List Mgmt. 2025 List Management 📃

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Bluechip66 said:
Quick question: if nobody is rating the campo boys …why do we want them?
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esoteric said:
Partly because FS and academy boys always tend to get undervalued because every other club focuses on gettable targets. Will Graham last year is a fine example. Nick Daicos another.
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Thx, I get that, & ND is a poor example as he is/ was rated by everyone..
My point is surely if they are any good other teams will pick them ..we then match , but to get to 5he rookie draft?
 

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Bluechip66 said:
Thx, I get that, & ND is a poor example as he is/ was rated by everyone..
My point is surely if they are any good other teams will pick them ..we then match , but to get to 5he rookie draft?
Click to expand...

I think it's really about the strategy of drafting though. There is a bunch of advantages that come with F/S over and beyond having the rights to the player themselves

The biggest benefit of F/S and academy imo is how big the information gap between the club and every other club is when it comes to these prospects, combined with having an 'option' to bid on them.

We have seen the Camporeale kids up close, know how they train, how they interact with other members of the club, how they fit within our systems. Other clubs have... some SANFL reserves matches and a handful of games against other Under 18s (I don't think they even did the combine?).

There is a real game theory element to this. Let's say a player like Ben Camporeale is predicted to go somewhere in the 20s and we can match using a discount (pick 38).

If you are a non-Carlton club, you have a real conundrum here. If you are a club that holds a pick in the 20s and you bid on Camporeal there are two possible scenarios:
1. Carlton (who have more info than you) think he is worth matching. In which case the other club misses out
2. Carlton (who have more info than you) think he is not worth bidding even though we can match with PICK 38 (ie - a discount).

For any club with a pick in the 20s, to actually GET a Camporeale brother means they have just used a pick in the 20s on a player that an opponent (who have a family connection, and have a lot more info about the player) have avoided even with a discount applied... instant buyers remorse.

It really only makes sense to bid on a Camporeale brother with a pick roughly around our next pick - mid 30s.

But, by this point in the draft, lets also remember that club preferences and player ratings diverge quite highly. Clubs also only have a certain number of picks and list spots, may be targetting certain 'types', and will see players they have scouted heavily slide, etc.

So having established that no-one wants to bid on Camporeale with a pick in the 20s, now its teams in the 30s, but lets now throw some hypotheticals in here (remembering picks will be traded all over the place):

  • pick 31 --> this team is targeting a ruck, saw 2 of the 3 prospects they like go already, and don't want to miss out, so they take a ruck
  • pick 32 --> this team really liked a guy predicted to go in the late teens, but who slid in the draft... they rate him clearly above Camporeale
  • pick 33--> this team is stacked with young midfielders. They aren't going to be able to get Camporeale playing time, and probably want more outside run anyway.
  • pick 34 is a Northern state team. They LOVE Camporeale, but see no point in bidding on a player who has family in SA AND a family connection in Melboure who is a flight risk. There is a decent Queensland prospect sitting right there...
  • pick 35 --> already used this pick to match a F/S bid of their own
  • pick 36 --> this team doesn't really have a list spot free. Crazy, but they've looked at the board, and would rather keep a spot open for a late free agent or rookie upgrade...
  • pick 37 ---> really think hard about bidding on Camporeale. I mean, why not just make Carlton use the points next bid. But, they aren't Dodoro or Silvagni, and in fact, they get on well with the other list managers, and next year they have a couple of academy prospects of their own, and they just decide not to do it...

And suddenly even though every team rates Ben Camporeale somewhere in the 20s, we're getting our pick 38

And the from here, who knows how far he slides. At this stage, EVERY club knows that we're able to match with trash picks, we're getting a bit of a steal -> there's little point bidding at all and wasting everyone's time. Particularly because this is the tricky part of the draft and they've got a lot to think about with their own picks...

It's possible someone really likes Camporeale (ie rates him as close to top 10) and bids at 20. But in a deep draft, it's equally possible that we don't see a bid until the 40s or 50s imo... works out great for us.

