Analysis 2024 National Draft

Who will be our first selection on night 2 of the Draft?

  • Total voters
    27
  • Poll closed .

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Markyd said:
Was really concerned by how much draft capital we used on pick three. But the more highlights I see of Jagga the more excited I get, will be a jet. Campo twins were a steal with big Harry O the cherry 🍒 on top. Nick Austin and team smashed it!
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Do you see it this way?

  • traded 14/16 for what they view as 1
  • would have delisted Kennedy if not in contract (cap space) so to get a second for him easily cancels out the 2nd from next year.

I just don’t think they gave up much after all. Kennedy was redundant due to Smith and Lord.
 
Jimmae said:
I mean we basically cashed out of the top 35 in two drafts to make it happen, including coughing up players like Taj Hotton, Cooper Hynes, and Bo Allan along the way. Apparently we could have got a future first and change off North for pick 14 too!

So no, it's not some incredible twist of fate, we've put a lot of eggs in the basket for this one, and we've still got so little faith in the depth chart at either end we're hosting a veritable gaggle of mature talls for one list spot.

It's a gamble. We've got a very good player, and we've got some other solid players, but we're cashing in on the depth of the list and the fortune of securing the Campo twins and Duffy.
Click to expand...
Total garbage Jim.

1. No not future first and change. Just a future first. And so what? It’s a weaker draft next year, the top ten is stacked with academy etc and North will most likely rise.
2. We would have delisted Kennedy if out of contract. He was totally redundant with Smith, Ben C and Lord coming in. So getting a second rounder for him off set (easily) the give for next year.

So skinny up the rubbish to: we gave up two very late first round picks for one pick on a player they rated at ONE.

Calm yourself down with the hyperbolic rubbish.
 

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Michael Jezz said:
Sorry not sure where you are coming from. Austin did the opposite of gamble, he traded into the most derisked part of the draft- a top 3 pick. I would rather invest in a single likely KP or midfield generational, talent than 2 picks around 15 that are usually flanker types. We might have had drafted berry and trainor but we drafted Ofarrel anyway & Berry's a small fwd
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Jim’s play book = “be negative about almost everything the club does”
 
Must admit to being bewildered at some of the bullshit on here.

Our list profile badly needed a young gun. We have that now. Late teen picks? May become afl players. May just be solid. They are gambles. Jagga is not.

Add Cody in 2 years and the profile of guns looks a lot better.

It’s SO hard to get access to top tier talent. So so hard.

I expected to see unanimous support for what the club did here but as usual the contrarians are in here buzz killing away.

I don’t give a shit about mid level players. The club will easily trade and FA them in the years ahead.

It’s top level talent that will make or break us. And injuries of course.

Getting Jagga is out of this world good for us.

We don’t have a depth problem now and there is none on the horizon. Squad is easily 30 deep. If we have to go beyond that it would be due to injuries and that simply can’t happen in a flag tilt.

So screw recruiting for depth. I’m delighted they went for premium talent. Delighted.
 
bradfisher14 said:
I don't understand where you're going with this. Do you think that those names are more likely to make it as AFL players than Jagga Smith?
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No, simply that they are genuine talents and there'd be two of them. You can see other clubs felt this way about the depth given how little teams were getting for trading down.
macky99 said:
l believe you are missing the point in some areas, add a fit Cerra & Walsh to our midfield and the addition of Smith & possibly growth in Wilson we are in good shape in this area.

Austin has clearly gone for quality, he believes Smith is a geninue A grade player for a long period, finding it difficult why this is not a good strategy with the current shape of our list.
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A fit Cerra is a huge issue, and Walsh is pretty much what you see is what you get unless he's pushed to the outside. The kinds of issue he has, they are managed across careers by decreasing workload.

I like Jagga, I just didn't like the totality of our draft hand and feel sticking with (then) 12 & 14 was a sound base.
teddy-hopkins said:
I do wonder why we've left ourselves with no plan B in defense again. It is Weiters or bust with mid sized guys like Haynes and Gov having to play tall all year. We need to find a CHB with the SSP pick and Durdin would be a complete waste of time.
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Haynes is a KPD and will get first crack I'd imagine. We've drafted someone to develop - though I'd preferred we'd have moved up the order a tad to get an even better prospect - and we seem to be rehearsing another 3 or 4 for the role via SSP trials and related scouting.

