Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[Blue and Silver]

FOS won't get past North at 2.

I wouldn't be shocked if they ended up trading the pick to someone who picks FOS.

Giants doing a double pick trade to get up there

Pick 15 & 21 for 7

Pick 7 & 16 for 2

On Pixel 7a using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Fair enough

That's just my opinion, mind. Just don't let them know that and make a trade with them.

 

[marcmurphy3]

SEN Phantom Draft has Richmond choosing Smith at 1? Interesting.

I’d agree with everyone here saying Draper would be a better fit.

I would ignore that phantom draft. No reference to any intel. It's simply based on what the author thinks. Doesn't look like whoever wrote that has been speaking to anyone.

 

[koutashoulda1_1]

You're right.

If AFL scouting and recruiting is anything like American pro sports (and I honestly don't know) then chances are that at this stage every player with a high chance of drafting and their primary care giver is on a first name basis with the scouts and has had a conversation or two (or more )with the higher up recruiting staff at the clubs.

It's so much more than just watching them play and assessing them on that.

Yep (not that I have any clue either) but talking to Draper is 1) due diligence with FOS very likely off the board, 2) extra die diligence given pick 2 might change hands and who knows what happens, and 3) why not put in work early to lure away from crows after 3 years or when free agency comes along. Good relationship building

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Let the Crows have him, I'm worried about his injury long term.

What injury? The one that's only been reported by a mickey mouse website?

 

[YeoShuey]

I would ignore that phantom draft. No reference to any intel. It's simply based on what the author thinks. Doesn't look like whoever wrote that has been speaking to anyone.

Agreed.

 

[HarryFlashman]

I wouldn't be shocked if they ended up trading the pick to someone who picks FOS.

Giants doing a double pick trade to get up there

Pick 15 & 21 for 7

Pick 7 & 16 for 2

On Pixel 7a using BigFooty.com mobile app

15,16,21 for 2 is a monster stretch given how deep the draft is - if they could get to 7 with 15 & 21 they would take that win.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

What injury? The one that's only been reported by a mickey mouse website?

As if I read everything about every player that pops up on here, I just took it for granted that he had a back injury. If it's true, I'd steer clear.

 

[GoBlues!]

If Lalor and FOS go #1 and #2 on draft nite, you wonder whether there's a possibility the Cows may come a knockin' looking for a pick swap if they're nervous we'll take Draper. Chances are they've already got contingency plans in place - but if they have their minds set on him, they could potentially throw us a few crumbs for a pick swap - something like a f3 coming our way.

Dodoro of course gifted the Cats an early 2nd round pick last year just to move up one place in order to get Caddy - so it's not unprecedented.

Having said that, if we were planning on selecting Draper, we'd tell them thanks but no thanks.

If FOS is not available at our pick and we’re looking for a player with burst speed and pace, you’d think we go with Draper as that player to complement our midfield.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Responses from Heraldsun Q&A chat that might be relevant to us:

Q: Any word on who Carlton are interested in with pick 38 if they don't have to use it on a Campo bid?
A: Really depends who is left when you get to that range in the draft but word is they're looking at rebounding half-backs and potentially a key defender. The mail is that the Saints could be every chance to bid on Ben Camporeale before Carlton gets to that second selection, though.

Q: Who do you personally think Carlton will select with their number 3 pick?
A: I've still got Finn O'Sullivan as the favourite, but I'm definitely not ruling out Sid Draper.

Q: Could we see Carlton slide back at all if whoever they're targetting is taken before Pick 3?
A: Don't think that will happen. Any of Finn O'Sullivan, Sid Draper or Jagga Smith would suit the Blues nicely and at least one of them will be available

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-phantom-draft-2024-chris-cavanagh-maps-out-the-top-35-picks-on-the-afl-draft/news-story/fe77a680b472865e6c8cdb836ca733c0

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Responses from Heraldsun Q&A chat that might be relevant to us:

Q: Any word on who Carlton are interested in with pick 38 if they don't have to use it on a Campo bid?
A: Really depends who is left when you get to that range in the draft but word is they're looking at rebounding half-backs and potentially a key defender. The mail is that the Saints could be every chance to bid on Ben Camporeale before Carlton gets to that second selection, though.