Take a more extreme version of that logic and apply to Lucas - he might be rated by everyone as a good prospect, but there's no way anyone bothers bidding imo - he's a very strong chance to get to the rookie draft
 
I don’t have an issue with any of our delistings or trades. None will hurt our list, though Owies, Kennedy & J.Carroll, would have been decent depth.

Think we will cut deeper next year. Also think Hewett will get pushed out of the midfield next year like Kennedy did this year.

It confuses me. After multiple years on the list we know what Durdin offers us, SFA. WTF would we waste a train on spot on him.

It looks like we’ll be taking predominately mids in the draft. I’d hope with our rookie spots, we’d be looking at KP, Small Forward or Mid/Forward depth:

McMahon (VFL)
White (VFL)
Phillips
Culley
Hotton (if delisted)
Lazzaro
Burgeil
Overlooked kids from the draft

Gone cold on DGB, I didn’t realise he was an undersized third tall at 194cm
 
Last edited:
btdg said:
I think it's really about the strategy of drafting though. There is a bunch of advantages that come with F/S over and beyond having the rights to the player themselves

The biggest benefit of F/S and academy imo is how big the information gap between the club and every other club is when it comes to these prospects, combined with having an 'option' to bid on them.

We have seen the Camporeale kids up close, know how they train, how they interact with other members of the club, how they fit within our systems. Other clubs have... some SANFL reserves matches and a handful of games against other Under 18s (I don't think they even did the combine?).

There is a real game theory element to this. Let's say a player like Ben Camporeale is predicted to go somewhere in the 20s and we can match using a discount (pick 38).

If you are a non-Carlton club, you have a real conundrum here. If you are a club that holds a pick in the 20s and you bid on Camporeal there are two possible scenarios:
1. Carlton (who have more info than you) think he is worth matching. In which case the other club misses out
2. Carlton (who have more info than you) think he is not worth bidding even though we can match with PICK 38 (ie - a discount).

For any club with a pick in the 20s, to actually GET a Camporeale brother means they have just used a pick in the 20s on a player that an opponent (who have a family connection, and have a lot more info about the player) have avoided even with a discount applied... instant buyers remorse.

It really only makes sense to bid on a Camporeale brother with a pick roughly around our next pick - mid 30s.

But, by this point in the draft, lets also remember that club preferences and player ratings diverge quite highly. Clubs also only have a certain number of picks and list spots, may be targetting certain 'types', and will see players they have scouted heavily slide, etc.

So having established that no-one wants to bid on Camporeale with a pick in the 20s, now its teams in the 30s, but lets now throw some hypotheticals in here (remembering picks will be traded all over the place):

  • pick 31 --> this team is targeting a ruck, saw 2 of the 3 prospects they like go already, and don't want to miss out, so they take a ruck
  • pick 32 --> this team really liked a guy predicted to go in the late teens, but who slid in the draft... they rate him clearly above Camporeale
  • pick 33--> this team is stacked with young midfielders. They aren't going to be able to get Camporeale playing time, and probably want more outside run anyway.
  • pick 34 is a Northern state team. They LOVE Camporeale, but see no point in bidding on a player who has family in SA AND a family connection in Melboure who is a flight risk. There is a decent Queensland prospect sitting right there...
  • pick 35 --> already used this pick to match a F/S bid of their own
  • pick 36 --> this team doesn't really have a list spot free. Crazy, but they've looked at the board, and would rather keep a spot open for a late free agent or rookie upgrade...
  • pick 37 ---> really think hard about bidding on Camporeale. I mean, why not just make Carlton use the points next bid. But, they aren't Dodoro or Silvagni, and in fact, they get on well with the other list managers, and next year they have a couple of academy prospects of their own, and they just decide not to do it...

And suddenly even though every team rates Ben Camporeale somewhere in the 20s, we're getting our pick 38

And the from here, who knows how far he slides. At this stage, EVERY club knows that we're able to match with trash picks, we're getting a bit of a steal -> there's little point bidding at all and wasting everyone's time. Particularly because this is the tricky part of the draft and they've got a lot to think about with their own picks...

It's possible someone really likes Camporeale (ie rates him as close to top 10) and bids at 20. But in a deep draft, it's equally possible that we don't see a bid until the 40s or 50s imo... works out great for us.

