List Mgmt. 2024 Trade Thread - No.1

[littlecreatures]

To be fair to Gringo. Marshall has had talk in the last 2 weeks

And Howard has clearly been looking around and we are perfectly fine with that.

But there is nuances and flexes in this entire thing that prevent it from even being in the ball park of a tear down rebuild

Talk of clubs having an interest in Ro, hardly talk which quantifies the club taking an interest in churning over Ro as part of a bottom out.

There’s also a bit of context missing around Dougald. Seemed to be at its peak last year when every man and their dog wanted him out, would’ve had a conniption at the thought of another mid game brain fade.

 

[StFly]

We might not bottom out but when the positivity is trading good players away and getting Butts and Thomlison in instead. It all sounds as inspiring as Ross Lyon's game plan. The one draft we go balls deep into is the most average one in ages.

This is the sort of draft where you look at the big middle at clubs and go "I can upgrade these pieces sideways", that's kind of where we sit at present.

We have the old guys all "are you still good and can you maintain it to an acceptable level thanks".
We have the new guys all "you guys are good but far too fresh to handle any sort of authority in much of anything, but we hope..."

And in the middle we have guys that get shopped around, do the shopping, and the Olli only Sandy v Butts of joke end for "can you get better and would it matter?" discussion types that drafts like this essentially cater for.

You always need potato with meat, this draft is the potato to your Harley Reid/JHF meat sort of drafts.

Bottoming out is a misnomer really, as clubs generally always keep the AAA, always keep the very young newbies and always shift the big middle around unless something specific happens, like you're skipping 2x top 5's on a rando HBF when you have 12 of them, even if you rate the kid for example, but you would shop half of them to a new good home if given the chance.

Take North for example, they have many many many kids, they ran the risk of a losing culture and just good enough is good enough. The very second they don't like that sort of risk, that sort of short term pain, they're then buying from that middle to grow alongside the promising kids that then have new better standards to match from more professional instances from highly successful... you get the idea.

Then the questions become; are you the one selling, are you the one buying, how much of whatever decisions did you make or were they forced upon you.

tldr: you've the salt for the potato, enjoy the potato as nice and toasty.

 

[stavro#4]

Talk of clubs having an interest in Ro, hardly talk which quantifies the club taking an interest in churning over Ro as part of a bottom out.

There’s also a bit of context missing around Dougald. Seemed to be at its peak last year when every man and their dog wanted him out, would’ve had a conniption at the thought of another mid game brain fade.

Dougal hasn’t had talks yet. Webster and Butler have.

That’s alarming to an extent. It implies we will deal with him late on and he can shop himself around.

 

[Brian Oblivion]

Why do you spiral so much?

Unpack everything you are moaning about and apply a realistic and factual lens

Battle: no control over what he does - but it could mean we effectively get value over his actual market worth.

Marshall: on the off chance Cleary and that monkey McClure are correct. He is contracted until 2027. Which club has picks and or young players to do a deal?

The list is so small that chances are you would be happy with the outcome.

Howard: is as dog shit as Butts and Tomlinson. Except - he is paid significantly more.

just relax

Agree, gringo2011, have a Bex and a good lie down, there’s a good lad.

 

[gringo2011]

Why do you spiral so much?

Unpack everything you are moaning about and apply a realistic and factual lens

Battle: no control over what he does - but it could mean we effectively get value over his actual market worth.

Marshall: on the off chance Cleary and that monkey McClure are correct. He is contracted until 2027. Which club has picks and or young players to do a deal?

The list is so small that chances are you would be happy with the outcome.

Howard: is as dog shit as Butts and Tomlinson. Except - he is paid significantly more.

just relax

I'm spiralling because there is never any hope with this club. Just waiting for draft picks that never come on and pushing the chances of success further away.

Lyon was meant to get us competitive quicker. Now we are looking at 2027 to get back where we were under Ratts and that's if we don't **** up drafting. I just want to play finals and not have to wait for these **** heads to get their shit together.

Hawks aren't there but they have built positivity. We feel like we are patching a sinking boat and it's been 14 years since we were seriously competitive. We are looking at a 20 year rebuild. That's just humiliating in a system made to keep sides competitive.

 

[Joffaboy]

Dougal hasn’t had talks yet. Webster and Butler have.

That’s alarming to an extent. It implies we will deal with him late on and he can shop himself around.

SO WE ARE BOTTOMING OUT

 

[DougalHoward]

Dougal is paid more than those scrubs because he's better than them!!

 

[stavro#4]

We have missed out on Moyle

 

[stavro#4]

Dougal is paid more than those scrubs because he's better than them!!

Yeah at pirouettes.

Calm down Dougal

 

[Miha]

Is Xerri still keen?

 

[Joffaboy]

Is Xerri still keen?

Is Dusty Martin still keen?

 

[stavro#4]

Ned Reeves

 

[DougalHoward]

Let's get rid of our number 1 midfielder, ruck and only >195cm key defender in one off season.

 

[Saint Watto]

Agree, gringo2011, have a Bex and a good lie down, there’s a good lad.

My word there BO.

"Have a Bex and lie down"

Your showing your age there !!!!!!!

 

[CaptainRisky]

Agreed.

