Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[bradfisher14]

The issue for North is that Tauru is clearly the best fit for them, but pick 2 is the only realistic way they can secure him. No one in the top 10 will cough up the required price to get pick 2 from North. So their choice is to either slightly reach for Tauru or take a mid at 2 and get back into the top 10 using their future first. Carlton and Adelaide won't trade their picks because they want one of the high-end mids. The rest of the clubs in the top 10 would most likely prefer to select Tauru unless North put a crazy offer on the table.

TL;DR - North basically have no choice but to take Tauru at 2, but I don't think it's too bad of a reach.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Surely Dees need to begin to prepare for life after Oliver and Trac noting both could be gone next end of next year.

I think Langford will be their first pick if Tauru is gone. They apparently love Tauru tho which has North sweating …

Plus Trac will be in Navy Blue in 2026

 

[GT619]

Yeah but who is it gonna be tomorrow...?

Joe Berry

 

[ferrisb]

Finn's average was taken from 4 games. In one of those he broke his thumb, another was coming back from a hip injury.

So you're saying that he missed half his games through injury. And was injured/coming back from injury in half the games he played?

FOS to Carlton confirmed...

 

[ferrisb]

I would like to envisiage seeing both Harry and Charley breaking left and right on the lead because our Pick 3 has the ball going forward.
No longer sitting back waiting for the long bomb.

Harry likely to break right from the left pocket, running into Charlie who breaks left from the right pocket....

 

[GoBlues!]

You'd think the Club would have talked to the Campo boys, at length, about Draper....

and possibly Bryce Gibbs who Draper played with last year.

 

[ferrisb]

and possibly Bryce Gibbs who Draper played with last year.

What would Gibbs know about being an elite 17yo prospect?

 

[ferrisb]

Pick 38. (Carlton) – Noah Mraz
Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Country –DEF, 198cm
The key defender was limited by injury earlier in the year, but showed promising signs with his aerial intercepting ability off half back and is able to read the play well and use his frame to push up the ground and go deeper down back.

Mraz upon being drafted to Carlton: I'm Yours.

Pretty sure...

 

[ferrisb]

I thought I saw FOS listed at 184cm post combine

When it comes to player heights, the AFL is FOS

 

[HyphensBack]

They're definitely going to take Tauru if they can. Maybe they think they can select FOS and then wait for Tauru to fall to Pick #7 and beyond and they may trade their 2025 pick into get him. So maybe if they're confident they can pull that off they go for FOS and trade back in. But it seems liek Tauru is their preferred selection.

I would love love love them to take FOS at Pick #2. Would be a dream scenario for us.

Why? if FOS is our man

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Why? if FOS is our man

Because FOS isn't our man in my opinion. May be the clubs but I think Draper is a class above him.

 

[GoBlues!]

The weirdest thing about St Kilda possibly bidding on Ben Camporeale that no one has asked is why is it only St Kilda that anyone suspects will bid on Ben? There are 16 other AFL clubs. SOS is incredibly predictable if he bids on Ben.

Most of the 17 other clubs won’t be in a position to bid on Ben because they don’t have the picks in the range required or will use up picks to match bids on their own f/s and academy players.

1. Adelaide won’t - second pick is #64.
2. Brisbane won’t - all picks to match bids.
3. Collingwood - first pick is 52.
4. Essendon won’t - picks needed for Kako
5. Fremantle - possibly with #30?
6. Geelong’s first pick is #45
7. GCS first pick is #39
8. GWS with #37 doesn’t achieve anything
9. Hawks possibly with #33
10. Melbourne wouldn’t use #9 to bid
11. NM second pick is #62 won’t bid.
12. Port possibly with #29.
13. Richmond’s unlikely with last pick 24
14. St Kilda most likely with #32
15. Sydney unlikely with #22
16. WCE unlikely with #26
17. WB with #35 doesn’t achieve much.

I think there are around four or so teams in that range that could bid on Ben - including the Saints (most likely), Port, Freo or Hawks.

 

[Stamos]

Because FOS isn't our man in my opinion. May be the clubs but I think Draper is a class above him.

So it wouldn’t so much be a dream scenario for us, as a dream scenario for you because you think you know better than our recruiters?

 

[The Return of the Paf]

This is a but of a misnomer as the draft at that point allowed each team to select one player a year earlier than they would otherwise be eligible. Fev was our underager.