Take a more extreme version of that logic and apply to Lucas - he might be rated by everyone as a good prospect, but there's no way anyone bothers bidding imo - he's a very strong chance to get to the rookie draft
Click to expand...
Great post.
 
btdg said:
I think it's really about the strategy of drafting though. There is a bunch of advantages that come with F/S over and beyond having the rights to the player themselves

The biggest benefit of F/S and academy imo is how big the information gap between the club and every other club is when it comes to these prospects, combined with having an 'option' to bid on them.

We have seen the Camporeale kids up close, know how they train, how they interact with other members of the club, how they fit within our systems. Other clubs have... some SANFL reserves matches and a handful of games against other Under 18s (I don't think they even did the combine?).

There is a real game theory element to this. Let's say a player like Ben Camporeale is predicted to go somewhere in the 20s and we can match using a discount (pick 38).

If you are a non-Carlton club, you have a real conundrum here. If you are a club that holds a pick in the 20s and you bid on Camporeal there are two possible scenarios:
1. Carlton (who have more info than you) think he is worth matching. In which case the other club misses out
2. Carlton (who have more info than you) think he is not worth bidding even though we can match with PICK 38 (ie - a discount).

For any club with a pick in the 20s, to actually GET a Camporeale brother means they have just used a pick in the 20s on a player that an opponent (who have a family connection, and have a lot more info about the player) have avoided even with a discount applied... instant buyers remorse.

It really only makes sense to bid on a Camporeale brother with a pick roughly around our next pick - mid 30s.

But, by this point in the draft, lets also remember that club preferences and player ratings diverge quite highly. Clubs also only have a certain number of picks and list spots, may be targetting certain 'types', and will see players they have scouted heavily slide, etc.

So having established that no-one wants to bid on Camporeale with a pick in the 20s, now its teams in the 30s, but lets now throw some hypotheticals in here (remembering picks will be traded all over the place):

  • pick 31 --> this team is targeting a ruck, saw 2 of the 3 prospects they like go already, and don't want to miss out, so they take a ruck
  • pick 32 --> this team really liked a guy predicted to go in the late teens, but who slid in the draft... they rate him clearly above Camporeale
  • pick 33--> this team is stacked with young midfielders. They aren't going to be able to get Camporeale playing time, and probably want more outside run anyway.
  • pick 34 is a Northern state team. They LOVE Camporeale, but see no point in bidding on a player who has family in SA AND a family connection in Melboure who is a flight risk. There is a decent Queensland prospect sitting right there...
  • pick 35 --> already used this pick to match a F/S bid of their own
  • pick 36 --> this team doesn't really have a list spot free. Crazy, but they've looked at the board, and would rather keep a spot open for a late free agent or rookie upgrade...
  • pick 37 ---> really think hard about bidding on Camporeale. I mean, why not just make Carlton use the points next bid. But, they aren't Dodoro or Silvagni, and in fact, they get on well with the other list managers, and next year they have a couple of academy prospects of their own, and they just decide not to do it...

And suddenly even though every team rates Ben Camporeale somewhere in the 20s, we're getting our pick 38

And the from here, who knows how far he slides. At this stage, EVERY club knows that we're able to match with trash picks, we're getting a bit of a steal -> there's little point bidding at all and wasting everyone's time. Particularly because this is the tricky part of the draft and they've got a lot to think about with their own picks...

It's possible someone really likes Camporeale (ie rates him as close to top 10) and bids at 20. But in a deep draft, it's equally possible that we don't see a bid until the 40s or 50s imo... works out great for us.

Take a more extreme version of that logic and apply to Lucas - he might be rated by everyone as a good prospect, but there's no way anyone bothers bidding imo - he's a very strong chance to get to the rookie draft
Click to expand...

Ok so you could have summarised that we get a 20% discount in the points value index


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
btdg said:
I think it's really about the strategy of drafting though. There is a bunch of advantages that come with F/S over and beyond having the rights to the player themselves

The biggest benefit of F/S and academy imo is how big the information gap between the club and every other club is when it comes to these prospects, combined with having an 'option' to bid on them.

