List Mgmt. 2024 Trade Thread - No.2

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Worst case could also be we pick up two spuds who play less than 20 games each before being traded or delisted for peanuts and Houston goes on to be a 4/5 time aa and helps another team win a flag while we are still waiting for those midfielders we picked up in the draft to come good.
A bird in the and all that.

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Alternatively we could pick up Rozee and Butters like players yo go with Naz, Pou, Wilson, and Garcia and have the best midfield in the league taking us to multiple premiership, while wasting draft capital on a hbf'er keeps us in the doldrums for another decade.
Unless you are a fortune teller and know the future stop making up bs scenarios

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Alternatively we could pick up Rozee and Butters like players yo go with Naz, Pou, Wilson, and Garcia and have the best midfield in the league taking us to multiple premiership, while wasting draft capital on a hbf'er keeps us in the doldrums for another decade.
Unless you are a fortune teller and know the future stop making up bs scenarios

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Your scenario of picking up a rozee and butters is as much (if not more) unlikely than my scenario. Also I'm allowed to share my opinion. You don't have to agree with it but it doesn't make it invalid.

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He'd be a good Crouch replacement and a better option than Shiel.
I'm not one to exaggerate, but my 6 year old daughter, who did one Auskick session but was scared by the boisterous young boys and never went back, would LITERALLY be a better option than Shiel.

But like I said, I'm not one to exaggerate.
 

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Yes, which is why we should be after the AA one. There will be fall-out at the dogs and Bevo could be out which presents the opportunity for us. We can offer more money and security and he becomes our best or 2nd best mid. At 31 he would be thinking about his future, I'm not sure Bulldogs with their star-studded team will be so willing to present an All-Australian re-signing offer he would be happy with.
Reality says one is gettable and the other isnt. That's why we are going after Macrae.
 
Worst case could also be we pick up two spuds who play less than 20 games each before being traded or delisted for peanuts and Houston goes on to be a 4/5 time aa and helps another team win a flag while we are still waiting for those midfielders we picked up in the draft to come good.
A bird in the and all that.

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Worst case is a wash out. Same as what i said.
Worst case for a trade: something goes wrong ... Nothing.
Worst case for a draft pick : something goes wrong ... Nothing.
If you have 2 early draft picks, its something going wrong twice, meaning you have to be extra unlucky.
If we get two early draft picks and they are both spuds, unless everyone else in the draft was a spud too, we should sack Darymple and SOS and start over.

How many games would we get out of Houston?
Its very possible we get 500 games out of two first round draft picks.

Best/Worse analysis, you compare the best result with the worst.
In this case the worst result is the same, but the best result for drafting is much better.

Unless you think Houston would single handedly get us a premiership.
 
There are literally multiple top 10 busts in every year of the draft. I'll name a few from the last few 5 drafts:
2018
- Chayce Jones
2019
  • Fisher mcasey
  • Dylan Stephens

2020
-Nick Cox
-Zach Reid
-will Phillips
2021
Josh gibcus

Now obviously these guys still have time to get their career going but most likely none of them will be guns.

I would agree you cannot use two first round picks for him but if he was available with the battle compensation first round pick then I would absolutely do that. Gives us a gun player for now and a draft pick for future. With how even the comp is at the moment it's definitely an era where you can Jag a premiership from seemingly nowhere.

Just my opinion anyway

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Luckily older players are immune to ACL injury right?
 
Your scenario of picking up a rozee and butters is as much (if not more) unlikely than my scenario. Also I'm allowed to share my opinion. You don't have to agree with it but it doesn't make it invalid.

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And I can disagree with your opinion, that's what a thread like this is about.

And I disagree with the opinion that spending scarce draft capital on a player, while excellent is not the best fit for our current list.
Saying we are going to have two busts at 7 and 8, while not inconceivable, does not add weight weight to your argument.

Rozee was pick 5, Butters pick 12, considering we have selected King, Naz, Pou and Wilson all around those picks, even Clark at 7 is coming good, why would we not pick up two excellent mids in that range considering our strike rate over the past 7 years.
Houston is a very good player, you don't become dual AA without being that, but it would be like burning 2 year capital on Ben King when we already have a version of him.

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Worst case is a wash out. Same as what i said.
Worst case for a trade: something goes wrong ... Nothing.
Worst case for a draft pick : something goes wrong ... Nothing.
If you have 2 early draft picks, its something going wrong twice, meaning you have to be extra unlucky.
If we get two early draft picks and they are both spuds, unless everyone else in the draft was a spud too, we should sack Darymple and SOS and start over.

How many games would we get out of Houston?
Its very possible we get 500 games out of two first round draft picks.

Best/Worse analysis, you compare the best result with the worst.
In this case the worst result is the same, but the best result for drafting is much better.

Unless you think Houston would single handedly get us a premiership.
If you go by that logic no trade would ever get done because the chance of picking up a 300 game superstar would always outweigh the benefit of the player to be traded in.
Got to take probabilities into it.
Probability of Houston playing 75-100 good to very good games for the saints is reasonably high. And the chance of him playing all bad games or not playing at all of slim.
The probability of both pick 7 and pick 8 having long very successful careers is moderate and you would be extremely fortuitous if both ended up playing 150+.
Anyway. Probably enough discussion on the point, my view is that we should look at him if it only costs a single first round pick. Anything more than that and I would agree with you and everyone else

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I think Hunter is a good player even if he isn’t a great one but Dow was a major disappointment for me this year. If he’s got good speed we didn’t see any evidence of it and he barely found the ball. I’ll give him one more year then all hope will be lost with him.
He's a high impact player but obviously not sufficiently athletic for the modern game. He's the kind that you'd hope you can phase out but given our demographic he serves a purpose for now.
 
Trade top picks for Houston!
beating a dead horse wtf GIF
 

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Reality says one is gettable and the other isnt. That's why we are going after Macrae.
Been very little said about Crouch.
Do we know for certain he’s done? Or are we still hoping? If the former, I’d be paying him out and creating another list spot.
 
I think Hunter is a good player even if he isn’t a great one but Dow was a major disappointment for me this year. If he’s got good speed we didn’t see any evidence of it and he barely found the ball. I’ll give him one more year then all hope will be lost with him.

Paddy was off legs for over 2 months of the pre season/start of season. Not many players perform after an interruption like that. We witnessed glimpses of what he can offer and I expect a much better season next year barring any injury. For a midfield that can’t buy a centre clearance he’s vitally important to us.
 
If you go by that logic no trade would ever get done because the chance of picking up a 300 game superstar would always outweigh the benefit of the player to be traded in.
Got to take probabilities into it.
Probability of Houston playing 75-100 good to very good games for the saints is reasonably high. And the chance of him playing all bad games or not playing at all of slim.
The probability of both pick 7 and pick 8 having long very successful careers is moderate and you would be extremely fortuitous if both ended up playing 150+.
Anyway. Probably enough discussion on the point, my view is that we should look at him if it only costs a single first round pick. Anything more than that and I would agree with you and everyone else

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You’re missing an important point where do these scenarios potentially get you ?. Houston does nothing for us full stop and therefore isn’t a viable option. We’re trying to build a contending list, he’s not part of that except as a very expensive transitional player who will cost you the guys who will hopefully take us forward.
 
Injury bust is still a bust.

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So Lenny Hayes, Brendan Goddard were busts because they did an ACL early on. Give it a break you are not dealing with any reality...

We will take two or even three early picks at the draft and all will be excellent 15 year players. You can give up on your obsession with Houston.
 
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