The way I see it is that there are 3 levels to our list (by age); the senior leaders, the core, and the youth

Our premiership window is targeted at 2027 & beyond, so on December 31 2026:
Hill will be 33 (i think he can play until 35 though, he doesn't look like slowing down anytime soon)
Wood will be 33 (probably retired or retiring soon)
Steele will be 31
Wilkie will be 31
Sinclair will be 31 (32 in 2 months)
Marshall will be 31
Butler will be 30

Once we hit the window, I expect us to probably target a couple of other senior leaders (Parker types, but not yet) to top up this part of the demographic, so we'll have a couple more of these leaders

These are the sorts of guys I want to see being the senior leaders of the team like Pendles, Howe, Mitchell, Sidebottom, WHE etc. at Collingwood for their '23 flag, but the tilt is not dependent on them, it's dependent on the core with the likes of Daicos x2, JDG, Crisp, Mihocek, Moore, Murphy, Quaynor, Maynard, Elliott etc., which is what Higgins, King, Nas, Owens, Windy, Henry are to us - hopefully Clark, Dow, Stocker, Sharman can elevate themselves to this level. Not enough in this demographic on our list atm. Then we have Pou, Wilson, Arie, Garcia etc. to hopefully be the electric young brigade like McCreery, Hill, Ginni etc.

There are probably a couple too many of the older types at the moment, which is why I'm ok with a Marshall departure as long as we get at least fair value in return, and it supplements that core of prime players that we don't have enough of. Whether its through draft picks or mature players or both, idm, but this part of our list is the biggest issue atm. It's kind of like a restructure - sacrifice a piece of the senior leaders to boost the core of the list ahead of Tassie. Ruckmen never define a flag tilt, and I don't expect Marshall to be an outlier to this trend so he is definitely replaceable if we do it right. Pies won a flag with a recycled Swans backup ruckman, Geelong did it with a recycled Saints backup, Richmond did it with a recycled Swans ruck too. That accounts for 4 of the past 5 premierships - with a generational Max Gawn as the exception

So if we can get someone like a Ned Moyle to replace Marshall and develop with the rest of the 'core' in the same age bracket, it would benefit the demographic and also free up 500k/year in the cap (assuming Moyle costs 400k/yr hypothetically). Max Heath also looks like he's improved quite significantly the past month, so see how he continues to track post-bye. Get two guns for Marshall (whether its through draft or an established player) that could define not only our next window, but sustain this window for as long as possible in support to the Nas Windy Owens crop. We need to get all the required youth and core players in before Tassie enter the comp. Then hopefully bring in LDU, the core looks a lot stronger. I am certain we will target another FA in the 24-28 age bracket probably next year which would also catalyse this area, then another couple in '26

There's going to be a ton of list turnover over the next 4 years to prepare us for a sustained premiership window, not just some random 3 year period where we go well but then fall off a cliff. Tough decisions will be made on some players, but we will get a lot in return too to make up for it. Guys like Seb Ross and Armo amongst others were probably indeed trades when everyone thought it would ruin us and now we regret it, so hopefully we've learned our lesson. Right now, the composition of our list is an absolute mess - our 25-28 yr olds are non-existent - so while we are not contending, we need to make sure that this part of the list is not bare when the window hits - hence the recruitments of Henry, Dow, Stocker who will be in the range at around '26. Top up the foundations with youth, get LDU + another into the core and once we hit the window, get the senior guys and the cherries on top

Why do you keep saying marshall is worth two guns , I think you are overrating him a bit , I love the bloke but 2 guns is a stretch

 

[gubby88]

Honestly hope we don't give King a fat contract. Would rather risk him leaving. It would be better for both to separate. If we are bottoming out his career will be wasted.

The young group is year off if they even make it. Our likely to make it group under 22 are Ari, Windy, Owens, Nas, Wilson and maybe Pou. Then possibles in guys like Hastie, Garcia, Keeler, Collard etc.

I'm guessing they take over the reins at around 26. Around 5 years if they all stay and make it to the top. Snags, King, Battle and Henry the only middle age bracket guys that look likely to still be good then.

If we are offering nothing for that long I can't see how we even survive as a club. We haven't offered anything since 2011 apart from a couple of false hope moments. We have completely ****ed another rebuild and are going again on the same path that lead nowhere.

If I was Basset I'd sack Lyon now and chase a round coach with new ideas and see if we can revive what we have.

I reckon we'll **** this up and be further away when Lyon pisses off than when he arrived. Bottoming out is a disaster.

forgive me of im wrong, but werent you the one that carried on about the trading we did was wrong and we should be bottoming out...now we are doing it right, but youre complaining that we arent doing it right????



On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[akaifu]

Why do you keep saying marshall is worth two guns , I think you are overrating him a bit , I love the bloke but 2 guns is a stretch

2 guns as in 2 top draft picks

 

[CaptainRisky]

2 guns as in 2 top draft picks

So you think we would get two picks in the first round ?

 

[Joffaboy]

So you think we would get two picks in the first round ?

I think it is because he is contracted to the end of 2027.
The contract means a premium on a player.

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[PoppedCorn]

We are looking at a 20 year rebuild. That's just humiliating in a system made to keep sides competitive.

jesus i bloody hope not lol

 

[Leap of Faith]

Except the players felt their coach and their training environment was not getting the most out of them.

Hence the Ratten sacking.

SOS in one trade and draft period landed us Henry - and pulled off a positive draft night trade and maintained all our first round picks.

You might not like him. He however has not put a foot wrong.

You love Toce. But he has been replaced by a better credentialed person - with proven success at developing quality deep lists.

I can’t recall another instance of us using four or five picks in a draft and all of them having played a game by round 14. And all looking like they could be valuable players.

 

[Dr Spaceman]

 

[akaifu]

So you think we would get two picks in the first round ?

Yes, that's the only way we let Row leave unless its a top 3 pick in which case we take it on its own with maybe something small

 

[CaptainRisky]

Yes, that's the only way we let Row leave unless its a top 3 pick in which case we take it on its own with maybe something small

You need to put those rose coloured glasses away , pick 3 you are absolutely kidding yourself, just stop now , you're going to fall into that hole you're digging

 

[jumperfan]

Christ we're not even a week into the bye break and the next 20 years of the club have already been written off.