Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[Stamos]

Interesting the age have updated their mock draft. Supposedly spoken to 13 recruiters. They've got Jagga at 3 now, and said the majority of recruiters they spoke to now believe we will take him, with Adelaide to pounce at 4 if we don't.

They've actually got FOS falling to the Saints (though have admitted theirs a good chance he goes before then) and funnily enough have asked the question "does he have the same drive as others?" Must have got that from somewhere.

1. Lalor (other option FOS or Jagga)
2. Tauru (other option FOS or Draper)
3. Smith (other options Langford, Draper, FOS)
4. Draper (other options Jagga or Langford)
5. Langford (other options FOS, Smith, Tauru)
6. Smillie (or FOS)
7. FOS

We surveyed 13 AFL recruiters. This is how we predict the draft will unfold

The best and brightest young football prospects in the land will learn their fate in next week’s AFL draft. We’ve studied the form and the needs of the clubs to devise our phantom draft for the first round of selections.

www.theage.com.au

https://archive.md/Alu6A

 

[reubsblues]

Fos is still my first choice then Smith and Langford before Draper

 

[FlowersByIrene]

For those interested in Sid’s injury, he had what is called a ‘pars defect’ or spondylolysis; a stress fracture of the bones of the lower spine. These fractures typically occur due to overuse. They can be on one or both sides of the vertebrae. It is a common cause of low back pain in children and adolescents. The most common cause of low back pain is muscular, secondary to overuse or deconditioning.

He likely to outgrow the injury and will be no issue going forward.

Thank you for the clarification.

 

[Christou2Kouta]

Interesting the age have updated their mock draft. Supposedly spoken to 13 recruiters. They've got Jagga at 3 now, and said the majority of recruiters they spoke to now believe we will take him, with Adelaide to pounce at 4 if we don't.

They've actually got FOS falling to the Saints (though have admitted theirs a good chance he goes before then) and funnily enough have asked the question "does he have the same drive as others?" Must have got that from somewhere.

1. Lalor (other option FOS or Jagga)
2. Tauru (other option FOS or Draper)
3. Smith (other options Langford, Draper, FOS)
4. Draper (other options Jagga or Langford)
5. Langford (other options FOS, Smith, Tauru)
6. Smillie (or FOS)
7. FOS

As a recruiter it would be very difficult to pass over the All Australian u/18 captain who plays the position you’re looking to fill and has proven himself in three games at VFL level.

No one gets sacked for picking players who play 250+ games at the highest level and are likely members of the leadership group from their fifth year onwards.


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[Pinnell]

For those interested in Sid’s injury, he had what is called a ‘pars defect’ or spondylolysis; a stress fracture of the bones of the lower spine. These fractures typically occur due to overuse. They can be on one or both sides of the vertebrae. It is a common cause of low back pain in children and adolescents. The most common cause of low back pain is muscular, secondary to overuse or deconditioning.

He likely to outgrow the injury and will be no issue going forward.

Trigger wants Jagga

 

[Blue and Silver]

IMO

Best Player

Langford

Highest Upside

FOS

Best Fit for Carlton

Draper

Most likely to succeed

Jagga

Hard to see how we end up going wrong IMO

On Pixel 7a using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[JustaBattler]

This is a pretty flimsy argument. The point is, and has always been, that while your big inside mids win big accolades, because they are very impactful and very consistent, you can't have a midfield of only big inside mids if you want to win games of football and not just win accolades.

Our midfield leans very heavily towards inside midfielders, with Cripps being the best of them and also Hewett and even young players like Lord. Not to mention we're also drafting a big inside midfielder in this draft already in the form of Ben Camporeale. Cerra and Walsh who are inside-outside hybrids will become more inside as their careers progress as they get slower in their old age.

If we want to win football games and not brownlow's we need to bring in more explosive, fast paced midfields that compliment our existing inside strength.

It's a pretty simple concept.

This isnt the thread to talk about Carlton's midfield in general - nor was it the point of any post I have made.

 

[Bale Dup]

There's a pretty common theme amongst those players, outside of Philp and Cuningham who were cruelled by injury and that's mental issues - it's either footy IQ being low (Dow, Fisher, Menzel) or lack of confidence (SPS), the other outlier is O'Brien who was just physically poor. I'd argue those things should have been ascertainable at draft time. Fisher and Philp I feel can be excused because they were later picks anyway, but Dow, SPS, Menzel were mistakes.