Q: Who do you personally think Carlton will select with their number 3 pick?
A: I've still got Finn O'Sullivan as the favourite, but I'm definitely not ruling out Sid Draper.

Q: Could we see Carlton slide back at all if whoever they're targetting is taken before Pick 3?
A: Don't think that will happen. Any of Finn O'Sullivan, Sid Draper or Jagga Smith would suit the Blues nicely and at least one of them will be available

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-phantom-draft-2024-chris-cavanagh-maps-out-the-top-35-picks-on-the-afl-draft/news-story/fe77a680b472865e6c8cdb836ca733c0

Yep, it's all shaping up for:
1. Lalor (Rich)
2. Tauru (Nor)
3. FOS (Car)
4. Draper (Ade)

Personally I would want us to take Draper there, but if I was a betting man, that would be what it likely ends up as. Maybe even be a very equitable position as each of those picks could arguably be that clubs' number 1 option on its Big Board right now.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Yep (not that I have any clue either) but talking to Draper is 1) due diligence with FOS very likely off the board, 2) extra die diligence given pick 2 might change hands and who knows what happens, and 3) why not put in work early to lure away from crows after 3 years or when free agency comes along. Good relationship building

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

You'd think the Club would have talked to the Campo boys, at length, about Draper....

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Yep, it's all shaping up for:
1. Lalor (Rich)
2. Tauru (Nor)
3. FOS (Car)
4. Draper (Ade)

Personally I would want us to take Draper there, but if I was a betting man, that would be what it likely ends up as. Maybe even be a very equitable position as each of those picks could arguably be that clubs' number 1 option on its Big Board right now.

I've been watching a lot of footage of Smith.... whilst I'd prefer Draper (more attacking and explosive), hard to think Smith won't be a serious player too.

Just one of those guys who always has time...

 

[RPCB]

Responses from Heraldsun Q&A chat that might be relevant to us:

Q: Any word on who Carlton are interested in with pick 38 if they don't have to use it on a Campo bid?
A: Really depends who is left when you get to that range in the draft but word is they're looking at rebounding half-backs and potentially a key defender. The mail is that the Saints could be every chance to bid on Ben Camporeale before Carlton gets to that second selection, though.

Q: Many Phantoms have North taking Tauru. How strong have links actually been or are people guessing because North need KPP? Anyone else they are interested in?
A: I’ve spoken to a lot of people in the industry over the past week and I haven’t heard any names linked to North outside of Tauru. He’s clearly the one they’re eyeing and suits them best among that crop of top-10 players

Q: Who do you personally think Carlton will select with their number 3 pick?
A: I've still got Finn O'Sullivan as the favourite, but I'm definitely not ruling out Sid Draper.

Q: Could we see Carlton slide back at all if whoever they're targetting is taken before Pick 3?
A: Don't think that will happen. Any of Finn O'Sullivan, Sid Draper or Jagga Smith would suit the Blues nicely and at least one of them will be available

Q: Which top midfielder is the fastest? Carlton needs speed in their midfield; will they target that player?
A: Expect the Blues to grab one of Finn O'Sullivan, Sid Draper or Jagga Smith with their first pick. All three are quite explosive and light on their feet, which is what Carlton needs, as you say.

Q: Should Carlton fans be worried about Finn O'Sullivan's injury record or is he just that good anyway?
A: Not too much concern for mine. A couple of his injuries this year were simple contact ones with his finger and his thumb, so they’re not as concerning as repeat soft tissue injuries or knees would be.

Q: Concerned about FOS lack of production. Yes he's high impact but disposals are really low. Is this an issue? How much impact did injuries really have on him?
A: It’s true that Finn O’Sullivan doesn’t have as many runs on the board as others this year, because of the injuries which meant he couldn’t really get going at full steam. I believe his finger which he had surgery on was quite sore all year, which wouldn’t have helped when he was out on the park. He’s a high-impact player, though, who doesn’t need 40 touches to have an impact on games. Some of his matches this year were better than the stats sheet suggested, including when he played VFL for Richmond.

