Analysis 2024 National Draft

Who will be our first selection on night 2 of the Draft?

  • Total voters
    27
  • Poll closed .

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Arr0w said:
View attachment 2173759
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Thanks Arrow. Based on that I stand by the late 1sts early 2nds comments but obviously depends where the bid comes. 1 vs 10 are very different scenarios. And where our first pick lands will also have a big impact. In either case will need to take 4-5 list spots into the draft and need a plan for them after all our other picks slide back.

Wont be a problem getting him though. We might just have to wipe ourselves out of a few drafts if our first pick is late and he is ranked 1-3.

Fine by me. Only fair in that scenario
 

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GT619 said:
just came from saints draft board who are trying to name their 22 man defence
Click to expand...

Saints supporters: “Defense wins titles.”

Rest of us: “You still need to score ffs.”
 
RPCB said:
Saints supporters: “Defense wins titles.”

Rest of us: “You still need to score ffs.”
Click to expand...
Yup agree, both structures are vital to wining and a good balance in both zones is ideal.
Separately I do like Travaglia & Tauru both are exciting young talents, Saint did ok with these selections.
Bombers snare James Barrat another favorite, all three will be quality defenders.
 
Arr0w said:
View attachment 2173759
Click to expand...


Also add the points to match change from 20% to 10%

I.e 3000 in 2024 becomes 2400 on today's system

In 2025 onwards to march its 3000 becomes 2700


You CAN go into defiect as if you win the flag the following year i.e they allocate you a debt of pick 18 36,54,72 which currently is 1723

as of next year same model but the value of all them picks is 1167


So worth noting 2026 youll have

1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th 2026
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th 2027
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th 2028

Now the standard medium on average on a break away pick 1 as a NGA or FS is pick 2.8

so lets say its pick 2 coz the AFL make it actually worth bidding


2 is 2481 reduced too 2233

say we WIN the flag we have 18 36 etc

Carlton based on my example (I know its a Carlton forum not an oppo one so will get slated here as opposed to anywhere else)

Clubs most likely now look to buy 2nds at a higher cost (obviously picks cost less and drop off is huge)

So I would predict instead of doing whats common now getting 4 lots of 30 they aim to trade into 2nd round with futures (common drop off winning 2 in a row is tough) and youll see trades using futures in 2025 to predict 2026 bid. i,e trade out of first 2025 to get a future 2nd from say a bottom 4 side, and then looking to trade future assets to keep the bid match in the 2nd round.

So on that example you keep your pick 18 836

And get in trade using a future pick early to get some seconds late to match, really as i explained to the legend Arrow you hold a first thats what the rule is encouraging vs doing a lions and trading a pick for multiple 2nds, Lions gave you an example this year, Annable will be a top 10 talent so they have added futures early which are the building bloke of lists, 2 years of picks makes it easier!

Hopefully this explains it well, Apologises as its probably going to be past off as 2nd 3rd of 4th hand info, and im selling it for a Buck (Wish YT and content paid bills, shame i busted my arse as a mid 20s to be able to semi retire in my 30s)

Any Questions around this let me know, Aim to make a INDEPTH video on this to compliment the explaination early, Sounds scary BUT...... Its basically Same rules as now, Just cant take the p155 like Lions, Swans etc have in past and blow your first to another top 8 club

Peace Love & Light Pommy
 
So if we take say a midrange scenario. Cody is bid on at 4 and we finish 6th.

The points total at 4 including 10% discount would be 1766. We would get pick 13 for finishing 6th but most years after FA compo that slides back. Lets say 2 spots so we get pick 15. Therell be free agency compo in the 2nd round too so our pick 33 will slide back a few spots, so maybe pick 35.

So 1766 - 973 (p15) - 338 (p35) = 455

So we need 455 more points to meet the bid. Can do that by grabbing pick 30 or going into deficit.

Our F2 wont be enough for 30 given its the tassie draft. We'll need to part with F1 or get that currency by trading a decent player.

Most preferable is going into deficit as itll just slide our F1 back about 10 spots. Get better value for it that way.

So cost would probably be 2026 1st, 2026 2nd, slide back about 10 spots in 2027 first round.

Gets much harder if we look at a top range scenario.

Say he gets bid on at Pick 1 and we win the flag. The points cost would be 2700 points and we probably end up with pick 20 (757) and 45 (150).

Cost is 2700 - 757 (p20) - 150 (p45) = 1793

We can go into deficit 800 odd points but would leave almost 1000 points still. Would need to grab a couple of 2nd rounders somehow. Maybe 1 from f1 and another by trading a player.

I think we can find a way in either scenario but the 2nd one will be alot harder obviously.

Its ashame our future picks that year will be the tassie draft. Wont be able to get as much for them
 
marcmurphy3 said:
So if we take say a midrange scenario. Cody is bid on at 4 and we finish 6th.

