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I think people take a high draft pick as a given future elite player way way too much for granted- when the evidence over decades suggests it is a goodish bet that the player becomes okish - maybe - if all goes well. Peopel can point to teh high picks that are great - but forget the many more that are total duds.

No draft pick is a given elite player at AFL level.

Club has backed themselves in to draft one that will improve our midfield. It's clear the club has identified this area our biggest weakness... and very rightly so...

I've mentioned this many times... Houston would improve our side, no doubt... but at the same time, he will be just as stifled as our other players with the lack of movement from our midfield. He will end up booting the ball long up the wing as well and he will get away with it because the majority of the time, there are no other options aside from pinpoint passes to team mates who are sandwiched between two or more opponents.

The midfield were one paced, heavily reliant on Cripps, stagnant when we need to bring the ball out of our d50 and very poor at delivering the ball i50...

Houston doesn't do much to address this and a pick outside the top 10 drastically reduces our chances of picking up a kid that will.

This year's draft has been rated as one of the best, if not the best since 2001. And the highest rated players are midfielders. A pick at the top end gives us a great chance at drafting an elite talent that will bolster our midfield for years to come alongside Walker.

There's no doubt we needed to change up our midfield mix and we have done just that. Kennedy as much as I loved the bloke, heart and soul player that would be relied upon to do several jobs including rucking at stages... was also one of the biggest culprits when it comes to being slow and delivering poorly i50. He was hard done by in the ef, but if he was after more mid minutes, then there was just no way we could facilitate that request.

Hewett and Cripps are starting to enter an age where they will begin to decline. Walsh has been sub par playing inside and Cerra was mia this year. If Walsh's back is going to be causing him grief from now on and Cerra's hamstring issues don't go away, where do you see our already weak midfield going in the next few years? And it'll only be compounded by Tassie coming in too...

So yes, it is a massive gamble to rely on a draft pick... but there was no Petracca nominating us was there? So as far as I'm concerned, it was a good move from the club to forget about spending valuable draft capital and packing our salary cap on an aging hbf and instead look to bring in an elite young talent that will address the biggest area of need.

Austin had a lot of guts to take this risk... he's obviously very confident and risks need to be made to go to the next level.
 
5-6 years - $5 million

He’ll get something close to that, be it here, or at another club.
Prob looking at $6-7M over 5yrs from others, mainly STK will be pushing some of their S/C for big name contracts. $1.2 to $1.4M a season…
Big money for a ruckman. Over capitalising.
 
Prob looking at $6-7M over 5yrs from others, mainly STK will be pushing some of their S/C for big name contracts. $1.2 to $1.4M a season…
Big money for a ruckman. Over capitalising.
At what point do the club walk away?

He’s obviously going to get a helluva lot more elsewhere, that is an absolute certainty.

I’d say we’ll tap out at around $900k a year.

In a perfect world we’d get him signed up nice and early. The longer it drags, the more likely it is that he’ll chase the $.
 
TDK has always taken a while to sign contracts. And they have always been short ones. Leads me to believe he will most definetely be a money chaser.

Prove me wrong Tommy…………….
 
At what point do the club walk away?

He’s obviously going to get a helluva lot more elsewhere, that is an absolute certainty.

I’d say we’ll tap out at around $900k a year.

In a perfect world we’d get him signed up nice and early. The longer it drags, the more likely it is that he’ll chase the $.
There will only be 2 clubs for Tom. Geelong and us, and Geelong won’t be offering over a million.

Tom will stay and he will play for under compared to idiotic clubs like the Saints offering huge money. He won’t even consider it
 
TDK has always taken a while to sign contracts. And they have always been short ones. Leads me to believe he will most definetely be a money chaser.

Prove me wrong Tommy…………….

Just about every gun player leaves their FA year open...

Tom and his manager both know this will likely be his biggest opportunity at big money as FA usually falls smack bang in a player's prime.

Can't blame him for wanting to maximise his earnings at this stage of his career because he likely won't be getting as much in future contracts.

Having said that, can't see him leaving to go to a basket case club like the Stains. It's either Geelong to play alongside his bro or stay loyal to Carlton. Both clubs will offer him a similar pay day.
 
if it's personnel, why did it look better when Charlie and McKay weren't in the side? When we only had Kemp as a target, the team showed that if forced, they can find leading targets i50.
Because we were playing a historically bad, young west coast eagles at the tail end of the year. The numerous sudden unknowns couldnt have helped their planning either. Lost to St Kilda with a similar team

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No draft pick is a given elite player at AFL level.

Club has backed themselves in to draft one that will improve our midfield. It's clear the club has identified this area our biggest weakness... and very rightly so...

I've mentioned this many times... Houston would improve our side, no doubt... but at the same time, he will be just as stifled as our other players with the lack of movement from our midfield. He will end up booting the ball long up the wing as well and he will get away with it because the majority of the time, there are no other options aside from pinpoint passes to team mates who are sandwiched between two or more opponents.

The midfield were one paced, heavily reliant on Cripps, stagnant when we need to bring the ball out of our d50 and very poor at delivering the ball i50...

Houston doesn't do much to address this and a pick outside the top 10 drastically reduces our chances of picking up a kid that will.

This year's draft has been rated as one of the best, if not the best since 2001. And the highest rated players are midfielders. A pick at the top end gives us a great chance at drafting an elite talent that will bolster our midfield for years to come alongside Walker.

There's no doubt we needed to change up our midfield mix and we have done just that. Kennedy as much as I loved the bloke, heart and soul player that would be relied upon to do several jobs including rucking at stages... was also one of the biggest culprits when it comes to being slow and delivering poorly i50. He was hard done by in the ef, but if he was after more mid minutes, then there was just no way we could facilitate that request.