We have seen the Camporeale kids up close, know how they train, how they interact with other members of the club, how they fit within our systems. Other clubs have... some SANFL reserves matches and a handful of games against other Under 18s (I don't think they even did the combine?).

There is a real game theory element to this. Let's say a player like Ben Camporeale is predicted to go somewhere in the 20s and we can match using a discount (pick 38).

If you are a non-Carlton club, you have a real conundrum here. If you are a club that holds a pick in the 20s and you bid on Camporeal there are two possible scenarios:
1. Carlton (who have more info than you) think he is worth matching. In which case the other club misses out
2. Carlton (who have more info than you) think he is not worth bidding even though we can match with PICK 38 (ie - a discount).

For any club with a pick in the 20s, to actually GET a Camporeale brother means they have just used a pick in the 20s on a player that an opponent (who have a family connection, and have a lot more info about the player) have avoided even with a discount applied... instant buyers remorse.

It really only makes sense to bid on a Camporeale brother with a pick roughly around our next pick - mid 30s.

But, by this point in the draft, lets also remember that club preferences and player ratings diverge quite highly. Clubs also only have a certain number of picks and list spots, may be targetting certain 'types', and will see players they have scouted heavily slide, etc.

So having established that no-one wants to bid on Camporeale with a pick in the 20s, now its teams in the 30s, but lets now throw some hypotheticals in here (remembering picks will be traded all over the place):

  • pick 31 --> this team is targeting a ruck, saw 2 of the 3 prospects they like go already, and don't want to miss out, so they take a ruck
  • pick 32 --> this team really liked a guy predicted to go in the late teens, but who slid in the draft... they rate him clearly above Camporeale
  • pick 33--> this team is stacked with young midfielders. They aren't going to be able to get Camporeale playing time, and probably want more outside run anyway.
  • pick 34 is a Northern state team. They LOVE Camporeale, but see no point in bidding on a player who has family in SA AND a family connection in Melboure who is a flight risk. There is a decent Queensland prospect sitting right there...
  • pick 35 --> already used this pick to match a F/S bid of their own
  • pick 36 --> this team doesn't really have a list spot free. Crazy, but they've looked at the board, and would rather keep a spot open for a late free agent or rookie upgrade...
  • pick 37 ---> really think hard about bidding on Camporeale. I mean, why not just make Carlton use the points next bid. But, they aren't Dodoro or Silvagni, and in fact, they get on well with the other list managers, and next year they have a couple of academy prospects of their own, and they just decide not to do it...

And suddenly even though every team rates Ben Camporeale somewhere in the 20s, we're getting our pick 38

And the from here, who knows how far he slides. At this stage, EVERY club knows that we're able to match with trash picks, we're getting a bit of a steal -> there's little point bidding at all and wasting everyone's time. Particularly because this is the tricky part of the draft and they've got a lot to think about with their own picks...

It's possible someone really likes Camporeale (ie rates him as close to top 10) and bids at 20. But in a deep draft, it's equally possible that we don't see a bid until the 40s or 50s imo... works out great for us.

Take a more extreme version of that logic and apply to Lucas - he might be rated by everyone as a good prospect, but there's no way anyone bothers bidding imo - he's a very strong chance to get to the rookie draft
Click to expand...
Brilliant. Thank you
 
Bluechip66 said:
Thx, I get that, & ND is a poor example as he is/ was rated by everyone..
My point is surely if they are any good other teams will pick them ..we then match , but to get to 5he rookie draft?
Click to expand...
Neither will get to the rookie draft. Forget that talk.
We are lucky this is a deep draft in a sense and even luckier that the kids have lost value from their initial draft positions.
My feeling, the boys have been happy knowing they will get drafted to CFC. This might have led to them looking after themselves a little. The little I’ve seen, I like the look of both and with a little growth they will play AFL and they certainly balance each other out and will not have any issues playing in the same side. My opinion from afar.
 
TENACIOUS said:
I don’t have an issue with any of our delistings or trades. None will hurt our list, though Owies, Kennedy & J.Carroll, would have been decent depth.

Think we will cut deeper next year. Also think Hewett will get pushed out of the midfield next year like Kennedy did this year.