The points total at 4 including 10% discount would be 1766. We would get pick 13 for finishing 6th but most years after FA compo that slides back. Lets say 2 spots so we get pick 15. Therell be free agency compo in the 2nd round too so our pick 33 will slide back a few spots, so maybe pick 35.

So 1766 - 973 (p15) - 338 (p35) = 455

So we need 455 more points to meet the bid. Can do that by grabbing pick 30 or going into deficit.

Our F2 wont be enough for 30 given its the tassie draft. We'll need to part with F1 or get that currency by trading a decent player.

Most preferable is going into deficit as itll just slide our F1 back about 10 spots. Get better value for it that way.

So cost would probably be 2026 1st, 2026 2nd, slide back about 10 spots in 2027 first round.

Gets much harder if we look at a top range scenario.

Say he gets bid on at Pick 1 and we win the flag. The points cost would be 2700 points and we probably end up with pick 20 (757) and 45 (150).

Cost is 2700 - 757 (p20) - 150 (p45) = 1793

We can go into deficit 800 odd points but would leave almost 1000 points still. Would need to grab a couple of 2nd rounders somehow. Maybe 1 from f1 and another by trading a player.

I think we can find a way in either scenario but the 2nd one will be alot harder obviously.

Its ashame our future picks that year will be the tassie draft. Wont be able to get as much for them
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Yeah deficit can be your friend! I made this that is part of my anaylsis that starts after xmas for Draftees, but this is the ladder order based on the consensus of bookies for 2025, So if you want to play with examples imagine Cody is 2025, And then Add 2026 and 2027 in your mind as Pick 18,36,54,72 and then you can play with scenarios etc good fun to do!
 

Attachments

  • 2025 AFL DRAFT ORDER WITH POINTS.xlsx
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marcmurphy3 said:
So if we take say a midrange scenario. Cody is bid on at 4 and we finish 6th.

The points total at 4 including 10% discount would be 1766. We would get pick 13 for finishing 6th but most years after FA compo that slides back. Lets say 2 spots so we get pick 15. Therell be free agency compo in the 2nd round too so our pick 33 will slide back a few spots, so maybe pick 35.

So 1766 - 973 (p15) - 338 (p35) = 455

So we need 455 more points to meet the bid. Can do that by grabbing pick 30 or going into deficit.

Our F2 wont be enough for 30 given its the tassie draft. We'll need to part with F1 or get that currency by trading a decent player.

Most preferable is going into deficit as itll just slide our F1 back about 10 spots. Get better value for it that way.

So cost would probably be 2026 1st, 2026 2nd, slide back about 10 spots in 2027 first round.

Gets much harder if we look at a top range scenario.

Say he gets bid on at Pick 1 and we win the flag. The points cost would be 2700 points and we probably end up with pick 20 (757) and 45 (150).

Cost is 2700 - 757 (p20) - 150 (p45) = 1793

We can go into deficit 800 odd points but would leave almost 1000 points still. Would need to grab a couple of 2nd rounders somehow. Maybe 1 from f1 and another by trading a player.

I think we can find a way in either scenario but the 2nd one will be alot harder obviously.

Its ashame our future picks that year will be the tassie draft. Wont be able to get as much for them
Click to expand...
Clubs will still trade up for a 1st, just won’t be able to get quite such a big points bonus as has been happening under the previous system.
 
Pommylovescarlton said:
Also add the points to match change from 20% to 10%

I.e 3000 in 2024 becomes 2400 on today's system

In 2025 onwards to march its 3000 becomes 2700


You CAN go into defiect as if you win the flag the following year i.e they allocate you a debt of pick 18 36,54,72 which currently is 1723

as of next year same model but the value of all them picks is 1167


So worth noting 2026 youll have

1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th 2026
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th 2027
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th 2028

Now the standard medium on average on a break away pick 1 as a NGA or FS is pick 2.8

so lets say its pick 2 coz the AFL make it actually worth bidding


2 is 2481 reduced too 2233

say we WIN the flag we have 18 36 etc

Carlton based on my example (I know its a Carlton forum not an oppo one so will get slated here as opposed to anywhere else)

Clubs most likely now look to buy 2nds at a higher cost (obviously picks cost less and drop off is huge)

So I would predict instead of doing whats common now getting 4 lots of 30 they aim to trade into 2nd round with futures (common drop off winning 2 in a row is tough) and youll see trades using futures in 2025 to predict 2026 bid. i,e trade out of first 2025 to get a future 2nd from say a bottom 4 side, and then looking to trade future assets to keep the bid match in the 2nd round.