It's one of the reasons people are big on Draper and Jagga Smith, because they show professionalism, IQ and hard work.

I'm big on both Jagga and Draper for the very reasons you mention and others.
Also, just on those names listed, there is a very common theme with all of them.
Not one of them was brought into the club by Austin. His only shot, so far, at a top 10ish pick is Ollie and I think that's not a bad effort with what Austin had to choose from.
New and fresh minds looking at these kids, not SOS.
Very confident we get this draft right

On SM-G980F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[FlowersByIrene]

This isnt the thread to talk about Carlton's midfield in general - nor was it the point of any post I have made.

Okay JAB, let's leave it there. This being the draft thread, and the current discussion about needs (speed) versus best player available made me interpret the below quote as being about our draft selection at Pick #3, silly me I guess!

When I look at that lust my first thought was ...."most of those blokes mentioned above have one thing in common - apart from footy ability and no it isnt the so called 'speed' "- only two of those blokes are genuinely fast.

 

[Coops93]

Fos is still my first choice then Smith and Langford before Draper

Agreed. FOS first and I think Smith & Langford are tied 2nd for me - I think I like Langford better as a player but Smith as a fit for us is better, so I'd be fine either way - and Draper is 4th afaic.

 

[Sweet Seventeen]

For some strange reason I was more confident when we had the two higher picks, number '3' really makes me nervous, even in this so called super draft......

No need to worry Dirty, reckon Austin has done a magnificent job to get us up to three.

Now he is just eagerly waiting to see who drops to us. We should end up with one of Jagga or FOS imo.

Jagga might be the safer pick and I do really like him. FOS has the so called x-factor and star quality.

With Owies now gone, I think Finn could make an immediate impact. Mainly up forward, with some midfield minutes.

Motlop and Durdin have shown glimpses, but have been unlucky with injuries so far. FOS could easily play round one as a

small forward and if he has a good run could end up kicking 30 goals. Would provide a nice point of difference to Harry,

Charlie, Zac, Fog and Kemp/JSOS.

Of course Jagger would be great in our midfield, maybe allowing Walsh to play on a wing. Ollie looks good at half back.

Five days to go, bring it on.

 

[ferrisb]

My profile picture for years has been players pulling silly faces. Kemp with his nose double plugged was too hard to resist.

Ha. All this time I thought it was McGovern...

In terms of clear cut examples? Joel Selwood, and at the point at which that happened (6 rounds in) it was his 4th knee operation in 2 years.

Aye. That's a good example Jim. But it's also almost 20 years ago now...





Also... I just multi-responded to Jimmae. I think I just clocked bigfooty....

 

[marcmurphy3]

As a recruiter it would be very difficult to pass over the All Australian u/18 captain who plays the position you’re looking to fill and has proven himself in three games at VFL level.

No one gets sacked for picking players who play 250+ games at the highest level and are likely members of the leadership group from their fifth year onwards.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Yeah. I'm leaning Jagga marginally ahead of Draper for that reason. FOS upside excites me but looking back through history the Jagga type (natural footballer, dominant top age season, highly professional) ends up being the better player more often than not.

 

[BluStreak]

I've raised it everytime someone used this baseless assertion.

You know that it is baseless. Ok then.

 

[GoBlues!]

For some strange reason I was more confident when we had the two higher picks, number '3' really makes me nervous, even in this so called super draft......

It’s to do with the FOFU factor. The Fear of Fluffing Up is greater with a top 4 pick is much higher than #12 and #14.

 

[Y Goat]

If we want to win football games and not brownlow's we need to bring in more explosive, fast paced midfields that compliment our existing inside strength.

I’m in furious agreement with this point. And it’s not a criticism of any of our great mids either, just the overall mix.

FWIW: i’m for Draper, with Jagga very close/almost equal. I like the fact that Draper (and smith) have proven they can play, and play well, in a higher level comp such as SANFL : VFL. So for theee two, it’s not potential, it’s actual demonstrated performance. Which for a top 3 pick, matters. Most of the others seem to have been playing juniors most of the time

 

[Crippa#9]

Just can't see us drafting Jagga IF one of FOS or Draper are still on the board.

Jagga is a jet but if we've really listened to Austin these last couple of months he has emphasised a want for speed, power & burst - essentially a P.O.D to our current midfield group of CRIPPS, WALSH, CERRA, LORD. Jagga will be an oustanding accumulator and an elite midfielder but he's not a whole lot different to some of those we have already.