I would have tried harder to ship out and replace Young in the trade period, and to canvas converting failed forwards over to defence.
FlowersByIrene said:
Also I think you need to let go of the desperation for two picks in the teens. History shows they don't compete with one elite pick. And I think Jagga has them all easily covered. If we had of picked Fos or Lalor you would have had a point. But we pulled it off.
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You keep using pretty strong and emotive language while casting some pretty definitive statements about what can and can't be accomplished.

In fact, this exact exercise was discussed earlier in the thread, and here was my answer:
Jimmae said:
I'll do you one better and show you the 22 I can make:

2013 - Cripps, Jones
2014 - Langford, Weller
2015 - McKay, Gresham
2016 - English, Hayward
2017 - Richards, Bailey
2018 - Clark, Duursma
2019 - Kemp, De Koning
2020 - Henry, Holmes (you mucked this one up!)
2021 - Aleer van Rooyen, Wilmot
2022 - Weddle, Jefferson
2023 - Wilson, Edwards

FB: Wilmot McKay Weddle
HB: Weller SDK Clark
C: Holmes Richards Jones
HF: Gresham Langford Bailey
FF: Henry van Rooyen Hayward

R: English Cripps Kemp

Int: Jefferson, Duursma, Wilson, Edwards

It's a little light up forward and I'd probably swing SDK there if that was the list I was working with, but that's a tall, quick, and crafty team that would bulldoze the opposition in the middle and open things up for the forward line.

If I'm going to release the shackles a little and pick at the pointy end, I'd take Max King in 2018 instead of Clark and Duursma to address the key forward situation, and De Goey ahead of Langford and Weller for more direct firepower.

2022 draft is also a bit of toss-up, but Weddle makes the second pick almost a free hit.

I think I've made my point. :p

EDIT: Swapped van Rooyen in for Aleer

You can say the same thing about Oscar Murdoch, Charlie Clarke, James Van Es, and Tom Emmett. Not a strong draft but I assume they will find AFL homes or go close.
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Weak tall forward contingent, but I quickly noted at the time I'd overlooked Darcy Fogarty as an option in 2017 (instead of Zac Bailey), which would have let me keep Aleer over Van Rooyen and use SDK as a tall utility.

Also would then dump Jefferson (2022) for Hewett, and Langford for Lever like so:

FB: Wilmot B.McKay Weddle
HB: Weller Lever J.Clark
C: Holmes Richards Z.Jones
HF: Gresham SDK X.Duursma
FF: Henry D.Fogarty Hayward

R: English Cripps Kemp

Int: E.Hewett, Aleer, D.Wilson, C.Edwards

So it can be done, but in practical terms it was much harder before live trading. I think what the exercise shows is that elite small forwards and quick clearance mids are harder to come by in that draft range, though the former only became a higher draft priority in the last 4 years or so.
 
Jimmae said:
No, simply that they are genuine talents and there'd be two of them. You can see other clubs felt this way about the depth given how little teams were getting for trading down.

A fit Cerra is a huge issue, and Walsh is pretty much what you see is what you get unless he's pushed to the outside. The kinds of issue he has, they are managed across careers by decreasing workload.

I like Jagga, I just didn't like the totality of our draft hand and feel sticking with (then) 12 & 14 was a sound base.

Haynes is a KPD and will get first crack I'd imagine. We've drafted someone to develop - though I'd preferred we'd have moved up the order a tad to get an even better prospect - and we seem to be rehearsing another 3 or 4 for the role via SSP trials and related scouting.

I would have tried harder to ship out and replace Young in the trade period, and to canvas converting failed forwards over to defence.

You keep using pretty strong and emotive language while casting some pretty definitive statements about what can and can't be accomplished.

In fact, this exact exercise was discussed earlier in the thread, and here was my answer:

Weak tall forward contingent, but I quickly noted at the time I'd overlooked Darcy Fogarty as an option in 2017 (instead of Zac Bailey), which would have let me keep Aleer over Van Rooyen and use SDK as a tall utility.