So on that example you keep your pick 18 836

And get in trade using a future pick early to get some seconds late to match, really as i explained to the legend Arrow you hold a first thats what the rule is encouraging vs doing a lions and trading a pick for multiple 2nds, Lions gave you an example this year, Annable will be a top 10 talent so they have added futures early which are the building bloke of lists, 2 years of picks makes it easier!

Hopefully this explains it well, Apologises as its probably going to be past off as 2nd 3rd of 4th hand info, and im selling it for a Buck (Wish YT and content paid bills, shame i busted my arse as a mid 20s to be able to semi retire in my 30s)

Any Questions around this let me know, Aim to make a INDEPTH video on this to compliment the explaination early, Sounds scary BUT...... Its basically Same rules as now, Just cant take the p155 like Lions, Swans etc have in past and blow your first to another top 8 club

Peace Love & Light Pommy
Click to expand...
Good point about trading back vs trading forward. Get much better value for our picks that way.
 
Stamos said:
Clubs will still trade up for a 1st, just won’t be able to get quite such a big points bonus as has been happening under the previous system.
Click to expand...
Thats true too. Looking at the points table I dont think therell be much value in splitting late 1sts for a couple of 2nds to get points. Difference will be marginal.

But if you have a top 5-10 pick (hopefully wont be us) pick splitting is still a good way to up your points.
 
Pommylovescarlton said:
Yeah loads of nuances at play, so gonna be a fun one to cover I assume as I've spent 5 years slating clubs doing it and now I'm going to have to cross the floor and go it's the best system ever, viva la system
Click to expand...
In the long run I think it'll work out for us even though the changes are bad timing with Cody.

We'll have to cough up this once but will be a much fairer draft going forward. Will give us access to better talent with academy clubs actually having to use their good picks to pay for talent.

Probably worth the equivalent of 2-3 spots bump in the draft order every year.
 

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interesting that he wanted Ofarrell with so many picks and players on the table, wonder if that was just a need for our list or he Austin genuinely thought he was the next best available player
 
Arr0w said:
The example I used has nothing to do with finishing positions, purely difference in points
Click to expand...

Pick 45 is worth 150 points.
You need 1766 points to match a bid at 4.
If we finish say 4th, we’d have 1397 points (before they slide out with compo picks).

Going to need a lot more than pick 45 extra.
 
Jimmae said:
That's still a midfield that's slow and lacking strength over the ball, it's just not got any outliers that can open the game up at critical moments (Acres, Cripps, to a lesser extent Saad, Williams).

You're missing Wilson there, but even still there's a lot of faith being placed in Lord. He's got skills, no doubt, but he's not blessed with speed and a great deal of strength and he's making himself heavier. He might not make the step up and will just be a nuggety type with a clean kick should the opposition ever afford him space.

Elijah Hollands is sadly a midfield pinch-hitter, while Ollie needs to tilt his speed-endurance mix towards speed to make a difference for us (or maybe he becomes the Hewett replacement).

Long term, that midfield is on the decline while we watch most AFL sides bolt on talented player after talented player.
Click to expand...
Totally disagree Jim. Walker (If taken on how he projects) + Cerra, Walsh and Lord is sturdy and strong enough over the ball. We'll lack the genuine Cripps/Bont/Fyfe/Trac type but they're all more than capable in the contest.

Elijah could develop into a full time on baller, perhaps not... We don't know yet given he's only played 30 odd games thus far and has plenty of physical development left in him. In his juniors he was the prototypical 'POD' midfielder.

Walker projects as a game breaking mid fwd physically.

Wilson, Ollie and Cowan all show traits that suggest they could end up capable of pinching on ball or even transitioning to full time mids to provide a bit of pace and kicking skill to the mix.

Ben Campo imo takes Hewetts place after a few years of development as a defensive side mid.

I think our midfield in 2027/28 onwards looks fantastic if I'm being honest, and I'm one who's normally happy to rip into players I think aren't up to it - Aka our small forwards.
 
ItsAllAboutMe said:
interesting that he wanted Ofarrell with so many picks and players on the table, wonder if that was just a need for our list or he Austin genuinely thought he was the next best available player
Click to expand...
Likely a bit of both. Fits a need, projects as a quality player and is a dedicated kid from all reports.
 
Stamos said:
Pick 45 is worth 150 points.
You need 1766 points to match a bid at 4.
If we finish say 4th, we’d have 1397 points (before they slide out with compo picks).

Going to need a lot more than pick 45 extra.
Click to expand...

I explained it poorly

Walker being bid on at pick 4, with us having pick 18

In 2024
2034 less 20% discount = 1627.2. To match we would need pick 18, 36, 60

In 2026
1962 less 10% discount = 1765.8 To match we would need pick 18, 36, + pick 24 ish
 
gbatman said:
It is, it is for most sides when building a list, it's generally the last piece because historically they come with later picks, are easier to get and take a shorter time to develop.

