be taught, it’s an innate talent, natural and can’t be replicated.
 
A player either has good footy IQ, meaning decision making , vision, reading the play or just doesn’t , this trait just can’t be taught, it’s innate talent that’s natural and can’t be replicated.
I disagree. While some absolutely can't. I think it's naive to say that players can't improve their footy IQ and decision making and in fact I would say that is absolutely farcical.
 
A player either has good footy IQ, meaning decision making , vision, reading and creating the play or just doesn’t, it’s a trait that just can’t be taught, it’s an innate talent, natural and can’t be replicated.
Tend to agree with this.

Very rare that a player goes from making poor decisions under the pressure of junior footy, to making good decisions under the significantly higher level of pressure in AFL footy.
 
Will be interesting to see how he goes. Struggled to dominate in a comp where he has a massive size advantage which will be lessened when he gets into the AFL. Will he just become smallish KPP like Francis or Fogarty.

Which is another reason they should just bite the bullet and put 6 on the table for North in a trade up for 2.
Seems as though after trading with GC , they believe they can have it all …
 

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We already have Brisbane's F2
Ahhh … the joys of instagram :)

Don’t suppose they have another one?

Seeing myself out…

angry kristen wiig GIF
 
Am I going mad…(rhetorical)

…or did I just see a report from Cal that we've traded 38 for Brisbanes F2?
3weeks ago

11. Brisbane gets Pick 34 and 66. Carlton gets Pick 73 and the Lions’ future second-round pick.

12. Carlton gets Pick 14. Hawthorn gets the Blues’ future first and second round picks.
 
I think decision making is one of the few things that can be seriously improved on with experience. Imagine Draper with AFL experience and confidence who finds the space that he can do with his speed and gut running - then with the ability to slow down and make the right decision. Getting into space is the hard part, he can improve what he does when he has the space.

Can't agree with this, FBI - it's the difference between the Sam Mitchells and Nick Grahams of the world
 
Can't agree with this, FBI - it's the difference between the Sam Mitchells and Nick Grahams of the world
As I said in my post, clearly there are some who can't - i.e Young's greatest deficiency is that he has not improved his decision making, but I don't think that suggests it cannot be done.

Particularly for a player like Draper who finds himself in space - decision making opportunities will arise because of that space. The difference in someone like Graham and his average athletic capabilities means he was always under pressure and never able to make better decisions. Draper should be able to generate both the physical and mental space to allow him to make better decisions and I think that will develop with experience.

Further, I think context matters. You look at players like Young and Graham and say they never improved their IQ but they weren't given the environment to do so. Neither have substantial AFL experience and experience at VFL level may actually have a negative influence on AFL level footy IQ because they may have more time or space at VFL level that compound their decision making flaws under higher pressure at AFL level. I think if you take any player playing 200+ games at AFL level their football IQ will increase overtime, it has to. In the case of a player like Draper his physical capabilities and talent give him the opportunity to come in and play AFL, even if his decision making may not currently be the best, but playing at the level and using his physical capabilities and talent to get him out of trouble at AFL level will allow him opportunities to grow and develop, that is not the same as a player like Graham or Young.

I think there are clearly opportunities to develop Footy IQ at AFL level and would say there has to be as a fact of life.
 
As I said in my post, clearly there are some who can't - i.e Young's greatest deficiency is that he has not improved his decision making, but I don't think that suggests it cannot be done.

Particularly for a player like Draper who finds himself in space - decision making opportunities will arise because of that space. The difference in someone like Graham and his average athletic capabilities means he was always under pressure and never able to make better decisions. Draper should be able to generate both the physical and mental space to allow him to make better decisions and I think that will develop with experience.

Further, I think context matters. You look at players like Young and Graham and say they never improved their IQ but they weren't given the environment to do so. Neither have substantial AFL experience and experience at VFL level may actually have a negative influence on AFL level footy IQ because they may have more time or space at VFL level that compound their decision making flaws under higher pressure at AFL level. I think if you take any player playing 200+ games at AFL level their football IQ will increase overtime, it has to. In the case of a player like Draper his physical capabilities and talent give him the opportunity to come in and play AFL, even if his decision making may not currently be the best, but playing at the level and using his physical capabilities and talent to get him out of trouble at AFL level will allow him opportunities to grow and develop, that is not the same as a player like Graham or Young.

I think there are clearly opportunities to develop Footy IQ at AFL level and would say there has to be as a fact of life.

I don't think you can predict improvement in that space. It's not like physical strength, where you can put a player in a gym and 12 months later they're wrestling Tom Hawkins. It's not like goal-kicking, where you can break down and rebuild a set shot routine and teach a player to account for all the environmental factors.

Yes, some players will improve their decision making over the course of their career. But it's going to be over the course of their whole career, and it could be anything from a 1% improvement to something more significant, though far more likely to be on the lower end. It's earned through experience.

Yes, you can teach a player where to look and which players they should target when they're kicking inside 50. You can try to teach them to recognise when a gap is a genuine gap and when the time it takes the ball to get there means it's going to be an intercept or a spoil instead.