Q: Is Sam Lalor pretty much a lock for Richmond at Pick One?
A: That's the feeling from just about every rival club you speak to, yep. He had an interupted year with injury but he's a quality player who can be a real matchwinner.

Q: What's the latest news with north finding a suitor for their pick 2? Has Richmond ruled themselves out?
A: I'd be shocked it if was Richmond now, it won't be Carlton, I can't see it being St Kilda and there's not a lot of incentive for Melbourne to move up. Adelaide (pick 4) is the one to watch, but that looks more unlikely than likely.

Q: Is North Melbourne taking a punt if it takes Tauru at pick 2 or is he really what the Roos need? Seems a big price to pay for potential...
A: I do think it’s a bit of a punt, because Tauru is raw. But if North doesn’t take him at pick 2, someone else will in the first seven or eight selections, so it is not a huge stretch. Don’t expect too much from him next year, but got traits that suggest he could be a serious AFL player in three or four years’ time.

Q: If Rich r still deciding between FOS / Lalor for pick 1 as some people think, why is there a reluctance to trade up to pick 2 given it would mean they get both?
A: It seems to be between those two, yep, with Lalor still the favourite. The Tigers won't get both as their picks currently stand, but they'll still get a very good midfielder at pick 6 so there's not huge incentive to pay up to move up. It's a pretty even group of midfielders in that top 7 or 8 this year.

Q: Should Richmond do a pick swap with North to get the 2 absolute best midfielders in the draft (apart from Ashcroft)
A: I wouldn't, if it means giving up two first-round picks to get that selection. There's not much between the top 7 or 8 midfielders this year, so the Tigers should still get a gun one like Josh Smillie at pick 6. Let's not forget he was a leading contender to be pick 1 at the start of the year.

Q: Which midfielder do you think Carlton add with their first pick, Draper or O'Sullivan?
A: O'Sullivan's still the favourite but I wouldn't be ruling out Draper just yet.

Q: How likely are north going to take tauru at pick 2?
A: Highly.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-phantom-draft-2024-chris-cavanagh-maps-out-the-top-35-picks-on-the-afl-draft/news-story/fe77a680b472865e6c8cdb836ca733c0

The weirdest thing about St Kilda possibly bidding on Ben Camporeale that no one has asked is why is it only St Kilda that anyone suspects will bid on Ben? There are 16 other AFL clubs. SOS is incredibly predictable if he bids on Ben.

 

[Crippa#9]

The weirdest thing about St Kilda possibly bidding on Ben Camporeale that no one has asked is why is it only St Kilda that anyone suspects will bid on Ben? There are 16 other AFL clubs. SOS is incredibly predictable if he bids on Ben.

change the word predictable to one of spiteful / vindictive / bitter / resentful

 

[RPCB]

change the word predictable to one of spiteful / vindictive / bitter / resentful

Absolutely. Everyone knows SOS will bid, from our supporters, Saints supporters, media etc. People knew this months ago. He doesn’t have much of a poker face when it comes to list management.

 

[agro]

Hopefully he will be distracted come draft night and forget.

 

[TerryWallet]

I'm one of SOS's biggest critics. I've thought he's a shit bloke for decades. And he's got a real sickness with refusing to accept he can be wrong, like everyone else can be wrong.

In saying that, i have very little worry that he will bid on Ben Campo. Saints already have a slowish midfield and have just added McCrae and Carroll. And likely a mid or 2 with their early picks. I know he wouldn't be bidding with the intention of actually attaining him, but he has to uphold the image of actually drafting for StKilda's needs. Which of course he does(just with a larger dose than normal of ego and spite).

I'm very confident Ben gets past 38. Scott Campo is also a flag teammate.

