- Sep 30, 2014
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- AFL Club
- Carlton
Quick question: if nobody is rating the campo boys …why do we want them?
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Quick question: if nobody is rating the campo boys …why do we want them?
Partly because FS and academy boys always tend to get undervalued because every other club focuses on gettable targets. Will Graham last year is a fine example. Nick Daicos another.Quick question: if nobody is rating the campo boys …why do we want them?
Great answer!
Great answer!
Thx, I get that, & ND is a poor example as he is/ was rated by everyone..Partly because FS and academy boys always tend to get undervalued because every other club focuses on gettable targets. Will Graham last year is a fine example. Nick Daicos another.
Must be good to be a know it all!
Mate, they are both rubbish. Especially Ben. Not even worth a rookie spot if you ask meQuick question: if nobody is rating the campo boys …why do we want them?
Obviously I don’t know much about them, except they’re FS.. it was a serious question.Mate, they are both rubbish. Especially Ben. Not even worth a rookie spot if you ask me
If you knew the person? Maybe.Sarcasm anyone ?
Hello to all the recruiters out there reading thisMate, they are both rubbish. Especially Ben. Not even worth a rookie spot if you ask me
Thx, I get that, & ND is a poor example as he is/ was rated by everyone..
My point is surely if they are any good other teams will pick them ..we then match , but to get to 5he rookie draft?
Great post.I think it's really about the strategy of drafting though. There is a bunch of advantages that come with F/S over and beyond having the rights to the player themselves
The biggest benefit of F/S and academy imo is how big the information gap between the club and every other club is when it comes to these prospects, combined with having an 'option' to bid on them.
We have seen the Camporeale kids up close, know how they train, how they interact with other members of the club, how they fit within our systems. Other clubs have... some SANFL reserves matches and a handful of games against other Under 18s (I don't think they even did the combine?).
There is a real game theory element to this. Let's say a player like Ben Camporeale is predicted to go somewhere in the 20s and we can match using a discount (pick 38).
If you are a non-Carlton club, you have a real conundrum here. If you are a club that holds a pick in the 20s and you bid on Camporeal there are two possible scenarios:
1. Carlton (who have more info than you) think he is worth matching. In which case the other club misses out
2. Carlton (who have more info than you) think he is not worth bidding even though we can match with PICK 38 (ie - a discount).
For any club with a pick in the 20s, to actually GET a Camporeale brother means they have just used a pick in the 20s on a player that an opponent (who have a family connection, and have a lot more info about the player) have avoided even with a discount applied... instant buyers remorse.
It really only makes sense to bid on a Camporeale brother with a pick roughly around our next pick - mid 30s.
But, by this point in the draft, lets also remember that club preferences and player ratings diverge quite highly. Clubs also only have a certain number of picks and list spots, may be targetting certain 'types', and will see players they have scouted heavily slide, etc.
So having established that no-one wants to bid on Camporeale with a pick in the 20s, now its teams in the 30s, but lets now throw some hypotheticals in here (remembering picks will be traded all over the place):
- pick 31 --> this team is targeting a ruck, saw 2 of the 3 prospects they like go already, and don't want to miss out, so they take a ruck
- pick 32 --> this team really liked a guy predicted to go in the late teens, but who slid in the draft... they rate him clearly above Camporeale
- pick 33--> this team is stacked with young midfielders. They aren't going to be able to get Camporeale playing time, and probably want more outside run anyway.
- pick 34 is a Northern state team. They LOVE Camporeale, but see no point in bidding on a player who has family in SA AND a family connection in Melboure who is a flight risk. There is a decent Queensland prospect sitting right there...
- pick 35 --> already used this pick to match a F/S bid of their own
- pick 36 --> this team doesn't really have a list spot free. Crazy, but they've looked at the board, and would rather keep a spot open for a late free agent or rookie upgrade...
- pick 37 ---> really think hard about bidding on Camporeale. I mean, why not just make Carlton use the points next bid. But, they aren't Dodoro or Silvagni, and in fact, they get on well with the other list managers, and next year they have a couple of academy prospects of their own, and they just decide not to do it...