Some other famous examples of clubs waiting towards the back of the draft are Goodes (43 in 1997) and Embley (57 in 1998). Inevitably it got to the point where most of the top 10 would be underage and that probably killed off the rule.

But still, I remember hearing that Fev lacked that one real standout quality that prevented him from being considered earlier. Obviously no mention of just how quick he was over the first five metres or the fact that he rarely missed a goal as a junior. My only query at the time was that he wasn't all that physically imposing as a KPF at that stage.

Anyway, there certainly will be much less of a chance of any rare gems being available at pick 38 if we are hell bent on taking a KPD.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Have to be happy with this

Pick 38. (Carlton) – Noah Mraz
Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Country –DEF, 198cm
The key defender was limited by injury earlier in the year, but showed promising signs with his aerial intercepting ability off half back and is able to read the play well and use his frame to push up the ground and go deeper down back.

Nope, don't rate him. Just a gut feeling.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

So it wouldn’t so much be a dream scenario for us, as a dream scenario for you because you think you know better than our recruiters?

Correct.

 

[bmaurizio]

James Barrat at pick 38 woukd be my choice, if still on the board. Not the typical tall 197/8 type a little shorter, but has good footy IQ aggression and can play both ends quite well, could develop with time into a reliable defender.

 

[windows1]

Controversial opinion:

If SOS bids on Ben C……

Let him have him. Let’s take a key defender with that pick.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Controversial opinion:

If SOS bids on Ben C……

Let him have him. Let’s take a key defender with that pick.

Very silly considering who we delisted which now means we need midfield depth coming through too. You don't ignore a discounted talent in a now light position group lol

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Yeah I don't think we're doing the dirty on Ben on a pick in the 30's

 

[Blue__Balls]

Most of the 17 other clubs won’t be in a position to bid on Ben because they don’t have the picks in the range required or will use up picks to match bids on their own f/s and academy players.

1. Adelaide won’t - second pick is #64.
2. Brisbane won’t - all picks to match bids.
3. Collingwood - first pick is 52.
4. Essendon won’t - picks needed for Kako
5. Fremantle - possibly with #30?
6. Geelong’s first pick is #45
7. GCS first pick is #39
8. GWS with #37 doesn’t achieve anything
9. Hawks possibly with #33
10. Melbourne wouldn’t use #9 to bid
11. NM second pick is #62 won’t bid.
12. Port possibly with #29.
13. Richmond’s unlikely with last pick 24
14. St Kilda most likely with #32
15. Sydney unlikely with #22
16. WCE unlikely with #26
17. WB with #35 doesn’t achieve much.

I think there are around four or so teams in that range that could bid on Ben - including the Saints (most likely), Port, Freo or Hawks.

In fairness, WB and GWS don't lose anything by bidding, and picks 35 and 37 are absolutely in the range. Port have 36 as well as 29.

I reckon that's 6 clubs with 7 picks between them that might bid on Ben before 38.

 

[BlueDomain]

Talk of a half back is interesting. Would absolutely love Zak Johnson given his ability to play multiple and creative ball use.

Still expect to take a KPD at that pick though

He is a bottom ager (24 December birthday), so probably has a lot of growth and improvement in him still compared to other in this year’s draft. Wish we could somehow add him to our list.

 

[Juice030103]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1255008

Langford Smith FOS Draper all mentioned as links to us

(And Lalor but said firming as pick 1)

 

[BlueNath]

They're definitely going to take Tauru if they can. Maybe they think they can select FOS and then wait for Tauru to fall to Pick #7 and beyond and they may trade their 2025 pick into get him. So maybe if they're confident they can pull that off they go for FOS and trade back in. But it seems liek Tauru is their preferred selection.

I would love love love them to take FOS at Pick #2. Would be a dream scenario for us.

Norths dream is to get Tauru and a 2nd first rounder. Trouble is, Dees and Tigs have threatened to take Tauru (regardless of actual interest). It means they have boxed North in, which helps them (and us!!).

I know you might have a preference for Draper, but surely you want what is best for the club? Saying FOS being taken off the board is NOT a dream scenario for the club. A dream scenario is having a choice on who we choose. It would be a perfect result for the club to back in its years of analysis and hard work and select their preferred option rather than having to take what is leftover. Which still may be draper BTW!

 

[MITSUHIRATO]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1255008

Langford Smith FOS Draper all mentioned as links to us

(And Lalor but said firming as pick 1)

I hope Hotton ends up at GWS. Then we can lure the Carlton supporter home.