Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Well yes the Academies are stupid but hey, the AFL does a lot of stupid things.

I have no time for anyone who criticises Father Son. If a non-football fan doesn't understand that, they don't understand the magic of football and its their loss.

They are pointing out (sooking) that the system isn’t fair. When last year the worst side in West Coast drafted at 30 instead of 19 for their second rounder and this year the best side will get arguably the best kid then I struggle to see how they are wrong.
Just because there is luck involved doesn’t make it anymore fair.

 

[LemmingMaster]

I think some people are confusing us not wanting Ben bid on before 38 with Ben not being worth pick 38.

Ben is an absolute bargain at pick 38 and a significantly better prospect then we would get using that pick. We will have a plan to trade out 38 so it's not used but hypothetically if it's one or the other Ben is worth it every day of the week.

If SOS bids at 32, he isn't being ridiculous (obviously isn't going to win him fans on this board). That's a very reasonable pick to place a bid.

It is interesting to see if clubs have an off the record view of allowing players that are not ranked in the top 30 to slide?

I'm trying to remember how many players are bid on after pick 30? or are they often allowed to just be selected by their preferred club.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

They are pointing out (sooking) that the system isn’t fair. When last year the worst side in West Coast drafted at 30 instead of 19 for their second rounder and this year the best side will get arguably the best kid then I struggle to see how they are wrong.
Just because there is luck involved doesn’t make it anymore fair.

Sure, criticise the academies all you want and criticise free agency giving out picks for nothing, but they complained about Father Sons too, which is stupid from a club that's been around for 100+ years and show their complaint is just pure selfishness.

 

[Stamos]

They are pointing out (sooking) that the system isn’t fair. When last year the worst side in West Coast drafted at 30 instead of 19 for their second rounder and this year the best side will get arguably the best kid then I struggle to see how they are wrong.
Just because there is luck involved doesn’t make it anymore fair.

The major unfairness there is not about FS or academy players, it's about FA compo picks & extra assistance picks which is the real compromise of the draft.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Let me add to that

"My message was less about the AFL and [more] 90 per cent for us to be as good as we can be as a football club and win despite the inequality. That's the bit that everyone ignored and went straight to the 10 per cent," he said.

"The 10 per cent is that the system is not fair, and I have a voice so I'll fight to make that fairer, but the 90 per cent is for us to win anyway.

"For us to recognise that because it's hard, anything less than our best gives us no chance. Our best gives us a chance and I genuinely believe that.

"That was my key message, not the fact that the system is broken."

if the system was fair your club would've folded due to bankruptcy and being so ****ing shit. Careful how much complaining you support considering the outlandish constant handouts for a club as old as st Kilda.

 

[Blue and Silver]

It is interesting to see if clubs have an off the record view of allowing players that are not ranked in the top 30 to slide?

I'm trying to remember how many players are bid on after pick 30? or are they often allowed to just be selected by their preferred club.

Mosquito I think got bid on a few years back.

Jiath and Lual last year was just short of 40 when they could have been matched.



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[Blueboy23!]

Diesel had one too.

Just passing on some info.
Carlton wants FOS, next in line is Draper.

Sorry if people don’t like this….


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[4flagsin5yrs]

Sure, but there's only so much you're going to want to trust a 17yo when it comes to getting the inside word on his mate that you're considering drafting to the same club...

Dare I say it, you'd put more value on negative feedback than positive. Being alerted to red flags would be more helpful than "Oh yeah, he's an awesome bloke, works really hard etc. etc."

In terms of credibility of insight:

Scouts > his Coaches > the kid himself > his teammates > his teammates who know they're coming to Carlton > everyone on BF

who would have thought.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Sure, criticise the academies all you want and criticise free agency giving out picks for nothing, but they complained about Father Sons too, which is stupid from a club that's been around for 100+ years and show their complaint is just pure selfishness.

some clubs don’t have father sons yet so tbh I don’t think there is any point addressing any of FS, academies or Compo individually. They should all be addressed at once.
When you have a system that we’ve got currently I can also not understand why people worry about priority picks being given.

 

[Blue__Balls]

They are pointing out (sooking) that the system isn’t fair. When last year the worst side in West Coast drafted at 30 instead of 19 for their second rounder and this year the best side will get arguably the best kid then I struggle to see how they are wrong.
Just because there is luck involved doesn’t make it anymore fair.

Because 17 other clubs are also negatively impacted by Brisbane getting Ashcroft?

They seem to think that they're the sole victim in all of this - everyone else gets a leg up and St Kilda has to wallow in the muck for eternity.

Immediately following "we need to take ownership" with "but...the system is rigged" perpetuates the shitty mindset that will keep them in the muck.

St Kilda landed a top 10 pick for Josh ****ing Battle - every other club with a pick between 8 and the second rounder they should have got has been negatively impacted. Lucky St Kilda, eh...should really make the most of that AFL handout.

 

[Opium]

Is this the draft thread??

I couldn't care less about ST Kilda.
Let's talk about the draft in this thread and players we are targeting.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

some clubs don’t have father sons yet so tbh I don’t think there is any point addressing any of FS, academies or Compo individually. They should all be addressed at once.
When you have a system that we’ve got currently I can also not understand why people worry about priority picks being given.

The only clubs that don't have FS access at this stage is GC and GWS and they get plenty of AFL assistance as it is.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Is this the draft thread??

I couldn't care less about ST Kilda.
Let's talk about the draft in this thread and players we are targeting.

Sure.

FOS, no, Draper, no, Smith....um, maybe Langford...how bout we trade back for 12 and 14...no takers? Cool.