Our small forwards are makeshift. They are failed forwards and defenders and don't have the natural skillset or forward instincts to play that end at a high level.

Fogarty, Cottrell, Fantasia are very limited and are missing key pieces that would make them genuine forwards.

Owies and Martin are gone.

Motlop has not performed. Durdin has not performed at all since 2022.

Williams is a very good natural all round footballer but does he have it as a forward?

Elijah Hollands is more of a midfielder. He looks like a part time forward not a full time forward.

Moir has it in spades.

Small forwards need to have the smarts. There is a reason they get to the right spots at the right times. They need to be good overhead. They need pace, closing speed and the need to chase, tackle and pressure. They also need good skills to hit targets and kick goals.

I'm sceptical of most of the players mentioned. I think we will be going very very hard at shifting many of those mentioned names off our list and bringing in elite smaller forward talent.

I think we will be hoping Smith can play there a bit. I think we will be hoping like hell that Williams, Motlop and Durdin go up a level. Hollands will play half forward a bit. Kemp is going forward which I like. Moir will play next year. He fills both the small and medium forward position and is a genuine forward.

You can only teach players to play forward to a certain level. There is a limit on how far you can go in making a player into a forward. That limit has been reached with most of the names mentioned. The instincts and IQ can't be taught.

We will be going hard at forwards next year and hopefully Cody Walker fits part of the bill.
Click to expand...

I'd argue key defenders is out biggest blind spot. At least we have Williams, Motlop, Durdin on the list. We don't have a valid option at CHB. Stuffing around with S Durdin and Marchbank has just wasted years we could have been putting into a youngster.

Young has proven only that he can't be trusted and HOF is years away. Are they thinking Lemmey is an option? Is Jack Silvagni going back this year? Probably overdue but he's not huge.

Trading for SDK is a long shot given our salary cap situation. So I'm not sure what the plan is.
 
bmaurizio said:
Yup agree, both structures are vital to wining and a good balance in both zones is ideal.
Separately I do like Travaglia & Tauru both are exciting young talents, Saint did ok with these selections.
Bombers snare James Barrat another favorite, all three will be quality defenders.
Click to expand...

Tauru was my favourite (after Jagga). Will end up a key forward I think.
 
Pommylovescarlton said:
Also add the points to match change from 20% to 10%

I.e 3000 in 2024 becomes 2400 on today's system

In 2025 onwards to march its 3000 becomes 2700


You CAN go into defiect as if you win the flag the following year i.e they allocate you a debt of pick 18 36,54,72 which currently is 1723

as of next year same model but the value of all them picks is 1167


So worth noting 2026 youll have

1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th 2026
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th 2027
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th 2028

Now the standard medium on average on a break away pick 1 as a NGA or FS is pick 2.8

so lets say its pick 2 coz the AFL make it actually worth bidding


2 is 2481 reduced too 2233

say we WIN the flag we have 18 36 etc

Carlton based on my example (I know its a Carlton forum not an oppo one so will get slated here as opposed to anywhere else)

Clubs most likely now look to buy 2nds at a higher cost (obviously picks cost less and drop off is huge)

So I would predict instead of doing whats common now getting 4 lots of 30 they aim to trade into 2nd round with futures (common drop off winning 2 in a row is tough) and youll see trades using futures in 2025 to predict 2026 bid. i,e trade out of first 2025 to get a future 2nd from say a bottom 4 side, and then looking to trade future assets to keep the bid match in the 2nd round.

So on that example you keep your pick 18 836

And get in trade using a future pick early to get some seconds late to match, really as i explained to the legend Arrow you hold a first thats what the rule is encouraging vs doing a lions and trading a pick for multiple 2nds, Lions gave you an example this year, Annable will be a top 10 talent so they have added futures early which are the building bloke of lists, 2 years of picks makes it easier!

Hopefully this explains it well, Apologises as its probably going to be past off as 2nd 3rd of 4th hand info, and im selling it for a Buck (Wish YT and content paid bills, shame i busted my arse as a mid 20s to be able to semi retire in my 30s)

Any Questions around this let me know, Aim to make a INDEPTH video on this to compliment the explaination early, Sounds scary BUT...... Its basically Same rules as now, Just cant take the p155 like Lions, Swans etc have in past and blow your first to another top 8 club

Peace Love & Light Pommy
Click to expand...
I've read this twice. Still don't have a clue what's going on.
 
marcmurphy3 said:
In the long run I think it'll work out for us even though the changes are bad timing with Cody.

We'll have to cough up this once but will be a much fairer draft going forward. Will give us access to better talent with academy clubs actually having to use their good picks to pay for talent.

Probably worth the equivalent of 2-3 spots bump in the draft order every year.
Click to expand...

Just tell him to play shit for a couple years. Problem solved.
 

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