I still think FOS because, whilst we dont need to him to be a high accumulator has does has those P.O.D traits + he's also a crafty forward who, for his first year, could play the Will Hayward

9

Will Hayward

Age

26

Ht

186cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.6

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.8

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

9.0

2star

K

4.3

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

0.7

4star

D

9.4

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.4

5star

role (remember we were very keen on him & offered big $$). My gut is Austin & Agresta will love the evasiveness of FOS in the midfield but also how dangerous he can be a marking half forward & goalkicker.

Then again, they may see Jagga as the second coming to Nick Daicos and feel he is too good to pass on...

 

[VainGlorious]

In the last four weeks I’ve gone from FOS to Draper to Jagga to Lalor to Draper to Lalor to FOS to Jagga to Draper then back to FOS for a brief stint with Draper eventually winning out until Smith reared up and took the mantle and now I can comfortably say I’m definitely probably most likely on the Lalor bandwagon if he’s there at our pick.
Then someone posted some Harvey Langford highlights and I thought to myself “dayum, maybe I want me some Langford?”.

I then watched extensive YouTube footage of both FoS and Jagga and the slow descent into madness became a free fall of sorts.

Now I’m certain that Drapers our man. No doubting this. He’s EXACTLY what our midfield needs and he’ll thrive in our environment.




Jagga Smith for mine.

Maybe.

 

[bradfisher14]

Dow - you, i disagree with your assertion

Every coach and list manager he's had in the AFL seems to agree with me on this, but let's go through your response anyway.

Didn’t have the dog?
Bloke is hard, numerous times he got smashed and kept going.

Sounds like a bare minimum requirement to be an AFL player.

How many other players would have put in as much continued effort absolutely killing it in the 2s over a big stretch for no reward. That in itself shows the character of the bloke.

What about continued effort to improve the weaknesses in his game? I didn't see any results of that in his time with us.

He worked his ass off & ultimately never had the chance with a fit Cripps, Walsh, Cerra to prove he had stepped up.

There was always a spot for him to take in our team, he just failed to do so because he isn't good enough and never showed signs that he would be in the future. If he had shown anything at all, we wouldn't have traded for Hewett/Cerra and if he had reached his potential, we certainly wouldn't have traded the farm to get pick 3 in this draft.

Using him as comparison with Draper is unsophisticated & a poor argument.
The players all have their own journeys & much more goes into what makes/happens with their career.

Lazy argument to drag Dow into the conversation, yes it’s pick 3 again & we want a player of greater impact than he gave us - but that’s it, there’s no further relationship than just the number of the pick.

I never made any comparisons between Draper and Dow. I simply made an observation about why Dow didn't make it at Carlton.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Vain RUOK??

 

[VainGlorious]

Vain RUOK??

Of course.

I’ll prove it.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Harvey Langford on SEN atm with Dwayne, ripper kid speaks so well! Would love him in Navy Blue!!!

 

[JuddgementDay]

In the last four weeks I’ve gone from FOS to Draper to Jagga to Lalor to Draper to Lalor to FOS to Jagga to Draper then back to FOS for a brief stint with Draper eventually winning out until Smith reared up and took the mantle and now I can comfortably say I’m definitely probably most likely on the Lalor bandwagon if he’s there at our pick.
Then someone posted some Harvey Langford highlights and I thought to myself “dayum, maybe I want me some Langford?”.

I then watched extensive YouTube footage of both FoS and Jagga and the slow descent into madness became a free fall of sorts.

Now I’m certain that Drapers our man. No doubting this. He’s EXACTLY what our midfield needs and he’ll thrive in our environment.




Jagga Smith for mine.

Maybe.

It seems like a few of us are in this camp

I used to be indecisive, now I'm not too sure

I'm on Draper atm, but I'll back whoever we pick at #3

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Looks like Port could be shifting 13 and 29 to GWS for 16 and 21.

hmmmmmm.....if that eventuates, then do GWS trade 13 and 15 to the Saints for 8 and 32 to move up the order? Saints reportedly keen to split pick 8.

It could be a good result for us if the Saints no longer have pick 32 for SOS to potentially place a bid.

 

[I bleed Blue]

The last time we went with an obsessive 'fast mid' focusing on speed out of the contest above other things... well, it didn't work out so well. In saying that, Draper is not Dow.

Dow has no appetite for the defensive stuff.

Draper is a tackling beast.