And suddenly even though every team rates Ben Camporeale somewhere in the 20s, we're getting our pick 38
And the from here, who knows how far he slides. At this stage, EVERY club knows that we're able to match with trash picks, we're getting a bit of a steal -> there's little point bidding at all and wasting everyone's time. Particularly because this is the tricky part of the draft and they've got a lot to think about with their own picks...
It's possible someone really likes Camporeale (ie rates him as close to top 10) and bids at 20. But in a deep draft, it's equally possible that we don't see a bid until the 40s or 50s imo... works out great for us.
Take a more extreme version of that logic and apply to Lucas - he might be rated by everyone as a good prospect, but there's no way anyone bothers bidding imo - he's a very strong chance to get to the rookie draft
I think it's really about the strategy of drafting though. There is a bunch of advantages that come with F/S over and beyond having the rights to the player themselves
The biggest benefit of F/S and academy imo is how big the information gap between the club and every other club is when it comes to these prospects, combined with having an 'option' to bid on them.
We have seen the Camporeale kids up close, know how they train, how they interact with other members of the club, how they fit within our systems. Other clubs have... some SANFL reserves matches and a handful of games against other Under 18s (I don't think they even did the combine?).
There is a real game theory element to this. Let's say a player like Ben Camporeale is predicted to go somewhere in the 20s and we can match using a discount (pick 38).
If you are a non-Carlton club, you have a real conundrum here. If you are a club that holds a pick in the 20s and you bid on Camporeal there are two possible scenarios:
1. Carlton (who have more info than you) think he is worth matching. In which case the other club misses out
2. Carlton (who have more info than you) think he is not worth bidding even though we can match with PICK 38 (ie - a discount).
For any club with a pick in the 20s, to actually GET a Camporeale brother means they have just used a pick in the 20s on a player that an opponent (who have a family connection, and have a lot more info about the player) have avoided even with a discount applied... instant buyers remorse.
It really only makes sense to bid on a Camporeale brother with a pick roughly around our next pick - mid 30s.
But, by this point in the draft, lets also remember that club preferences and player ratings diverge quite highly. Clubs also only have a certain number of picks and list spots, may be targetting certain 'types', and will see players they have scouted heavily slide, etc.
So having established that no-one wants to bid on Camporeale with a pick in the 20s, now its teams in the 30s, but lets now throw some hypotheticals in here (remembering picks will be traded all over the place):
- pick 31 --> this team is targeting a ruck, saw 2 of the 3 prospects they like go already, and don't want to miss out, so they take a ruck
- pick 32 --> this team really liked a guy predicted to go in the late teens, but who slid in the draft... they rate him clearly above Camporeale
- pick 33--> this team is stacked with young midfielders. They aren't going to be able to get Camporeale playing time, and probably want more outside run anyway.
- pick 34 is a Northern state team. They LOVE Camporeale, but see no point in bidding on a player who has family in SA AND a family connection in Melboure who is a flight risk. There is a decent Queensland prospect sitting right there...
- pick 35 --> already used this pick to match a F/S bid of their own
- pick 36 --> this team doesn't really have a list spot free. Crazy, but they've looked at the board, and would rather keep a spot open for a late free agent or rookie upgrade...
- pick 37 ---> really think hard about bidding on Camporeale. I mean, why not just make Carlton use the points next bid. But, they aren't Dodoro or Silvagni, and in fact, they get on well with the other list managers, and next year they have a couple of academy prospects of their own, and they just decide not to do it...
And suddenly even though every team rates Ben Camporeale somewhere in the 20s, we're getting our pick 38
And the from here, who knows how far he slides. At this stage, EVERY club knows that we're able to match with trash picks, we're getting a bit of a steal -> there's little point bidding at all and wasting everyone's time. Particularly because this is the tricky part of the draft and they've got a lot to think about with their own picks...
It's possible someone really likes Camporeale (ie rates him as close to top 10) and bids at 20. But in a deep draft, it's equally possible that we don't see a bid until the 40s or 50s imo... works out great for us.
Take a more extreme version of that logic and apply to Lucas - he might be rated by everyone as a good prospect, but there's no way anyone bothers bidding imo - he's a very strong chance to get to the rookie draft