Also would then dump Jefferson (2022) for Hewett, and Langford for Lever like so:

FB: Wilmot B.McKay Weddle
HB: Weller Lever J.Clark
C: Holmes Richards Z.Jones
HF: Gresham SDK X.Duursma
FF: Henry D.Fogarty Hayward

R: English Cripps Kemp

Int: E.Hewett, Aleer, D.Wilson, C.Edwards

So it can be done, but in practical terms it was much harder before live trading. I think what the exercise shows is that elite small forwards and quick clearance mids are harder to come by in that draft range, though the former only became a higher draft priority in the last 4 years or so.
Click to expand...

Haynes is a KPD? He's never played there in his time at GWS so not sure about that one.
 
WalshistheGOAT said:
I struggle to believe they wouldn't be aware of it but it does seem that way. Not a heap of free agent options on the market next year doesn't bode well if the situation is as dire as it was this year.
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An extra KPD has been the bigger blind spot since Jones left and it is arguable the extent to which it's been resolved considering we were telling Young to look for opportunities elsewhere.

However the optimistic view now could be that Young/SSP are cover for JW and the interceptors can be shuffled and 'play tall' when needed and H3 will now be developed potentially alongside H2 depending on his progression.
 
Last edited:
gbatman said:
PanicIt is, it is for most sides when building a list, it's generally the last piece because historically they come with later picks, are easier to get and take a shorter time to develop.

Our small forwards are makeshift. They are failed forwards and defenders and don't have the natural skillset or forward instincts to play that end at a high level.

Fogarty, Cottrell, Fantasia are very limited and are missing key pieces that would make them genuine forwards.

Owies and Martin are gone.

Motlop has not performed. Durdin has not performed at all since 2022.

Williams is a very good natural all round footballer but does he have it as a forward?

Elijah Hollands is more of a midfielder. He looks like a part time forward not a full time forward.

Moir has it in spades.

Small forwards need to have the smarts. There is a reason they get to the right spots at the right times. They need to be good overhead. They need pace, closing speed and the need to chase, tackle and pressure. They also need good skills to hit targets and kick goals.

I'm sceptical of most of the players mentioned. I think we will be going very very hard at shifting many of those mentioned names off our list and bringing in elite smaller forward talent.

I think we will be hoping Smith can play there a bit. I think we will be hoping like hell that Williams, Motlop and Durdin go up a level. Hollands will play half forward a bit. Kemp is going forward which I like. Moir will play next year. He fills both the small and medium forward position and is a genuine forward.

You can only teach players to play forward to a certain level. There is a limit on how far you can go in making a player into a forward. That limit has been reached with most of the names mentioned. The instincts and IQ can't be taught.

We will be going hard at forwards next year and hopefully Cody Walker fits part of the bill.
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Ultimately there are two outcomes we need up forward - pressure & goals.

Whoever is up there needs to apply pressure to maintain our ground position.

Who kicks the goals & how they are kicked does not matter - tall,
Medium or small - so long as the goals are kicked.

King Charles
Harry
Kemp
TDK
Williams
Moir
Motlop
Durdin
Hollands
Fogerty
Cotters
+ a dynamic midfield chiming in.

We have the mix of a well balanced forward line to apply pressure & kick goals.

I think many here underestimate Motlop & Durdin due to their recent injuries.

Prior form showed what they can do with a clear run - touch wood!

Under Control Esports GIF by Reply Totem
 
Very few players at NAB league start as genuine small forwards, they would have been midfielders at local level and have been taught forward craft and pressure, there is no reason we can’t do the same with some of our kids.
 
swuzzlebubble said:
Seems to be our current LM blind spot
Click to expand...

Williams, Durdin, Motlop, E Hollands, Fogarty, Moir....

I think he's addressed that position in the draft over a few years in Motlop, Durdin and Moir.
The recruiters via free agency in Hollands
The coaches via positional changes in Williams.
 