Hewett and Cripps are starting to enter an age where they will begin to decline. Walsh has been sub par playing inside and Cerra was mia this year. If Walsh's back is going to be causing him grief from now on and Cerra's hamstring issues don't go away, where do you see our already weak midfield going in the next few years? And it'll only be compounded by Tassie coming in too...

So yes, it is a massive gamble to rely on a draft pick... but there was no Petracca nominating us was there? So as far as I'm concerned, it was a good move from the club to forget about spending valuable draft capital and packing our salary cap on an aging hbf and instead look to bring in an elite young talent that will address the biggest area of need.

Austin had a lot of guts to take this risk... he's obviously very confident and risks need to be made to go to the next level.

The best midfield (on ball) combo I've seen in the last 20 years watching AFL was the Hawthorn mob - not ONE of them was a fast runner. Brains and kicking skill beats a stop watch BS 'athletic' promise every day of the week....on the outside- Acres/Cottrell/Holands are no slower than what Hawthorn had - bt up forward ou HFF and smalls lack any explosive pace...super speed where you want it is in players who are going to find space in dangerous places - and Carlton doesn't have that - Id back Harry MCkay and a fit Curnow to outrun the rest of them over any distance...



I agree with your observations about the lack of targets between the arcs - but I also concluded a long time ago that Carlton is short footy smarts more than anything else- compounded (obviously) by pretty ordinary midfield coaching...

nwo I dont really follow all the armchair discussions on draftee - buy i habve noted that most of the top ranked players arent rated as. great field kicks either..

I do like the idea of adding young blood to teh list - and my strong preference was a two for...go at it...rather than an all in " chosen one" - been there done that...
 

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Prob looking at $6-7M over 5yrs from others, mainly STK will be pushing some of their S/C for big name contracts. $1.2 to $1.4M a season…
Big money for a ruckman. Over capitalising.

Actually now see him as a 200cm mid who can mark, kick goals and win clearances himself. Being able to ruck is simply a bonus. Proper unicorn. The late season Essendon & Geelong games were ridiculous. Pay him what he wants. He’ll be playing All Australian levels these next five years.
 
The best midfield (on ball) combo I've seen in the last 20 years watching AFL was the Hawthorn mob - not ONE of them was a fast runner. Brains and kicking skill beats a stop watch BS 'athletic' promise every day of the week....on the outside- Acres/Cottrell/Holands are no slower than what Hawthorn had - bt up forward ou HFF and smalls lack any explosive pace...super speed where you want it is in players who are going to find space in dangerous places - and Carlton doesn't have that - Id back Harry MCkay and a fit Curnow to outrun the rest of them over any distance...



I agree with your observations about the lack of targets between the arcs - but I also concluded a long time ago that Carlton is short footy smarts more than anything else- compounded (obviously) by pretty ordinary midfield coaching...

nwo I dont really follow all the armchair discussions on draftee - buy i habve noted that most of the top ranked players arent rated as. great field kicks either..

I do like the idea of adding young blood to teh list - and my strong preference was a two for...go at it...rather than an all in " chosen one" - been there done that...
Tend to agree. We have no speed forward of centre. Draper would help with overlap run and burst from stoppage but we need quick, smart small forwards as well. Maybe pick 38 Austin has some ideas…
 
Tend to agree. We have no speed forward of centre. Draper would help with overlap run and burst from stoppage but we need quick, smart small forwards as well. Maybe pick 38 Austin has some ideas…
You either need a hard running midfield or elite half forwards capable of coming up to stoppage to create the overlap. Ideally you have both but atm we have neither.

Draper/FOS/Smith + A couple of hard working half forwards would go a long way to fixing our transition offence and defence issues. Unfortunately it was always going to be impossible to address that all in one off season... But hopefully Durdin and Motlop can find some health and form again next year to bridge that gap.
 
accurate but kemp also lead towards the ball carrier, rther than standing and wrestling and waiting for the high ball.

if we can bring that into the mix, one leading and one or two engaging the body it immediately makes entry into the f50 more dynamic and less obvious
☝️ the way footy should be played 👌
 
Questions got to be asked…

What if Walsh and Cerra don’t fully recover from the back and hammy issues respectively?

Is this partly why we went out to get pick 3…. To use on a good midfielder?
If walsh does not recover, he plays as a wingman. Walsh has lost burst speed not endurance. If Cerra does not recover, try him at half back before he fades off the list
 
Olli Hotton just delisted by the Saints. Was highly touted in his draft year but slid to the 30s. Carlton connection from his dad.

Bar injury, wonder what his issues are? Would he be worth a look as a DFA.

Reading around the traps, it seems a lack of fitness, form and consistency is his issue. Only 2 years in though. Seems a little premature perhaps, but they'd know I guess.
 
If walsh does not recover, he plays as a wingman. Walsh has lost burst speed not endurance. If Cerra does not recover, try him at half back before he fades off the list
We'll have Ollie cotts acres doc and one or both of campo boys as wingers. Adding Walsh also makes it too many maybe 🤔

Ollie to half back perhaps? and doc to retire soon so maybe ok.
 
One issue Hotton has always had is question marks around his position. As a junior he had great traits but wasn't quite a midfielder or a forward. Best case projected as a high half forward that could impact in both areas.

Looks like that continued once in the system. Played 15 games this year but only 20+ touches 4 times and went goaless in his last 10 games.

Still would have expected him to get at least 1 more year.
 

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