But some players, and Jagga Smith appears to be one of them, just get it. He's always present, always watching, always active - he rarely has a moment where he switches off or sits back, when he doesn't have the ball he's working out where he can get the ball, and what his options will be once he has it. He's constantly aware of the state of play around him, where his exits are, how much time he's likely to have after he takes possession, which teammates are outside or goalside of their opponent and can receive a handball into space. He can look ahead and make snap judgements on whether a short lead should be honoured or if the opposition are in position to pick it off. And I highly doubt much of it is conscious - his speed of thought is lightning quick, which indicates that this is mostly predicated on instinct.

You might be able to teach and improve decision making in certain situations, but instinct can't be taught. Players with a lower base on that front will go their whole career trying to hone it, and still never come close to what Smith has by nature.

I'm happy with any of these kids, they're all potential stars. But Smith is the standout to me because he has what you can't teach...and anything else, you can teach.
 
Shouldn't discount decision making as a factor, Jagga is a 360° player who looks like he's operating in bullet time whereas Draper undoes a lot of his good work by running into trouble before dishing off those loopy handballs
In my view the most important traits for great midfielders are ball-finding ability, evasiveness, decision making and quick disposal from congestion - if they can run on and create overlap even better.

Smith is already showing these attributes and to me is the best of the lot, taking all these areas into account.

Reminds me of Simon Black, arguably one of if not the best midfielder in that Lions triple premiership era. Black's reaction time in getting the ball, disposal and 360° decision making left players in his wake. Interestingly, he was overlooked in his draft by many recruiters who thought he wasn't as quick as others and didn't get selected until pick 31!
 
As I said in my post, clearly there are some who can't - i.e Young's greatest deficiency is that he has not improved his decision making, but I don't think that suggests it cannot be done.

Particularly for a player like Draper who finds himself in space - decision making opportunities will arise because of that space. The difference in someone like Graham and his average athletic capabilities means he was always under pressure and never able to make better decisions. Draper should be able to generate both the physical and mental space to allow him to make better decisions and I think that will develop with experience.

Further, I think context matters. You look at players like Young and Graham and say they never improved their IQ but they weren't given the environment to do so. Neither have substantial AFL experience and experience at VFL level may actually have a negative influence on AFL level footy IQ because they may have more time or space at VFL level that compound their decision making flaws under higher pressure at AFL level. I think if you take any player playing 200+ games at AFL level their football IQ will increase overtime, it has to. In the case of a player like Draper his physical capabilities and talent give him the opportunity to come in and play AFL, even if his decision making may not currently be the best, but playing at the level and using his physical capabilities and talent to get him out of trouble at AFL level will allow him opportunities to grow and develop, that is not the same as a player like Graham or Young.

I think there are clearly opportunities to develop Footy IQ at AFL level and would say there has to be as a fact of life.
Whist I agree with you that players can improve their decision making in a professional environment where they are taught to do so... but, my question is to what extend?

Of course players don't improve at the same pace for any given skill, but wouldn't you prefer someone that already have a higher base.

So in my mind, Smith is still my preferred player at #3
 
Whist I agree with you that players can improve their decision making in a professional environment where they are taught to do so... but, my question is to what extend?

Of course players don't improve at the same pace for any given skill, but wouldn't you prefer someone that already have a higher base.

So in my mind, Smith is still my preferred player at #3
I think decision making can be improved a lot easier, and a lot more naturally, than for example improving pace or agility. If anything, pace and agility are likely to decrease overtime with a bigger body and more knocks and niggles. I have Draper and Jagga 1 and 2 because of their all around attributes, I just think if we're comparing solely between Draper's speed and Jagga's decision making (which we're not), I think one of them is a lot harder to build - and I think that's the pace.
 
Jagga just strikes me as one of the smartest footballers you could possibly get. His positioning, planning, reaction time, decision making and ability to evade opponents in a phone booth and dispose of the ball quickly is just unmatched.

You look at his physique and think it’s a weakness but he is just so damn difficult to lay a glove on that it barely matters. Opponents may break a few of his tackles in his early years which would be the only concern.

What I love is how he gets involved in transition footy. He creates overlap run and when working alongside someone like Walsh I
think it will only amplify their strengths, rather than be redundant.

I see him as someone who can enhance our ability to cleanly exit stoppages and be part of a unit that can improve the flow of our transition footy and thereby give Charlie, Harry and Ashton more opportunities for 1on1 contests.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Exactly what I noticed, he doesn’t just give then jog he gives them goes hard to stay involved. Very much like Naicos


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
See my post in the context of the discussion leading to it.

I am of the belief we need to focus on the best player out of the consensus top 4-5 picks that can deliver in the next 3 years to deliver a premiership while we have Cripps / Curnow / McKay / Weitering in their prime.
Agree our window of opportunity for another premiership is the next 2 to 3 years, thence my difficultly understanding why Austin chose to not chase Houston, Perryman or Bailey Smith, any of which would have strengthen our team immediately.
Our two principle deficiencies are over reliance on Weitering in defense and lack of leg speed in the circle,
an eighteen year old youngster won't impact anywhere as much as would a mature bodied quality AFL player.
 

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Analysis 2024 National Draft

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