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ItsAllAboutMe said:
Very few players at NAB league start as genuine small forwards, they would have been midfielders at local level and have been taught forward craft and pressure, there is no reason we can’t do the same with some of our kids.
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The good small forwards pretty much all start as small forwards as junior, maybe with a little midfield time. You need the strikers mentality, not much point trying to turn midfielders into them.
 
windows1 said:
Must admit to being bewildered at some of the bullshit on here.

Our list profile badly needed a young gun. We have that now. Late teen picks? May become afl players. May just be solid. They are gambles. Jagga is not.

Add Cody in 2 years and the profile of guns looks a lot better.

It’s SO hard to get access to top tier talent. So so hard.

I expected to see unanimous support for what the club did here but as usual the contrarians are in here buzz killing away.

I don’t give a shit about mid level players. The club will easily trade and FA them in the years ahead.

It’s top level talent that will make or break us. And injuries of course.

Getting Jagga is out of this world good for us.

We don’t have a depth problem now and there is none on the horizon. Squad is easily 30 deep. If we have to go beyond that it would be due to injuries and that simply can’t happen in a flag tilt.

So screw recruiting for depth. I’m delighted they went for premium talent. Delighted.
Click to expand...

Amen!


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
windows1 said:
Must admit to being bewildered at some of the bullshit on here.

Our list profile badly needed a young gun. We have that now. Late teen picks? May become afl players. May just be solid. They are gambles. Jagga is not.

Add Cody in 2 years and the profile of guns looks a lot better.

It’s SO hard to get access to top tier talent. So so hard.

I expected to see unanimous support for what the club did here but as usual the contrarians are in here buzz killing away.

I don’t give a shit about mid level players. The club will easily trade and FA them in the years ahead.

It’s top level talent that will make or break us. And injuries of course.

Getting Jagga is out of this world good for us.

We don’t have a depth problem now and there is none on the horizon. Squad is easily 30 deep. If we have to go beyond that it would be due to injuries and that simply can’t happen in a flag tilt.

So screw recruiting for depth. I’m delighted they went for premium talent. Delighted.
Click to expand...
This
 
Arr0w said:
Lucky the best players are always taken at the pointy end with no busts and players taken after that never surpass the output of said pointy end players

Also lucky that recruiters pick the best players at each selection they have at their disposal
Click to expand...

In my opinion, this thinking actually favours trading up to pick 3 rather than staying with 12 & 14 unless you expect us to select who turns out to be the best player available at our picks. There is a good chance that there will be two players who were available at 12 & 14 who combined have a much better career than Smith. But would we have picked them? Its unlikely.

Just as there are top 3 busts there are top 15 busts too (which are of course far more likely). It is too much to expect the LM team to simply draft players who far exceed the expected return of their draft position.

Season 4 Episode 21 GIF by The Simpsons
 
9874123 said:
In my opinion, this thinking actually favours trading up to pick 3 rather than staying with 12 & 14 unless you expect us to select who turns out to be the best player available at our picks. There is a good chance that there will be two players who were available at 12 & 14 who combined have a much better career than Smith. But would we have picked them? Its unlikely.

Just as there are top 3 busts there are top 15 busts too (which are of course far more likely). It is too much to expect the LM team to simply draft players who far exceed the expected return of their draft position.

Season 4 Episode 21 GIF by The Simpsons
Click to expand...

Makes for interesting debate
 
9874123 said:
In my opinion, this thinking actually favours trading up to pick 3 rather than staying with 12 & 14 unless you expect us to select who turns out to be the best player available at our picks. There is a good chance that there will be two players who were available at 12 & 14 who combined have a much better career than Smith. But would we have picked them? Its unlikely.

Just as there are top 3 busts there are top 15 busts too (which are of course far more likely). It is too much to expect the LM team to simply draft players who far exceed the expected return of their draft position.

Season 4 Episode 21 GIF by The Simpsons
Click to expand...

Yep, I agree with this.

Had we held onto our picks, we would have had 15 and 17.

The chances of nailing both are slim.

The chances of picking a dud at 3 are slim.

Let's say we would have nailed pick 15 and 17 ends up a dud. The chances of that pick 15 player being better than the pick 3 player are slim.

Never any guarantees. Austin obviously is very confident that Jagger will end up being better than say Berry + Reid.
 

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