Rinse repeat.

 

[HaydossJ]

Just passing on some info.
Carlton wants FOS, next in line is Draper.

Sorry if people don’t like this….


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Have heard differently..

Have been told it's Jagga..

Source: Jagga

 

[marcmurphy3]

Have heard differently..

Have been told it's Jagga..

Source: Jagga

Haha for real?

 

[RPCB]

All I know is how cool it is that Sam Walsh

18

Sam Walsh

Age

24

Ht

184cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.1

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

3.4

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.2

5star

K

15.4

5star

HB

10.8

5star

M

6.0

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

4.8

5star

went number 1, cousin FOS looks like a solid top 1-4 pick, Andrew Walker went number 2, and son Cody looks to be a solid 1-5 pick.

 

[Dravid's in]

Have heard differently..

Have been told it's Jagga..

Source: Jagga

C4[2]Yo`DooR had the same mail last week.

Interesting.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

The latest Gettable that just dropped, Cal saying Vossy has met with all 5 candidates - FOS, Lalor, Langford, Draper and Jagga in recent days. Langford a real possibility and Lalor is not a lock for pick 1, FOS is a real good chance to go pick 1

 

[BlueTongue]

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' November ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his fifth and final Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

"Remember, this is a ranking and not a mock draft. It does not take into account where the players will be drafted or where bids on father-son or Academy players will fall. That will come next week."

Geez I hope Twomey is on the money with #3 - Only issue with langford is he's "A Richmond Fan"

 

[GoBlues!]

In fairness, WB and GWS don't lose anything by bidding, and picks 35 and 37 are absolutely in the range. Port have 36 as well as 29.

I reckon that's 6 clubs with 7 picks between them that might bid on Ben before 38.

WB and GWS don’t lose anything but I’m not sure they really gain a lot either by bidding.

If GWS use #37 to bid on Ben, we would trade #38 for a F2 then use later picks (63, 68, 69) to match GWS bid less the 20% discount for f/s. After we take Ben, GWS would then use #37 - what has GWS actually gained? A shuffling down of picks after we use 63, 68, 69, so GWS last pick #73 becomes #70. If WB bid with #35 their #83 would come back to #80. Not much gain at this end of the draft range.

The issue for us is trading back into the draft with the F2 and where would we end up. Assuming it’s around the #40’s, I don’t see any benefit to GWS and WB who’s next picks are #56 and #48. They could bid but I don’t see a lot if any real benefit to them.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

The only clubs that don't have FS access at this stage is GC and GWS and they get plenty of AFL assistance as it is.

As in academies? which you implied should be scrutinised.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

As in academies? which you implied should be scrutinised.

Yes, but they're clearly not going to. But also, initial draft concessions, extra list spots and cash, marquee player allowances, they have other support beyond father son and academies.

 

[marcmurphy3]

WB and GWS don’t lose anything but I’m not sure they really gain a lot either by bidding.

If GWS use #37 to bid on Ben, we would trade #38 for a F2 then use later picks (63, 68, 69) to match GWS bid less the 20% discount for f/s. After we take Ben, GWS would then use #37 - what has GWS actually gained? A shuffling down of picks after we use 63, 68, 69, so GWS last pick #73 becomes #70. If WB bid with #35 their #83 would come back to #80. Not much gain at this end of the draft range.

The issue for us is trading back into the draft with the F2 and where would we end up. Assuming it’s around the #40’s, I don’t see any benefit to GWS and WB who’s next picks are #56 and #48. They could bid but I don’t see a lot if any real benefit to them.

Yeah, but using that logic pretty much nobody would bid. The benefit to the bidding club wherever the bid lands is usually pretty marginal, even for top end picks.

I think it comes more down to the philosophy of club and how firmly they believe clubs should pay fair value. There generally seems to be less care around this past pick 20 or so as whether a bid comes at 30 or 40 for Ben is really insignificant in the scheme of "fairness". Not the same as letting Levi Ashcroft drift down the order. Also, whether the potential bidding club wants to play nice because they have their own academy/fs picks coming through can also factor.

SOS clearly has a stronger philosophical view then most around clubs playing fair value, hence his past bidding. His club shares that view. Probably why he is seen as one of the most likely bidders (as opposed to because he wants to spite Carlton).

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Yes, but they're clearly not going to. But also, initial draft concessions, extra list spots and cash, marquee player allowances, they have other support beyond father son and academies.

Intial draft concessions? That’s almost 15 years ago for GC. Do GWS have extra list spots?

Because 17 other clubs are also negatively impacted by Brisbane getting Ashcroft?

They seem to think that they're the sole victim in all of this - everyone else gets a leg up and St Kilda has to wallow in the muck for eternity.

Immediately following "we need to take ownership" with "but...the system is rigged" perpetuates the shitty mindset that will keep them in the muck.

St Kilda landed a top 10 pick for Josh ****ing Battle - every other club with a pick between 8 and the second rounder they should have got has been negatively impacted. Lucky St Kilda, eh...should really make the most of that AFL handout.

This is the problem, the entire system is a joke.
Imo you keep academies and FS just get rid of the discount. You shouldn’t get anymore of an advantage then having the choice of taking the player or not. The new point system is a huge improvement.

FA is a lot tougher to fix. Personally I would get rid of restricted FA but raise the years service by one year, Then also get rid of Band 1 and 2 compo.

 

[katmanblue]

They’re a football club that has been poorly run for a long time, coping with failure is a badge of honour for them

They could say the same of us.

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