Analysis 2024 National Draft

Who should Carlton take at Pick 3 if available?


  • Total voters
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Of course I'd support him if he got picked by us but I believe there are other options for us at pick 3 and I worry he is a significant risk. Not denying his talent but I really want to nail this pick. Let's be honest Dow, SPS, O Brien, Stocker, Kemp (jury still out), Philip and Fisher haven't exactly demonstrated the surety of high - mid end draft picks. We really need to select a guaranteed star if we possibly can.
I don’t think anyone disagrees with you here.
 
Am I the only one who doesn't really GAF about draftees playing round 1?

I won't say no to some early form, but drafting is for long-term output (especially at the pointy end).

Do some trades if you're after a short-term fix.
Yeah but players who don't play early rarely succeed. Reserves footy is too different of a level and they develop poor habits. The myth of a player "developing in the twos" is pretty much that (at least for midfielders).
 
Not long now folks. Experience though tells me it’s time to hot foot it before the sharks come out and this place becomes a feeding frenzy for the unwashed desktop snipers. (Happens every year for the past 10+ years - don’t tell me I’m wrong)

Last word from me. (Top 10 without bids)

Rich - Lalor
Rich* - O’Sullivan
Car - Smith
ADE- Draper
MEL - Reid
Nth* - Tauru
StK- Langford
StK - Smillie
MEL - Armstrong
Rich - Trainor

2nd Rd - KPD
Ashcroft and/or Lombard missing
 
Yeah but players who don't play early rarely succeed. Reserves footy is too different of a level and they develop poor habits. The myth of a player "developing in the twos" is pretty much that (at least for midfielders).

Not really true at all tbh. Especially talls. Think you're confusing good players going to shit teams and shit teams being forced to play them with this.


One of the best wingers of the 2010s developed VFL til he was 22 or smthing.



The list of talls who started terribly is extensive. Gawn even said himself if he wasn't 200cm he'd have been cut after 2 years.


The Geelong trio of bartel, Enright and cam Guthrie all started their careers very slowly with sporadic game time in the first 3 seasons and strong messaging to go back and develop elements in the twos. I think Stevie J was in and out for his first 3 seasons not.playing too much either As he had to develop in the twos.

Swan was drafted in 2001 and didn't play ones til 2003.

Cal Wilkie developed in the vfl
Jobe Watson was.depth only first 3 seasons. Matt Priddis was overlooked in multiple years rookie drafts... Developed pretty well in the levels below...

Luke bruest started his third season in the AFL playing in the hawks THIRDS team. Not even selected for Box Hill.........
 
Well, if noobermensch has Draper at #1 on his board, that’s good enough for me.



Bidding Schitts Creek GIF by CBC
 

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Just a random question, but who will bid on Ashcroft to keep the premiers Brisbane a little honest...

Adelaide at 4 if they don't move that selection.
 
Last day for thoughts/predictions/guesses before Twomey hugely influences things with his largely accurate info tomorrow:

My crack at a 1st rd prediction on actual draft night:

1. Rich: Sam Lalor
2. Rich: Jagga Smith (For 6&18)
3. Carl: Finn O'Sullivan
4. Adel: Sid Draper
5. Mel: Harvey Langford
6. North: Alix Tauru
7. StK: Josh Smillie
8. StK: Tobie Travaglia
9. Mel: Murphy Reid
10. Rich: Bo Allan
11. Rich: Jack Whitlock
12. WC: Xavier Lindsay
13. GWS: Jobe Shanahan (16&21 to Port for 13&29)
14. Freo: Joe Berry
15. GWS: Harry Oliver
16. Ess: Harry Armstrong (Port get choice of EFC or Mel F1 and extra. They''ll pay handsomely)
17. WB: Taj Hotton
18. NM: Luke Trainor
19. Syd: Matt Whitlock
20: Rich: Cooper Hynes
21. Port: Alex Dodson
22. Syd: Jesse Dattoli
23. Rich: Jonty Faull

No I Kako?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Not really true at all tbh. Especially talls. Think you're confusing good players going to shit teams and shit teams being forced to play them with this.


One of the best wingers of the 2010s developed VFL til he was 22 or smthing.



The list of talls who started terribly is extensive. Gawn even said himself if he wasn't 200cm he'd have been cut after 2 years.


The Geelong trio of bartel, Enright and cam Guthrie all started their careers very slowly with sporadic game time in the first 3 seasons and strong messaging to go back and develop elements in the twos. I think Stevie J was in and out for his first 3 seasons not.playing too much either As he had to develop in the twos.

Swan was drafted in 2001 and didn't play ones til 2003.

Cal Wilkie developed in the vfl
Jobe Watson was.depth only first 3 seasons. Matt Priddis was overlooked in multiple years rookie drafts... Developed pretty well in the levels below...