It confuses me. After multiple years on the list we know what Durdin offers us, SFA. WTF would we waste a train on spot on him.

It looks like we’ll be taking predominately mids in the draft. I’d hope with our rookie spots, we’d be looking at KP, Small Forward or Mid/Forward depth:

McMahon (VFL)
White (VFL)
Phillips
Culley
Hotton (if delisted)
Lazzaro
Burgeil

Gone cold on DGB, I didn’t realise he was an undersized third tall at 194cm
Click to expand...
Train on spots cost nothing, so having Durdin is not that big of an issue. I can only imagine he is insurance for if any of the others either break down, or don't work out. 194cm is also not undersized. Steven May is 192, Jake Kolodjashnij 195, Sam Taylor 198, Nathan Murphy played at 192 as well
 
TENACIOUS said:
I don’t have an issue with any of our delistings or trades. None will hurt our list, though Owies, Kennedy & J.Carroll, would have been decent depth.

Think we will cut deeper next year. Also think Hewett will get pushed out of the midfield next year like Kennedy did this year.

It confuses me. After multiple years on the list we know what Durdin offers us, SFA. WTF would we waste a train on spot on him.

It looks like we’ll be taking predominately mids in the draft. I’d hope with our rookie spots, we’d be looking at KP, Small Forward or Mid/Forward depth:

McMahon (VFL)
White (VFL)
Phillips
Culley
Hotton (if delisted)
Lazzaro
Burgeil

Gone cold on DGB, I didn’t realise he was an undersized third tall at 194cm
Click to expand...
White would be a great rookie selection imo...this kid can really play. He was ultra impressive in our VFL this year playing as the smaller creative forward. Still only 20yo.

I'd be more than happy to add him and McMahon to our rookie list.
 
kreuze_missile said:
Let me take you back to 2014, the single worst draft/trade/recruitment period by any club in the history of the league.

Traded out Pick 7 & 19 for Kristian Jaksch and Mark Whiley

Pick 19 - Blaine Boekhurst
Pick 28 - Dillon Vojo-Rainbow
Pick 60 - Clem Smith
Pick 63 - Jayden Foster
PSD - Jason Tutt
Rookie draft - Billy Gowers, Brad Walsh, Tom Fields, Fraser Russell
Delisted free agent - Matthew Dick

Only positive was Liam Jones for Pick 46.
Click to expand...
Season 5 Friends Tv Show GIF by Friends
 
kreuze_missile said:
Let me take you back to 2014, the single worst draft/trade/recruitment period by any club in the history of the league.

Traded out Pick 7 & 19 for Kristian Jaksch and Mark Whiley

Pick 19 - Blaine Boekhurst
Pick 28 - Dillon Vojo-Rainbow
Pick 60 - Clem Smith
Pick 63 - Jayden Foster
PSD - Jason Tutt
Rookie draft - Billy Gowers, Brad Walsh, Tom Fields, Fraser Russell
Delisted free agent - Matthew Dick

Only positive was Liam Jones for Pick 46.
Click to expand...
Combined with successive busts with our first pick in the draft …

2009 Pick 12 Kane Lucas
2010 Pick 18 Matthew Watson
2011 Pick 22 Josh Bootsma
2012 Pick 11 Troy Menzel

(Book-ended 2008 with Yarran Pick 6 and 2013 with Cripps Pick 13)

We are better at drafting than we were … but never any guarantees … with the picks he’s had I think Austin is tracking well …

2020 Pick 37 C Durdin (Pick 41 J Carroll)
2021 Pick 27 J Motlop
2022 Pick 11 O Holland (Pick 30 Cowan)
2023 Pick 29 A Moir

I was a believer in SOS and we had a terrible list at the end of Malthouse’s tenure in 2014 … and certainly some successes (2015 with Weitering, Harry and Charlie, and then 2018 with Walsh) and failures notwithstanding the players were highly rated (2016 SPS and 2017 Dow) … and taking TDK at Pick 30 in 2017 was brave at the time and brilliant with hindsight.

What we have trended better at is mainly getting our first pick right and not choosing as many busts later on in the draft.

With thanks to https://www.draftguru.com.au/clubs/carlton
 
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