 

[JuddgementDay]

I'm one of SOS's biggest critics. I've thought he's a shit bloke for decades. And he's got a real sickness with refusing to accept he can be wrong, like everyone else can be wrong.

In saying that, i have very little worry that he will bid on Ben Campo. Saints already have a slowish midfield and have just added McCrae and Carroll. And likely a mid or 2 with their early picks. I know he wouldn't be bidding with the intention of actually attaining him, but he has to uphold the image of actually drafting for StKilda's needs. Which of course he does(just with a larger dose than normal of ego and spite).

I'm very confident Ben gets past 38. Scott Campo is also a flag teammate.

With no father and son, where would you rate Ben and Lucas?

 

[Bletch]

I'm one of SOS's biggest critics. I've thought he's a shit bloke for decades. And he's got a real sickness with refusing to accept he can be wrong, like everyone else can be wrong.

In saying that, i have very little worry that he will bid on Ben Campo. Saints already have a slowish midfield and have just added McCrae and Carroll. And likely a mid or 2 with their early picks. I know he wouldn't be bidding with the intention of actually attaining him, but he has to uphold the image of actually drafting for StKilda's needs. Which of course he does(just with a larger dose than normal of ego and spite).

I'm very confident Ben gets past 38. Scott Campo is also a flag teammate.

Tend to agree. Add to that the Saints have an NGA prospect in Adrian Cole, who is likely to go around 40. We tend to see that teams with NGAs/FSs don't bid on others (I don't think we'll bid on Ashcroft for instance).

Port Adelaide on the other hand... have picks 29 and 36, and I figure would have absolutely no issue bidding on a local lad.

 

[Blue__Balls]

You'd think the Club would have talked to the Campo boys, at length, about Draper....

Sure, but there's only so much you're going to want to trust a 17yo when it comes to getting the inside word on his mate that you're considering drafting to the same club...

Dare I say it, you'd put more value on negative feedback than positive. Being alerted to red flags would be more helpful than "Oh yeah, he's an awesome bloke, works really hard etc. etc."

In terms of credibility of insight:

Scouts > his Coaches > the kid himself > his teammates > his teammates who know they're coming to Carlton > everyone on BF

 

[Blue__Balls]

Tend to agree. Add to that the Saints have an NGA prospect in Adrian Cole, who is likely to go around 40. We tend to see that teams with NGAs/FSs don't bid on others (I don't think we'll bid on Ashcroft for instance).

Port Adelaide on the other hand... have picks 29 and 36, and I figure would have absolutely no issue bidding on a local lad.

Could make the argument that bidding on Campo is just a smart play if it removes Carlton from the list of clubs who could bid on their NGA kid a smidge earlier than they'd like.

 

[Doro]

Watching Lalor highlights, if he did last to our pick I'd be a little worried how his body handles the step up to AFL intensity. He looks like one of those players that is always getting soft tissue injuries. We need his type, but not another constant rehabber.

 

[TerryWallet]

With no father and son, where would you rate Ben and Lucas?

There is no doubt that Ben in particular shut up shop pretty much after the Carnival. I doubt he would have done many interviews etc. He didn't need to. I think later F/S's aren't covered properly by other clubs. It's a bit different from Academy's. AFL is still pretty much a group of gentleman's agreements in many ways.

And he's probably a 30's type player anyway. He's got as many weaknesses and strengths. Which is typical of 2nd rd'ers.

We'll be getting him at reduced rates because of the intangibles of father/son, but he's not a "steal".

Lucas is a good late pick imo. Chance at being an AFL component in a team.

 

[HarryFlashman]

F/S picks are governed by a “gentlemen’s” agreement.
They aren’t messed with - literally only time anything has come up was Dodo & Sos & that was a laugh between mates.

Anyone who steps outside the agreement then opens themselves up to every other club, be a dick & anyone can take a shot at u & it will be seen as “fair game”.

It’s not worth it - there’s a lot of subtly around it, there’s plenty of “grey” but it’s pretty easy to tell if someone is being a “dick” & that falls outside a “gentlemen’s agreement”.