Luke bruest started his third season in the AFL playing in the hawks THIRDS team. Not even selected for Box Hill.........
I did specify that the above primarily related to midfielders. As for the midfield examples they are fre and far between as your examples suggest
 
My preference order excluding Lalor and Ashcroft:
1. Draper.
2. Smith.
3. Langford.
4. FOS.

I wouldn't even consider FOS at pick 3. I think he is the most likely to be the bust of the draft. He seems like a very laid back lad compared to the others who are ultimate professionals. He hasn't shown he can accumulate against under 18s and to be honest his highlights are very average.

I feel like a lot of people are just agreeing we should take him because everyone says he is good. Objectively when you watch him play he is a rung below the other contenders who have runs on the board. And I don't want excuses about his broken finger. I just think he is a talented kid without the intensity and drive compared to the others.

Draper had performed against men. He is the real deal.

It's fair to have your own opinion about each player and where you rate them. To dismiss contrary opinions as basically ignorantly riding a bandwagon .... you probably should read their opinions or ask them.

For me, I like FOS because I like his movement first and foremost. He quickly gains separation from stoppages and he can weave in and out of trouble very quickly. He sort of tests for gaps, then if cornered he recoils and finds a better option. I like the mindset. He gets separation and he attacks. He can stream inside 50 and score. I do think his running gait looks laconic. Tobie Travaglia looks that way to me too, but they just move differently. His marking is a major strength. He is vice captain for his team, behind Jagga Smith, so it's not as though he doesn't have that aspect.

One stupid knock I have on him is how he sounds like a country bumpkin and I have reactively surmised a lack of communication skills or intelligence as a result. That one is totally on me. I think I have some deep seated issues with some country relatives.

That's not to say that the other candidates don't have the same or further attributes. I rate things about all of the candidates to be honest.

It has been noted that the upper echelon of draftees usually add on about 5 disposals per game on average from their bottom to their top aged years.

FOS and Draper were limited by injury in their top aged years and both suffered a downturn in their average, while someone like Smith increased his average as they were expected to. Can we assume that injuries played a huge part in the lack of accumulation? FOS averaged 23 disposals per game in his bottom aged year. There was nothing apparent in his top aged year to identify why he dropped off. It's not like he didn't go to contests. I will note that he plays defence, midfield and forward so is the most versatile of that top group. That will mess with your averages.
 
ChatGPT has the answer:

As the 2024 AFL Draft approaches, Carlton holds the third overall pick and is evaluating top prospects to enhance their midfield. Among the leading candidates are Finn O’Sullivan, Jagga Smith, and Sid Draper.

Finn O’Sullivan: A dynamic midfielder from the Oakleigh Chargers, O’Sullivan is known for his athleticism and versatility. Notably, he is the cousin of Carlton star Sam Walsh, adding a familial connection to his potential selection.

Jagga Smith: Also from the Oakleigh Chargers, Smith is recognized for his ball-winning abilities and leadership qualities. His consistent performance and ability to impact games make him a strong contender.

Sid Draper: Hailing from South Australia, Draper offers line-breaking pace and has experience at the senior level, which could be advantageous for Carlton’s midfield.

While all three players present compelling cases, current analyses suggest that Finn O’Sullivan is the most likely choice for Carlton’s third pick. His combination of athleticism, versatility, and the existing connection to Sam Walsh aligns well with Carlton’s strategic goals.
 
ChatGPT has the answer:

As the 2024 AFL Draft approaches, Carlton holds the third overall pick and is evaluating top prospects to enhance their midfield. Among the leading candidates are Finn O’Sullivan, Jagga Smith, and Sid Draper.

Finn O’Sullivan: A dynamic midfielder from the Oakleigh Chargers, O’Sullivan is known for his athleticism and versatility. Notably, he is the cousin of Carlton star Sam Walsh, adding a familial connection to his potential selection.

Jagga Smith: Also from the Oakleigh Chargers, Smith is recognized for his ball-winning abilities and leadership qualities. His consistent performance and ability to impact games make him a strong contender.

Sid Draper: Hailing from South Australia, Draper offers line-breaking pace and has experience at the senior level, which could be advantageous for Carlton’s midfield.

While all three players present compelling cases, current analyses suggest that Finn O’Sullivan is the most likely choice for Carlton’s third pick. His combination of athleticism, versatility, and the existing connection to Sam Walsh aligns well with Carlton’s strategic goals.
That's actually a very impressive answer...
 
I did specify that the above primarily related to midfielders. As for the midfield examples they are fre and far between as your examples suggest
Patty Cripps is an example of a player not up to AFL standard in his first year despite good form in the 2s. Only Thing worse than young players rotting away in the 2 despite good form is them losing confidence in the ones not getting near it.
 

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Analysis 2024 National Draft

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